For me there will always be a huge question mark over countries that didn’t have compulsory mask wearing in indoor public places just before cases and spread rates rise again. Germans are an obedient rule liking and following culture I’m surprised they didn’t. It cannot be denied it’s a factor in the rise. By how much is the question. Needs a country releasing from lockdown with compulsory mask wearing to provide stats. Scotland isn’t big enough. We should do it.

It comes down to wise implementation one after another and the testing wasn’t for nothing. Cases and lives were controlled and their health service under less pressure. They have more intensive care than the U.K. as well. Also, an R1 rate of infection isn’t out of control and can be brought back down again. I don’t ever see a moment in time where we can say we will have got it right more than the Germans. Tell me when in the last handful of decades we have in anything, apart from humour and entertainment.

We can’t even bloody report or record accurately whereas they can.

I get your point that on an individual level a test is only valid for a day. Seconds actually. But we aren’t basing this on one person or one day. It’s based on millions of people and percentages and over a much longer time period. And the Germans will probably have tested their population more than once or even twice by the time we’ve said the general public can apply on the website and crash the site at midnight.

The Germans are always light years ahead of us.

Edited by Rudi Hedman (29 Apr 2020 2.55pm)

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But they're german.

There is always an answer but we are so near the start of this that it is impossible to say anything for certain. The first cases were not identified until December so we are barely past the start line. I suspect that it will not be until this time next year, at the earliest, that any firm kind of conclusions can be reached and even then, still perhaps more questions than answers.

Where I detect the real confusion is around the R0 factor for the virus. And although they claim it is between 2.4 up to around 3.5 there are so many outliers. For example in Northern Spain they identified 60 people infected at a funeral from one single person. And then you get the mass outbreaks in Carehomes, even now with a heightened sense of security. And on a French Aircraft Carrier, 1200 out of a crew of 1600 were infected although of these, 50% were asymptomatic.

Something is not adding up, at least on that score.

Now this is PURE speculation but I have seen claims that there might be three very specific strains. Each has the same symptoms but with a differing rate of ability to infect others. It offers an explanation of sorts for why there are some mass-infections going on but I do have to stress that there is no official back up for this, at least just yet.

Edited by Matov (29 Apr 2020 9.21pm)

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

And it could end up being Stamford bridge, then old Trafford then Wembley.

Adam Boulton on sky news has just said the R0 number in Germany is currently R0.76. I don’t know if they R0.96 number was an error or not but it gives us some optimism.

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