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 DanH  SW2 26 Feb 21 10.51am |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
12 years or a bit more isn’t it? You even got that wrong. You keep talking like this new debt is the only debt. The only debt for about 50-80 years. Do you realise it isn’t and there will be more debt on top of it at interest rates you cannot predict? And this long term debt you’re talking about. What is the interest rate, because the longer the debt, the higher the interest rate. Of course. Your massive mistake is thinking that the interest rate on bonds is variable - it's not, it's fixed. Debt now is very cheap. Interest rates will go up in the future and when they do further debt then will need to try and be contained. There is not a better method of fund raising right now then issuing further debt.
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| DanH SW2 26 Feb 21 10.56am |
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Originally posted by Stirlingsays
I wager that if you'd been born in another era your views would also have been an identikit to that day's cultural zeitgeist as well. Anyway, as long as we are both here on the site for the remainer of the decade we get to find out who was right. Personally I don't think you'll stick around for my scorn. Edited by Stirlingsays (26 Feb 2021 10.43am) The level of confidence you have in your own opinions, often flying in the face of irrefutable evidence to the contrary, is staggering. Arrogance of levels I haven't seen in many. When you get to the point where textbooks and academia are cast aside as incorrect and you hold value in your own misplaced opinions then you are in a truly worrying place. It's scary that the internet has sped up this race to the bottom where people find sources they want to believe from the often ill informed and hold that as true and correct rather than what the evidence suggests.
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| Stirlingsays 26 Feb 21 10.57am |
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Originally posted by DanH
Of course. Your massive mistake is thinking that the interest rate on bonds is variable - it's not, it's fixed. Debt now is very cheap. Interest rates will go up in the future and when they do further debt then will need to try and be contained. There is not a better method of fund raising right now then issuing further debt.
'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen) |
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| Stirlingsays 26 Feb 21 11.08am |
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Originally posted by DanH
The level of confidence you have in your own opinions, often flying in the face of irrefutable evidence to the contrary, is staggering. Arrogance of levels I haven't seen in many. When you get to the point where textbooks and academia are cast aside as incorrect and you hold value in your own misplaced opinions then you are in a truly worrying place. It's scary that the internet has sped up this race to the bottom where people find sources they want to believe from the often ill informed and hold that as true and correct rather than what the evidence suggests. What is staggering is that you appear not to realise that predictive textbooks have contained faulty information in them since history began (excepting certain subjects like maths, and the obvious non predictive subjects)....especially those on economics, which is part soothsaying. It'll be no different now Also the level of accuracy of academia can also be shown in the variance of its output over eras. It says more about the people within the institutions than anything about accuracy. I also remember reading about how most studies contain errors that compound upon themselves into their conclusions. Also, nothing I stated is 'flying in the face of irrefutable evidence'. Like a lot of your views Dan, there is a kind of religious zealotry to them.....you appear to just output what you were taught without much review of it. But yes....I am arrogant and yes I recognise that's irritating and off putting. However, what is far more important is whether I'm right or not. We will see my man.
'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen) |
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| Rudi Hedman Caterham 26 Feb 21 11.17am |
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Originally posted by DanH
Of course. Your massive mistake is thinking that the interest rate on bonds is variable - it's not, it's fixed. Debt now is very cheap. Interest rates will go up in the future and when they do further debt then will need to try and be contained. There is not a better method of fund raising right now then issuing further debt. I know bonds are fixed at the point of issue. That’s why they’re called ‘bonds’. Duh! Firstly though, the longer the bond, the higher the interest rate. In the meantime there’s still lots of borrowing, and you make containing that sound like a multiple choice answer, which if you get one term in government you’re lucky. Two if you’re a liar or not what you say you are or do exactly what you’d agree to. Please everyone now to be repaired by those in the future.
