Local Elections May 2023.

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footythoughts Beckenham 09 May 23 8.43pm
Originally posted by Matov Thought this an interesting take... [Link] Wondering if this might be the preferred outcomes for the people pulling Starmers strings? Will give Starmer the excuse of having to acquiesce to the almost invariable Lib-Dem demand for us rejoining the EU, especially if they make a song and dance about it in the run-up to the actual election, especially given the tactical voting opportunities it might throw up (and that would make for some interesting data extrapolation in terms of what seats it might swing). What I still cannot get out of my head is how people claim that this is Labours most successful electoral showing since 1997. Especially since even with all the hype, Starmer still only got 35% of the vote compared to the 40 that Corbyn pulled in in the 2017 GE. But not my circus, not my monkeys. It's pointless to rule in or out any political coalition, because events dictate. Just look at the Lib-Con government, who couldn't seen that one coming? Realistically he shouldn't the LidDems, and intuitively it seems early and pointless to try to gravitate back towards the EU, when leaving doesn't particularly seem to have been anything like people would've hoped for anyway. By which I mean it makes more sense to drift along with the status quo and act if or when a public opinion on it becomes especially clear.
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footythoughts

Beckenham 09 May 23 8.43pm

Originally posted by Matov

Thought this an interesting take...

[Link]

Wondering if this might be the preferred outcomes for the people pulling Starmers strings? Will give Starmer the excuse of having to acquiesce to the almost invariable Lib-Dem demand for us rejoining the EU, especially if they make a song and dance about it in the run-up to the actual election, especially given the tactical voting opportunities it might throw up (and that would make for some interesting data extrapolation in terms of what seats it might swing).

What I still cannot get out of my head is how people claim that this is Labours most successful electoral showing since 1997. Especially since even with all the hype, Starmer still only got 35% of the vote compared to the 40 that Corbyn pulled in in the 2017 GE.

But not my circus, not my monkeys.

It's pointless to rule in or out any political coalition, because events dictate. Just look at the Lib-Con government, who couldn't seen that one coming?

Realistically he shouldn't the LidDems, and intuitively it seems early and pointless to try to gravitate back towards the EU, when leaving doesn't particularly seem to have been anything like people would've hoped for anyway. By which I mean it makes more sense to drift along with the status quo and act if or when a public opinion on it becomes especially clear.

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Forest Hillbilly in a hidey-hole 09 May 23 9.10pm
local elections and by-elections have historically seen a high proportion of protest voting against Governments, particularly mid-term. General Elections generally see much more alignment with historical voting patterns, with the floating voters electing which party triumphs. The Tories have been c0cking it right up for years, but the electorate don't seem overly swayed to vote Labour. I don't know why. The Tories just seemed to have a larger base of loyal voters. Until now. "The facts have changed", Rishi Sunak
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Forest Hillbilly

in a hidey-hole 09 May 23 9.10pm

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local elections and by-elections have historically seen a high proportion of protest voting against Governments, particularly mid-term.
General Elections generally see much more alignment with historical voting patterns, with the floating voters electing which party triumphs.
The Tories have been c0cking it right up for years, but the electorate don't seem overly swayed to vote Labour. I don't know why. The Tories just seemed to have a larger base of loyal voters. Until now.

"The facts have changed", Rishi Sunak

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Matov 09 May 23 9.17pm
Originally posted by footythoughts It's pointless to rule in or out any political coalition, because events dictate. Just look at the Lib-Con government, who couldn't seen that one coming? Realistically he shouldn't the LidDems, and intuitively it seems early and pointless to try to gravitate back towards the EU, when leaving doesn't particularly seem to have been anything like people would've hoped for anyway. By which I mean it makes more sense to drift along with the status quo and act if or when a public opinion on it becomes especially clear. Every mainstream institution in the UK campaigned for us to remain in the EU. Every mainstream institution did its very best to stop us leaving. Every mainstream institution did is doing its very best to create the conditions for us to return. The Tories have a massive majority. They can literally vote anything through they want. We still have an entire slew of EU legislation on our books. We are still in the ECHR (which is NOT part of the EU but to be in the EU, all members need to be signed up), which stops up controlling our own borders. The Tories had everything in place to give the UK every kind of competitive edge it possibly could. Instead, it keeps us cheek-to-cheek with the EU. Ever since the morning of June 24th 2016, every major institution has been trying to ensure that we end up back in the EU. And willing to take the long-term view to make it happen. O You want a time scale? Goes like this. 2024 - General Election. Starmer as PM. 2026 - A second EU referendum. Based on us rejoining or a new 'deal' that takes us back into the single market. And then some kind of legal BS that prevents another referendum on the subject for 20 years at least. "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.
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Matov

