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Will we stay up?

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View Den1923's Profile Den1923 Flag 19 Dec 16 2.09pm Send a Private Message to Den1923 Add Den1923 as a friend

Originally posted by The Dolphin

I know that statistically last season is irrelevant as points won or lost then do not count but our last 38 games - one whole season - have garnered 28 points - 6 wins and 10 draws and 22 losses.
28 points sees us relegated every season since the inception of the Premier League - I am certainly worried!

Edited by The Dolphin (19 Dec 2016 2.00pm)

Clearly, you are right results from last season have no impact on this season however statistically, the trend does with the points averaging in the region of 0.75 using data from Jan 2016 + 2017 stats to date, the figures are marginally better if use just current season but at 0.88 still a way from the 1.3 plus that we need to average to guarantee safety on 43 points. Even AP is now resorting to luck changing as his latest tactic and I do not know of any team that stays in PL on luck alone. I really fear that we are deep in the brown stuff!

 

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View Part Time James's Profile Part Time James Flag 19 Dec 16 2.17pm Send a Private Message to Part Time James Add Part Time James as a friend

For me, the way we were organised defensively for United and Chelsea was a lot better. Ok so you could argue that at least one goal conceded against these two teams was as the result of bad defensive organisation, but I honestly believe that we were only punished by them because we were playing teams that always punish your mistakes. Set up the same way against some 'lesser' teams (make your own mind up what constitutes a lesser team) and I think we'll avoid being punished for 100% of our mistakes. If we can do that then we'll grab some not very pretty points which will keep us afloat. My only fear comes when I consider whether Pardew will be prudent enough to set up with a similar tactic against 'lesser teams' at least while the ship rights itself again. I'm a little worried that he'll go back to an open attacking tactic again when we're not playing one of the giants. I think we can only afford to do that once we have bagged a few more points and broken this terrible run. That's not Pardew bashing, I'm waiting to see what he does. I think a good manager right now would go into the next few games doing exactly what we did against Chelsea and United. Limit the opposition chances at the expense of our own.

 




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View Den1923's Profile Den1923 Flag 19 Dec 16 2.27pm Send a Private Message to Den1923 Add Den1923 as a friend

Originally posted by Part Time James

For me, the way we were organised defensively for United and Chelsea was a lot better. Ok so you could argue that at least one goal conceded against these two teams was as the result of bad defensive organisation, but I honestly believe that we were only punished by them because we were playing teams that always punish your mistakes. Set up the same way against some 'lesser' teams (make your own mind up what constitutes a lesser team) and I think we'll avoid being punished for 100% of our mistakes. If we can do that then we'll grab some not very pretty points which will keep us afloat. My only fear comes when I consider whether Pardew will be prudent enough to set up with a similar tactic against 'lesser teams' at least while the ship rights itself again. I'm a little worried that he'll go back to an open attacking tactic again when we're not playing one of the giants. I think we can only afford to do that once we have bagged a few more points and broken this terrible run. That's not Pardew bashing, I'm waiting to see what he does. I think a good manager right now would go into the next few games doing exactly what we did against Chelsea and United. Limit the opposition chances at the expense of our own.

Lot depends on what quality players he can attract in the window, the current team is not going to do it not enough talent or desire which we seem to have lost since the beginning of the year, AP is a good cup manager because there you only get one chance and that is win or lose and you move on, the league is requiring a TP approach, at our level and that is to stop teams scoring against you and nick the odd goal and win or draw 0-0 that seems to be beyond AP as he thinks he is a good talented Manager!

 

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View Part Time James's Profile Part Time James Flag 19 Dec 16 2.33pm Send a Private Message to Part Time James Add Part Time James as a friend

Originally posted by Den1923

Lot depends on what quality players he can attract in the window, the current team is not going to do it not enough talent or desire which we seem to have lost since the beginning of the year, AP is a good cup manager because there you only get one chance and that is win or lose and you move on, the league is requiring a TP approach, at our level and that is to stop teams scoring against you and nick the odd goal and win or draw 0-0 that seems to be beyond AP as he thinks he is a good talented Manager!

I agree we need to buy in the window, mainly because I think the losses of Souare and Wickham have meant we need squad replacements for them but I disagree that the current squad couldn't stay up. Mainly because I think the current squad has enough talent to finish above at least three of the really awful teams in this league provided the tactics were sensible of course. But yes, I think 2 or 3 good signings would certainly help the cause!

 




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View spartakev2's Profile spartakev2 Flag Anerley 19 Dec 16 2.39pm Send a Private Message to spartakev2 Add spartakev2 as a friend

Originally posted by Part Time James

I agree we need to buy in the window, mainly because I think the losses of Souare and Wickham have meant we need squad replacements for them but I disagree that the current squad couldn't stay up. Mainly because I think the current squad has enough talent to finish above at least three of the really awful teams in this league provided the tactics were sensible of course. But yes, I think 2 or 3 good signings would certainly help the cause!

Sadly we are one of at least 3 really awful teams. Yes we defended better the last 2 games, but you just know pardew is going to attack Watford and leave us vulnerable at the back.

