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March 29 2024 6.59am

Effects of Austerity Cuts part 58

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View Stuk's Profile Stuk Flag Top half 20 Mar 15 3.15pm Send a Private Message to Stuk Add Stuk as a friend

Quote kersal at 19 Mar 2015 11.26pm

Quote npn at 18 Mar 2015 9.57am

Quote jamiemartin721 at 18 Mar 2015 9.51am

Quote npn at 18 Mar 2015 9.40am

Quote jamiemartin721 at 18 Mar 2015 9.25am

Quote npn at 18 Mar 2015 9.16am

Quote jamiemartin721 at 18 Mar 2015 9.08am

Quote npn at 11 Feb 2015 8.19am

Quote moylerg at 11 Feb 2015 7.51am

Quote Catfish at 11 Feb 2015 7.47am

260,000 people a year adding to the population is hardly "statistically insignificant".


Statistics tend to look at overall percentages, part of the whole, and at 0.5%, it is close to statistically insignificant. He is correct in that and many other of his statements. A great article.


But that's an annual figure.
0.5% may be a small figure, but over 10 years that's 5%, and growing constantly.

You may believe imigration is beneficial, which is fine, but you can't realistically claim it's insignificant

You need to determine the percentage of population growth that is generated by immigration.

Even over 10 years, its not 5%, its still 0.5%, it doesn't increase as a percentage just because its x10 it remains fixed at 0.5% of the sum.



260,000 a year are down to immigration (no idea if those figures are accurate).

In 10 years (comparatively the blink of an eye), that's 2.6 million. Nobody in their right mind could possibly claim that 2.6 million is a "statistically insignificant" figure, regardless of the population growth from non-immigration sources.

As I said, you can argue that it's beneficial, which is fine (but a seperate argument) but you can't just claim the figures are insignificant and ignore them. That sort of approach is precisely what led to the rise of UKIP - "don't talk about it or you're a racist"

Except of course it is, if its a 0.5% factor of the whole. Even at 5%, that would mean that 95% of the 'factor or problem' occurs elsewhere, so it would only be significant if 95% of the other factors fell below the 5% margin.

You might as well be arguing the 5 is a bigger number than 95.

Statistical relevancy is an objective measurement, determined in line with mathematics. As such only someone not in their right mind would argue that a statistically insignificant factor is significant.

This is why in statistical based science, you tend to argue with the methodology of determining significance rather than the results of the statistical analysis.



And that's where "lies, damned lies, and statistics" comes into play. Of course the vast majority of popuylation growth is down to birth rate of those already here, and statistically there is also a much higher birth rate among immigrant (and particularly third world immigrant) families.

But hey, let's just ignore it!

See, you've already realized that it isn't a relevant factor, and that cultural factors on birth rates is itself a more relevant area to focus on.

Interestingly the most relevant determanent of higher than average birth rates, isn't ethnic, its economic factors and education. Poverty seems to be linked with higher birth rates, far more than culture or ethnicity.

So I'd start there, rather than blaming working migrants and immigration.



Don't think antyone was 'blaming' anything. There you go again with your "if you talk about immigration you're blaming immigrants"

Jesus, you may as well work for UKIP!

What's the big deal about the population growth by the way? Since 2000, UK's population growth has been less than 0.7% per annum on average. US grows easily above 1%. Emerging markets grow 2-3% and this is considered a normal rate. Developed nations grow at anywhere between 0.5-1.5% and the UK is at the lower half.

Some population growth is a very healthy thing; it expands all markets.

No government would be alarmed by a population growth of less than 1% - no well-functioning government should be. If a politician uses this argument to make a point about immigration policies and immigrants, please know that it's nothing but propaganda.

There may be other very real concerns about immigration, but this is not one of them.


Trouble is it's not spread out among the UK, they all want to be in the South East. The population figures for Wales, N. Ireland and Scotland barely ever move up or down.

Even if we say it's only a 1% increase per annum in the South East and we take the hugely generous population of 10m, that's 100,000 people per year for 15 years.

1.5m extra people, no matter how you cut it, is going to cause issues with supply and demand of everything.

 


Optimistic as ever

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View IMpalace's Profile IMpalace Flag London 20 Mar 15 3.34pm Send a Private Message to IMpalace Add IMpalace as a friend

Quote nickgusset at 20 Feb 2013 11.48pm

Quote Cucking Funt at 20 Feb 2013 11.19pm

Lefty sh*t, Nick. You wouldn't have given this 'story' houseroom if it had appeared in the DM.


Hence my caveat in my original post, not sure if this is real or not.

If it was in the mail, I would have known for certain it was horses***e.


