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Jeremy Corbyn

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Hoof Hearted 09 May 16 11.01am

Originally posted by Y Ddraig Goch

It was probably an honourable draw. The trouble is that isn't good enough for Labour and the Tories will be slightly happier of the two (though the blue rinse brigade will be having palpatations about the Scottish Conservative Leader)

As for Corbyn being popular, I disagree. Given his landslide victory last year, you would have expected that to translate into more seats in these elections. If anything it illustrates that a relatively gobby few can skew peoples perception of popularity or otherwise.

It's the King's New Clothes all over again.

No one is going to tell Corbyn he has no clothes on.

 

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jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 09 May 16 12.55pm

Originally posted by dannyh

Voting for Cameroon or Corbyn is like trying to choose between going to the dentist or picking up dog s*** for a pass time.

Neither is appealing but one is marginally less a sh1tty pass time, marginally.

Pretty much, and I haven't ever voted for either party, during my lifetime.

Problem is, voting for anyone else, generally is the equivalent of deciding neither dentist, or dogs**t collection, and instead having to watch Flog It followed by Bargain Hunt.

They'll be no democratic changes in the UK without proportional representation. Something neither party will ever agree to, as it would break their hold on the system. It plays more to the Conservatives favour, but they 'get a look in and to wet their beak'.

 


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jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 09 May 16 1.07pm

Originally posted by Willo

Even some of Corbyn's "Chums" in the Labour party pointed out that the party's vote share in key councils, including Nuneaton had fallen sharply adding that since the mid 80s, Opposition parties had always won council seats in England.

In fact former 'Shadow Chancellor' Chris Leslie commented words to the effect that if Corbyn thinks Labour has done well,he would hate to see what badly looks like.

Another Labour MP commented words to the effect that it had been a very disappointing night for Labour.

They didn't do well, but they didn't actually do as badly as was being widely touted and in order to paint them as having done badly, they're creating a story that actually says, he did reasonably ok, as being a disaster.

However, that is based on a false understanding on modern politics. People aren't prone to protest voting for the other side anymore. Greens and UKIP have pretty much filled that role and picked up the protest voters with their issue based politics. As protest votes tend to be influenced by issues rather than broader politics, and these two parties taking big rises, along with the Liberal Democrats recouping some of their own lost protest voters. Labour did ok.

Not well, by no means a success, but ok. Which when you consider the situation, and they did win the London Mayor with a pretty clear victory (they didn't require transfer votes to establish a majority).

All in all, not a disaster or rout, or defeat. Not a victory either, well except in terms of the London Mayor, but its one up from being a police commissioner....

Now, where is that sausage and where is Katie Hopkins....

 


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jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 09 May 16 1.12pm

Originally posted by Hoof Hearted

It's the King's New Clothes all over again.

No one is going to tell Corbyn he has no clothes on.

Probably because Cameron is in the all together (or dressed head to foot in branded sponsored clothing).

The mistake is that one puppet of the elite is somehow better than a different puppet of the elite.

Neither is going to change a thing of substance.

 


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View Willo's Profile Willo Flag South coast - west of Brighton. 09 May 16 1.17pm Send a Private Message to Willo Add Willo as a friend

Originally posted by jamiemartin721

All in all, not a disaster or rout, or defeat. Not a victory either,

Labour's share of the vote was down 6% points on average compared to 2012, the last time these seats were contested under their leadership of 'Ed Miliband'.

Over the 4 decades since the mid 70s, the average Council Election gain in a year without a General Election' has been over 400 seats, yet Labour LOST seats in the recent elections.

At the end of the day if restricting the party's losses to double digits (when history suggests it should have made significant gains), is seen by Labour as having done "OK" or "Hung On" then they are in a very bad place.


Edited by Willo (09 May 2016 1.17pm)

 

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nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 09 May 16 2.10pm

Originally posted by Willo

Labour's share of the vote was down 6% points on average compared to 2012, the last time these seats were contested under their leadership of 'Ed Miliband'.

Over the 4 decades since the mid 70s, the average Council Election gain in a year without a General Election' has been over 400 seats, yet Labour LOST seats in the recent elections.

At the end of the day if restricting the party's losses to double digits (when history suggests it should have made significant gains), is seen by Labour as having done "OK" or "Hung On" then they are in a very bad place.


Edited by Willo (09 May 2016 1.17pm)


Sorry, you'll have to do better than that Willo old son.
How much was the tories share down?

Don't discount that labour were starting from a fairly high watermark, so it's harder to make gains.


As for the average gain of 400 seats... well that's an average, what's the range of that data? How often does both main parties losing seats happen?


Both parties lost to independent candidates standing on local issues. UKIP made gains (in the Welsh assembly, how the f*** did Neil Hamilton ever get elected with the sort of past he has?) as did greens and other minor parties.

Many commentators have said that more people are turning to minority parties.

 

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View Willo's Profile Willo Flag South coast - west of Brighton. 09 May 16 2.23pm Send a Private Message to Willo Add Willo as a friend

Originally posted by nickgusset

Sorry, you'll have to do better than that Willo old son.
How much was the tories share down?

.

