The Election Thread
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 Matov  18 Nov 19 10.09am |
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Originally posted by dollardays
Westminster voting intention: CON: 42% (+7) LAB: 28% (-1) LibDem: 13% (-4) BREX: 5% (-5) GRN: 3% (+2) via @Survation, 14- 16 Nov Chgs. w/ 8 Nov [To correctly judge the effect of parties that have stood down candidates, respondents were read out the names of the parties and candidates standing in their own constituency. This is the first poll to fully incorporate party standings in each seat. Results are therefore not directly comparable to any previous polling conducted.] Quite a bump for the Tories there. It looks like Brexit selectively stepping down might prove game over for this election. I guess it does logically make sense that the vote that split the least would win out, and it's hard to get beyond that thought unless something really drastic changes over the next couple of weeks. Saw some analysis from marginals and supposedly the Tories are leading by margins of 20%. But in the 2017 election they had a similar lead, if not bigger, at this stage and we all know how that ended. For me given the overwhelming nature of the Brexit issue in terms of how this election is being fought, I truly struggle to see much beyond a comfortable Tory win. Again apologies for the tedium of it, but the constituency break down from June 2016 and the Euro elections of earlier show a country that wants out the EU and want it done quickly. There is zero mainstream appetite for another referendum that settles nothing for a variety of reasons if the first one is not implemented. I just cannot see where Labour gain seats in sufficient number to even think about forming a Government. But who knows? Politics in the last few years has been beyond any rational understanding so to be fair to the Left/R2's it is all to play for. One area I am willing to stick my neck out on is that I feel the SNP might not do as well as people think. They are noisy and get a lot of air-time but actually on the ground up in Scotland not that loved anymore (actually bloody incompetent when it comes to real Governance and with a huge scandal due to break when old Salmond hits the courts). I can see the Tories holding on to a fair few of their seats up there.
"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell. |
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| Badger11 Beckenham 18 Nov 19 10.27am |
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Originally posted by Matov
Saw some analysis from marginals and supposedly the Tories are leading by margins of 20%. But in the 2017 election they had a similar lead, if not bigger, at this stage and we all know how that ended. For me given the overwhelming nature of the Brexit issue in terms of how this election is being fought, I truly struggle to see much beyond a comfortable Tory win. Again apologies for the tedium of it, but the constituency break down from June 2016 and the Euro elections of earlier show a country that wants out the EU and want it done quickly. There is zero mainstream appetite for another referendum that settles nothing for a variety of reasons if the first one is not implemented. I just cannot see where Labour gain seats in sufficient number to even think about forming a Government. But who knows? Politics in the last few years has been beyond any rational understanding so to be fair to the Left/R2's it is all to play for. One area I am willing to stick my neck out on is that I feel the SNP might not do as well as people think. They are noisy and get a lot of air-time but actually on the ground up in Scotland not that loved anymore (actually bloody incompetent when it comes to real Governance and with a huge scandal due to break when old Salmond hits the courts). I can see the Tories holding on to a fair few of their seats up there. I hope your right it's disgraceful that the SNP have been getting away with it for years just because they bleat "Independence". I can understand a Scot who wants independence just not the SNP. As for Alex Salmond well Ian Dale kept saying that the SNP wanted a GE now before the court case in January, sounds like that will be pretty ugly.
