Relegation run in
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 YT  Oxford 29 Apr 18 7.25am |
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Originally posted by DualCitizenUSA
For the pedants (who include me, I remember Oldham) we need 2 points to be mathematically certain of staying up. Swansea can get 42 and Southampton can get 41. But their game in hand is against each other, so one of them is going to drop at least 2 points. That would put at best (for them) one of them on maximum 39 points. If Southampton beat Swansea, Swansea’s max is 39 So 40 points is mathematical safety. Edited by DualCitizenUSA (29 Apr 2018 7.01am) Edited by DualCitizenUSA (29 Apr 2018 7.16am) Correct...but more likely 39 will be sufficient, allowing for goal difference? Edited by YT (29 Apr 2018 7.26am)
Palace since 19 August 1972. Palace 1 (Tony Taylor) Liverpool 1 (Emlyn Hughes) |
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| Vim Fuego Haywards Heath 29 Apr 18 7.26am |
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Originally posted by daven
Mathematically we are not safe yet, but statistically we are. Having said that I see no reason why we cant finish with two more wins and not look down but up. How can you be statistically safe but mathematically not safe?
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| Vim Fuego Haywards Heath 29 Apr 18 7.26am |
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Originally posted by DualCitizenUSA
For the pedants (who include me, I remember Oldham) we need 2 points to be mathematically certain of staying up. Swansea can get 42 and Southampton can get 41. But their game in hand is against each other, so one of them is going to drop at least 2 points. That would put at best (for them) one of them on maximum 39 points. If Southampton beat Swansea, Swansea’s max is 39 So 40 points is mathematical safety. Edited by DualCitizenUSA (29 Apr 2018 7.01am) Edited by DualCitizenUSA (29 Apr 2018 7.16am) Thanks for saving me the time to work it out.
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DualCitizenUSA  Portland, OR 29 Apr 18 7.27am |
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Originally posted by daven
Mathematically we are not safe yet, but statistically we are. Having said that I see no reason why we cant finish with two more wins and not look down but up. We’ve got 38 points in 32 games under Roy, and since the October international break (after 7 games/7 losses) it’s 38 points in 29 games. And since that break we’ve only lost twice to teams outside the top six (Newcastle and Everton away). I agree with you. While I’m still haunted by 92-93 so won’t celebrate until we’re mathematically safe, the chances of us going down are minuscule. Our last two games in 92-93 were Man City and Arsenal (both away). Man City were decent that season and Arsenal won the League Cup/FA Cup double. Stoke and West Brom don’t quite pose the same threat. So yes have a great chance of 11th or 12th.
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| Alexi_the_Eagle Newton-le-Willows 29 Apr 18 7.29am |
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This post has been merged from a topic called 'We are Safe !!' by Midlands Eagle Mathematically, we are safe. Swansea, Southampton, Stoke, and (to a lesser extent) Huddersfield, won’t win all their remaining games and overtake us. That, of which i’m confident. Still, I’d love it if West Ham went down instead.
"Look at that. Accident blackspot? These aren't accidents! They're throwing themselves into the road gladly! Throwing themselves into the road to escape all this hideousness!" |
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| southnorwoodhill 29 Apr 18 8.23am |
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Originally posted by Alexi_the_Eagle
Still, I’d love it if West Ham went down instead. This would be the perfect result
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| CambridgeEagle Sydenham 29 Apr 18 8.38am |
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Originally posted by Alexi_the_Eagle
This post has been merged from a topic called 'We are Safe !!' by Midlands Eagle Mathematically, we are safe. Swansea, Southampton, Stoke, and (to a lesser extent) Huddersfield, won’t win all their remaining games and overtake us. That, of which i’m confident. Still, I’d love it if West Ham went down instead. I usually like having London sides in the prem as it's an easy trip, but I'm not going to their terrible ground again and it would be hilarious seeing them in the Championship playing there. Their fixtures aren't easy.
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| Bullhorn76 Darlington 29 Apr 18 8.52am |
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Meanwhile in the uddersfield forum ....http://downatthemac.proboards.com/thread/109351/1pt-needed-same , I don’t think link is working but basically they think a point will do it how does that work then when they’re on 35 now ? Edited by Bullhorn76 (29 Apr 2018 8.54am)
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| bexleydave Barnehurst 29 Apr 18 9.01am |
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Originally posted by Alexi_the_Eagle
This post has been merged from a topic called 'We are Safe !!' by Midlands Eagle Mathematically, we are safe. Swansea, Southampton, Stoke, and (to a lesser extent) Huddersfield, won’t win all their remaining games and overtake us. That, of which i’m confident. Still, I’d love it if West Ham went down instead. No we are not; as explained above, currently mathematical safety is 40 points. However, it would require an extraordinary set of circumstances for us to be relegated now and so is extremely unlikely.
Bexley Dave Can you hear the Brighton sing? I can't hear a ******* thing! "The most arrogant, obnoxious bunch of deluded little sun tanned, loafer wearing mummy's boys I've ever had the misfortune of having to listen to" (Burnley forum) |
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| YT Oxford 29 Apr 18 9.02am |
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Originally posted by Bullhorn76
Meanwhile in the uddersfield forum ....http://downatthemac.proboards.com/thread/109351/1pt-needed-same , I don’t think link is working but basically they think a point will do it how does that work then when they’re on 35 now ? Edited by Bullhorn76 (29 Apr 2018 8.54am) It won’t work. And furthermore they won’t overtake us. No chance on the evidence of MOTD and given their tough fixtures. Stoke and West Brom can’t overtake us, ergo we are safe. Edited by YT (29 Apr 2018 9.03am)
Palace since 19 August 1972. Palace 1 (Tony Taylor) Liverpool 1 (Emlyn Hughes) |
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| steeleye20 Croydon 29 Apr 18 9.19am |
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I haven't seen it mentioned, apart from RH post-match interview, that our gpal average is better than the others, at -13. So being level with us on 38 would not be enough in practice, Hudds etc. would need 39 points. Hudds are -29 Swansea and Stoke not much better goal diff. I expect, behind the scenes, RH and staff will have been scrutinising every nuance of the relegation battle, and feel that the others have an impracticable task. It hasn't been dour because Palace have played good football not just all behind the ball and hoof.
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| steeleye20 Croydon 29 Apr 18 9.21am |
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Originally posted by steeleye20
I haven't seen it mentioned, apart from RH post-match interview, that our goal average is better than the others, at -13. So being level with us on 38 would not be enough in practice, Hudds etc. would need 39 points. Hudds are -29 Swansea and Stoke not much better goal diff. I expect, behind the scenes, RH and staff will have been scrutinising every nuance of the relegation battle, and feel that the others have an impracticable task. It hasn't been dour because Palace have played good football not just all behind the ball and hoof.
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