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High immigration levels prevent 'cohesive society'

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View serial thriller's Profile serial thriller Flag The Promised Land 07 Oct 15 11.00am Send a Private Message to serial thriller Add serial thriller as a friend

Quote mezzer at 07 Oct 2015 10.34am

I've had 100-1 with Paddy Power the next election is won by a party that doesn't exist yet.

Disaffected Lib Dems and disaffected Labour will create SDP 2 and claim the centre left ground and woo those who can't bring themselves to vote for Corbyn, Conservatives or UKIP. Politicians depend on power to survive. Lots of recent MPs are struggling for oxygen at the moment and have no route back as things stand.

Mark my words. 100-1? Like buying money.....


The centre left haven't won anything in a decade in this country, in fact across Europe it's barely had a victory since the crash. The third way is dead. Should've bought some crisps mate.

 


If punk ever happened I'd be preaching the law, instead of listenin to Lydon lecture BBC4

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View serial thriller's Profile serial thriller Flag The Promised Land 07 Oct 15 11.13am Send a Private Message to serial thriller Add serial thriller as a friend

Quote Hoof Hearted at 07 Oct 2015 10.09am

Quote serial thriller at 06 Oct 2015 9.29pm


This is why the success of Corbyn (closing the gap on the Tories' lead ever since he got in to office) is really not that surprising.


Lets put things into perspective shall we?

The Tory lead over Labour in May was some 2.5 Million votes.

Corbyn has attracted a few thousand politically motivated people to stump up £3 to join his party.

Come May 2020 the election won't be decided by which party has the greatest paid up membership, it will be decided by votes from people that are not formally affiliated to any party.

Since Corbyn seems less credible on the economy than Miliband/Balls was it seems clear to me and many others that Labour will not be elected.


I think the clearest parallel to the Corbyn campaign is the Obama campaign in 08. Like Corbyn, he ran on a crowdfunded, volunteer-heavy basis, with thousands of young and active people canvassing, leafleting and the like. With the changes made in the constituency boundaries, even if Corbyn managed to sway a million or so who voted tory at the last election, he'd be crushed. The only way he has of winning is to up voter turn out by about 5/6%, win over people who feel disenfranchised with the political system, just like Obama did in 08.

There are, as Jamie says, 4 and a half years to go until the election. That's 4 and a half years of more cuts, 4 and a half more years of Tory infighting over Europe/the new leader, and potentially 4 and a half more years of this swelling of Labour party members (and no, not the £3 kind any more) who would be crucial if Corbyn is to increase voter turn out. I'm not saying he's gonna win - it's still an incredibly long way to go - but to write him off at this stage given these factors? Foolish IMO.

 


If punk ever happened I'd be preaching the law, instead of listenin to Lydon lecture BBC4

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View mezzer's Profile mezzer Flag Main Stand, Block F, Row 20 seat 1... 07 Oct 15 11.16am Send a Private Message to mezzer Add mezzer as a friend

Quote serial thriller at 07 Oct 2015 11.00am

Quote mezzer at 07 Oct 2015 10.34am

I've had 100-1 with Paddy Power the next election is won by a party that doesn't exist yet.

Disaffected Lib Dems and disaffected Labour will create SDP 2 and claim the centre left ground and woo those who can't bring themselves to vote for Corbyn, Conservatives or UKIP. Politicians depend on power to survive. Lots of recent MPs are struggling for oxygen at the moment and have no route back as things stand.

Mark my words. 100-1? Like buying money.....


The centre left haven't won anything in a decade in this country, in fact across Europe it's barely had a victory since the crash. The third way is dead. Should've bought some crisps mate.

Extremism on either side will be on the wane in 5 years time. Apart from Greece, the anti-austerity parties are losing traction as their economy recovers from its depths. Here, although it's vulgar to mention, since the crash if you weren't in debt, had and kept a job, and with interest rates staying where
they are for the foreseeable with little or declining inflation, you've never had so much disposable income in your life.

