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View beagle's Profile beagle Flag pom tiddly om pom pom 18 Jan 16 8.51am Send a Private Message to beagle Add beagle as a friend

I know there are some keen economy/finance watchers on here, so could someone explain why the FTSE is higher today (Monday).

The reason I ask is the Middle East share markets went into panic over Iran entering the oil markets, CHina is down, doom and gloom abounds..all the weekend stories were negative.

I went onto the reuters website last night and they said that spreadbetters reckoned the FTSE would start higher this morning. 'Idiots' I thought as I, in my ignorance, expected Monday to be a FTSE freefall.

But at the moment its not. So why would the FTSE be in a positive mode this morning? What am I missing?
I

 


When the time comes, I want die just like my Dad - at peace and asleep.
Not screaming and terrified.
Like his passengers.

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View mezzer's Profile mezzer Flag Main Stand, Block F, Row 20 seat 1... 18 Jan 16 9.12am Send a Private Message to mezzer Add mezzer as a friend

All the things you mention about the weekend were already accounted for in the level at close on Friday. Nothing new came out over the weekend so, after a bad few weeks, it has twitched up a bit as some people (institutions) buy on the dips. The markets anticipate rather than react most of the time.

Having said that, I wouldn't be rushing to buy in just yet. I think this is the year that the world wakes up to the fact that there isn't any central banks to help this time round, so as the global economy slows (which it is) there will have to be a readjustment from the markets to what everything is actually worth right now.

The commodities and emerging markets still have their capitulation phase to go through yet and there will be at least one BIG name in the energy or mining sectors that will go under, causing a "blimey, thought they were too big to fail..who's next" type of reaction in markets in general.

We've had an 8 year bull market. We're due a bear (down 20%) and I think it's knocking on the door now.

That's my take, anyway.

 


Living down here does have some advantages. At least you can see them cry.

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View beagle's Profile beagle Flag pom tiddly om pom pom 18 Jan 16 9.28am Send a Private Message to beagle Add beagle as a friend

Makes sense now you mention it!

Thanks

 


When the time comes, I want die just like my Dad - at peace and asleep.
Not screaming and terrified.
Like his passengers.

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Hoof Hearted 18 Jan 16 11.05am

I got this "market commentary" this morning.....

Be interested in your thoughts about his views mezzer?

 

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View Monty the Eagle's Profile Monty the Eagle Flag Lima 18 Jan 16 11.05am Send a Private Message to Monty the Eagle Add Monty the Eagle as a friend

Quote mezzer at 18 Jan 2016 9.12am

All the things you mention about the weekend were already accounted for in the level at close on Friday. Nothing new came out over the weekend so, after a bad few weeks, it has twitched up a bit as some people (institutions) buy on the dips. The markets anticipate rather than react most of the time.

Having said that, I wouldn't be rushing to buy in just yet. I think this is the year that the world wakes up to the fact that there isn't any central banks to help this time round, so as the global economy slows (which it is) there will have to be a readjustment from the markets to what everything is actually worth right now.

The commodities and emerging markets still have their capitulation phase to go through yet and there will be at least one BIG name in the energy or mining sectors that will go under, causing a "blimey, thought they were too big to fail..who's next" type of reaction in markets in general.

We've had an 8 year bull market. We're due a bear (down 20%) and I think it's knocking on the door now.

That's my take, anyway.

Seeing as the mining sector fell by between 50-80% last year you would hope they are nearing the bottom!

 

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View mezzer's Profile mezzer Flag Main Stand, Block F, Row 20 seat 1... 18 Jan 16 12.08pm Send a Private Message to mezzer Add mezzer as a friend

Quote Hoof Hearted at 18 Jan 2016 11.05am

I got this "market commentary" this morning.....

Be interested in your thoughts about his views mezzer?

In short, Hoof, Mr Mental makes pretty sound comments and I agree we could get a short term bounce. However, I think we've got a major event to come at some point this year - not exactly like 2008 as I don't think it will be a systemic threat - which will see a lurch downwards to mark the capitulation stage.

I like to keep things as simple as possible. What's the chances of markets rising 10% in the next three months? Pretty low. What's the chance of a 10% fall in the same period? Quite possible. So best stay defensive.

One of the main problems is that everyone needs to adjust to the new normal (deflationary, low growth). It won't look like what most people still see as normal - the freak period between 1980s and 2008 fuelled by unlimited credit - and the adjustment will cause bouts of volatility. Trackers won't work so well in this environment and there'll be a lot of people left scratching their heads as to why their cheap passive investment option isn't giving them any long term gains.


 


Living down here does have some advantages. At least you can see them cry.

