Yes we do tend to be the one they cite to go down. Jermaine Jenas will also make the same claim on the BBC - he always does.

Meanwhile, every year the same lazy punditry will claim that the newly promoted 3 will be the ones to go down and waffle on about the gulf in class etc. when every year one or two promoted teams not only survive but actually do quite well. However...

I think that for once this is actually proving to be true. There genuinely is a gulf and the huge points tally amassed by Norwich and Watford will mean nothing when they come to play next season, especially if they decide to buy loads of new players who will take half a season to bed in.

while far too early to tell, of the 4 teams cited by the OP, Burnley probably most likely as things stand.

By 'established', I would understand: 'most unlikely to be relegated'. I wouldn't have thought that as many as 12--14 clubs were likely relegation candidates each year.
I'm not saying I think we'll be relegated next year. If anything, my question is: 'why, after eight consecutive seasons in the top flight, are we not regarded as certainties to stay up?'
To avoid relegation, ten wins should suffice, because in securing those, eight draws will be picked up along the way. 38 points is generally enough. The crucial thing is to win the games against the teams thought weaker than us. Say: the three teams to come up from the Championship (Leeds this season were exceptional, Sheff. Utd last), plus three others, say: Brighton, Burnley, Newcastle. Each game against any of these is a 'six pointer'. These are , if you like, 'super games', because, in winning them, we take the three points, and, obviously, prevent the opposition from taking any. So in this sense it is more important to beat Norwich than Man City, because we are not in competition with the latter- unless we think of ourselves as possible Premiership winners or European qualifiers. Of course, beating Man City is more enjoyable than beating Norwich, but my point is, it is not as important. If, from the twelve games against the perceived six weaker teams, we take, say, 30 points, we are well on the road to survival. But as you say, it might not be as bleak as that. We might comfortably finish mid-table.

Edited by Elwissthebest (11 May 2021 1.18pm)

Edited by Elwissthebest (12 May 2021 12.52pm)