"Mr Cameron. I'm a police officer. I've been sat here picking my arse for 9 months watching football. My staff are all bored, there's just far too many of us"

Wow. That is some hard hitting stuff. Thoughts?

*Not sure if this is true or absolute bollocks made up by me in the last 45 seconds.

 

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View Lyons550's Profile Lyons550 Flag Shirley 20 Mar 15 4.27pm Send a Private Message to Lyons550 Add Lyons550 as a friend

Quote Stuk at 20 Mar 2015 3.15pm

Quote kersal at 19 Mar 2015 11.26pm

Quote npn at 18 Mar 2015 9.57am

Quote jamiemartin721 at 18 Mar 2015 9.51am

Quote npn at 18 Mar 2015 9.40am

Quote jamiemartin721 at 18 Mar 2015 9.25am

Quote npn at 18 Mar 2015 9.16am

Quote jamiemartin721 at 18 Mar 2015 9.08am

Quote npn at 11 Feb 2015 8.19am

Quote moylerg at 11 Feb 2015 7.51am

Quote Catfish at 11 Feb 2015 7.47am

260,000 people a year adding to the population is hardly "statistically insignificant".


Statistics tend to look at overall percentages, part of the whole, and at 0.5%, it is close to statistically insignificant. He is correct in that and many other of his statements. A great article.


But that's an annual figure.
0.5% may be a small figure, but over 10 years that's 5%, and growing constantly.

You may believe imigration is beneficial, which is fine, but you can't realistically claim it's insignificant

You need to determine the percentage of population growth that is generated by immigration.

Even over 10 years, its not 5%, its still 0.5%, it doesn't increase as a percentage just because its x10 it remains fixed at 0.5% of the sum.



260,000 a year are down to immigration (no idea if those figures are accurate).

In 10 years (comparatively the blink of an eye), that's 2.6 million. Nobody in their right mind could possibly claim that 2.6 million is a "statistically insignificant" figure, regardless of the population growth from non-immigration sources.

As I said, you can argue that it's beneficial, which is fine (but a seperate argument) but you can't just claim the figures are insignificant and ignore them. That sort of approach is precisely what led to the rise of UKIP - "don't talk about it or you're a racist"

Except of course it is, if its a 0.5% factor of the whole. Even at 5%, that would mean that 95% of the 'factor or problem' occurs elsewhere, so it would only be significant if 95% of the other factors fell below the 5% margin.

You might as well be arguing the 5 is a bigger number than 95.

Statistical relevancy is an objective measurement, determined in line with mathematics. As such only someone not in their right mind would argue that a statistically insignificant factor is significant.

This is why in statistical based science, you tend to argue with the methodology of determining significance rather than the results of the statistical analysis.



And that's where "lies, damned lies, and statistics" comes into play. Of course the vast majority of popuylation growth is down to birth rate of those already here, and statistically there is also a much higher birth rate among immigrant (and particularly third world immigrant) families.

But hey, let's just ignore it!

See, you've already realized that it isn't a relevant factor, and that cultural factors on birth rates is itself a more relevant area to focus on.

Interestingly the most relevant determanent of higher than average birth rates, isn't ethnic, its economic factors and education. Poverty seems to be linked with higher birth rates, far more than culture or ethnicity.

So I'd start there, rather than blaming working migrants and immigration.



Don't think antyone was 'blaming' anything. There you go again with your "if you talk about immigration you're blaming immigrants"

Jesus, you may as well work for UKIP!

What's the big deal about the population growth by the way? Since 2000, UK's population growth has been less than 0.7% per annum on average. US grows easily above 1%. Emerging markets grow 2-3% and this is considered a normal rate. Developed nations grow at anywhere between 0.5-1.5% and the UK is at the lower half.

Some population growth is a very healthy thing; it expands all markets.

No government would be alarmed by a population growth of less than 1% - no well-functioning government should be. If a politician uses this argument to make a point about immigration policies and immigrants, please know that it's nothing but propaganda.

There may be other very real concerns about immigration, but this is not one of them.


Trouble is it's not spread out among the UK, they all want to be in the South East. The population figures for Wales, N. Ireland and Scotland barely ever move up or down.

Even if we say it's only a 1% increase per annum in the South East and we take the hugely generous population of 10m, that's 100,000 people per year for 15 years.

1.5m extra people, no matter how you cut it, is going to cause issues with supply and demand of everything.

Its more about the 'room' we have for these people...the States can soak this sort of expansion up for another 100years with the amount of room they have...we cant.

