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Odds against relegation - 6 April 2014

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View James's Profile James Flag Ewhurst, Surrey. 07 Apr 14 11.26am Send a Private Message to James Add James as a friend

I have posted this on the BBS:

[Link]

but I know that some of you would sooner visit North Stand Chat than the BBS, so as this may be of interest to the BBSphobes, here it is in a thread of its own here in the wonderful HoL:

I really do not want to tempt fate by posting this, but statistician Simon Gleave and professional sports data analyst (who many of you will remember as 'Shaggy' from e-goals days) has pointed out that his friend and colleague Mark Taylor has updated his blog today. You can read it here:

[Link]

This is what Shaggy wrote to me this morning:

"OK, time for the Monday morning update. I have now seen three different models which all estimate Palace's chances of relegation at 2% so I'm happy to go with that as the truth despite not yet seeing the Euro Club Index's assessment.

Mark Taylor - one of the best stat guys out there - has posted his update which can be summarised as follows:

If Palace take just 1 point from their last 6, they have more than 80% chance of survival. 2 points takes it over 90%, 3 to near certainty, 4 to certainty.

Most likely points total for Palace is 38 and will probably fall somewhere between 37 and 41."

Betfair's odds on Palace being relegated are a far from generous 12-1. According to Shaggy (and Mark Taylor), the real odds today are closer to 50 - 1.

Mind you - when Palace were 8 points clear of Oldham, with 3 games to play, the odds I suspect would have been far longer, so I am not relaxing just yet.

Edited by James (07 Apr 2014 11.27am)

 

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Palace_denizen Flag filed under " time wasters " 07 Apr 14 11.35am

sorry James, the Holmesdale is a bully free zone. I would rather support brighton.

 


Laughing at Charlton - Every London Clyub's fourth or fifth most hated team -
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View James's Profile James Flag Ewhurst, Surrey. 07 Apr 14 11.53am Send a Private Message to James Add James as a friend

Quote Palace_denizen at 07 Apr 2014 11.35am

sorry James, the Holmesdale is a bully free zone. I would rather support brighton.

Apology accepted.


 

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View topcat's Profile topcat Flag Holmesdale / Surbiton 07 Apr 14 12.04pm Send a Private Message to topcat Add topcat as a friend

Whilst no more points could still us survive, I still think that 3 points against Villa is vital if we are going to avoid a few sleepless nights. I just can't see us getting many or possibly any, more points after Saturday until the last game of the season and I really don't want to go to Fulham needing anything from the game.

 


It's 106 miles to Chicago, we got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark... and we're wearing sunglasses.

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View Ashford Eagle's Profile Ashford Eagle Flag Folkestone, Kent 07 Apr 14 6.49pm Send a Private Message to Ashford Eagle Add Ashford Eagle as a friend

Quote topcat at 07 Apr 2014 12.04pm

Whilst no more points could still us survive, I still think that 3 points against Villa is vital if we are going to avoid a few sleepless nights. I just can't see us getting many or possibly any, more points after Saturday until the last game of the season and I really don't want to go to Fulham needing anything from the game.


I must admit before our last two games I would have said 4 points from them would probably be enough, but six points later I still want more to be sure. Neutrals seem to think we have done enough but the majority of Palace fans have been bitten so many times before and are taking nothing for granted. I hope we can get 3 points on Saturday (although I think Villa will be tougher than a lot are saying) and then I will be confident!! Great and interesting article though being a fan of stats myself!

 

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