Coronavirus (LOCKED)
Register | Edit Profile | Subscriptions | Forum Rules | Log In | RSS Feed
 cardiff eagle  31 Mar 20 10.46am |
  |
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by Stirlingsays
21 per million is approximate.....22 per million give you 1452 and hence 21 is more accurate. I never gave you an end figure, the 21 per million is the now figure. I disagree with you on these as best measures. People will lose their homes and jobs here and lives will also be lost. There were other approaches and the government even started out with them.
Lol that's not how stats work! You can't divide current deaths over total population to get a death rate when the total population don't have it. If you were to say the current positive number is probably higher by a magnitude of 25 that would probably be fair and give around 500k cases. The death rate would then be 0.3% which would still give circa 190k deaths. Having said this, i'm not a million miles from your approach but less bullish. I think we stick with this for 3 months and in the meantime we have to ramp up testing massively so those who have already had it can go back to work and those who are positive can isolate away. Equally, it gives us time to not find a vaccine (as that's ages away) but test existing anti-virals to see which ones may have an impact and reduce the impact of the virus. We have time now to delay the peak and act which is what I think we're doing. But this does need to be time limited as otherwise the impact of a huge recession (which is what i think would happen if this went on for over 3 months) would be worse than the impact of just letting the virus out. This is in terms of lives and not just financials. I don't think an approach of just letting everyone roam free now would be wise.
|
|
 Alert a moderator to this post |
 |
Rudi Hedman  Caterham 31 Mar 20 10.57am |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by Stirlingsays
Japan, aren't the only first world country to have low figures and be taking a different approach. I haven't really looked (at Germany), but I imagine the European approach has been similar. It all comes down to leadership. From my perspective I have a little sympathy because until we knew what were were dealing with (and China lied as usual) then it was difficult to know how to proceed......I guess I'm saying that the initial approach is what we should have held to....allied to those national reponses.....It will be interesting to see how long it takes for the two new temporary hospitals to open. I regard what is happening as absurd. Who are we comparing ourselves to then? If Germany have the same rate of cases but fewer deaths (down to their ingenuity they still have probably) then who are we comparing with? Once the virus landed in Europe, and consequently USA, there have been mistakes all over the place. The one major error was keeping flights, travel and arrivals from anywhere going. That is the real error. These viruses are a SE Asian problem and always were, only our leaders and economies have imported it without the methods to deal with it nobody would expect us to have and would think it was a waste of public money anyway. I am not surprised Japan, China and South Korea dealt with it. I’m not surprised India can’t deal with it. I’m not surprised Europe has struggled with it. But I am surprised travel kept going on. That was madness.
COYP |
|
| Alert a moderator to this post |
|
| Stirlingsays 31 Mar 20 11.07am |
 |
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by cardiff eagle
Lol that's not how stats work! You can't divide current deaths over total population to get a death rate when the total population don't have it. If you were to say the current positive number is probably higher by a magnitude of 25 that would probably be fair and give around 500k cases. The death rate would then be 0.3% which would still give circa 190k deaths. I didn't just decide to do that myself. It comes from official stats and is just one of many used. It shows how many are dying by scale right now. It's certainly true more will die.....Personally I have the estimate at 30,000. A tragic percent of whom were...to be blunt...on their last legs. Edited by Stirlingsays (31 Mar 2020 11.16am)
'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen) |
|
| Alert a moderator to this post |
|
| Stirlingsays 31 Mar 20 11.13am |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
Who are we comparing ourselves to then? If Germany have the same rate of cases but fewer deaths (down to their ingenuity they still have probably) then who are we comparing with? Once the virus landed in Europe, and consequently USA, there have been mistakes all over the place. The one major error was keeping flights, travel and arrivals from anywhere going. That is the real error. These viruses are a SE Asian problem and always were, only our leaders and economies have imported it without the methods to deal with it nobody would expect us to have and would think it was a waste of public money anyway. I am not surprised Japan, China and South Korea dealt with it. I’m not surprised India can’t deal with it. I’m not surprised Europe has struggled with it. But I am surprised travel kept going on. That was madness. Over the coming months, what's happened is going to be analysed to death....no pun intended.
