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nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 29 May 16 11.02pm

Originally posted by chris123

Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011.

[Link]

are only two circumstances in which a general election can take place earlier than the scheduled five years after the previous one.

First, the House of Commons can vote for one – but the number of votes for must be equal to or greater than two thirds of the number of seats in the House (including vacant seats).

In other words, even if a Prime Minister has a single-party majority, he cannot simply summon up an early general election. Only a Prime Minister in possession of a massive landslide or cross-party agreement could vote one through under this provision.

(This means that during both the 2010 and 2015 Parliaments, a ‘snap general election’ could not simply be called by the Prime Minister, despite some pundit who should know better liking speculating that he should or was about to.)

The second route is if the House of Commons passes a vote of no confidence in the government (by a simple majority) and then fails within fourteen days to pass a motion of confidence in a new government.

In other words, if a Prime Minister were to demand an early election, call a vote of no confidence in themselves and even get his own party to vote for the motion – there is no general election. Instead, the leader of the opposition would get the chance to form a government first. It is only if they – and everyone else – fails that there is then an early general election

 

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View Holmesdale62's Profile Holmesdale62 Flag Hayes Bromley 29 May 16 11.04pm Send a Private Message to Holmesdale62 Add Holmesdale62 as a friend

But the 1922 committee could accept an anonymous list from Tory MPs asking for a vote of no confidence. Then Cameron would have to wait the outcome of an in house election for him to continue as Tory leader and bye bye if the vote goes against him.

I don't know who would be running the country if this happens though (anyone know?) but of course front runner would be Boris.

So we could get a minority vote government with a leader we didn't elect and the Brexit campaign is based on the British people having control of their laws.

Are you rich? No I mean very, very rich? Then don't vote Conservative.

 

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View Cucking Funt's Profile Cucking Funt Flag Clapham on the Back 29 May 16 11.31pm Send a Private Message to Cucking Funt Add Cucking Funt as a friend

Originally posted by nickgusset

As bad as the Brexit ze Germans billboard.

Is there a way that both sides can lose?

One of the issues is the fact that the EU is worryingly German-dominated. The concept of 'ze Germans' is firmly entrenched in British popular culture. The Remain poster, on the other hand, is nothing but a crude stereotype which suggests that young white males habitually go arounnd intimidating those of formerly-colonial ancestry.

So no, it's actually far worse and more objectionable than the Brexit poster.

 


Wife beating may be socially acceptable in Sheffield, but it is a different matter in Cheltenham

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View corkery's Profile corkery Flag Cork City 30 May 16 12.19am Send a Private Message to corkery Add corkery as a friend

Originally posted by nickgusset

The newspapers must be wrong and you must be right then.

This sums up politics.

 


We'll never die

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DivingIsNotGood Flag se25 30 May 16 7.25am

Originally posted by Holmesdale62

I think this campaign has shown the Tories in their true light. Blame others. My way is best. Keep the majority of the voters ignorant of the real issues. Say were representing you and coming from an elite that we can never be a part of. Stabbing each other in public and then say 'Haw, Haw, Haw just banter and politics'.

Niche club of corrupt buggers I'm afraid.

Can you imagine a world with Trump and Boris in charge? What sad times we live in.

Good on you but may I ask you a question? If we stay in (which is 100% how it will go) How will you feel if there is a super financial meltdown, as big as the 1920's depression over next few years?

 


VOTING OUT - Brexit will allow Britain to embrace the Commonwealth and be GREAT again

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 30 May 16 7.58am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

Any working class person who votes remain is literally self harming.

Housing will become more and more difficult.
Low and semi skilled jobs will continually become harder to get.
Service infrastructures will become continually less effective.

Turkeys voting for Christmas.

Edited by Stirlingsays (30 May 2016 7.59am)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View chris123's Profile chris123 Flag hove actually 30 May 16 9.20am Send a Private Message to chris123 Add chris123 as a friend

I think if you are uncertain - a good question to ask yourself is if we weren't in the EU, and this was a referendum to decide whether to join - how would you vote.

It seems to me that if you like increasing federalism you should vote to stay, and if increasing federalism is not your thing, vote out.

