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View elgrande's Profile elgrande Flag bedford 06 Jan 19 8.19pm Send a Private Message to elgrande Add elgrande as a friend

Originally posted by ASCPFC

In principle then you were right. However, you said Redwood was wrong and others wrong about the UK's position - as the UK is smaller than the rest of the EU. The UK imports more from the EU than it exports and contributes more than it gets back. In specifics you were wrong.
What you are actually seeing is outright EU dislike of the UK. The UK fails to dance to German marches whilst the French enjoys its pocket money from mummy Merkel. Shame that our politicians were far too dumb to negotiate properly. I would have loved to have said -'we are leaving and wondered if we should come to a deal that still allows you to sell cars in our country? If not we were thinking of doing a deal with someone more reasonable.'

Nail on head.

 


always a Norwood boy, where ever I live.

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Pussay Patrol Flag 06 Jan 19 8.50pm

Originally posted by ASCPFC

In principle then you were right. However, you said Redwood was wrong and others wrong about the UK's position - as the UK is smaller than the rest of the EU. The UK imports more from the EU than it exports and contributes more than it gets back. In specifics you were wrong.
What you are actually seeing is outright EU dislike of the UK. The UK fails to dance to German marches whilst the French enjoys its pocket money from mummy Merkel. Shame that our politicians were far too dumb to negotiate properly. I would have loved to have said -'we are leaving and wondered if we should come to a deal that still allows you to sell cars in our country? If not we were thinking of doing a deal with someone more reasonable.'

You sound just like the people in charge, completely oblivious to how things work. They do not have the power to decide whether or not they can sell, all they can do is levy tarrifs but all that does is create a trade war and and makes goods more expensive for UK consumers. And pray tell which other country we would go to to buy German cars?

 


Paua oouaarancì Irà chiyeah Ishé galé ma ba oo ah

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steve1984 06 Jan 19 9.10pm

Originally posted by ASCPFC

In principle then you were right. However, you said Redwood was wrong and others wrong about the UK's position - as the UK is smaller than the rest of the EU. The UK imports more from the EU than it exports and contributes more than it gets back. In specifics you were wrong.
What you are actually seeing is outright EU dislike of the UK. The UK fails to dance to German marches whilst the French enjoys its pocket money from mummy Merkel. Shame that our politicians were far too dumb to negotiate properly. I would have loved to have said -'we are leaving and wondered if we should come to a deal that still allows you to sell cars in our country? If not we were thinking of doing a deal with someone more reasonable.'

Yes of course you're right we import more than export. So we're a cash cow. But the point is that after they've done the risk analysis that we failed to do, they'll see that in the greater scheme of things we aren't such a big cash cow and were continually becoming a smaller one.

Even with no deal the Germans and French will still sell cars here, even if the manufacture of them (as well as Nissan et al) will slowly dribble away to the continent because of the just in time thingy.

OK so the cars will proably cost more, which means we'll buy less of them. But no deal doesn't mean no BMWs sold by the dealers, just less.

We buy about 7% to 8% of total EU exports. I just don't think is enough to persuade the EU to say "OK after you've left you can have a free trade deal so there's no need for any tariffs and you can still buy our cars on the same terms as before." To do so would mean every other EU member state would say "We'll have some of that!"

Not forgetting that for example, the South Korean cars we could buy instead of Mercedes are only available in the UK through an EU trade deal.

OK so they'll see the value of the current 7% to 8% share of their exports we currently buy shrink by maybe 25% to 33% because of higher prices (to maybe 5.5% share) but those lost sales will rapidly begin to be compensated for by sales to the economies of India, China etc that are growing very fast.

All in all the hit they're likely to take is way too small to risk breaking up the club.

So I disagree about the EU hating the UK. I just think it rather unrealistic to expect them to deliberately risk their own existence by providing a better deal.

At least that's my opinion. You disagree?

 

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steve1984 06 Jan 19 9.13pm

Originally posted by Pussay Patrol

You sound just like the people in charge, completely oblivious to how things work. They do not have the power to decide whether or not they can sell, all they can do is levy tarrifs but all that does is create a trade war and and makes goods more expensive for UK consumers. And pray tell which other country we would go to to buy German cars?

There are plenty of alternatives to German cars. The Japanese and Koreans for example build great cars admittedly without the wow factor which impresses the neighbours.

But Japanese and Korean cars will also become more expensive because they're only available in the UK through a trade deal done on our behalf by the EU.

 

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steve1984 06 Jan 19 9.16pm

Originally posted by .TUX.

The EU is broke. Period.

