Is all American politics like this?

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Seems to be working for Roy Moore. I think it will depend really on what kind of candidate the democrats put up. But I'd be surprised if Trump runs again. I'd be surprised if he even makes it to the end of his term. I expect health grounds, a quiet set down, and handover to the vice president.

But it all will depend on the Muller investigation - If it turns up anything too damaging, the republican party will need to get rid of him, like they did with Nixon.

Problem is, that the opposition keep focusing on the man, and not the policies. His U-Turn compared to his campaign speech on Healthcare barely gets mentioned - when in fact its the complete opposite of his campaign promise.

The Republicans aren't that keen on him, and he's become something of a liability to them.

"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug"
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You are absolutely correct that it is the state-by-state numbers that determine the Presidency. These national polls are good to get a high-level snapshot of public opinion, though.

Trump won the election by winning the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania - each by a few thousand votes out of millions cast. The total count for votes cast in these states for both Trump and Clinton is 13,233,376, with Trump getting a total of 77,744 votes more than Clinton. In none of these states was the margin of Trump's win greater than 1%.

Voters in these states bought in to his economic populism - including promises to raise taxes on the wealthy and never cut social security benefits. Pennsylvania is also home to the coal industry, which Trump famously championed. Well the one major bill that he might yet get to sign this year reneges on all those promises.

A poll from August this year - which notably pre-dates the tax bill that will be felt bigly by voters in these states - had Trump's approval at 33%, 36% and 33% respectively. [Link]

Compared to his vote percentage in those three states during the election of 47%, 47% and 48% respectively, that's an "unpresidented" drop in a single year.

We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.

Roy Moore praises the era of slavery, putin and says America is the focus of evil - [Link]

We've all paid a heavy price to protect the IOUSA petro-dollar.

The sooner it ends the better.

Buy Litecoin.

I, too, think he'll win. I also think he'll serve in the Senate until he retires or dies (such is the state of incumbency in Congress).

The immediate calculus is that his vote may well be needed to pass the reconciled tax bill that will come back to the Senate for a re-vote some time this month. That's the devil's bargain the Republican Party is making right now - the same devil's bargain they made when they embraced and enabled Trump as President. Tax cuts uber alles!

Don't forget that Obamacare repeal was just a tax cut in disguise. They were going to leave the Act mostly in place and just eliminate the things that paid for it, like taxes and the individual mandate. That failed by a single vote; the current tax cut bill passed 51-49 in the Senate, including outgoing Alabama Senator Luther Strange's vote "aye". If Strange is replaced by Jones, not Moore, they're at 50-50 which is still a win with the tie being broken by Mike Pence, but it puts them in a vote crunch that gives any one Republican Senator extraordinary leverage to extract a high price for his or her vote.

Even with Moore, a single flip (like Susan Collins of Maine) puts them back in the tie scenario. Without Moore, the bill would die the death of Obamacare repeal. Unlike Obamacare repeal, there isn't a time bar on them bringing this up again (and again and again) if they need to. But I'm not sure they can implement it for 2018 if it's not signed before the end of 2017.

We don't do possession; we do defense and attack. Everything else is just wa**ing with a football.