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| deleted user 18 Nov 19 10.29am |
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Originally posted by Badger11
Yesterday Corbyn gave a interview where he sat on the fence on a number of big issues or simply didn't clarify his position. Not a good look if you want to be leader of the country. The voters are entitled to ask well what am I voting for? If I was a Remainer I would be very suspicious of voting for Labour as Corbyn did more ducking and diving than Frank Bruno. My completely unscientific take on the mood of the country is this: Brexit voters are still determined to leave and will vote for Johnson except where the Tories have no chance then its the Brexit party. Remainers must be disillusioned as the only viable option is the Lib Dems. My guess is that many Remainers will therefore grudgingly except that Brexit is a done deal and will therefore vote for parties that reflect their other concerns. Labour may still pick up reluctant Remainer voters this way and will do well in the cities. I also wouldn't be surprised if after the GE it turns out that Remainers stayed home in larger numbers that Brexit voters. As for the leaders: Johnson looks like he is in charge, love him or hate him. Johnson has managed to rid himself of the rebels in his party so he now has a united front on Brexit. Unless Labour can find some dirt that will stick he will be PM. Corbyn looks like he is a prisoner of his own party not quite able to say what he really wants to for fear of splitting the party. Over 100 Labour MPs have signed a letter stating they will fight to remain which is against official Labour party policy. 3/4 years on Corbyn has the same problem as the day he was elected leader, his MPs don't want him a problem he had not solved and never will. Jo Swinson - Who? She had hoped this would be her time as millions of Labour Remain voters switch to her party and put her in power. As I said above I think the Remain vote has collapsed so apart from the die hards I don't see any real movement towards the Lib Dems. They will do better than the 2017 GE but will they reach the 20 plus MPs they had just before Boris called this one? Greens will improve on their vote and may pick up the odd MP (and there are plenty of odd MPs about) but with all of the major parties promising actions on Green affairs no breakthrough for them. SNP will clean up in Scotland and will demand Indyref2 which is the next big crisis that Boris will face. The rest same old same old.
A good assessment across the board really. There always this constant back and forth between Corbyn's outlook and that of the wider party, and since it's not the greatest fit, there's never any clarity on policy. It's always, 'if it passes our five tests' and the like. When people don't know what they're voting for they're less likely to bother. I do get that they were somewhat stuck between a rock and a hard place since the Tories and the Lib Dems eventually carved out at least somewhat clear positions. Realistically Labour they had to get off the fence and be all out remain if they wanted to have a hope of winning this election. That way they would absorb most of the Lib dem vote, in much the same way that the Tories look to have subdued the Brexit Party vote. They understood at least that this election is about policy rather than party and so all that matters is the core message, not the mayhem along the way. It's not a time where keeping all camps within a party happy works or should be the primary aim. A policy of having another referendum is inherently unappealing to almost everybody, when it's in the presence of other options that support leave and remain. A good point on the Greens too. They will likely make small gains. As you say, they'll never get a sniff of power, but I do quite like the potential for influence of parties that are at their core single issue. We've seen the success that UKIP and Brexit Party have had in that regard. Edited by dollardays (18 Nov 2019 10.30am)
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| deleted user 18 Nov 19 10.40am |
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Originally posted by Matov
Saw some analysis from marginals and supposedly the Tories are leading by margins of 20%. But in the 2017 election they had a similar lead, if not bigger, at this stage and we all know how that ended. For me given the overwhelming nature of the Brexit issue in terms of how this election is being fought, I truly struggle to see much beyond a comfortable Tory win. Again apologies for the tedium of it, but the constituency break down from June 2016 and the Euro elections of earlier show a country that wants out the EU and want it done quickly. There is zero mainstream appetite for another referendum that settles nothing for a variety of reasons if the first one is not implemented. I tend to agree. Society is fatigued by the endless nature of all of this, and I do see the offer of a second referendum as a big political misstep. It feeds into the never-ending perception of all of this, and how many people have yet to make their mind up about Brexit? Very few. And so in an environment where there are relatively clear party choices for both leave and remain, I fail to see how many will exhibit much passion for the idea of another vote. Certainly in 2017 there was a real shift as polling day approaches, but I don't think we're working with the same ingredients this time around. Of course I could be wrong, as these are strange times, but unless polling numbers shift in a dramatic way over the next week or so, it's looking like a Conservative majority to me.
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| Willo South coast - west of Brighton. 18 Nov 19 11.02am |
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Originally posted by dollardays
I tend to agree. Society is fatigued by the endless nature of all of this, and I do see the offer of a second referendum as a big political misstep. It feeds into the never-ending perception of all of this, and how many people have yet to make their mind up about Brexit? Very few. And so in an environment where there are relatively clear party choices for both leave and remain, I fail to see how many will exhibit much passion for the idea of another vote. Certainly in 2017 there was a real shift as polling day approaches, but I don't think we're working with the same ingredients this time around. Of course I could be wrong, as these are strange times, but unless polling numbers shift in a dramatic way over the next week or so, it's looking like a Conservative majority to me. The Conservative manifesto and campaign were totally abject and contributed towards the party not getting a overall majority. It was widely expected that Theresa May would get a comfortable majority, hence why she called an election, but she was let down by those she trusted.