09 May 23 9.17pm

Originally posted by footythoughts

It's pointless to rule in or out any political coalition, because events dictate. Just look at the Lib-Con government, who couldn't seen that one coming?

Every mainstream institution in the UK campaigned for us to remain in the EU. Every mainstream institution did its very best to stop us leaving. Every mainstream institution did is doing its very best to create the conditions for us to return.

The Tories have a massive majority. They can literally vote anything through they want. We still have an entire slew of EU legislation on our books. We are still in the ECHR (which is NOT part of the EU but to be in the EU, all members need to be signed up), which stops up controlling our own borders.

The Tories had everything in place to give the UK every kind of competitive edge it possibly could. Instead, it keeps us cheek-to-cheek with the EU.

Ever since the morning of June 24th 2016, every major institution has been trying to ensure that we end up back in the EU. And willing to take the long-term view to make it happen. O

You want a time scale? Goes like this.

2024 - General Election. Starmer as PM.
2026 - A second EU referendum. Based on us rejoining or a new 'deal' that takes us back into the single market. And then some kind of legal BS that prevents another referendum on the subject for 20 years at least.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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Badger11 Beckenham 10 May 23 8.07am
Originally posted by footythoughts It's pointless to rule in or out any political coalition, because events dictate. Just look at the Lib-Con government, who couldn't seen that one coming? Realistically he shouldn't the LidDems, and intuitively it seems early and pointless to try to gravitate back towards the EU, when leaving doesn't particularly seem to have been anything like people would've hoped for anyway. By which I mean it makes more sense to drift along with the status quo and act if or when a public opinion on it becomes especially clear. Coalitions are fine as long as the parties tell the voters this before any election and indicate their red lines. In 2010 the Lib Dems betrayed their voters by abandoning the tuition fees pledge a key reason for voting Lib Dem. Labour is entitled to form a coalition with the SNP and the Lib Dems and the Greens but do the decent thing first and explain to the voters what this would actually mean before the vote.* I doubt this will happen and more likely there will be some back door deal after the voting and then the electorate will face god knows what. *In many European countries it is standard practice for parties to lay out their policies and who they would be prepared to go into coalition with and at what price before the voting takes place. Edited by Badger11 (10 May 2023 8.09am) One more point
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Badger11

Beckenham 10 May 23 8.07am

Originally posted by footythoughts

It's pointless to rule in or out any political coalition, because events dictate. Just look at the Lib-Con government, who couldn't seen that one coming?

Coalitions are fine as long as the parties tell the voters this before any election and indicate their red lines.

In 2010 the Lib Dems betrayed their voters by abandoning the tuition fees pledge a key reason for voting Lib Dem.

Labour is entitled to form a coalition with the SNP and the Lib Dems and the Greens but do the decent thing first and explain to the voters what this would actually mean before the vote.*

I doubt this will happen and more likely there will be some back door deal after the voting and then the electorate will face god knows what.

*In many European countries it is standard practice for parties to lay out their policies and who they would be prepared to go into coalition with and at what price before the voting takes place.

