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View Mapletree's Profile Mapletree Flag Croydon 05 Aug 20 5.38pm Send a Private Message to Mapletree Add Mapletree as a friend

We need to open schools. The only way to do that safely is with strong testing. But in my opinion school-based testing won't be available in September. I expect both LamPore and DnaNudge to come through in October/November time. By then we may well have been hit with a second wave if schools have opened. This is real seat of the pants stuff at the moment. I am afraid it doesn't look good, a triumph of hope over reality.

 

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View steeleye20's Profile steeleye20 Flag Croydon 05 Aug 20 6.08pm Send a Private Message to steeleye20 Add steeleye20 as a friend

Originally posted by Mapletree

We need to open schools. The only way to do that safely is with strong testing. But in my opinion school-based testing won't be available in September. I expect both LamPore and DnaNudge to come through in October/November time. By then we may well have been hit with a second wave if schools have opened. This is real seat of the pants stuff at the moment. I am afraid it doesn't look good, a triumph of hope over reality.

I take it you are not applying for the Johnson-balls spokesman vacancy then M?

It is £100,000 per anuum still there are just some things that are beyond the pale........

Imagine having to talk that s***e in front of millions.

Gary Lineker?


 

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 05 Aug 20 6.10pm Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by Mapletree

We need to open schools. The only way to do that safely is with strong testing. But in my opinion school-based testing won't be available in September. I expect both LamPore and DnaNudge to come through in October/November time. By then we may well have been hit with a second wave if schools have opened. This is real seat of the pants stuff at the moment. I am afraid it doesn't look good, a triumph of hope over reality.

What is the danger or risk you think there is with schools?

 


COYP

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View Spiderman's Profile Spiderman Flag Horsham 05 Aug 20 6.48pm Send a Private Message to Spiderman Add Spiderman as a friend

Originally posted by steeleye20

I take it you are not applying for the Johnson-balls spokesman vacancy then M?

It is £100,000 per anuum still there are just some things that are beyond the pale........

Imagine having to talk that s***e in front of millions.

Gary Lineker?


Well if he doesn’t it will be about the only job he hasn’t done! With his record he is probably over qualified

Edited by Spiderman (05 Aug 2020 6.49pm)

 

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View Mapletree's Profile Mapletree Flag Croydon 05 Aug 20 6.55pm Send a Private Message to Mapletree Add Mapletree as a friend

Originally posted by Spiderman

Well if he doesn’t it will be about the only job he hasn’t done! With his record he is probably over qualified

Edited by Spiderman (05 Aug 2020 6.49pm)

I qualified in Marketing in Croydon College...

 

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View Mapletree's Profile Mapletree Flag Croydon 05 Aug 20 6.59pm Send a Private Message to Mapletree Add Mapletree as a friend

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

What is the danger or risk you think there is with schools?

With increased levels of testing (between 59% and 87% of symptomatic people tested at some point during an active SARS-CoV-2 infection, depending on the scenario), and effective contact tracing and isolation, an epidemic rebound might be prevented. Assuming 68% of contacts could be traced, we estimate that 75% of individuals with symptomatic infection would need to be tested and positive cases isolated if schools return full-time in September, or 65% if a part-time rota system were used. If only 40% of contacts could be traced, these figures would increase to 87% and 75%, respectively. However, without these levels of testing and contact tracing, reopening of schools together with gradual relaxing of the lockdown measures are likely to induce a second wave that would peak in December, 2020, if schools open full-time in September, and in February, 2021, if a part-time rota system were adopted.

This is from The Lancet

In summary:

To prevent a second COVID-19 wave, relaxation of physical distancing, including reopening of schools, in the UK must be accompanied by large-scale, population-wide testing of symptomatic individuals and effective tracing of their contacts, followed by isolation of diagnosed individuals.

 

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View Spiderman's Profile Spiderman Flag Horsham 05 Aug 20 7.09pm Send a Private Message to Spiderman Add Spiderman as a friend

Originally posted by Mapletree

I qualified in Marketing in Croydon College...

Well done

 

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View steeleye20's Profile steeleye20 Flag Croydon 05 Aug 20 7.09pm Send a Private Message to steeleye20 Add steeleye20 as a friend

Originally posted by Mapletree

With increased levels of testing (between 59% and 87% of symptomatic people tested at some point during an active SARS-CoV-2 infection, depending on the scenario), and effective contact tracing and isolation, an epidemic rebound might be prevented. Assuming 68% of contacts could be traced, we estimate that 75% of individuals with symptomatic infection would need to be tested and positive cases isolated if schools return full-time in September, or 65% if a part-time rota system were used. If only 40% of contacts could be traced, these figures would increase to 87% and 75%, respectively. However, without these levels of testing and contact tracing, reopening of schools together with gradual relaxing of the lockdown measures are likely to induce a second wave that would peak in December, 2020, if schools open full-time in September, and in February, 2021, if a part-time rota system were adopted.