'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen) |
|
| Alert a moderator to this post |
|
| johnno42000 31 Mar 20 11.13am |
|
|---|---|
|
I agree with Lord Sumption to an extent, as I agree with the Peter Hitchens articles regarding the taking away of our freedoms. However I'm not sure what other course you can take when, sensible people would stay home as much as is humanly possible even without the new rules, but the dim self abusers would still congregate in groups? What could you do to stop this apart from the draconian measures that have been taken?
'Lies to the masses as are like fly's to mollasses...they want more and more and more' |
|
| Alert a moderator to this post |
|
| chris123 hove actually 31 Mar 20 11.16am |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by johnno42000
I agree with Lord Sumption to an extent, as I agree with the Peter Hitchens articles regarding the taking away of our freedoms. However I'm not sure what other course you can take when, sensible people would stay home as much as is humanly possible even without the new rules, but the dim self abusers would still congregate in groups? What could you do to stop this apart from the draconian measures that have been taken? Well I agree with front line NHS staff.
|
|
| Alert a moderator to this post |
|
| johnno42000 31 Mar 20 11.18am |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by chris123
Well I agree with front line NHS staff. Don't you worry about the freedoms being taken away? What's to stop them not being given back? I'd imagine crime figures are down, what government wouldn't want to keep that going? Edited by johnno42000 (31 Mar 2020 11.19am)
'Lies to the masses as are like fly's to mollasses...they want more and more and more' |
|
| Alert a moderator to this post |
|
| Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 31 Mar 20 11.19am |
|
|---|---|
|
They are interesting and valuable. They mirror some of the sceptical comment I have seen from a few of my American friends. These arguments are bound to be known by those responsible for managing this, both here and elsewhere. It looks to me as though we have decided to limit the spread as quickly and effectively as possible simply because we don't have the resources to handle the huge surge that would result if we didn't and there would have then been a public outcry. Managing the economic fallout can be done over time and is therefore a problem postponed. Nevertheless, I do expect that the brakes will come off slowly once the peak has been reached and flattened. By then more widespread testing will be available, along with more, and better, resources and hopefully effective anti viral drugs to help improve outcomes. If we can reduce the impact then we can manage the pandemic whilst life gradually resumes some level of normality. I am sure social distancing will continue to be encouraged and we may find ourselves all being expected to wear face masks in public to limit further spread. Maybe my bowls season isn't yet a total write off!
For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally. |
|
| Alert a moderator to this post |
|
| chris123 hove actually 31 Mar 20 11.30am |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by johnno42000
Don't you worry about the freedoms being taken away? What's to stop them not being given back? I'd imagine crime figures are down, what government wouldn't want to keep that going? Edited by johnno42000 (31 Mar 2020 11.19am) Not right now, no.
|
|
| Alert a moderator to this post |
|
| Rudi Hedman Caterham 31 Mar 20 11.45am |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by johnno42000
I agree with Lord Sumption to an extent, as I agree with the Peter Hitchens articles regarding the taking away of our freedoms. However I'm not sure what other course you can take when, sensible people would stay home as much as is humanly possible even without the new rules, but the dim self abusers would still congregate in groups? What could you do to stop this apart from the draconian measures that have been taken? Notice that all of the people publicly complaining about loss of freedoms own half a county or 200 acres and are at no risk whatsoever.
COYP |
|
| Alert a moderator to this post |
|
| Rudi Hedman Caterham 31 Mar 20 11.48am |
|
|---|---|
|
‘We should be asking questions like “How did you find out this virus was dangerous?”, “How was it before?”, “Didn’t we have the same thing last year?”, “Is it even something new?” That’s missing.’ Sounds like a crackpot who should retire from student skunk.
COYP |
|
| Alert a moderator to this post |
|
| Stirlingsays 31 Mar 20 11.50am |
|
|---|---|
|
'Managing the economic fallout can be done over time and is therefore a problem postponed.' My mind is blown.....it wasn't as though we weren't in huge debt s***e in the first place. Just how long are boomers going to justify stealing from future generations?....Why shouldn't they do it as well eh. The working poor and those 'just about managing' are going to have and are already having their lives wrecked....but a reduced bowls season eh. You say you run a business....Well, I genuinely hope it's ok.
'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen) |
|
| Alert a moderator to this post |
|
Login / Register
All images and text on this site are copyright © 1999-2023 The Holmesdale Online, unless otherwise stated.
Web Design by Guntrisoft Ltd.