Which is why restaurants are full, luxury goods are best selling, new car sales have never been higher, airlines are raking it in as people travel regularly and further, and hotels are able to charge pretty well what they like for rooms. It's just that not everyone's experienced that and the divide between the haves and have nots has got wider.

And why the silent majority returned the party that they saw responsible for setting this scene earlier in the year.

You're right about the crisps though mate.

 


Living down here does have some advantages. At least you can see them cry.

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Hoof Hearted 07 Oct 15 11.22am

Quote serial thriller at 07 Oct 2015 11.13am

Quote Hoof Hearted at 07 Oct 2015 10.09am

Quote serial thriller at 06 Oct 2015 9.29pm


This is why the success of Corbyn (closing the gap on the Tories' lead ever since he got in to office) is really not that surprising.


Lets put things into perspective shall we?

The Tory lead over Labour in May was some 2.5 Million votes.

Corbyn has attracted a few thousand politically motivated people to stump up £3 to join his party.

Come May 2020 the election won't be decided by which party has the greatest paid up membership, it will be decided by votes from people that are not formally affiliated to any party.

Since Corbyn seems less credible on the economy than Miliband/Balls was it seems clear to me and many others that Labour will not be elected.


I think the clearest parallel to the Corbyn campaign is the Obama campaign in 08. Like Corbyn, he ran on a crowdfunded, volunteer-heavy basis, with thousands of young and active people canvassing, leafleting and the like. With the changes made in the constituency boundaries, even if Corbyn managed to sway a million or so who voted tory at the last election, he'd be crushed. The only way he has of winning is to up voter turn out by about 5/6%, win over people who feel disenfranchised with the political system, just like Obama did in 08.

There are, as Jamie says, 4 and a half years to go until the election. That's 4 and a half years of more cuts, 4 and a half more years of Tory infighting over Europe/the new leader, and potentially 4 and a half more years of this swelling of Labour party members (and no, not the £3 kind any more) who would be crucial if Corbyn is to increase voter turn out. I'm not saying he's gonna win - it's still an incredibly long way to go - but to write him off at this stage given these factors? Foolish IMO.


As everyone seems to be making predictions/bets....

I'll bet Corbyn is still wearing the same jacket in 2020 and will be a backbencher.

 

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View serial thriller's Profile serial thriller Flag The Promised Land 07 Oct 15 11.32am Send a Private Message to serial thriller Add serial thriller as a friend

Quote mezzer at 07 Oct 2015 11.16am

Quote serial thriller at 07 Oct 2015 11.00am

Quote mezzer at 07 Oct 2015 10.34am

I've had 100-1 with Paddy Power the next election is won by a party that doesn't exist yet.

Disaffected Lib Dems and disaffected Labour will create SDP 2 and claim the centre left ground and woo those who can't bring themselves to vote for Corbyn, Conservatives or UKIP. Politicians depend on power to survive. Lots of recent MPs are struggling for oxygen at the moment and have no route back as things stand.

Mark my words. 100-1? Like buying money.....


The centre left haven't won anything in a decade in this country, in fact across Europe it's barely had a victory since the crash. The third way is dead. Should've bought some crisps mate.

Extremism on either side will be on the wane in 5 years time. Apart from Greece, the anti-austerity parties are losing traction as their economy recovers from its depths. Here, although it's vulgar to mention, since the crash if you weren't in debt, had and kept a job, and with interest rates staying where
they are for the foreseeable with little or declining inflation, you've never had so much disposable income in your life.

Which is why restaurants are full, luxury goods are best selling, new car sales have never been higher, airlines are raking it in as people travel regularly and further, and hotels are able to charge pretty well what they like for rooms. It's just that not everyone's experienced that and the divide between the haves and have nots has got wider.

And why the silent majority returned the party that they saw responsible for setting this scene earlier in the year.

You're right about the crisps though mate.