2yrs wasted with a prick at the helm intent on holding on to an agenda continually driven by those who have happily gained from the people that it's happily robbed .........for how many years now?

European Central Banking 'QE' amounts to around 7,600euros per person. If you've yet to receive your cheque then you've been robbed.


Yes thank you, we already know that because you've already said so, quite a few times.

 

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steve1984 06 Jan 19 9.25pm

Put in the simplest terms I can think of, the UK is a business from which the EU (another business) takes about 7% to 8% of its total revenue.

After we leave that revenue will shrink considerably but might still represent as much as 5.5% of the EU's total take.

A decline of 1.5% to 2.5% share points in their revenues is the kind shortfall that they'll find from somewhere else over the next 5-10 years quite easily.

 

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View ASCPFC's Profile ASCPFC Flag Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 06 Jan 19 9.31pm Send a Private Message to ASCPFC Add ASCPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Pussay Patrol

You sound just like the people in charge, completely oblivious to how things work. They do not have the power to decide whether or not they can sell, all they can do is levy tarrifs but all that does is create a trade war and and makes goods more expensive for UK consumers. And pray tell which other country we would go to to buy German cars?


Surely best to go into negotiations hard and then work down from there? Point out the strength of Britain's position rather than highlight weaknesses?
I'm not enamoured in being called just like the people in charge. I do like a drink so perhaps I'm like Junkers. I'm certainly not a May type.

 


Red and Blue Army!

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View ASCPFC's Profile ASCPFC Flag Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 06 Jan 19 9.33pm Send a Private Message to ASCPFC Add ASCPFC as a friend

Originally posted by steve1984

Put in the simplest terms I can think of, the UK is a business from which the EU (another business) takes about 7% to 8% of its total revenue.

After we leave that revenue will shrink considerably but might still represent as much as 5.5% of the EU's total take.

A decline of 1.5% to 2.5% share points in their revenues is the kind shortfall that they'll find from somewhere else over the next 5-10 years quite easily.

Losing 1 or 2 percent of GDP is at the least a recession in an economy.

 


Red and Blue Army!

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View ASCPFC's Profile ASCPFC Flag Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 06 Jan 19 9.35pm Send a Private Message to ASCPFC Add ASCPFC as a friend

Originally posted by steve1984

Yes of course you're right we import more than export. So we're a cash cow. But the point is that after they've done the risk analysis that we failed to do, they'll see that in the greater scheme of things we aren't such a big cash cow and were continually becoming a smaller one.

Even with no deal the Germans and French will still sell cars here, even if the manufacture of them (as well as Nissan et al) will slowly dribble away to the continent because of the just in time thingy.

OK so the cars will proably cost more, which means we'll buy less of them. But no deal doesn't mean no BMWs sold by the dealers, just less.

We buy about 7% to 8% of total EU exports. I just don't think is enough to persuade the EU to say "OK after you've left you can have a free trade deal so there's no need for any tariffs and you can still buy our cars on the same terms as before." To do so would mean every other EU member state would say "We'll have some of that!"

Not forgetting that for example, the South Korean cars we could buy instead of Mercedes are only available in the UK through an EU trade deal.

OK so they'll see the value of the current 7% to 8% share of their exports we currently buy shrink by maybe 25% to 33% because of higher prices (to maybe 5.5% share) but those lost sales will rapidly begin to be compensated for by sales to the economies of India, China etc that are growing very fast.

All in all the hit they're likely to take is way too small to risk breaking up the club.

So I disagree about the EU hating the UK. I just think it rather unrealistic to expect them to deliberately risk their own existence by providing a better deal.

At least that's my opinion. You disagree?

It seems a reasonable enough opinion on some of the points of Brexit economically and can really be interpreted as positive or negative by people on either side of the Brexit debate.

 


Red and Blue Army!

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steve1984 06 Jan 19 9.35pm

Originally posted by ASCPFC

Losing 1 or 2 percent of GDP is at the least a recession in an economy.

Except it isn't GDP.

 

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View Oliver's Profile Oliver Flag Bodega Bay 06 Jan 19 9.50pm Send a Private Message to Oliver Add Oliver as a friend

Originally posted by Midlands Eagle

Not so. It's done on the basis of who needs who the most and EU needed us, our contribution and our market for imports more than we needed them

This is utter bollocks

 


I have prepared one of my own time capsules. I have placed some rather large samples of dynamite, gunpowder and nitroglycerin. My time capsule is set to go off in the year 3000. It will show them what we are really like.

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steve1984 06 Jan 19 10.20pm

Originally posted by Oliver

This is utter bollocks

They need us to buy their BMWs.

 

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