I've stated the facts which I can understand are not palatable to Labour supporters.

Regards vote share, at a time when Conservatives are engaged in internal disputes over the EU, have had to revise some of the budget announcements and with a new opposition leader, we would normally expect to be seeing significant losses.Instead we have held our position in England and Wales and made strong progress in Scotland.

Labour's performance was abject.When an opposition party has a new leader, the average gains are over 500 seats.Conservatives even managed to gain over 250 council seats when Blair was at the height of his popularity.Corbyn has gone backwards and suffered losses.

 

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nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 09 May 16 2.48pm

Originally posted by Willo

I've stated the facts which I can understand are not palatable to Labour supporters.

Regards vote share, at a time when Conservatives are engaged in internal disputes over the EU, have had to revise some of the budget announcements and with a new opposition leader, we would normally expect to be seeing significant losses.Instead we have held our position in England and Wales and made strong progress in Scotland.

Labour's performance was abject.When an opposition party has a new leader, the average gains are over 500 seats.Conservatives even managed to gain over 250 council seats when Blair was at the height of his popularity.Corbyn has gone backwards and suffered losses.

It's gone up by 100 now!
Are we talking mean, median or mode here?
Is your understanding of average the same as the tory mp who said they wanted all schools to be better than average?

Edited by nickgusset (09 May 2016 2.50pm)

 

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View Willo's Profile Willo Flag South coast - west of Brighton. 09 May 16 3.06pm Send a Private Message to Willo Add Willo as a friend

Originally posted by nickgusset


It's gone up by 100 now!
Are we talking mean, median or mode here?
Is your understanding of average the same as the tory mp who said they wanted all schools to be better than average?

Edited by nickgusset (09 May 2016 2.50pm)

I of all people understand the concept of "Average" mean/medium/mode - I shall keep my 'Counsel' regards the reason !

Once can go into finite detail about specifics but the fact remains that Labour have not made the gains they should have for the reasons I explained.

Edited by Willo (09 May 2016 3.09pm)

 

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jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 09 May 16 3.23pm

Originally posted by Willo

I've stated the facts which I can understand are not palatable to Labour supporters.

Regards vote share, at a time when Conservatives are engaged in internal disputes over the EU, have had to revise some of the budget announcements and with a new opposition leader, we would normally expect to be seeing significant losses.Instead we have held our position in England and Wales and made strong progress in Scotland.

Labour's performance was abject.When an opposition party has a new leader, the average gains are over 500 seats.Conservatives even managed to gain over 250 council seats when Blair was at the height of his popularity.Corbyn has gone backwards and suffered losses.

Actually both the Conservatives and Labour party showed pretty much a 'hanging on'. Where as the real winners were UKIP, Greens and Liberal democrats.

The problem is that you're focused on an era where protest votes against government went to the opposition, which historically was true. However the last election saw protest votes go to UKIP

Arguably, to me, this suggests that Labour aren't really seen in terms of being the opposition, but that mantle belongs to the Lib Dems, Greens and UKIP.

Its increasingly less of a two horse system. The problem is that whilst Labour and Conservatives spend all their effort sniping at one another, the 'excluded' 25-30% of voters, who returned two seats, are increasingly making gains.

Its a victory really for UKIP and the Liberal Democrats, as unfashionable as that is to say. Greens were a concern down three seats.

 


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View dannyh's Profile dannyh Flag wherever I lay my hat....... 09 May 16 3.29pm Send a Private Message to dannyh Add dannyh as a friend

Originally posted by nickgusset


Sorry, you'll have to do better than that Willo old son.
How much was the tories share down?

Don't discount that labour were starting from a fairly high watermark, so it's harder to make gains.


As for the average gain of 400 seats... well that's an average, what's the range of that data? How often does both main parties losing seats happen?


Both parties lost to independent candidates standing on local issues. UKIP made gains (in the Welsh assembly, how the f*** did Neil Hamilton ever get elected with the sort of past he has?) as did greens and other minor parties.

Many commentators have said that more people are turning to minority parties.

Nick straight questions, requiring straight answers.

Do you like him YES/NO ?

Can he win labour an Election YES/NO ?

 


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jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 09 May 16 3.30pm

Originally posted by Willo

I of all people understand the concept of "Average" mean/medium/mode - I shall keep my 'Counsel' regards the reason !

Once can go into finite detail about specifics but the fact remains that Labour have not made the gains they should have for the reasons I explained.

Edited by Willo (09 May 2016 3.09pm)

I get where you are coming from, but the losses of the conservatives to the liberal democrats and UKIP make more sense in the new perspective of changes in recent politics.

Labour definitely should have done better, but can at least take comfort in the fact they didn't suffer badly and the Conservatives can state happily that they didn't to badly at all, against their prediction.

The difference, I think, is that the last election saw a very different break down of how people voted within constituencies (if not in terms of seats one), that showed that UKIP and the Greens have become notable in winning seats off of Conservatives and Labour.

These days, UKIP, Greens, Lib Dems and SNP have all really established themselves as opposition, rather than Labour / Conservative. Hence Labour being beaten into third place in Scotland, because the SNP there beat Labour by being a more 'left wing' option than Labour.

 


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