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| SW19 CPFC Addiscombe West 26 Feb 21 12.59pm |
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Originally posted by steeleye20
MMR the latest macroeconomic fantasy. Blow the odd 500 millions on Rish's burger and chips and seemingly never pay for it. Have a new railway it is only 4 billions a mile could be useful one day and we won't be paying for it. 40% of the natural world lost since 1992. 20% of the world's deaths in 2018 related to fossil fuels. This pandemic could prove to be like a cold before the flu. MMT Also yes, in a way it is fantasy, but so is money, really, when you think about it. Any financial system is a fantasy. That said I totally agree with your sentiments - rather than finding ways to taper down our consumption we’re looking for ways to support it that are less damaging to the environment. Positive, but really not the right solution, and will also take far too long - time we don’t really have. I’m just explaining why focusing on debt piles is, under the current system anyway, a bit of a red herring
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| SW19 CPFC Addiscombe West 26 Feb 21 1.10pm |
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Originally posted by Stirlingsays
Inflation is just another form of devaluation. Are you not being unrealistic in thinking this can be kept in check?....it plainly can't as it operates in cycles and economies like these have no wiggle room once the global system falters as it did only a while back. I am a bit of a broken record on this and other topics such as AI but I can’t help myself The financial system and economies do indeed operate in cycles but those cycles are often not solely related or even heavily influenced by government debt Usually stupidity and lax standards lead to the boom and bust cycles. The old human trait of recency bias and the hot hand fallacy will mean until something else runs our systems for us the same old cycle will continue. No one ever wants to stop the good times even if it’s the right thing to do - so everyone in the know simply waits until the whole thing fails, then the process starts all over again. The last crash was almost entirely down to lack of regulation, stupidity and more. If government debt was a real issue we’d all have gone bankrupt a long time ago. MMT just keeps more coming into the system indefinitely. Yes the debt pile grows but there’s no limit on injection to support it so it doesn’t really matter. Now to answer your point about some sort of reckoning - as long as the current system remains in place, unlikely. But it won’t be in place for ever - and at that point yeah, sure, serious issues. But it would take a lot more than debt to create that sort of event.
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| Stirlingsays 26 Feb 21 1.29pm |
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Originally posted by SW19 CPFC
I am a bit of a broken record on this and other topics such as AI but I can’t help myself The financial system and economies do indeed operate in cycles but those cycles are often not solely related or even heavily influenced by government debt Usually stupidity and lax standards lead to the boom and bust cycles. The old human trait of recency bias and the hot hand fallacy will mean until something else runs our systems for us the same old cycle will continue. No one ever wants to stop the good times even if it’s the right thing to do - so everyone in the know simply waits until the whole thing fails, then the process starts all over again. The last crash was almost entirely down to lack of regulation, stupidity and more. If government debt was a real issue we’d all have gone bankrupt a long time ago. MMT just keeps more coming into the system indefinitely. Yes the debt pile grows but there’s no limit on injection to support it so it doesn’t really matter. Now to answer your point about some sort of reckoning - as long as the current system remains in place, unlikely. But it won’t be in place for ever - and at that point yeah, sure, serious issues. But it would take a lot more than debt to create that sort of event. From what I can tell the only way you can go on with increasing debt levels and not be affected negatively is if your GDP increases in lock step. Otherwise negative steps need to be taken....when that's mostly on the national level as in the past it's painful but can be mitigated. However we saw in 2008 how a global crises damaged economies and how it was denied by borrowing against the future. I don't agree with you on the debt because I think the sheer size of it becomes unsustainable and at the point creditors don't believe an economy is doing well enough then the dynamics change. I'd also say that 2008 was also in part down to 'over' regulation rather than under.....Clinton's regulation of forcing banks to hand out loans based on ethnicity regardless of solvency has been largely hidden from the story. So while I agree with you that under regulation encouraged too much risk taking encouraged by short term rather than hard nosed banking the reality is that ideological politics also contributed. So while you need regulation, an obvious is that it's worst than useless unless it's policy based upon common sense. Edited by Stirlingsays (26 Feb 2021 1.31pm)
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| Rudi Hedman Caterham 26 Feb 21 1.59pm |
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Originally posted by Stirlingsays