 

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View big_palace_fan's Profile big_palace_fan Flag 30 May 16 12.31pm Send a Private Message to big_palace_fan Add big_palace_fan as a friend

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Any working class person who votes remain is literally self harming.

Housing will become more and more difficult.
Low and semi skilled jobs will continually become harder to get.
Service infrastructures will become continually less effective.

Turkeys voting for Christmas.

Edited by Stirlingsays (30 May 2016 7.59am)

I suppose working class people don't like

- strict workers rights

- entitled to paid holiday leave

- entitlement to paid sick leave

- fair maternity and paternity treatment

- ease of trade with the country's biggest export partner

- EU funding directly some of the most deprived parts of the UK

- health and safety in the workplace

- cheaper daily prices

- cheaper holidays

- not inevitably causing a recession which will disproportionately affect working class and lower income people

which are all guaranteed upon Remaining with the European Union.

 

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nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 30 May 16 12.48pm

Originally posted by chris123

Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011.

From today's Grauniad...

Bridgen told the BBC’s 5 Live that Cameron had been making “outrageous” claims in his bid to persuade voters to back remain and that, as a consequence, he had effectively lost his parliamentary majority.

Conservative rift over EU risks widening as attacks on David Cameron intensify
“The party is fairly fractured, straight down the middle and I don’t know which character could possibly pull it back together going forward for an effective government. I honestly think we probably need to go for a general election before Christmas and get a new mandate from the people,” he said.

Bridgen said at least 50 Tory MPs – the number needed to call a confidence vote – felt the same way about Cameron and that a vote on the prime minister’s future was “probably highly likely” after the referendum.

 

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DivingIsNotGood Flag se25 30 May 16 4.31pm

Originally posted by big_palace_fan

I suppose working class people don't like

- strict workers rights - more strikers now than in the 70's

- entitled to paid holiday leave - average working hours up with many working at home when they get home in order to get their job done!

- entitlement to paid sick leave - massively abused and needs a complete overhaul, doesn't work as it stands

- fair maternity and paternity treatment - both Norway and Switzerland have better rights

- ease of trade with the country's biggest export partner - can still trade with eu members through EFTA no prob at all.

- EU funding directly some of the most deprived parts of the UK - If UK didn't hand out tens of millions every week to the eu it could be better spent on brits

- health and safety in the workplace - anyone who works on a building site will tell what a joke and nightmare this is. We have turned into America with the subculture of sue for everything

- cheaper daily prices - with the cost of every working adult now far time poorer.

- cheaper holidays - to where? USA? No.. If you mean more reasonable to eu countries there is zero proof of this

- not inevitably causing a recession which will disproportionately affect working class and lower income people - in or out we are going to see a kick ass recession about to hit, it's imminent

which are all guaranteed upon Remaining with the European Union.

 


VOTING OUT - Brexit will allow Britain to embrace the Commonwealth and be GREAT again

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View snytaxx's Profile snytaxx Flag London 30 May 16 5.01pm Send a Private Message to snytaxx Add snytaxx as a friend

Originally posted by big_palace_fan

I suppose working class people don't like

- strict workers rights

- entitled to paid holiday leave

- entitlement to paid sick leave

- fair maternity and paternity treatment

- ease of trade with the country's biggest export partner

- EU funding directly some of the most deprived parts of the UK

- health and safety in the workplace

- cheaper daily prices

- cheaper holidays

- not inevitably causing a recession which will disproportionately affect working class and lower income people

which are all guaranteed upon Remaining with the European Union.

1 - 4 can be toughened up by a simple act of parliament, EU membership is not necessary in this case.

5. Who is our biggest trading partner, specifically? How is trading easier than before 1991? Plus, as covered in my earlier posts, but at what cost with non EU countries?

6. Radical plan, rather than gives lots of money to Brussels and receive a lesser sum back, lets put all that money into more deprived areas of the UK, its called self governance, plenty of other non EU countries manage it just fine.

7. Back to a simple act of parliament, assuming these laws actually need toughening up. Do they really? I'm pretty sure its written somewhere in UK law that you aren't allowed to treat your staff like s***.

