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James Ewhurst, Surrey. 07 Apr 14 11.26am | |
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I have posted this on the BBS: but I know that some of you would sooner visit North Stand Chat than the BBS, so as this may be of interest to the BBSphobes, here it is in a thread of its own here in the wonderful HoL: I really do not want to tempt fate by posting this, but statistician Simon Gleave and professional sports data analyst (who many of you will remember as 'Shaggy' from e-goals days) has pointed out that his friend and colleague Mark Taylor has updated his blog today. You can read it here: This is what Shaggy wrote to me this morning: "OK, time for the Monday morning update. I have now seen three different models which all estimate Palace's chances of relegation at 2% so I'm happy to go with that as the truth despite not yet seeing the Euro Club Index's assessment. Mark Taylor - one of the best stat guys out there - has posted his update which can be summarised as follows: If Palace take just 1 point from their last 6, they have more than 80% chance of survival. 2 points takes it over 90%, 3 to near certainty, 4 to certainty. Most likely points total for Palace is 38 and will probably fall somewhere between 37 and 41." Betfair's odds on Palace being relegated are a far from generous 12-1. According to Shaggy (and Mark Taylor), the real odds today are closer to 50 - 1. Mind you - when Palace were 8 points clear of Oldham, with 3 games to play, the odds I suspect would have been far longer, so I am not relaxing just yet. Edited by James (07 Apr 2014 11.27am)
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Palace_denizen filed under " time wasters " 07 Apr 14 11.35am | |
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sorry James, the Holmesdale is a bully free zone. I would rather support brighton.
Laughing at Charlton - Every London Clyub's fourth or fifth most hated team - |
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James Ewhurst, Surrey. 07 Apr 14 11.53am | |
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Quote Palace_denizen at 07 Apr 2014 11.35am
sorry James, the Holmesdale is a bully free zone. I would rather support brighton. Apology accepted.
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topcat Holmesdale / Surbiton 07 Apr 14 12.04pm | |
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Whilst no more points could still us survive, I still think that 3 points against Villa is vital if we are going to avoid a few sleepless nights. I just can't see us getting many or possibly any, more points after Saturday until the last game of the season and I really don't want to go to Fulham needing anything from the game.
It's 106 miles to Chicago, we got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark... and we're wearing sunglasses. |
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Ashford Eagle Folkestone, Kent 07 Apr 14 6.49pm | |
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Quote topcat at 07 Apr 2014 12.04pm
Whilst no more points could still us survive, I still think that 3 points against Villa is vital if we are going to avoid a few sleepless nights. I just can't see us getting many or possibly any, more points after Saturday until the last game of the season and I really don't want to go to Fulham needing anything from the game.
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