 

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View Part Time James's Profile Part Time James Flag 19 Dec 16 2.42pm Send a Private Message to Part Time James Add Part Time James as a friend

Originally posted by spartakev2

Sadly we are one of at least 3 really awful teams. Yes we defended better the last 2 games, but you just know pardew is going to attack Watford and leave us vulnerable at the back.

Well that's what I am hoping he won't do. I think if we grind it out in the next few games playing a similar set up to the United and Chelsea games then we won't be one of the awful teams in the league. I share your fear that we won't though, but I'll keep an open mind and perhaps hope our prayers are answered!

 




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View Den1923's Profile Den1923 Flag 19 Dec 16 2.43pm Send a Private Message to Den1923 Add Den1923 as a friend

Originally posted by Part Time James

I agree we need to buy in the window, mainly because I think the losses of Souare and Wickham have meant we need squad replacements for them but I disagree that the current squad couldn't stay up. Mainly because I think the current squad has enough talent to finish above at least three of the really awful teams in this league provided the tactics were sensible of course. But yes, I think 2 or 3 good signings would certainly help the cause!

James, I do agree and hope you are right, its the lack of desire in the current team that really concerns me, a year ago that were all fighting for every ball and we were difficult to score against now the opposite is true for example on Saturday, Benteka who cost us 27/32 mil whoever you believe was just standing around and watching and waiting for the ball to come to him, he was not working the back line and creating spaces for others to run in to and he certainly needs to learn that sometimes you have to help at the back rather than standing around being a spectator he may as well be in the stands and he definitely needs to sharpen up his ball work on the floor as it seems he is only interested in heading balls, I'm thankful for his goals to date but he and we would be much better if he worked harder off the ball!

 

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View geoff's Profile geoff Flag Midhurst 19 Dec 16 2.51pm Send a Private Message to geoff Add geoff as a friend

I hope beyond hope that we stay up. The PL is the place to be! Yes it's a horrible money driven league we have to be in it. Christ we see Benteke in a Palace shirt every week and we have waited long enough to see the likes of that. Should we stay up with our squad.....yes. Can we....... I really am not sure we have the players for a fight!!! I hope we make Watford our turning point and can ditch 2016 and roll on to a better 2017 with improved form and results

 

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jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 19 Dec 16 2.53pm

Originally posted by Part Time James

For me, the way we were organised defensively for United and Chelsea was a lot better. Ok so you could argue that at least one goal conceded against these two teams was as the result of bad defensive organisation, but I honestly believe that we were only punished by them because we were playing teams that always punish your mistakes. Set up the same way against some 'lesser' teams (make your own mind up what constitutes a lesser team) and I think we'll avoid being punished for 100% of our mistakes. If we can do that then we'll grab some not very pretty points which will keep us afloat. My only fear comes when I consider whether Pardew will be prudent enough to set up with a similar tactic against 'lesser teams' at least while the ship rights itself again. I'm a little worried that he'll go back to an open attacking tactic again when we're not playing one of the giants. I think we can only afford to do that once we have bagged a few more points and broken this terrible run. That's not Pardew bashing, I'm waiting to see what he does. I think a good manager right now would go into the next few games doing exactly what we did against Chelsea and United. Limit the opposition chances at the expense of our own.

I'm not even that sure you can say that the goals by Man Utd or Chelsea were even mistakes. The first United goal was the product of a handball and offside. The only real mistake maybe could be giving away the free kick.

Second goal by United was a piece of pure class. Whilst the sub of McArthur for Campbell was bizarre, I don't think it necessarily contributed to anything other than a 'maybe it wouldn't have happened'.

Chelsea, class goal. Perfect ball in, headed home perfectly by a world class striker. Maybe Dann or Hennessy could have put more pressure onto Costa but then maybe we don't also have 30m players in each position....

 


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nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 19 Dec 16 2.57pm

We'll stay up. Our miserable anus of a year 2016 is over soon.

 

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View NickinOX's Profile NickinOX Flag Sailing country. 19 Dec 16 3.02pm Send a Private Message to NickinOX Add NickinOX as a friend

I think Pardew should go, but for those calling for someone like Eddie Howe look at the last 25 games (another random stat like calendar years).

Eddie Howe: p. 25 games; scored 25 points; GD -18.
Alan Pardew: p. 25 games; scored 24 points; GD -8.

One is being lauded as a virtual boy genius, the other is decried as the worst manager in history (judging by some of the rhetoric).

 


If you come to a fork in the road, take it.

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View Den1923's Profile Den1923 Flag 19 Dec 16 3.23pm Send a Private Message to Den1923 Add Den1923 as a friend

Originally posted by NickinOX

I think Pardew should go, but for those calling for someone like Eddie Howe look at the last 25 games (another random stat like calendar years).

Eddie Howe: p. 25 games; scored 25 points; GD -18.
Alan Pardew: p. 25 games; scored 24 points; GD -8.

One is being lauded as a virtual boy genius, the other is decried as the worst manager in history (judging by some of the rhetoric).


Good point, may be the devil we know?

 

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