I think you have a very interesting take on social progression in the past few years, although I disagree with you, particularly on this point. Wages in real terms have fallen faster in the past 5 years than at any point in the past 50. Yes, the upper middle class in this country haven't been affected too badly, mainly because as you say you have interest rates at an all time low. But they will have to go up, probably at some point in the next 18 months, and that will have an enormous effect on the housing market, especially on those in rented accommodation (who by 2020 will outweigh those who own their own homes).

I also just don't see how you can claim that 'extremism' (although personally I think Corbyn's keynesian social democratic offer is hardly extreme) will just go away. Across the western world there is no sign of it slowing up, look at the two leading candidates for the presidential race in America, the Front national in France, the Catalonian independents sweeping the board in the regional elections in Spain etc etc etc. By 2020 you'll have a couple of million more youngsters, the majority of whom will, like the current generation, be fed up of being told they will be worse off than their parents, because of a deficit they played no part in creating.

One final point on the centre-left. Liz Kendall got 4.5% of the vote in the Labour leadership contest, and this supposed surge in support for the Lib Dems since Corbyn won has been invisible. Why? Because there is absolutely no coherent narrative for them to push, and there hasn't been since the crash. What was Milliband's economic plan? In fact can anyone actually name one distinctive policy that the Lib Dems have? That's why I just can't see your prediction coming true, I just have no idea what a new SDP would stand for.

 


If punk ever happened I'd be preaching the law, instead of listenin to Lydon lecture BBC4

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Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards View Hrolf The Ganger's Profile Hrolf The Ganger Flag 07 Oct 15 11.36am Send a Private Message to Hrolf The Ganger Add Hrolf The Ganger as a friend

Oh let them have their little delusion.

Going home to Harold Wilson wall posters and Tony Benn coffee mugs must get a little depressing after all these years.

 

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View dannyh's Profile dannyh Flag wherever I lay my hat....... 07 Oct 15 11.43am Send a Private Message to dannyh Add dannyh as a friend

Makes me giggle how some on here just expect high levels of Immigration to have no effect at all.

Multicultralism only works if all cultures are accepting of the other and will make allowances for one another.

THAT IS NOT HAPPENING.

Regardless of what side of the fence you sit, that can not be ignored.

Sorry to use a football analogy but, if you have a team with a great team ethos works well etc etc, then you start introducing new unfamilier players with different ways of doing things to fast and to many at once, the team falls apart, you lose the dressing room, and things do not go well from there on in.

However if you introduce the changes slowly, teach both new and old the new way of things they come together to improve and be a better team. Much like the lord our Pards has done, however this does rely on people buying what he is selling.

At the moment to many people are pissed off at there own lot in life, to be arsed about being accepting of someone else's problems, espeicially if the perecption is the new "players" are getting treated better than the older ones.

 


"It's not the bullet that's got my name on it that concerns me; it's all them other ones flyin' around marked 'To Whom It May Concern.'"

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View mezzer's Profile mezzer Flag Main Stand, Block F, Row 20 seat 1... 07 Oct 15 11.50am Send a Private Message to mezzer Add mezzer as a friend

Quote serial thriller at 07 Oct 2015 11.32am

Quote mezzer at 07 Oct 2015 11.16am

Quote serial thriller at 07 Oct 2015 11.00am

Quote mezzer at 07 Oct 2015 10.34am

I've had 100-1 with Paddy Power the next election is won by a party that doesn't exist yet.

Disaffected Lib Dems and disaffected Labour will create SDP 2 and claim the centre left ground and woo those who can't bring themselves to vote for Corbyn, Conservatives or UKIP. Politicians depend on power to survive. Lots of recent MPs are struggling for oxygen at the moment and have no route back as things stand.

Mark my words. 100-1? Like buying money.....


The centre left haven't won anything in a decade in this country, in fact across Europe it's barely had a victory since the crash. The third way is dead. Should've bought some crisps mate.

