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View Badger11's Profile Badger11 Flag Beckenham 08 Aug 19 8.42am Send a Private Message to Badger11 Add Badger11 as a friend

MSM are in a tizzy over McDonell comments that Corbyn will tell the Queen Labour are taking over e.g. Marxist coup.

[Link]

Actually it's not as sinister as it sounds.

-Johnson loses a vote of no confidence and decides not to call a GE immediately.

- Labour say they can form a government and put forward a vote of confidence in a Corbyn led coalition which they win proving they have a majority. On this basis Corbyn approaches the Queen for permission to form a government which she would give.

All of the above is entirely constitutionally although I wouldn't like to see it. I don't think it will happen for the following reasons:

- It is entirely possible that Johnson will lose a vote on a no deal Brexit as Tory rebels would vote with the opposition. However how many of those rebels would actively support a Corbyn coalition? This would mean they leave the Tory party and likely lose their next seat at the next GE.

- The Lib Dems would vote against a no deal but would they form a coalition? Last time they did this they got badly burned.

- The nationalists would ask a high price to join a coalition would Corbyn be prepared to pay that and would enough of his MPs support this if they felt the union was at risk.

The more likely scenario is that Johnson loses a no confidence vote there is a lot of dithering by the opposition parties who can't muster the votes to take over Johnson runs the clock down and then calls a GE after 31 Oct.

Edited by Badger11 (08 Aug 2019 8.42am)

 


One more point

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View Matov's Profile Matov Flag 08 Aug 19 10.22am Send a Private Message to Matov Add Matov as a friend

Johnson wants Parliament to scupper Brexit. That is the point of this all. That is the ground over which he wants to fight a snap election. 'Back Brexit, Back Boris.' Or words to that effect.

Hence them going, or appearing to, hell for leather for a No Deal exit on October 31st.

Johnson is about legacy. He has got to number 10 and now sees Brexit as his Churchillian moment in history. He is desperate for Remain MP's, especially Labour ones, to scupper his plans, desperate for any excuse to call a GE.

Appointing Cummings is the key to understanding all of this. Creates a bogeyman that the Remainers are genuinely scared of, rightly or wrongly. And sends one hell of a message to the EU and Ireland, who are already making conciliatory noises because a hard-border ONLY hurts them. To the UK it is a blip. Barely registering given that almost none of our trade actually crosses that border.

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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View Penge Eagle's Profile Penge Eagle Flag Beckenham 08 Aug 19 11.42am Send a Private Message to Penge Eagle Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Penge Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Matov


Not so sure. Is the Remain postion truly globalist? The EU is essentially a protection racket, looking to ensure that a series of European industries are effectively offered protection against the slings and arrows of increasingly globalised trade.

The EU want that backstop because they don't want the UK to sign trade deals with other countries.

One of the reasons I supported Leave is because I believe that due to globalisation the notion of supranational organisations such as the EU are an anachronism. In the 20th century there was perhaps an argument but now? No. Its time has passed.

Also how would you marry up the Common Agricultural Policy with your Nationalist/Globalist narrative? The CAP is perhaps the most nationalist policy out there and lays at the very heart of why the EU not only exists but how it operates.

It's globalist in the idea of open borders and multi-country trade pacts.

But I see it more as authoritarians (EU, UK establishment) vs individuals (rights and free speech).

 

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deleted user Flag 08 Aug 19 11.53am

Originally posted by Matov

Johnson wants Parliament to scupper Brexit. That is the point of this all. That is the ground over which he wants to fight a snap election. 'Back Brexit, Back Boris.' Or words to that effect.

Hence them going, or appearing to, hell for leather for a No Deal exit on October 31st.

Johnson is about legacy. He has got to number 10 and now sees Brexit as his Churchillian moment in history. He is desperate for Remain MP's, especially Labour ones, to scupper his plans, desperate for any excuse to call a GE.

Appointing Cummings is the key to understanding all of this. Creates a bogeyman that the Remainers are genuinely scared of, rightly or wrongly. And sends one hell of a message to the EU and Ireland, who are already making conciliatory noises because a hard-border ONLY hurts them. To the UK it is a blip. Barely registering given that almost none of our trade actually crosses that border.

Insightful comments. Do you think that the result of a GE is a formality though?

 

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View corkery's Profile corkery Flag Cork City 08 Aug 19 12.15pm Send a Private Message to corkery Add corkery as a friend

The Americans could be the solution to this. Sign a free trade deal and the UK has some sort of market. The lowering of food standards will obviously be an issue.

 


We'll never die

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View Matov's Profile Matov Flag 08 Aug 19 12.20pm Send a Private Message to Matov Add Matov as a friend

Originally posted by Penge Eagle

It's globalist in the idea of open borders and multi-country trade pacts.

But I see it more as authoritarians (EU, UK establishment) vs individuals (rights and free speech).

It is all for open borders for some. That is the key here. And on trade, it is beyond protectionist. Coffee is a great example. You need to ask yourself how a country such as Germany, which does not grow a single coffee bean, can be amongst the biggest exporters of coffee in the world?

I am willing to accept all sorts of claims about the EU but this notion that it is somehow promoting globalisation is an absolute fallacy.

The EU sells the UK an entire raft of agricultural products that we could buy a lot cheaper elsewhere. And it is desperate to protect that.

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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View Matov's Profile Matov Flag 08 Aug 19 12.30pm Send a Private Message to Matov Add Matov as a friend

Originally posted by dollardays

Insightful comments. Do you think that the result of a GE is a formality though?

