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Transfer strategy

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View deflemonkid's Profile deflemonkid Flag 05 Aug 16 10.28pm Send a Private Message to deflemonkid Add deflemonkid as a friend

Cant remember where it was but Parish did an interview at some stage after the jan transfer window and he said there more to FFP than the actual amount you spend. Theres things in it that govern your wage bill has to be within a certain proportion of the previous season too which would affect how much you can offer to players no matter how much you can outlay on the transfer fee.

 

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View HeathMan's Profile HeathMan Flag Purley 05 Aug 16 10.52pm Send a Private Message to HeathMan Holmesdale Online Elite Member Add HeathMan as a friend

It seems to be a matter of spotting the person who has no chance of game time where he is - Schweinsteiger is a little too old. Picked up some offered odds on the FA Cup today - Chelsea 13/2; Liverpool 11/1 Palace 28/1. A couple of cup runs (no loss before January could help.

 

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View Ginger Pubic Wig's Profile Ginger Pubic Wig Flag Wickham de L'Ouest 06 Aug 16 7.56am Send a Private Message to Ginger Pubic Wig Add Ginger Pubic Wig as a friend

Originally posted by deflemonkid

Cant remember where it was but Parish did an interview at some stage after the jan transfer window and he said there more to FFP than the actual amount you spend. Theres things in it that govern your wage bill has to be within a certain proportion of the previous season too which would affect how much you can offer to players no matter how much you can outlay on the transfer fee.

This, and the fact Benteke would cost 12-13m a year all told if reported prices are right, mean we'd need to sell about 25m of player to buy the big Belgian. (I estimate).

 


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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 06 Aug 16 9.33am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by Ginger Pubic Wig

This, and the fact Benteke would cost 12-13m a year all told if reported prices are right, mean we'd need to sell about 25m of player to buy the big Belgian. (I estimate).

Yeah that's if you plan on having his contract run down and not selling him on renewing his deal.

His wages would be about £6.5 mil and £7.5 mil and the transfer fee divided by 4 or 5 years is the difference between 6/7 and 12/13 millions.

When has Parish let any player run his contract down? (and don't anyone use Nathaniel Clyne)

And your agreement with the other poster on the transfer spend each season, or to be precise, January, has flaws. Mainly Adebayor. We paid him £67k a week. If we could pay him that with FFP we could've paid someone else instead?

And the wage increase allowed was either £12mil or £16mil for every club before league finish money and all other club revenue. It goes up again this season.

After trimming the squad this Summer and another allowed increase in wages I'd say we can afford Benteke's wages. The problem however is how that affects the team and squad when the current highest earner is £80k and the next couple are at £60k and then down to £40k. Having someone come in on £130k must create issues.


Edited by Rudi Hedman (06 Aug 2016 9.49am)

 


COYP

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 06 Aug 16 9.35am Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by ParchmoreEagle

Yeh I feel the same. I wanted these positions improved all last season and I am thrilled that they did it so quick and so cheap. Tomkins is England quality, Townsend is worth more IMO and even in the friendlies was regularly getting in heaps of killer balls that should have been goals, and Mandanda is a French international and HAS to be our No.1 when fit and ready. A great transfer IMO and now just a few more key playes and we're larfing!

I agree the transfers have been very good so far, although I have no idea on Mandanda and keepers don't really feature n my analysis until they've earned however many points, or not cost us points in our case.

But we are only halfway there. We still need 2 forwards and ideally an attacking midfielder/no 10 position. So based on that I'm not ecstatic just yet.

 


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View Ginger Pubic Wig's Profile Ginger Pubic Wig Flag Wickham de L'Ouest 06 Aug 16 11.08pm Send a Private Message to Ginger Pubic Wig Add Ginger Pubic Wig as a friend

Thanks Rudi. The first proper answer. I'm going to think about it. Do you think 130m revenue and 90-100 on net player spend per year are about right?

 


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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 06 Aug 16 11.24pm Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by Ginger Pubic Wig

Thanks Rudi. The first proper answer. I'm going to think about it. Do you think 130m revenue and 90-100 on net player spend per year are about right?

£90 million to £100 million net player spend would bankrupt us very quickly.

Net player spend is: Transfer fees in minus transfer fees out.