Extremism on either side will be on the wane in 5 years time. Apart from Greece, the anti-austerity parties are losing traction as their economy recovers from its depths. Here, although it's vulgar to mention, since the crash if you weren't in debt, had and kept a job, and with interest rates staying where
they are for the foreseeable with little or declining inflation, you've never had so much disposable income in your life.

Which is why restaurants are full, luxury goods are best selling, new car sales have never been higher, airlines are raking it in as people travel regularly and further, and hotels are able to charge pretty well what they like for rooms. It's just that not everyone's experienced that and the divide between the haves and have nots has got wider.

And why the silent majority returned the party that they saw responsible for setting this scene earlier in the year.

You're right about the crisps though mate.


I think you have a very interesting take on social progression in the past few years, although I disagree with you, particularly on this point. Wages in real terms have fallen faster in the past 5 years than at any point in the past 50. Yes, the upper middle class in this country haven't been affected too badly, mainly because as you say you have interest rates at an all time low. But they will have to go up, probably at some point in the next 18 months, and that will have an enormous effect on the housing market, especially on those in rented accommodation (who by 2020 will outweigh those who own their own homes).

I also just don't see how you can claim that 'extremism' (although personally I think Corbyn's keynesian social democratic offer is hardly extreme) will just go away. Across the western world there is no sign of it slowing up, look at the two leading candidates for the presidential race in America, the Front national in France, the Catalonian independents sweeping the board in the regional elections in Spain etc etc etc. By 2020 you'll have a couple of million more youngsters, the majority of whom will, like the current generation, be fed up of being told they will be worse off than their parents, because of a deficit they played no part in creating.

One final point on the centre-left. Liz Kendall got 4.5% of the vote in the Labour leadership contest, and this supposed surge in support for the Lib Dems since Corbyn won has been invisible. Why? Because there is absolutely no coherent narrative for them to push, and there hasn't been since the crash. What was Milliband's economic plan? In fact can anyone actually name one distinctive policy that the Lib Dems have? That's why I just can't see your prediction coming true, I just have no idea what a new SDP would stand for.


This has been forecast for about 5 years now. Everyone of a certain age (and those who have studied economics and theories written by people of a certain age) see the period between the start of the 80s and 2008 as the norm. It wasn't, it was freak period fuelled by the biggest credit boom in history which will not be repeated. Everything went up - rates, prices, wages, inflation - but we have now entered a deflationary era akin to Japan whose own deflationary era began in 1979 and is still going on today.

we are in the early stages of a new normal. This is why rates didn't go up in the States as the majority expected in September and why, if they do go up, they'll come back down again pretty quickly as they did in Sweden, Australia and Norway.

I'm not for one moment suggesting that extremism will go away. It never does. And it increases from time to time as dissatisfaction fluctuates. But it won't take hold in sufficient numbers to change government and the Europe will continue to revolve around its centre to left or right axis for years to come.

My 100-1 says it'll swing to the left next time.

And it's not 100-1 for nothing.

 


Living down here does have some advantages. At least you can see them cry.

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jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 07 Oct 15 12.11pm

Quote SwalecliffeEagle at 07 Oct 2015 9.52am

Quote jamiemartin721 at 07 Oct 2015 9.43am

Quote Hrolf The Ganger at 07 Oct 2015 9.21am

This country has bent over backward to make immigrants welcome. The voices of discontent have grown louder recently and that is hardly surprising given the circumstances, but how much effort does the average Muslim make to blend in with our society ?
I don't wish to demonise all Muslims but when moving to a new country the onus is on you to fit in.

We frown on Brits who move to France and Spain and create little Englands but for some reason some struggle to apply the same scrutiny when the boot is on the other foot.

In my experience they generally seem to get jobs, pay tax, open business and do all the general things that most families seem to do. In my experience as well the UK's had a traditional response to migrants over my life time, and that's been racism and prejudice, admittedly by a minority. But if you're going to damn Muslims by those who actively act against the UK, you should judge the UK response to migrants by the minority as well.

