The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)
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 Mr_Gristle  In the land of Whelk Eaters 12 Jul 16 7.43pm |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
What are these facts that you allude to? The facts I deal with? Commercial in Confidence mate ;-) I work in the Analytics and modelling team in a large Commercial Bank. We look backwards, look at now and look forward. Facts, evidence, projection. Beats the previous lives of Prison Service and teaching (although only just in the second instance.
Well I think Simon's head is large; always involved in espionage. (Name that tune) |
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tome  Inner Tantalus Time. 12 Jul 16 7.45pm |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
Nobody said there would be £350 million per week for the NHS. It said "Let's fund our NHS." Who has said immigration might not fall at all from the leave camp? I don't recall Boris, Gove, Leadsom saying it. May hasn't said it. Who has? Farage has said the £350m was a mistake. I guess partly if we did get the EEA option then we'd still have to pay, just have no say. Daniel Hannan from the Leave campaign has said it might not have any effect on migration, as the prevailing view that the value of access to the free trade area is perecieved to be important that having no freedom of movement.
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| tome Inner Tantalus Time. 12 Jul 16 7.48pm |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
How is he going to pay for it? How are we going to pay for Brexit, that's what I'm curious to know. All these negotiations - with the EU and others - are going to be expesneive. Let alone the cost of finagling the law. And the government's already pushing an austerity ideology.
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| Hrolf The Ganger 12 Jul 16 7.53pm |
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Originally posted by Mr_Gristle
The facts I deal with? Commercial in Confidence mate ;-) I work in the Analytics and modelling team in a large Commercial Bank. We look backwards, look at now and look forward. Facts, evidence, projection. Beats the previous lives of Prison Service and teaching (although only just in the second instance. So yon need concrete facts to make projections? So how have you used these facts in relation to something that has never happened before and therefore has no previous model to refer to and decide that our best long term option was to remain?
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| Rudi Hedman Caterham 12 Jul 16 7.54pm |
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Originally posted by tome
Farage has said the £350m was a mistake. I guess partly if we did get the EEA option then we'd still have to pay, just have no say. Daniel Hannan from the Leave campaign has said it might not have any effect on migration, as the prevailing view that the value of access to the free trade area is perecieved to be important that having no freedom of movement. If there was virtually no change then I would like to see a couple of things. 1. No requirement to pay for bailouts and other EU mess, whether publicly or secretly (Cameron & Osbourne) 2. Able to agree new trade deals outside of the EU with the growing markets that make up 55% and growing of our exports. 3. Looser ties with the EU that would make no. 2 more profitable and none of the cost of no. 1 which is there to keep the whole thing together and make mainly the Germans and then the French better off. Leave. It'll be finished with a decade or so with the insane levels of debt and unemployment in Southern Europe.
COYP |
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| Hrolf The Ganger 12 Jul 16 7.59pm |
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Originally posted by tome
How are we going to pay for Brexit, that's what I'm curious to know. All these negotiations - with the EU and others - are going to be expesneive. Let alone the cost of finagling the law. And the government's already pushing an austerity ideology. Ask the chancellor. That's his job. Edited by Hrolf The Ganger (12 Jul 2016 8.12pm) Edited by Hrolf The Ganger (12 Jul 2016 8.27pm)
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| nickgusset Shizzlehurst 12 Jul 16 8.06pm |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
Oh a question answered with a question. hypocrite! So Corbyn would borrow more money then? Who are you talking to?
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| Mr_Gristle In the land of Whelk Eaters 12 Jul 16 8.12pm |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
So yon need concrete facts to make projections? So how have you used these facts in relation to something that has never happened before and therefore has no previous model to refer to and decide that our best long term option was to remain? I'd be interested to see projections that were made on anything other than recent historical facts and present day evidence. Hang on, I guess that's exactly what I did see from the Leave Camp ;-) It's not hard to plug in expected exchange rate change ranges and employment sentiment projections from Eu-facing companies in the event of either an In or Out vote. That's what empirical data and up to date client insight is for. The models spit out results based on different variables. If the models have got it wrong, then that's actually a really good thing for the country (and a pretty bad thing for the programmers).
Well I think Simon's head is large; always involved in espionage. (Name that tune) |
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| Hrolf The Ganger 12 Jul 16 8.13pm |
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Originally posted by nickgusset
Who are you talking to? You actually. Sorry with all these left wing remain whingers. I get a bit confused. Edited by Hrolf The Ganger (12 Jul 2016 8.23pm)
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| Hrolf The Ganger 12 Jul 16 8.20pm |
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Originally posted by Mr_Gristle
I'd be interested to see projections that were made on anything other than recent historical facts and present day evidence. Hang on, I guess that's exactly what I did see from the Leave Camp ;-) It's not hard to plug in expected exchange rate change ranges and employment sentiment projections from Eu-facing companies in the event of either an In or Out vote. That's what empirical data and up to date client insight is for. The models spit out results based on different variables. If the models have got it wrong, then that's actually a really good thing for the country (and a pretty bad thing for the programmers). Models are only as good as the programmer and the data you enter into them. This particular model must have been subject to a lot of guess work. Forgive my skepticism.
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| nickgusset Shizzlehurst 12 Jul 16 8.26pm |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
You actually. I see you have edited the post. You don't even blimmin read who is posting what you are answering to. For those that missed it... I'd be interested in your answer to the question though. Edited by nickgusset (12 Jul 2016 8.28pm)
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Attachment: | nickgusset Shizzlehurst 12 Jul 16 8.27pm |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
You actually. Sorry with all these left wing remain whingers. I get a bit confused. Edited by Hrolf The Ganger (12 Jul 2016 8.23pm) I'm not a remain whinger. You obviously don't read properly. Check yer glasses out man.
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