 


The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

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View johnno42000's Profile johnno42000 Flag 22 Mar 15 1.39pm Send a Private Message to johnno42000 Add johnno42000 as a friend

A disgusting policy and one of the reasons I shall be voting for a party that will get rid of it [Link]

Edited by johnno42000 (22 Mar 2015 1.41pm)

 


'Lies to the masses as are like fly's to mollasses...they want more and more and more'

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View Rubin's Profile Rubin Flag 22 Mar 15 1.58pm Send a Private Message to Rubin Add Rubin as a friend

Quote johnno42000 at 22 Mar 2015 1.39pm

A disgusting policy and one of the reasons I shall be voting for a party that will get rid of it [Link]

Edited by johnno42000 (22 Mar 2015 1.41pm)


Couldn't his son sleep in the lounge or on the floor in his dad's room?

 

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View chris123's Profile chris123 Flag hove actually 22 Mar 15 2.12pm Send a Private Message to chris123 Add chris123 as a friend

Quote johnno42000 at 22 Mar 2015 1.39pm

A disgusting policy and one of the reasons I shall be voting for a party that will get rid of it [Link]

Edited by johnno42000 (22 Mar 2015 1.41pm)


Hull City council should be ashamed of themselves.

 

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nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 31 Mar 15 10.54am

[Link]

Another article on the austerity debt narrative and the bs in the media.

 

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View susmik's Profile susmik Flag PLYMOUTH -But Made in Old Coulsdon... 02 Apr 15 3.31pm Send a Private Message to susmik Add susmik as a friend

Quote nickgusset at 17 Mar 2015 7.11pm

[Link]

400,000 to be denied adult education due to cuts according to this...


But that is only the UCU's estimate Nick not the official one. The unions are bound to bump the figures up to justify themselves and let everyone think they are earning their vast pay packets!

 


Supported Palace for over 69 years since the age of 7 and have seen all the ups and downs and will probably see many more ups and downs before I go up to the big football club in the sky.

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View susmik's Profile susmik Flag PLYMOUTH -But Made in Old Coulsdon... 02 Apr 15 3.39pm Send a Private Message to susmik Add susmik as a friend

Quote chris123 at 22 Mar 2015 2.12pm

Quote johnno42000 at 22 Mar 2015 1.39pm

A disgusting policy and one of the reasons I shall be voting for a party that will get rid of it [Link]

Edited by johnno42000 (22 Mar 2015 1.41pm)


Hull City council should be ashamed of themselves.

I notice the article was in a Labour paper (the mirror) and the council in question is also a Labour run council.....Seems like they are digging up dirt just to make the government look bad?

 


Supported Palace for over 69 years since the age of 7 and have seen all the ups and downs and will probably see many more ups and downs before I go up to the big football club in the sky.

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View Willo's Profile Willo Flag South coast - west of Brighton. 02 Apr 15 3.51pm Send a Private Message to Willo Add Willo as a friend

Quote nickgusset at 31 Mar 2015 10.54am

[Link]

Another article on the austerity debt narrative and the bs in the media.

And this is what his peers say about the author !!!!

[Link]

Back on the campaign trail now !


Edited by Willo (02 Apr 2015 4.17pm)

 

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View matt_himself's Profile matt_himself Flag Matataland 02 Apr 15 4.26pm Send a Private Message to matt_himself Add matt_himself as a friend

Quote Willo at 02 Apr 2015 3.51pm

Quote nickgusset at 31 Mar 2015 10.54am

[Link]

Another article on the austerity debt narrative and the bs in the media.

And this is what his peers say about the author !!!!

[Link]

Back on the campaign trail now !


Edited by Willo (02 Apr 2015 4.17pm)

Just remember Gusset is always right. Regardless of facts.

He will say 'Lolz' now to deflect from this.

 


"That was fun and to round off the day, I am off to steal a charity collection box and then desecrate a place of worship.” - Smokey, The Selhurst Arms, 26/02/02

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View susmik's Profile susmik Flag PLYMOUTH -But Made in Old Coulsdon... 02 Apr 15 4.35pm Send a Private Message to susmik Add susmik as a friend

Quote nickgusset at 31 Mar 2015 10.54am

[Link]

Another article on the austerity debt narrative and the bs in the media.


FROM ARTICLE

"The narrative I’m talking about goes like this: In the years before the financial crisis, the British government borrowed irresponsibly, so that the country was living far beyond its means. As a result, by 2010 Britain was at imminent risk of a Greek-style crisis; austerity policies, slashing spending in particular, were essential. And this turn to austerity is vindicated by Britain’s low borrowing costs, coupled with the fact that the economy, after several rough years, is now growing quite quickly".

I see from this part from that article it was all down to Labours Borrowing then !!!! Seems the government IS doing things right for the country???

 


Supported Palace for over 69 years since the age of 7 and have seen all the ups and downs and will probably see many more ups and downs before I go up to the big football club in the sky.

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