This is from The Lancet

In summary:

To prevent a second COVID-19 wave, relaxation of physical distancing, including reopening of schools, in the UK must be accompanied by large-scale, population-wide testing of symptomatic individuals and effective tracing of their contacts, followed by isolation of diagnosed individuals.

Is there any reason to think that can possibly happen?

Or anything like it?

 

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View ASCPFC's Profile ASCPFC Flag Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 05 Aug 20 7.34pm Send a Private Message to ASCPFC Add ASCPFC as a friend

Originally posted by BlueJay

It's a two way street and logically lots of deaths that are due to covid-19 will be missed too. If you look to our excess deaths we've got it right or if anything are somewhat under-reporting.

I'm not sure that falsely under reporting is 'getting it right'. It looks like the US is now going down that route too though, with the CDC being cut out of the loop and the numbers going straight to the whitehouse.

Not really, despite Covid in Ireland, overall our deaths are lower than or equivalent to last year. Only recently saw the Government figures. Entirely possible it is the same in the UK.
People are living longer, we've seen this for some time. Not so much that people are healthy, more advances in science and medicine.
Interestingly, the Central Statistics Office needed to be threatened with legal action before compiling and sending out the figures after a Freedom of Information request. That may make everything sound like a conspiracy theory but petty bureaucracy is not unusual when dealing with the government over anything really. Nobody wants to do any actual work and everyone in the Public Service only works to their pay-grade. CYA we call it in official parlance. Cover your...

 


Red and Blue Army!

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 05 Aug 20 7.46pm Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

Originally posted by steeleye20

Is there any reason to think that can possibly happen?

Or anything like it?

Nope. I’m astounded how sensible you are on this virus subject.

What Maple and all the other lefties who are okay with damaging education, employment and futures all do is ignore the chances of dying from Covid. As a child you statistically have more chance of being struck by lightning. That isn’t an exaggeration, it’s a fact. In all the schools around the world that have been open for months, only one teacher has been reported catching the virus off a child, in Australia. The slums of Mumbai couldn’t socially distance or implement any measures to ‘fight off’ lol (deal with) the virus but it has gone down to extremely low levels efficiently by itself. And yet you get more and more leftie MP’s and activists going on about the same things they know are obstacles because the public can’t and won’t cooperate even if the government made it possible. If it’s not Keir Starmer it’s Tony Bliar or Layla Moran and her ‘We should be aiming for zero Covid cases’ delusion.

Everywhere else faces life, gets on with it and shows no problems from their results, yet for some reason the NEU and all the obstructive lefties in all their mischievous parties and agendas will do everything they can to try and influence anyone they can that schools can’t function and consequently many children’s futures and current lives suffer. I’m not sure whether in their elitist arrogance they think everyone is completely stupid or they want to be even more unelectable each week after Whatsapp messages go round at weekends as to how to knock the government, whether warranted or not, and in turn the public they’re supposed to care more about. Have they seen the polls recently? Even with so many p1ssed with the Tories, Labour are miles behind. At least I won’t have to vote Boris if it comes to it to keep a bunch of traitors out who’d throw everyone under the bus for a General Ele ction victory.

 


COYP

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View Rudi Hedman's Profile Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 05 Aug 20 7.49pm Send a Private Message to Rudi Hedman Add Rudi Hedman as a friend

There’ll be more danger at the school gates with mum’s socialising because they’re sick of this crap rather than in the classroom in an environment that’s shown virtually zero risk from evidence around the world, apart from here because as usual a leftie union won’t allow it to happen.

 


COYP

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View ASCPFC's Profile ASCPFC Flag Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 05 Aug 20 8.03pm Send a Private Message to ASCPFC Add ASCPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

There’ll be more danger at the school gates with mum’s socialising because they’re sick of this crap rather than in the classroom in an environment that’s shown virtually zero risk from evidence around the world, apart from here because as usual a leftie union won’t allow it to happen.

Unions often care about their image more than their members. They won't want the roasting in the press. However, if they ballot their members, then there could be issues. I'm not in the conventional teaching profession - I'm an adult educator. I'm not particularly concerned but considering a lot of our students are in high risk categories (many are refugees or older people) there are genuine issues that some people would have a right to consider. Schools themselves, though, as you say, don't seem to be the issue.
I have to think that nobody has really thought about adult education amongst all of this. But if you consider it, it's quite a large part of education these days, usually falling under the further education and training remit.

 


Red and Blue Army!

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