From what I can tell the only way you can go on with increasing debt levels and not be affected negatively is if your GDP increases in lock step. Otherwise negative steps need to be taken....when that's mostly on the national level as in the past it's painful but can be mitigated. However we saw in 2008 how a global crises damaged economies and how it was denied by borrowing against the future. I don't agree with you on the debt because I think the sheer size of it becomes unsustainable and at the point creditors don't believe an economy is doing well enough then the dynamics change. I'd also say that 2008 was also in part down to 'over' regulation rather than under.....Clinton's regulation of forcing banks to hand out loans based on ethnicity regardless of solvency has been largely hidden from the story. So while I agree with you that under regulation encouraged too much risk taking encouraged by short term rather than hard nosed banking the reality is that ideological politics also contributed. So while you need regulation, an obvious is that it's worst than useless unless it's policy based upon common sense. Edited by Stirlingsays (26 Feb 2021 1.31pm) Yep. The one thing in our favour is pretty much the world are in a similar position, only ours is one of the worst, and we seem okay with making it even worse now, and no doubt even more worse than other countries moving forward unless someone in power starts to take responsibility. Yes sure we’ll be alright for a while, but we’re storing up problems for the future, just like we’re good at, and it seems are okay to keep doing because we’re a nation of spenders, consumers, and self entitlement. MMT was fine for the last decade because inflation remained low so so did interest rates. If that isn’t the case then problems build, so to say it doesn’t really matter isn’t true, unless of course every country is in the same position I guess and inflation is left alone and so are interest rates. I don’t think I’ll ever be persuaded by the ‘it doesn’t really matter’ and ‘it’ll be okay’. Someone always pays for it. It’s whether they’re aware of it or not. Not only that, I don’t think it’s a very responsible or good grounding for younger generations to be in this mindset. The country and its people having no responsibility or issue with the handling of the country’s finances. Could be an interesting watch though. Edited by Rudi Hedman (26 Feb 2021 2.04pm)
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| Lombardinho London 26 Feb 21 2.10pm |
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Originally posted by SW19 CPFC
MMT Also yes, in a way it is fantasy, but so is money, really, when you think about it. Any financial system is a fantasy. That said I totally agree with your sentiments - rather than finding ways to taper down our consumption we’re looking for ways to support it that are less damaging to the environment. Positive, but really not the right solution, and will also take far too long - time we don’t really have. I’m just explaining why focusing on debt piles is, under the current system anyway, a bit of a red herring Do I have to focus on your piles?
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| Stirlingsays 26 Feb 21 2.21pm |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
Yep. The one thing in our favour is pretty much the world are in a similar position, only ours is one of the worst, and we seem okay with making it even worse now, and no doubt even more worse than other countries moving forward unless someone in power starts to take responsibility. Yes sure we’ll be alright for a while, but we’re storing up problems for the future, just like we’re good at, and it seems are okay to keep doing because we’re a nation of spenders, consumers, and self entitlement. MMT was fine for the last decade because inflation remained low so so did interest rates. If that isn’t the case then problems build, so to say it doesn’t really matter isn’t true, unless of course every country is in the same position I guess and inflation is left alone and so are interest rates. I don’t think I’ll ever be persuaded by the ‘it doesn’t really matter’ and ‘it’ll be okay’. Someone always pays for it. It’s whether they’re aware of it or not. Not only that, I don’t think it’s a very responsible or good grounding for younger generations to be in this mindset. The country and its people having no responsibility or issue with the handling of the country’s finances. Could be an interesting watch though. Edited by Rudi Hedman (26 Feb 2021 2.04pm) Aside from the debt it's compounded by the assumption that everything stays the same....nay not assumption, requirement. One of the problems is that we are talking about global finance....unless you're Japan or China the bounds of loyalty towards a nation don't interfere with the bottom line....Trump tried to reintroduce that with inducements but the elites hated him for it. Essentially they want the ability to move their money where it's most profitable to be. Now while America remains the centrepoint the truth is that via a collection of bad ideology and competition that centre has been moving for decades now. Once that reaches a critical mass the western economies are only going to travel one way, which is in relative terms less wealthy than they are now.....Bless, all the egalitarians and leftists with two cars and nice houses are going to face the reality of their beliefs. Once the elites learned that they could separate their wealth from their location....essentially they became disconnected from the wealth of their nation and became the disloyal fecks they are today. The officer no longer blows the whistle and goes over the top with the lads.....they blow the whistle and sit back in the trenches eating your tin of bully beef while taking pot shots at you. Edited by Stirlingsays (26 Feb 2021 2.23pm)
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| SW19 CPFC Addiscombe West 26 Feb 21 2.30pm |
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Originally posted by Lombardinho
Do I have to focus on your piles? Of facts? Sure. Go ahead
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