I will leave the comment on anything theoretical to experts and those qualified to make it but I do find the Official figures from the most recent ONS release to be of huge concern.

The latest release from the Office of National Statistics (on 27th October) provided the latest Official figures for Covid related deaths for week 42. The excerpt is as follows.

‘The number of death registrations in England and Wales involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) increased by 232 deaths, from 438 in Week 41 to 670 in Week 42 (a 53.0% increase).’

Without knowing your definition of ‘steep’ I would say a 53% increase in deaths week on week is huge and is cause for real concern.

The next release from the ONS is due on November 3rd and I suspect the figures for more recent weeks (as yet not officially released) will be extremely serious, which is why the Government are taking further action.

Firstly the amount and rate of increases are falling. And you did just quote 53%, 46%, 43% rises. The government have only just admitted that the R numbers in the NW and NE have fallen when they were all falling before Boris’s announcement last Saturday. This is exactly the same as before March 27, only with the situation nothing like what it was in March. A pity it didn’t stop the government continuing its false 1,000 deaths which were 260 at the time, onto becoming 4,000.

Covid deaths are happening, but other deaths seem to be not happening. Everyone gets tested in hospital and goes down as a Covid admission and patient if they test positive. If there’s virtually no flu deaths from December onwards then there’s something amiss.

Hospital recovery rates are now overtaking hospitalisations. I have posted this and some other optimistic good news.

Covid kills mainly over 80’s. Even the BBC online ran a piece highlighting the errors and reactions and questioned why we’re not shielding over 80’s. Covid is of course real but it’s important to not let it dictate everything. After this virus fight back after lockdown 1 it may bump along for a long time or forever. Or it may disappear altogether. It is something to continue to socially distance where possible and keep good hand hygiene but not to dictate life and lives. Problem is this lockdown won’t end on Dec 2nd. There will be more of this until at least start of spring. There might be releases into lower tiers for regions but it looks like we’re unfortunately stuck with this blunt hammer approach.

You hit the nail yourself rudi. Socially distance is where its failing. Even yourself know it's the solution. The only way for this to happen is sadly in a forced way. This lockdown is also a warning shot that without changes it can be forced. Unfortunately even warning shots will cause casualties.

Rudi,

I didn’t quote 56%, 46%, 43% - I have no idea where you have got the 43% from (perhaps week 43?).

56% and 46% rises in deaths are absolutely huge! I did say I didn’t know your definition of ‘steep’ but by any reasonable persons standards those rises, week on week, are flippin steep!

At a time when you were saying hospitals weren’t any busier from Covid-19 cases they were in fact experiencing a huge rise in admissions from Covid-19 related cases.

At a time when you were agreeing with Dolphin that deaths were falling, they were in fact going up...massively!

The Office for National Statistics data is not an estimate or a prediction, it is factual, independent and the most accurate statistics we will get on the subject.
Stop with the erroneous posts and in the interests of truth & transparency try and refrain from stating your incorrect opinions and assumptions as fact.

Saying that Covid deaths are falling when they are actually going up by 46% is just plain wrong, not at all helpful and totally indefensible.

Edited by Phil’s Barber (07 Nov 2020 12.52pm)

I may be shot down in flames but I think Boris was wrong to let pubs sell beer to be consumed outside of their premises.
Looking at scenes from Borough and Broadway Markets in Hackney and London Bridge yesterday it didn't exactly seem that anyone was social distancing which I thought was what we were all supposed to be doing. We seem to have become a nation is pi**heads. I like a pint but can wait until things improve and we can go back into our favourite pubs again.