Yes, there are bad Muslims in the UK, there are terrible people in every ethnic group, many of whom desire power and influence over others and see hate as a means of achieving that.

That is by no means a unique Muslim phenomena.


I often find myself agreeing with many of your points, but this is not your finest hour. What on earth are you talking about?

One of my closest and dearest friends is Indian, we've been friends for 25 years, and as a result I've known his family, friends etc quite well, and all of them have experienced threats and insults hurled at them by whites over the years. Similarly, people I've known who are Muslim. And its not just their say so, I've been there when people have started on him because he is Indian in bars and clubs.

Now it could just be a local thing, but I doubt it. I've know people who are quite racist and open about it over my life time, that goes beyond just the **** joke here and there. We as a nation, are not as accommodating as we like to think. There are plenty of s**ts who are happy to give abuse, vandalise property and attack people because of their skin colour. We just accept them as not being 'indicative' of the nation.

Thing is we look at the minority of c**ts in Islam and paint the majority by association, but we then excuse our own 'race group', because its just a 'minority'.


 


"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug"
[Link]

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jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 07 Oct 15 12.14pm

Quote mezzer at 07 Oct 2015 10.34am

I've had 100-1 with Paddy Power the next election is won by a party that doesn't exist yet.

Disaffected Lib Dems and disaffected Labour will create SDP 2 and claim the centre left ground and woo those who can't bring themselves to vote for Corbyn, Conservatives or UKIP. Politicians depend on power to survive. Lots of recent MPs are struggling for oxygen at the moment and have no route back as things stand.

Mark my words. 100-1? Like buying money.....

Not a chance, only two Parties have ever won it since the war, and its a rigged system. When Labour win they adjust constituency boundaries to give them an advantage, when Conservatives win they adjust them their favour.

The only chance an party other than Labour or Conservative have of winning an election is if proportional representation was introduced.

You should have got odds closer to 10,000 to 1.


 


"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug"
[Link]

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Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards View Hrolf The Ganger's Profile Hrolf The Ganger Flag 07 Oct 15 1.43pm Send a Private Message to Hrolf The Ganger Add Hrolf The Ganger as a friend

Quote jamiemartin721 at 07 Oct 2015 12.11pm

Quote SwalecliffeEagle at 07 Oct 2015 9.52am

Quote jamiemartin721 at 07 Oct 2015 9.43am

Quote Hrolf The Ganger at 07 Oct 2015 9.21am

This country has bent over backward to make immigrants welcome. The voices of discontent have grown louder recently and that is hardly surprising given the circumstances, but how much effort does the average Muslim make to blend in with our society ?
I don't wish to demonise all Muslims but when moving to a new country the onus is on you to fit in.

We frown on Brits who move to France and Spain and create little Englands but for some reason some struggle to apply the same scrutiny when the boot is on the other foot.

In my experience they generally seem to get jobs, pay tax, open business and do all the general things that most families seem to do. In my experience as well the UK's had a traditional response to migrants over my life time, and that's been racism and prejudice, admittedly by a minority. But if you're going to damn Muslims by those who actively act against the UK, you should judge the UK response to migrants by the minority as well.

Yes, there are bad Muslims in the UK, there are terrible people in every ethnic group, many of whom desire power and influence over others and see hate as a means of achieving that.

That is by no means a unique Muslim phenomena.


I often find myself agreeing with many of your points, but this is not your finest hour. What on earth are you talking about?

One of my closest and dearest friends is Indian, we've been friends for 25 years, and as a result I've known his family, friends etc quite well, and all of them have experienced threats and insults hurled at them by whites over the years. Similarly, people I've known who are Muslim. And its not just their say so, I've been there when people have started on him because he is Indian in bars and clubs.