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View mezzer's Profile mezzer Flag Main Stand, Block F, Row 20 seat 1... 18 Jan 16 12.09pm Send a Private Message to mezzer Add mezzer as a friend

Quote Monty the Eagle at 18 Jan 2016 11.05am

Quote mezzer at 18 Jan 2016 9.12am

All the things you mention about the weekend were already accounted for in the level at close on Friday. Nothing new came out over the weekend so, after a bad few weeks, it has twitched up a bit as some people (institutions) buy on the dips. The markets anticipate rather than react most of the time.

Having said that, I wouldn't be rushing to buy in just yet. I think this is the year that the world wakes up to the fact that there isn't any central banks to help this time round, so as the global economy slows (which it is) there will have to be a readjustment from the markets to what everything is actually worth right now.

The commodities and emerging markets still have their capitulation phase to go through yet and there will be at least one BIG name in the energy or mining sectors that will go under, causing a "blimey, thought they were too big to fail..who's next" type of reaction in markets in general.

We've had an 8 year bull market. We're due a bear (down 20%) and I think it's knocking on the door now.

That's my take, anyway.

Seeing as the mining sector fell by between 50-80% last year you would hope they are nearing the bottom!

They're a lot nearer the bottom than they were! Another 20% from here should do it.

 


Living down here does have some advantages. At least you can see them cry.

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View nairb75's Profile nairb75 Flag Baltimore 18 Jan 16 3.15pm Send a Private Message to nairb75 Add nairb75 as a friend

waiting until about summer time. we'll see. going to be buying at great prices. great opp to make some real money this year as long as you can wait a bit for the return.

 

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View -TUX-'s Profile -TUX- Flag Alphabettispaghetti 18 Jan 16 7.01pm Send a Private Message to -TUX- Add -TUX- as a friend

Quote nairb75 at 18 Jan 2016 3.15pm

waiting until about summer time. we'll see. going to be buying at great prices. great opp to make some real money this year as long as you can wait a bit for the return.


Wait a bit longer.

Edit: A lot longer.

Edited by -TUX- (18 Jan 2016 7.31pm)

 


Time to move forward together.

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pefwin Flag Where you have to have an English ... 18 Jan 16 8.06pm

Quote -TUX- at 18 Jan 2016 7.01pm

Quote nairb75 at 18 Jan 2016 3.15pm

waiting until about summer time. we'll see. going to be buying at great prices. great opp to make some real money this year as long as you can wait a bit for the return.


Wait a bit longer.

Edit: A lot longer.

Edited by -TUX- (18 Jan 2016 7.31pm)

+1

 


"Everything is air-droppable at least once."

"When the going gets tough, the tough call for close air support."

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View nairb75's Profile nairb75 Flag Baltimore 19 Jan 16 3.22pm Send a Private Message to nairb75 Add nairb75 as a friend

Quote -TUX- at 18 Jan 2016 7.01pm

Quote nairb75 at 18 Jan 2016 3.15pm

waiting until about summer time. we'll see. going to be buying at great prices. great opp to make some real money this year as long as you can wait a bit for the return.


Wait a bit longer.

Edit: A lot longer.

Edited by -TUX- (18 Jan 2016 7.31pm)

clarifying: waiting until AT LEAST summer. you're overall probably will be longer.

 

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Hoof Hearted 19 Jan 16 4.32pm

Quote mezzer at 18 Jan 2016 12.08pm

Quote Hoof Hearted at 18 Jan 2016 11.05am

I got this "market commentary" this morning.....

Be interested in your thoughts about his views mezzer?

In short, Hoof, Mr Mental makes pretty sound comments and I agree we could get a short term bounce. However, I think we've got a major event to come at some point this year - not exactly like 2008 as I don't think it will be a systemic threat - which will see a lurch downwards to mark the capitulation stage.

I like to keep things as simple as possible. What's the chances of markets rising 10% in the next three months? Pretty low. What's the chance of a 10% fall in the same period? Quite possible. So best stay defensive.

One of the main problems is that everyone needs to adjust to the new normal (deflationary, low growth). It won't look like what most people still see as normal - the freak period between 1980s and 2008 fuelled by unlimited credit - and the adjustment will cause bouts of volatility. Trackers won't work so well in this environment and there'll be a lot of people left scratching their heads as to why their cheap passive investment option isn't giving them any long term gains.



Thanks mezzer.

I have to hold onto my Lloyds shares for another 2 years. My mrs works for them and get £200 worth every month at half price and no NI or tax if you keep them for a set time. I've bought some at 11p and at most 45p... so current price 66p not an issue. I believe these will increase to well over £1 when the year end results are issued and pay a dividend in April and October.

I also hold National Grid as they pay good dividends twice a year and are well up on the price I paid.

Are you advocating holding just Cash for now?

Gold funds are a bit iffy and bonds.

Would be interested in what you think mate.

 

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