8. What is cheaper? How much cheaper than if we weren't EU members? Ever been to Luxembourg, are things as cheap there? EU membership means 100% cheaper products right? Cheaper than where? non-EU Albania?

9. Again, a truly vague statement, while UK civil aviation may benefit from standardised aviation laws, leaving the EU won't suddenly mean we don't fall in line with these practices.

The UK is not a eurozone member so unless you are going on holiday to the Isle of Man (not part of the EU), you will still have to pay to switch up your currency. By your vague statement, every single flight to and from an EU country should be cheaper than ones outside of of the EU, again not true. Lets say you go for a long weekend in Madrid, do EU passport holders get a discount or a complimentary upgrade at the reception desk?

Can you go out for a some Tapas and find you get 10% off your bill because you are British and not Canadian?

Does a stadium tour of the Bernabéu cost 40 Euros for a Polish couple but 60 euros for some Russians?

On a side note, If I turn on my UK phone in the European Parliament (i'm with the Three network just for reference) and make a phone call back to the UK, I have to pay 4.3p a minute to chat - Thanks EU. Now if I pop over the border to Hong Kong however, that same phone call is totally free. Thank god for HK membership of the EU!

 

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View davenotamonkey's Profile davenotamonkey Flag 30 May 16 11.15pm Send a Private Message to davenotamonkey Add davenotamonkey as a friend

Originally posted by Kermit8

When all has been said and done not one of the 'Outs' on here or otherwise has convinced sufficiently that we will be better off economically away from the EU and that the peace in Western and central Europe that has evolved over the last 70 years will definitely not be compromised for the next 70 should the EU break up with not a little help from ourselves in June.

Herein lies the problem with the referendum: acute cases of confirmation bias like this, with the fantasy £4300 figures thrown in gleefully for good measure.

Tell me: where is the 2030 economic forecast for remaining in the EU. Did the treasury not produce one? Odd that. You would think, if a cost-benefit analysis were to be done, both referendum scenarios would receive the same treatment. So, um... the people can come to their own conclusions. Perhaps also to qualify a statement like "If we leave, we lose 10% GDP..." with "...but it we remain we lose 4%". But nope. Nothing there.

OK then. Next question. Where is the analysis that actually includes (unlike the treasury edition) the POSITIVES of Brexit? Odd. They would take all the potential negatives from leaving, but not include the positives? Why would they do that?

So let's recap the economic impact assessments as provided by the government and gleefully lorded by those on here:

EU-Remain
Benefits: Yes
Drawbacks: Not defined (& no projection of future EU trajectory)

Brexit
Benefits: Not defined
Drawbacks: Yes, considerable. Where to start?

Does anyone NOT have a problem with this? If you were selectively presenting a case for the above to a jury, cherrypicking the argument, would this be even remotely objective? Would a conviction be safe?

It is exactly this that causes the confirmation bias. You go out looking for the negatives in the press. You find them. Because there are no studies weighing the forecasted pros and cons for both sides.

"But why don't you go and do one then"? Well, I just heard from JohnnyBoy that only the treasury had the top-of-the-range tools, data, and analysis; using alternatives would imply you were "deranged" or something. We could certainly ask them, but it's a bit embarrassing that they didn't finish the cost/benefit matrix above. Perhaps they don't want to?

Still, this chap had a pretty good look at the treasury claims, and laid out his perspective:

[Link]

Sure, to our EUphiles on here it's "propaganda" as opposed to "treasury facts" - but then, given the seriously unbalanced treasury narrative above, it's interesting to see this Macroeconomics PhD (working for the EU Commission and producing the "essential theory" behind the UK govt deficit plan) effort. Even under the most pessimistic of conditions and assumptions, he cannot get even close to the treasury 6% GDP loss. Sexed up?

As for the OECD report, the assumptions that go into that (no trade deals, ever, with any other nation / bloc in the world, apart from the EU) again bear no relation to reality. When you have a computational model, there is a phrase: "GIGO" - If you put Garbage In, you get Garbage Out.....

...which is why we have claims that leaving the EU will be more devastating than WW1, the great depression and the recent economic crash. Garbage In, Garbage Out.

 

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