Now it could just be a local thing, but I doubt it. I've know people who are quite racist and open about it over my life time, that goes beyond just the **** joke here and there. We as a nation, are not as accommodating as we like to think. There are plenty of s**ts who are happy to give abuse, vandalise property and attack people because of their skin colour. We just accept them as not being 'indicative' of the nation.

Thing is we look at the minority of c**ts in Islam and paint the majority by association, but we then excuse our own 'race group', because its just a 'minority'.



Isn't this a contradiction ?

You have just done to the British what you claim we do to others. Judging the many by a few.

Having a go at people because they are different is a universal theme among humans. Not just for their race but for a whole lot of other things. Like I said previously, it's all relative.

Britain is way down the list for prejudice and is appealing to migrants in a number of ways. This is born out by how many people want to come here as opposed to other nearer countries.

 

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jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 07 Oct 15 2.21pm

Quote Hrolf The Ganger at 07 Oct 2015 1.43pm

Quote jamiemartin721 at 07 Oct 2015 12.11pm

Quote SwalecliffeEagle at 07 Oct 2015 9.52am

Quote jamiemartin721 at 07 Oct 2015 9.43am

Quote Hrolf The Ganger at 07 Oct 2015 9.21am

This country has bent over backward to make immigrants welcome. The voices of discontent have grown louder recently and that is hardly surprising given the circumstances, but how much effort does the average Muslim make to blend in with our society ?
I don't wish to demonise all Muslims but when moving to a new country the onus is on you to fit in.

We frown on Brits who move to France and Spain and create little Englands but for some reason some struggle to apply the same scrutiny when the boot is on the other foot.

In my experience they generally seem to get jobs, pay tax, open business and do all the general things that most families seem to do. In my experience as well the UK's had a traditional response to migrants over my life time, and that's been racism and prejudice, admittedly by a minority. But if you're going to damn Muslims by those who actively act against the UK, you should judge the UK response to migrants by the minority as well.

Yes, there are bad Muslims in the UK, there are terrible people in every ethnic group, many of whom desire power and influence over others and see hate as a means of achieving that.

That is by no means a unique Muslim phenomena.


I often find myself agreeing with many of your points, but this is not your finest hour. What on earth are you talking about?

One of my closest and dearest friends is Indian, we've been friends for 25 years, and as a result I've known his family, friends etc quite well, and all of them have experienced threats and insults hurled at them by whites over the years. Similarly, people I've known who are Muslim. And its not just their say so, I've been there when people have started on him because he is Indian in bars and clubs.

Now it could just be a local thing, but I doubt it. I've know people who are quite racist and open about it over my life time, that goes beyond just the **** joke here and there. We as a nation, are not as accommodating as we like to think. There are plenty of s**ts who are happy to give abuse, vandalise property and attack people because of their skin colour. We just accept them as not being 'indicative' of the nation.

Thing is we look at the minority of c**ts in Islam and paint the majority by association, but we then excuse our own 'race group', because its just a 'minority'.



Isn't this a contradiction ?

You have just done to the British what you claim we do to others. Judging the many by a few.

Having a go at people because they are different is a universal theme among humans. Not just for their race but for a whole lot of other things. Like I said previously, it's all relative.

Britain is way down the list for prejudice and is appealing to migrants in a number of ways. This is born out by how many people want to come here as opposed to other nearer countries.

Yes it is, but its also my experience. It may or may not be true, but it generally seems that in the UK you're far more likely to be on the end of some proper old fashioned racist hate and violence if your not white and from whites. That's not to say that there isn't anti-white prejudice, hate and violence and that isn't in itself a crime or serious problem.

But we don't judge everyone who's white by that standard, yet we'll happily demonise a minority by the same standard.

By the same standard that Muslims are terrorists, then also white British people are racists. Even though both statements are entirely untrue and lack any real basis, its become the mentality of the UK and Media to try to simplify everything down to a simple cause and effect.


 


"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug"
[Link]

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