An article here from The Independent entitled "How the Bookies Got It So Wrong" around the Referendum result, explained by a chap from Ladbrokes.

[Link]

Couple of interesting points I saw in it....one that the size of bets going on Remain was reflected by the more affluent expecting a Remain vote, whereas the number of bets on Leave was greater.

And the dangers of "Groupthink" shown by the woman who placed the first bet in her life of £100,000 on Remain in the anticipation of a quick and easy £40,000 profit. Where was it placed? In London. Where the probability of a Leave vote was almost totally discounted by the local opinion.

Personally, I successfully had bets of 7-1 on Leave, and of 6-1 on Trump in 2016. I'd take the view that Biden is a shoe in with a huge pinch of salt.

Living down here does have some advantages. At least you can see them cry.

Some interesting insight as to why you can’t necessarily rely on data,

[Link]

I'll leave the merits of believing Biden to be a "shoe in" to elsewhere. My interest was about how the bookies are valuing this, given they approach things solely from a financial and not an emotional perspective. Gamblers will make poor judgements all the time but bookies cannot.

The article you referenced supports my original point. That bookies base their odds on the amount of money placed on each outcome and not on their view of the probability of a particular result.

So if, as has been reported, much more has been placed on Trump than on Biden, why are his odds still 15-8?

Conspiracy theorists could have a hayday.

For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

Normally I would agree with you because Biden is just an appaling candidate. Bad beyond belief with nobody believing that even if he wins that he will actually be runnning the show. Surprised he is still in the race.

But something is really off. Covid, these postal votes and just a sense that the Democrats, backed by all the usual suspects, have this election sewn up are notions I cannot shake.

Usually more than willing to state an opinion on our outcome but what is going at the moment alarms me on a vareity of levels including the oddest one of late that maybe Trump actually wants to lose?

But my political antenna just seems to be all over the place on the outcome of this all. Trump should win based on all kinds of factors but 2020 is utterly f***ed.

Scary times. Not ashamed to admit I have never been so disconcerted by what I see going on from all sides.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

Here's a story that has no facts in it at all, just opinions, yet this is being promoted on all platforms, quelle surprise. Pass your own judgement.

[Link]

Red and Blue Army!

Thank goodness they are. More of this type of intervention is needed not less!

That story in the New York Post is a scurrilous piece of misinformation if there ever was one. It ought never get past an editor. The level of desperate political pressure from the Trump campaign can only be imagined.

There is also news today that the Trump-inspired, Barr initiated D o J "investigation" into the alleged involvement of Obama, Clinton and Biden in the FBIs work on Russian interference in 2016 has concluded that there is nothing to be seen (just as the GOP led Senate one did). However that news is being suppressed by the WH so as to give the impression the investigation is alive and about to produce results. The lead attorney has just resigned from the D o J!

For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.