If Brexit is the primary narrative then I suspect it is Johnsons to lose. The context here is to understand how both the June 2016 and the recent Euro-Election vote panned out on a constituency basis. And it was overwhelmingly pro-leave. I think in June 2016 the vote broke down to roughly 400 Leave seats compared to 200 remain. It is why Corbyn has resisted so hard against making Labour the party of Remain because he is aware of the maths.

Johnson knows he has to fight on the grounds of Brexit. No other way of looking at it. Hence what we are seeing now. Ramping up the rhetoric to provoke the Remain side into hysteria. Trust me, we ain't seen nothing yet.

Johnson gets to lead a Tory Party that will be cleansed of any dissenting voices whilst Corbyn leads what? A party in complete disarray which gets slaughtered every time the Brexit issue gets raised. And Lib-Dems, openly wishing to ignore the result from 2016.

Only question for Johnson is how the Brexit Party leaps. If they decide not to stand, or only do so in certain seats with the Tories standing to one side then I suspect it will be a 30-40 seat majority for Johnson. However, if they decide to fully contest it, perhaps a different picture.

Now whether Johnson then follows through on his no-deal Brexit, that is another question but I suspect that if he does win, the EU will offer a lot more concessions based on the fact they have an out in claiming it is a new Government now with a specific mandate.

I suspect a deal with include keeping us in the single market and customs union for agricultural goods. The EU want to protect Irish farmers and whilst I would love to see that t*** Varadkar destroyed, we need to rise above that sort of short term squabble.

But an interesting few months ahead but I suspect September will either make or break Johnson.

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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W12 08 Aug 19 12.37pm

Originally posted by Matov


Not so sure. Is the Remain postion truly globalist? The EU is essentially a protection racket, looking to ensure that a series of European industries are effectively offered protection against the slings and arrows of increasingly globalised trade.

The EU want that backstop because they don't want the UK to sign trade deals with other countries.

One of the reasons I supported Leave is because I believe that due to globalisation the notion of supranational organisations such as the EU are an anachronism. In the 20th century there was perhaps an argument but now? No. Its time has passed.

Also how would you marry up the Common Agricultural Policy with your Nationalist/Globalist narrative? The CAP is perhaps the most nationalist policy out there and lays at the very heart of why the EU not only exists but how it operates.

The EU's ambitions extend well beyond it's current "borders" - specifically Africa for example and I'm sure anyone else they can get their hands on with an army at it;s disposal. Things like the CAP would extent into this by definition. It would be stick to beat developing countries into joining the EU along with the threat of being "liberated".

 

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View Matov's Profile Matov Flag 08 Aug 19 12.50pm Send a Private Message to Matov Add Matov as a friend

Originally posted by W12

The EU's ambitions extend well beyond it's current "borders" - specifically Africa for example and I'm sure anyone else they can get their hands on with an army at it;s disposal. Things like the CAP would extent into this by definition. It would be stick to beat developing countries into joining the EU along with the threat of being "liberated".


I suspect that certain people in the EU might like the idea but the truth is that are fighting too many of their own fires at the moment. And Africa is being bought up by China. That is the real colonial expansion going on at the moment and where the problems are to come in the next 50 years or so. If people like to believe us big bad westerners were bad for Africa, then they are going to hate what China intends for the place because they genuinely do not see Africans as fully human. And have no missionary zeal to counter the economic pillaging.

If we do manage to extradite ourselves cleanly from the EU then I predict it will become even more protectionist than it is at the moment. To many French, Spanish and to a lesser extent, Irish farmers to protect from the slings and arrows of free global trade. And without the UK to sell into, it has to redirect those products inward.

The whole point is that they cannot compete as things stand with the rest of the world so all they can do is whack up tariffs and lock even more global trade out of their club.


Edited by Matov (08 Aug 2019 12.52pm)

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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View Penge Eagle's Profile Penge Eagle Flag Beckenham 08 Aug 19 5.29pm Send a Private Message to Penge Eagle Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Penge Eagle as a friend

Originally posted by Matov

It is all for open borders for some. That is the key here. And on trade, it is beyond protectionist. Coffee is a great example. You need to ask yourself how a country such as Germany, which does not grow a single coffee bean, can be amongst the biggest exporters of coffee in the world?

I am willing to accept all sorts of claims about the EU but this notion that it is somehow promoting globalisation is an absolute fallacy.

The EU sells the UK an entire raft of agricultural products that we could buy a lot cheaper elsewhere. And it is desperate to protect that.

I think you're confusing globalism and its political ideology with globalisation.

 

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View Stirlingsays's Profile Stirlingsays Flag 09 Aug 19 8.55am Send a Private Message to Stirlingsays Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add Stirlingsays as a friend

This Brexit joke never gets old.

[Link]

Edited by Stirlingsays (09 Aug 2019 8.57am)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

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View Matov's Profile Matov Flag 09 Aug 19 1.55pm Send a Private Message to Matov Add Matov as a friend

Originally posted by Penge Eagle

I think you're confusing globalism and its political ideology with globalisation.


More than possible. But trade and migration go hand in hand, if it is the 'open borders' notion you are alluding to.

And the EU is, despite appearances, protectionist in both. Yes, we hear a lot of hot air about migration but when all those Soc.libs are virtue signalling about how barbaric Salvini is with his hard approach to turning away ships full of illegal migrants, none of them are offering to take them in themselves. And with hard-borders being imposed across Europe at an alarming rate.

The EU wants to lock out the rest of the world. That is the point of it. It wants to make sure we buy Irish meat or eat French cheese and use Spanish Olive-oil and pay top Euro for it. Ain't none of them queuing up to make the mistake that Merkal did.

 


"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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