Bit like Venezuela and Cuba.
just perfect so you should be well pleased.

Obviously I was talking about the 'opportunities' from a government's perspective. (any national government, regardless of political orientation)

I think for the vast majority of working people, the world just got a whole lot 5hittier, and likely to get worse

Edited by Forest Hillbilly (03 May 2020 4.55pm)

"The facts have changed", Rishi Sunak

Problem is how deep this dent will be?

Seeing all the noise being made, I do wonder if tensions with China will be ramped up to such a level that it leads to open armed conflict?

Perhaps a little hyperish but I can see a rather hawkish case to be made for looking to break China up or at least seeking to undermine its current regime. The Chinese play the long game and have accrued a lot of Western debt, along with playing silly games with currency and so on.

This might be an excuse to try and bring them down a peg or two. Yes, there are a lot of Chinese but the US is still the biggest dog militarily and it might be seen as a case of now or never.

Of course, all of this needs to be taken with a potentially huge pinch of salt and perhaps a result of my mind playing hysterical 'what if' game in terms of Real Politik but it is clear that globalisation, as it stands at the moment, China has enjoyed a lot of benefits. Covid potentially changes everything.

And a weakened West, with Chinese finance looking to take advantage, might allow a more gung-ho mentality to take root against it. Certainly, no polling benefits as things stand to by taking a Sinophile approach. In fact quite the opposite.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

Massively so. And with Australia, and to a lesser extent New Zealand, the Anglo nations most at risk of direct impact should it all get a bit lively. Any conflict, at least militarily, is Southern Hemisphere focused.

Oddly enough I suspect the actual 'cold' part of the conflict might be played out in Africa. China has spent the last couple of decades buying up huge swathes of the best agricultural and mineral resources across the continent, showing no hesitancy in bribing any and everybody. Essentially a form of economic imperialism without any real sense of even a pretence at 'duty of care'.

And the Chinese are as racist as f***. And I don't mean in the casually ludicrous manner that the term gets bandied about in the West. I mean proper 'classical' racism that does not even acknowledge Africans as human.

Even seen the Guardian touch on the current spate of racist attacks and behaviour going on in China against the tiny number of Africans who live there and in any other news cycle, it would be worthy of all sorts of (quite justified) righteous anger. Because that is what actual racism looks and plays out like. Indefensible behaviour.

So expect a lot of ire to be aimed at China for how it behaves in Africa. Been deserved for a long while.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

Firstly, enjoyed reading the predictions. Lot of food for thought in those.

But as to the EU, I expect to see a doubling down. Essentially the EU is inextricably linked to the Euro especially now with our departure given the size of our economy and us not involved.

With the catch 22 due to loom large. The Northern European nations need more than ever to export goods in huge numbers. And they need to do that in a currency that makes that relatively cheap when compared to what the costs would be if they had retained their previous one.

And the way you keep that currency undervalued? Making sure the southern euro nations remain poor.

They are not going to relinquish that without a huge fight. If Italy, for example, decides to leave the EU then they will invariably have to leave the Euro. And if they do that then the whole rotten edifice will implode.

I expect the EU to double down in terms of pushing for even more integration. Resistance will come from Holland and Germany, both of whom benefit immensely from the current misbalance of power.

The EU is simply incapable of reform. Has no interest in it nor the institutional ability to be flexible enough.

Edited by Matov (07 May 2020 8.41am)

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

I can see a lot of the above happening. Will be fascinating to see how what happens at the micro level with the change in behaviours affects the wider macro economy. Can see a huge boost for local economies for a lot of the reasons that you have stated above.