How many points will we finish with?
My guess is 46.
Wins against Hull and Burnley, two draws from the other three matches.

The right place at the right time

As I was thinking about our bid for safety and all the permutations like MNFS and realistic points for survival, I thought I'd take a look at how many points have been required for Prem survival since it was cut to 20 teams in the 95/96 season.

Season | Points | 17th Place | Minimum points for Safety required

95/96 38 Southampton 38 GD
96/97 41 Coventry 41
97/98 40 Everton 40 GD
98/99 41 Southampton 37
99/00 36 Bradford 34
00/01 42 Derby 35
01/02 40 Sunderland 37
02/03 44 Bolton 43
03/04 39 Everton 34
04/05 34 WBA 33
05/06 38 Portsmouth 35
06/07 38 Wigan 38 GD
07/08 36 Fulham 36 GD
08/09 35 Hull 35
09/10 35 Wet Sham 31
10/11 40 Wolves 40
11/12 37 QPR 37
12/13 39 Sunderland 37
13/14 36 WBA 34
14/15 38 Villa 36
15/16 39 Sunderland 38

The most interesting part of this is not the number of points the 17th placed team accrued but rather how many they could have got away with. Four teams have survived on GD and only four times in the Prem have more than 38 points been required for safety.

Whilst I wouldn't claim we're safe yet (at least not mathematically), I do think we are and believe one more win really would see us 100% safe.

Apologies, it won't let me use tabs.

Edited by sa_eagle (24 Apr 2017 1.21pm)

Edited by sa_eagle (24 Apr 2017 1.22pm)

Cynic or realist? It's a fine line!

I hope we play a full strength team on Wednesday and again on Saturday.
It would be unfair to other top teams to field a weakened side and if we got thumped that would knock the team spirit and confidence.
I bet they can't wait for Wednesday night and although Spurs are the form team right now they will not relish coming to us under the lights.
I thought 37 points was safe but would feel much happier with another win!

Well said! We would be crazy to rest players at this vital stage of the season. They will on the beach in five games time! Bring in PVA and Sakho and that's it. We cannot afford to write off the Spurs game and count on three points against Burnley. This is Palace FFS.

Exactly. Benteke, Zaha and Cabaye got taken off early against the Poo, so Sakho coming back is the only "forced" change, with PvA likely replacing Schlupp by choice. My only other thought is to play Macarthur instead of Townsend in midfield - to help defensively against Alli and Erickson - and bring Andros on later if needed or as a swap for Zaha if he's tiring.

The good news is that (a) Sam is smarter than I, and (2) we have options to replace starters with like quality. It's not running up the white flag to make the changes I am mooting.

Edited by Ray in Houston (24 Apr 2017 2.31pm)

We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.

Totally. Swansea will lose two of their remaining fixtures. Yesterday made us safe.

They have won once in their last 5 games, losing 3.

We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.