March 14 2014

The Holmesdale Online

Jamie Seekings has crunched the numbers from previous Premier League campaigns and analysed Crystal Palace's chances of avoiding the drop. Can they do it?

With 27 points, and 28 games gone, what can we say about our chances of survival?

Some will look at fixture list and point to the difficult home games and our away record, whereas others will similarly point to those away games and say "if we win them...".

Below I've looked at the last 10 Premier League seasons and pulled out some interesting statistics that should increase our optimism ahead of the Sunderland game.

We don't need 40 points - It's possibly the most used phrase when talking about Premier League survival, yet we almost certainly don't need 40 points. Only once in the last 10 years has 40 points been a requirement - Wolves 2010/11.

In fact 36 points (a total we're on track to hit) would have certainly kept you up in 3/10 years, and maybe a fourth on goal difference.

27 points, at this stage, is "on track" - Looking at teams who had 27 points after 28 games shows you than in only 3/10 seasons has anyone with 27, or more, points gone down.

These include Sheffield Utd in 2006/07 (30), Newcastle 2008/09 (28) and then the statistical oddity of 2010/11 where Birmingham, Blackpool and West Ham all had more than 27 points at this stage and went down. Wigan, who survived, were bottom on 27 after 28.

Bottom 6 teams don't suddenly improve – There’s a temptation, looking at the fixture list, to state "we just need to win four or five of our last ten". The problem with that is if it was that easy then a team would have won 50% of its available games prior to that point.

Again, taking the last 10 years, the table below shows the performance of teams that ultimately finished 15th to 20th and their points gained over the last 10 games.

As you can see the best performing positions have been 15th and 17th – all other places are unable to even achieve a point a game in the last portion of the season i.e. the desperation for points does not improve performance.

Even the 15th and 17th place average points are effected by one off performances, 15th coming from West Ham’s 2006/07 haul of 21 points and Wigan’s 22 in 2011/12.

Taking those out moves the average to 11.88 – again barely above a point a game. The 17th number is enlarged by Portsmouth 2005/06 (20) – taking this away means the average drops to 10.33.

Drilling into those teams shows West Ham’s run being driven by Carlos Tevez (an “x” factor), Portsmouth to a Harry Redknapp renaissance and Wigan coming from experienced relegation campaigners and the management of Roberto Martinez.

Relating that to 2013/14 it’s hard to see an “x factor” in the Norwich side like Tevez, Pepe Mel doesn’t strike you as a Harry Redknapp type able to inspire a 2 points per game run in, and all the sides, apart from possibly Norwich, are struggling to find the right formula for success consistently tweaking personnel and formations.

Fulham are down… there’s only two places left - There’s no question you’d swap our run in for Fulham’s. Norwich, Hull, Stoke and us make up four of their last 5 (3 of which are home).

However, the best any team in 20th has done over the last 10 years, over the last ten games, has been Southampton 2004/05 and West Brom. 2008/09 – both gathering 11 points.

There’s no question 32 points won’t keep them up. They therefore need to finish this season better than any side in 20th position has ever done over the last 10 years.

36 points may be our “magic” number” – What I’ve then done is taken the points so far and then added on the average performances. Of course no-one can actually finish on 26.31 points, as Fulham have, but hopefully you get the idea.

Oddly enough the idea of 9 points from 10 games doesn’t seem so daunting – especially as you would like to think 3 would come from an already relegated Fulham on the last day (7 from 9 then).

Of course all of the above is playing at statistics, and records and sequences are forever broken. Who can forget the “Bottom at Christmas” phenomena which ended, at our expense, when West Brom stayed up in the 2004/05 season.

Therefore, to finish on a statistic that needs to be broken, which team, after 10 games, has had the lowest points total? That’s right, Crystal Palace 2013/14 with 3. Which, unbelievably, is 3 less than Derby County 2007/8 who finished on 11.

Up the Palace.