The run in (LOCKED)
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 cardiff eagle  09 Apr 18 1.17pm |
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Originally posted by Willo
Odds are influenced by the betting patterns and the amounts placed. You assert that Bookies employ people who know what they are talking about - based on this thinking, bookies are often wrong accordingly their employees whom you hold in such esteem are perhaps not as fallible as you believe. if bookies were often wrong, there'd be none left in business! As it is, they employ skilled people and analyses data impartially to determine probability and odds of an event occurring. As it is, they have us 5 teams more likely to get relegated than us. This doesn't mean we can't get relegated but it means at this point in time there is more chance of us staying up than going down according to them
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chris123  hove actually 09 Apr 18 1.18pm |
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Originally posted by Willo
With the greatest of respect my view has not been influenced by the late Arsenal goal. Southampton were vastly improved from the team that played W.Ham so whilst they lost they can take heart from the narrow defeat.It did look as though they would hang on for a point. In attack they can call on Austin,Carrillo,Gabbiadini and Long whereas we ae somewhat bereft in that department.On the bench yesterday they had attacking options in Redmond,Gabbiadini and Austin and of course Austin came on to score.We just don't have a bench containing players who can come on and turn the game around.If we had been 2-1 down to Arsenal I doubt if we would have got back to 2-2. On Saturday, Southampton play first at 12.30 against a Chelsea team who haven't performed too well in their last 2 games and a win for Southampton will take us into the bottom three with Brighton to follow and they won't be taking it easy against us ! Could be a horrible Saturday for us. I'd take our run in over Southampton's any day of the week.
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chateauferret  09 Apr 18 1.26pm |
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Originally posted by Willo
I believe I stated that it was my INTENTION and never posted for perhaps a couple of weeks at the start of the year.In any event,in life is one NOT permitted to re-evaluate and act accordingly ? I take it everyone realises he was lurking throughout? Willo, the odds against us going down are 8 / 1 or thereby so if you're really that confident I suggest you get down the bookies'.
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| Willo South coast - west of Brighton. 09 Apr 18 1.27pm |
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Originally posted by cardiff eagle
if bookies were often wrong, there'd be none left in business! As it is, they employ skilled people and analyses data impartially to determine probability and odds of an event occurring. As it is, they have us 5 teams more likely to get relegated than us. This doesn't mean we can't get relegated but it means at this point in time there is more chance of us staying up than going down according to them To let you into a secret - I do know about probability and statistics,random variables,quantitative data etc etc etc. ! Mind you, it was a long time ago ! But of course this does mean I am a more esteemed person than any other on here or that I am high on the 'Totem Pole'.
Edited by Willo (09 Apr 2018 1.28pm)
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| Rudi Hedman Caterham 09 Apr 18 1.30pm |
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Originally posted by chateauferret
I take it everyone realises he was lurking throughout? Willo, the odds against us going down are 8 / 1 or thereby so if you're really that confident I suggest you get down the bookies'. He doesn't have the balls. Or he's lost the same bet over the last 4 seasons. More likely the former.
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| Rudi Hedman Caterham 09 Apr 18 1.32pm |
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Originally posted by cardiff eagle
if bookies were often wrong, there'd be none left in business! As it is, they employ skilled people and analyses data impartially to determine probability and odds of an event occurring. As it is, they have us 5 teams more likely to get relegated than us. This doesn't mean we can't get relegated but it means at this point in time there is more chance of us staying up than going down according to them Willo is right actually. The bookies now follow the markets apart from well before the event is due to start, like ante post, the night before a race, before the season starts. Once there's liquidity in betfair then the bookies follow the back odds and knock off their business model percentage on their odds.
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| Willo South coast - west of Brighton. 09 Apr 18 1.37pm |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
He doesn't have the balls. Or he's lost the same bet over the last 4 seasons. More likely the former. To be totally honest I do not engage in any gambling activity of this nature. As someone once said to me "The day I see a Bookie riding an old bike with his a..e hanging out of his trousers is the day I will have a bet".
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| Rudi Hedman Caterham 09 Apr 18 1.46pm |
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Originally posted by Willo
To be totally honest I do not engage in any gambling activity of this nature. As someone once said to me "The day I see a Bookie riding an old bike with his a..e hanging out of his trousers is the day I will have a bet". So you aren't convinced at all that we're going down. I.e - full of sh1t. You've been severely discredited on this thread. All your logic is flawed and bollox. The real truth is our survival rests on availability of a few players. Mainly Zaha, but nobody can predict their availability accurately enough.
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| Willo South coast - west of Brighton. 09 Apr 18 1.54pm |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
So you aren't convinced at all that we're going down. I.e - full of sh1t. You've been severely discredited on this thread. All your logic is flawed and bollox. The real truth is our survival rests on availability of a few players. Mainly Zaha, but nobody can predict their availability accurately enough. I have been convinced for a while. And how have I been "Discredited" ? All I have done is to give my opinion as to our prospects.
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| victor43 St. Albans 09 Apr 18 1.55pm |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
Willo is right actually. The bookies now follow the markets apart from well before the event is due to start, like ante post, the night before a race, before the season starts. Once there's liquidity in betfair then the bookies follow the back odds and knock off their business model percentage on their odds. If you two are correct (that the bookies odds are only based on level of betting once the season has started), which I don't believe is true, then how about the estimations by 538 here: [Link] If you are so certain your model is better than this or the bookies - as someone said, you could earn a fortune betting against us.
Blog: Andy Johnson's Magic Hat [Link] Twitter: [Tweet Link]
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| Rudi Hedman Caterham 09 Apr 18 2.03pm |
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Originally posted by victor43
If you two are correct (that the bookies odds are only based on level of betting once the season has started), which I don't believe is true, then how about the estimations by 538 here: [Link] If you are so certain your model is better than this or the bookies - as someone said, you could earn a fortune betting against us. It is true. Betfair odds are almost 100% efficient and accurate. The bookies follow the exchange, minus 0.1 or 0.2 or 0.5 points. They all do, bar one or two, line BlackType.
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| ger20 London 09 Apr 18 2.05pm |
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trying to predict football results is an exercise in futility, it depends on so many factors, (Red cards, injuries, missed penalties). Southampton played a weakened Arsenal team and will be playing a demoralised Chelsea on Saturday, will Chelsea turn up is anybodies guess. The fact is that we have things in our own hands considering some of the teams around us have six pointers and games against top teams in which they will surely drop points. Roy says he is confident so we have to believe him as our first eleven is better than all around us.
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