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March 19 2024 7.05am

Palace's Survival Magic Number

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View thebob's Profile thebob Flag Tatebayashi (from Croydon) 08 Apr 14 11.03pm Send a Private Message to thebob Add thebob as a friend

Quote kenbarr at 08 Apr 2014 9.10pm

The formula is take the team who can get the most points in the 38 games, in this case Sunderland since they have now played two less games than the other two in the relegation places. Multiply the total number of games remaining by 3 and add one since we don't factor tiebreakers (goal difference and such). Therefore, for Palace to be mathematically safe, any combination of 13 points gained by Palace or lost by Sunderland equals safety.

It is quite a bit more complex than that.

The "magic number" is the amount of points that will guarantee that we finish 17th. 13 would be the magic number if Sunderland weren't playing any of the teams above us, but they are. Not every team below us can score maximum points because not everyone can win every game.

Before the Sun-Spurs game 10 was the number, It's slightly less now but I can't be assed to calculate it.

This predictor is great.

[Link]

Try making every team below us win every match and you will soon find out how the interplay of other teams increases our chances of staying up.

3 or 4 pts will do it realistically , but mathematically we need at least 10 pts.

Edited by thebob (08 Apr 2014 11.03pm)

 

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View Alexi_the_Eagle's Profile Alexi_the_Eagle Flag Newton-le-Willows 08 Apr 14 11.16pm Send a Private Message to Alexi_the_Eagle Add Alexi_the_Eagle as a friend

Palace's magic number? 39 points. That's all we need, a win and 2 draws to be safe.

 


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View Canterbury Palace's Profile Canterbury Palace Flag Whitstable 08 Apr 14 11.30pm Send a Private Message to Canterbury Palace Add Canterbury Palace as a friend

I think if we now lost every remaining game we'd still have a decent chance of staying up. Sunderland and Cardiff need too many points per game, far above what they've achieved so far this season. I think those two will be joined by the loser of the Fulham V Norwich game this weekend. My money is literally on Fulham escaping, which I backed at 29/10 this morning. I don't reckon Norwich will take another point.

 


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View rossboss29's Profile rossboss29 Flag Portsmouth 08 Apr 14 11.33pm Send a Private Message to rossboss29 Add rossboss29 as a friend

I genuinely believe 36 points will be enough to stay up.
One more win and I think we will have survival. If we lose against Villa, West Ham & Everton I reckon it will go to the last day of the season.

 

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View Stesbot's Profile Stesbot Flag Tonbridge 08 Apr 14 11.45pm Send a Private Message to Stesbot Add Stesbot as a friend

Using the predictor I think 9 points mathematically guarantees survival although getting relegated on 42 points takes quite a sequence of results from our rivals.

 

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View kenbarr's Profile kenbarr Flag Jackson Heights, Queens, New York ... 09 Apr 14 4.50pm Send a Private Message to kenbarr Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add kenbarr as a friend

Having started this thread, I admit that my math and statistics are from hunger.

 


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View Lee_Bowman's Profile Lee_Bowman Flag DOVER 09 Apr 14 4.59pm Send a Private Message to Lee_Bowman Add Lee_Bowman as a friend

I have looked at each clubs’ remaining fixtures and predicted each result and my conclusion is that the bottom 8 will looks something like this…

ASTON VILLA 40
PALACE 39
SWANSEA CITY 37
WEST BROM 37
FULHAM 34
NORWICH CITY 33
SUNDERLAND 33
CARDIFF CITY 30

 


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View kenbarr's Profile kenbarr Flag Jackson Heights, Queens, New York ... 12 Apr 14 7.34pm Send a Private Message to kenbarr Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add kenbarr as a friend

With Palace winning and Sunderland losing, magic survival number goes down to 7. Can we start to believe now?

 


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View kenbarr's Profile kenbarr Flag Jackson Heights, Queens, New York ... 12 Apr 14 7.37pm Send a Private Message to kenbarr Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add kenbarr as a friend

Quote Lee_Bowman at 09 Apr 2014 4.59pm

I have looked at each clubs’ remaining fixtures and predicted each result and my conclusion is that the bottom 8 will looks something like this…

ASTON VILLA 40
PALACE 39
SWANSEA CITY 37
WEST BROM 37
FULHAM 34
NORWICH CITY 33
SUNDERLAND 33
CARDIFF CITY 30


We have 37 now with a winnable fixture at West Ham, a barn burner between two in-form sides at Everton Wednesday night and I fancy our chances getting points against both Liverpool and Man City. Fulham away is tricky because they still may need points to survive. Palace should come out this with anywhere from 42 to 45 points.

 


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