Edited by Badger11 (10 May 2023 8.09am)

One more point

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Matov 10 May 23 8.22pm
Originally posted by Badger11 *In many European countries it is standard practice for parties to lay out their policies and who they would be prepared to go into coalition with and at what price before the voting takes place. Edited by Badger11 (10 May 2023 8.09am) To be fair to our politicians (not something I enjoy doing), coalitions are such a rarity in our system that we don't really have a political culture that means they can be anticipated. And 2024 is shaping up to have potentially so many variables that it is probably as much a guessing exercise than any kind of viable strategy that could be laid out to voters. I suspect they might even struggle to war-game it. Where the interesting part comes is if a Lib-Lab pact emerges prior to the election whereby they effectively try to engineer a tactical voting strategy just to deny the Tories a majority. Now how that might work (and on the ground the Lib-Dems are DETESTED by almost all other activists) is another issue but the results of the local elections did offer some evidence that perhaps it might be happening already, as much by accident as design. Throw in the relative implosion of the SNP (which has not really been stress tested yet in any kind of meaningful electoral manner) and there are all kinds of shenanigans to be had. If I was Starmer I would be looking for a straightforward FPTP win. He knows he can rely on virtually every Labour seat as things stand (with perhaps the exception of Islington North) so he can focus on the seats he needs up north. A lot of twists and turns ahead, and still a huge ask given that on the latest showing they are still struggling to achieve a working majority with a Tory election machine no doubt ready to hammer Starmer on all kinds but even hinting at a stitch up with Lib-Dems offers only snakes. In fact, not a single ladder really. Edited by Matov (10 May 2023 8.23pm) "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.
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Matov

10 May 23 8.22pm

Originally posted by Badger11

*In many European countries it is standard practice for parties to lay out their policies and who they would be prepared to go into coalition with and at what price before the voting takes place.

Edited by Badger11 (10 May 2023 8.09am)

To be fair to our politicians (not something I enjoy doing), coalitions are such a rarity in our system that we don't really have a political culture that means they can be anticipated.

And 2024 is shaping up to have potentially so many variables that it is probably as much a guessing exercise than any kind of viable strategy that could be laid out to voters. I suspect they might even struggle to war-game it.

Where the interesting part comes is if a Lib-Lab pact emerges prior to the election whereby they effectively try to engineer a tactical voting strategy just to deny the Tories a majority.

Now how that might work (and on the ground the Lib-Dems are DETESTED by almost all other activists) is another issue but the results of the local elections did offer some evidence that perhaps it might be happening already, as much by accident as design.

Throw in the relative implosion of the SNP (which has not really been stress tested yet in any kind of meaningful electoral manner) and there are all kinds of shenanigans to be had.

If I was Starmer I would be looking for a straightforward FPTP win. He knows he can rely on virtually every Labour seat as things stand (with perhaps the exception of Islington North) so he can focus on the seats he needs up north.

A lot of twists and turns ahead, and still a huge ask given that on the latest showing they are still struggling to achieve a working majority with a Tory election machine no doubt ready to hammer Starmer on all kinds but even hinting at a stitch up with Lib-Dems offers only snakes. In fact, not a single ladder really.

Edited by Matov (10 May 2023 8.23pm)

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

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HKOwen Hong Kong 11 May 23 12.01am
Starmer has an issue with the " red wall " unless he can change their opinions on: Saville prosecution Grooming gangs What is a woman There is enough anti Starmer on these issues to have a difference on the overall vote switch from Conservative back to Labour. If Reform get busy on the ground for example they can have a an impact on where votes are cast. There is a long way to go before the next GE, Starmer's PM in waiting act may be a bit premature. I am now of the opinion that whoever gets into power the country is in a mess and no sign of improvement Responsibility Deficit Disorder is a medical condition. Symptoms include inability to be corrected when wrong, false sense of superiority, desire to share personal info no else cares about, general hubris. It's a medical issue rather than pure arrogance.
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HKOwen

Hong Kong 11 May 23 12.01am

Starmer has an issue with the " red wall " unless he can change their opinions on:

Saville prosecution
Grooming gangs
What is a woman

There is enough anti Starmer on these issues to have a difference on the overall vote switch from Conservative back to Labour.

If Reform get busy on the ground for example they can have a an impact on where votes are cast.

There is a long way to go before the next GE, Starmer's PM in waiting act may be a bit premature.

I am now of the opinion that whoever gets into power the country is in a mess and no sign of improvement

Responsibility Deficit Disorder is a medical condition. Symptoms include inability to be corrected when wrong, false sense of superiority, desire to share personal info no else cares about, general hubris. It's a medical issue rather than pure arrogance.

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