I'd agree with you....it could be a false flag.

Israel and the house of Saud...hell the whole Sunni led region have cause to weaken Iran.......However, that's what this trade embargo is doing.

That said....For me, I'd say I'm 70/30 with it's Iran.

I find it hard to believe that the US are going to nuke Tehran...or invade them with thousands of troops.....I think the Tehran leadership know that.

So when I think about it...Anything short of that military response pretty much plays into the hands of the hardliners in Tehran .

As the economic situation worsens they need the focus upon their enemies instead of their own incompetence.

Small skirmishes which cost their enemies while coming with plausible deniability from them has little cost for them.....and if the US bomb them....then they gain the support back home and the oil cost shoots through the roof...more terror attacks...more cost to their enemies.

Short of being nuked....which is highly unlikely I'm not seeing the downside for them.

The only people who are likely to nuke Iran are the Israelis.....and it's very scary....because they might just end up doing it....But it's more likely that they would attempt to destroy their nuclear capacity through other means first.

Edited by Stirlingsays (19 Jun 2019 4.32pm)

I'm 60/40 Iran so we're close.

My points are:

*insecurity in the gulf might actually generate a coalition to back the yanks; China may loathe Trump, but China really can't let a material disruption to Gulf oil happen. Not now especially.

*Let's Just suppose Iran is exporting at 1.2mbd and the yanks take down 15 tankers loaded with Iranian crude.

Does anybody bother to keep buying Iranian at that point? Will Russia and China REALLY come to Iran's aid? I say no way.

The winners from greater conflict can well be the Americans, even if their reputation for coalition building is gone. Trump doesn't seem to value such things anyway.

And don't rule out, if Iran's oil GENUINELY gets choked toward zero, that Iran simply caves in.

Iran knows this, which is why Iran is vehemently denying responsibility.

Its strategy now needs to be to wait Trump out.

Again, though, I do want to reiterate that my gut says Iran's responsible.

Edited by Ginger Pubic Wig (19 Jun 2019 5.06pm)

What we invite in without filter...
Still, quite accurate to the religion, if you regard it as the word of God.

[Tweet Link]

Edited by Stirlingsays (29 Nov 2019 3.51pm)

Those Iranian Presidential Candidates in full*

Candidate 1. Hardliner who hates Israel
Candidate 2. Hardliner who hates Israel and the USA
Candidate 3. Hardliner who hates Israel, USA and the UK
Candidate 4. Moderate who believes in constructive dialogue with Iran's neighbours. **

*Result to be declared by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei before voting starts but it's going to be Ebrahim Raisi.

**Will start his campaign once they release him from jail.

Meet the new boss same as the old boss.