You don't need to 'explain what it is'. I'm not saying that there is exponential growth here right now, I'm stating that where the rate does increase, with zero measures against in place that is what can happen especially in high population areas. Of course months into lockdown there isn't going to be exponential growth, it drops off and is in decline.

Also there is always a delay in the numbers, because it's often around 2 to 3 weeks total before people get infected, display symptoms and sometimes are hospitalised - with death numbers trending up in another 3 weeks or so - so numbers weeks into lockdown are obviously going to be much higher than just prior to it. You appear to be trying to say that 'not being in lockdown' was more effective than lockdown because the numbers went up afterwards. That's obviously nonsense. The numbers went up initially, due to, you guessed it.. exponential growth of people infecting others!

Take Florida, a lax approach, and people losing their minds over being asked to wear masks. A month back there was around 600 cases a day, the next week 1000, the next 2000, the next 3-4000, the next 8-10000 . That's exponential growth, and even if they get the r0 down to 1 or even below, there's an incredible number of people able to pass it on compared to if there were not so you won't suddenly be having numbers of 100 a day. Logically, you can expect to be seeing numbers there of 15-20,000 daily in maybe ten days time , hospitals starting to struggle and a very significant increase in covid-19 deaths in 4-6 weeks time.

You do realise that it's possible to believe that healthy people, say young people, and even the under 60s should get back to work and on with life, but also not to be in denial about how covid-19 is capable of spreading exponentially where few measures are taken to hinder it? Not everything is 'pick a side'. The two aren't mutually exclusive positions. They are both aspects of reality.

Edited by BlueJay (04 Jul 2020 2.12am)

I gave examples both here and abroad that are clearly exponential growth. If you want to call it something else that's for you. While I appreciate that the recent demonstrations are the centre of the universe for many, 99.99% of people did not attend them, they were outside and vast numbers that did wore masks. I think it's easy to lose sight of how much socialising went on prior to lockdown compared to at this time.

I'm not saying that numbers here will rise significantly again if we are careful - tho if we don't they probably will. I'm commenting on locations where the rate is essentially doubling every week or so, putting them in a difficult spot because it's then very hard to get the numbers back down. They don't, outside of dreamworld, go from 10,000 a day to 1000 or 100 without measures put in place to make them do so. Therefore the best strategy is to have sensible measures in place before that level of exponential growth even occurs to avoid constantly being stuck at that high number even if measures then brought in do keep the r0 rate at around 1.

My last paragraph meant that it's possible to accept ideas do not perfectly align. Yes, we should get on with life, and I'd argue that if we'd introduced masks and sanitiser everywhere initially maybe the lockdown could've even been avoided, 'but' also yes the viral can spread fast where sensible measures to limit spread are ignored and very high numbers create a far more complex situation to unravel. If you feel my view is bollox or that people are brainwashed if they disagree with you than that's fine And if western society is 'pathetic' you can always move to Brazil .

Edited by BlueJay (04 Jul 2020 3.53am)

[Tweet Link]

Edited by Rudi Hedman (04 Jul 2020 10.17am)

COYP

Anonymous doctor speaks out over the lockdown in Leicester and overall lockdown.

[Link]

COYP

Is that DANH on the bridge lol

Hmm I was more thinking corporal Jones.

One more point