Wages strictly for us whilst we're in our stadiumthat is a 1969/1992/1996/1924 updated within main stand go up whatever the league tell us they can go up. We need to maximise corporates whilst were in this shiny tv league. As we've trimmed quite a lot of last resort players we can afford Beteke.

I think you're saying our revenue is £130mil and our total squad spend is £100mil. I'm not sure. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. I haven't looked. What you need to look at is what's allowed to increase each year only until the revenue on matchcday changes and costs in vs costs out in terms of wages. The Benteke deal is really about the wages, the transfer bargaining is not that we cannot afford it, more to look after club funds. Nearly all of Parish's signings are brought in at the age they are because they can be sold on, apart from Cabaye. Good business sense. Benteke fits this as well

If we can manage the issues in the dressing room with Benteke's wages and Benteke will sign, then we should. If either of those 2 are very doubtful, move onto someone else.

Edited by Rudi Hedman (06 Aug 2016 11.36pm)

 


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View Ginger Pubic Wig's Profile Ginger Pubic Wig Flag Wickham de L'Ouest 07 Aug 16 9.39am Send a Private Message to Ginger Pubic Wig Add Ginger Pubic Wig as a friend

Net player spend -- my definition -- is net transfer spend plus everything we spend on wages bonuses etc across the club.

90m spending on that out of 130m seems reasonable to me on that basis. It's 69%. It leaves 30m-40m on other stuff which I think is okay. I am NOT saying net transfer spend of 90m to 100m.

I agree that would bankrupt us but net player spend on the level I describe wouldn't seem unreasonable to me. (Or is it? I'm not looking for an argument, I want facts.)


If I ever said net transfer spend of 90m to 100m, then that was an error.
..

 


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View Ginger Pubic Wig's Profile Ginger Pubic Wig Flag Wickham de L'Ouest 07 Aug 16 10.00am Send a Private Message to Ginger Pubic Wig Add Ginger Pubic Wig as a friend

So here is the basis for 130m of revenue:

[Link]

(About 2/3 of the way down is a table that estimates what TV revenue would be this season if clubs finished in their same position). I then just made a best guess at non TV revenue.

 


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View Ginger Pubic Wig's Profile Ginger Pubic Wig Flag Wickham de L'Ouest 08 Aug 16 6.42pm Send a Private Message to Ginger Pubic Wig Add Ginger Pubic Wig as a friend

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

Yeah that's if you plan on having his contract run down and not selling him on renewing his deal.

His wages would be about £6.5 mil and £7.5 mil and the transfer fee divided by 4 or 5 years is the difference between 6/7 and 12/13 millions.

When has Parish let any player run his contract down? (and don't anyone use Nathaniel Clyne)

And your agreement with the other poster on the transfer spend each season, or to be precise, January, has flaws. Mainly Adebayor. We paid him £67k a week. If we could pay him that with FFP we could've paid someone else instead?

And the wage increase allowed was either £12mil or £16mil for every club before league finish money and all other club revenue. It goes up again this season.

After trimming the squad this Summer and another allowed increase in wages I'd say we can afford Benteke's wages. The problem however is how that affects the team and squad when the current highest earner is £80k and the next couple are at £60k and then down to £40k. Having someone come in on £130k must create issues.


Edited by Rudi Hedman (06 Aug 2016 9.49am)

So I accept you are right that we wouldn't let his contract run down (unless he was such a terrible flop nobody would take him, god forbid).

He's 26 in Dec. So I think a fair assumption is that he'd have zero transfer value at 32. Certainly for budgeting that would seem reasonable.

Now, say we renew his contract with 3 years to go to make it run for 2 more (ie a total of 5, and 8 from when he joined). By then, he's 27 going on 28 and his contract takes him to 32 going on 33.

So we could say 8 years to amortise his transfer fee down to zero. If we assume it's 32.5m, then the cost to us is 4m/year in transfer fees and (a reported) 140k a week of wages (7.28m a year).

So the annual net spend would be 11.28m a year. Assuming we went for net player spend (see earlier definition --I'm sure accountants would have better jargon) of 100m a season he would account for 11% of it.

I promise you: we need to raise a good chunk of change to get him in. I bet, if we still want this, we are trying hard to flog non core players to fund this. Me, I think they'd sell one of Wilf or Yannick for 20-something if they could.


 


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