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| deleted user 18 Nov 19 11.10am |
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Originally posted by Willo
The Conservative manifesto and campaign were totally abject and contributed towards the party not getting a overall majority. It was widely expected that Theresa May would get a comfortable majority, hence why she called an election, but she was let down by those she trusted. Agreed and consequently I'm not sure where the additional votes will come from for Labour. At this stage, it's the Conservatives to lose.
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| Willo South coast - west of Brighton. 18 Nov 19 11.14am |
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Originally posted by dollardays
There is still a while to go to polling day,with manifestos still to be released and there might be some 'Banana skins' along the way. As a Conservative campaigner, I am taking nothing for granted at all as we have a volatile electorate with many factors entering the equation.I have a feeling that should the Conservatives win, it might not be by the margin currently being indicated in the polls. Edited by Willo (18 Nov 2019 11.16am)
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| Badger11 Beckenham 18 Nov 19 11.31am |
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Originally posted by dollardays
I tend to agree. Society is fatigued by the endless nature of all of this, and I do see the offer of a second referendum as a big political misstep. It feeds into the never-ending perception of all of this, and how many people have yet to make their mind up about Brexit? Very few. And so in an environment where there are relatively clear party choices for both leave and remain, I fail to see how many will exhibit much passion for the idea of another vote. Certainly in 2017 there was a real shift as polling day approaches, but I don't think we're working with the same ingredients this time around. Of course I could be wrong, as these are strange times, but unless polling numbers shift in a dramatic way over the next week or so, it's looking like a Conservative majority to me. Agreed if you are genuinely undecided about Brexit then Labour's policy makes sense, kinda. But you are correct most people have already made their minds up and just want it resolved one way or the other. Labour's policy then smacks of prevarication Corbyn would rather talk about anything else than Brexit as he knows he is stronger on the more traditional elections topics. The problem he has is that whilst he can genuinely point out the Tories failures in the NHS, police etc. I don't think he convinces people he has the answer. You can have all the policies in the world but if the economy is in the toilet it means nothing. Squeezing the rich appeals to people who are committed Labour supporters and the type of person who scratches a Ferrari with their keys (but they don't vote). I'm not sure it convinces the undecided as it smacks of jealousy.
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| Matov 18 Nov 19 11.48am |
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Originally posted by dollardays
Certainly in 2017 there was a real shift as polling day approaches, but I don't think we're working with the same ingredients this time around. There are three main issues in this election. Brexit. Brexit and Brexit. That is it. Last time around Labour negated the Tory position by agreeing with them. They would honour the vote. Now? All they are offering is more Brexit. Not an end to it. A fatal error. Done their own legs before the race even began.
"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell. |
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| Midlands Eagle 18 Nov 19 11.49am |
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Originally posted by Badger11
Greens will improve on their vote and may pick up the odd MP (and there are plenty of odd MPs about) but with all of the major parties promising actions on Green affairs no breakthrough for them. I don't see the Greens adding any more to their single MP representation as their votes tend to be well spread across the country but never enough in any single constituency to win them a seat. The exception is Brighton which is where the oddballs live and they are happy to vote in a Green MP despite the Green local council making such a mess of running Brighton and I say that in the knowledge that my own daughter is a prospective Green councillor
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| Willo South coast - west of Brighton. 18 Nov 19 12.03pm |
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Originally posted by Matov
There are three main issues in this election. Brexit. Brexit and Brexit. That is it. Last time around Labour negated the Tory position by agreeing with them. They would honour the vote. Now? All they are offering is more Brexit. Not an end to it. A fatal error. Done their own legs before the race even began. And Labour are trying to move the debate in the campaign away from Brexit for obvious reasons.
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| steeleye20 Croydon 18 Nov 19 12.22pm |
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Originally posted by Willo
And Labour are trying to move the debate in the campaign away from Brexit for obvious reasons. Rightly so. The main issues are being identified by labour. I don't think spouting 'get brexit done' or 'Corbyn is a marxist' is going down well at all. Can't talk about their record, obviously. Prepared for a shock.
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