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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)

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Mapletree Croydon 04 Aug 19 11.32pm
In the end Parliament won’t allow a no deal Brexit. Maybe Johnson can get a slightly different deal than May and drive it through. Or go to the country to get a mandate for a no deal Brexit but that would be a huge risk for him.

Mapletree

Croydon 04 Aug 19 11.32pm

In the end Parliament won’t allow a no deal Brexit. Maybe Johnson can get a slightly different deal than May and drive it through. Or go to the country to get a mandate for a no deal Brexit but that would be a huge risk for him.

Invalid user 2019 04 Aug 19 11.48pm
Originally posted by Mapletree In the end Parliament won’t allow a no deal Brexit. Maybe Johnson can get a slightly different deal than May and drive it through. Or go to the country to get a mandate for a no deal Brexit but that would be a huge risk for him. Not an unlikely scenario. I've always thought that we may end up with an outcome that pleases no one.

Invalid user 2019

04 Aug 19 11.48pm

Originally posted by Mapletree

In the end Parliament won’t allow a no deal Brexit. Maybe Johnson can get a slightly different deal than May and drive it through. Or go to the country to get a mandate for a no deal Brexit but that would be a huge risk for him.

Not an unlikely scenario. I've always thought that we may end up with an outcome that pleases no one.

DANGERCLOSE London 05 Aug 19 10.01am
[Tweet Link]

DANGERCLOSE

London 05 Aug 19 10.01am

[Tweet Link]

Badger11 Beckenham 05 Aug 19 10.08am
Originally posted by DANGERCLOSE [Tweet Link] Would that be 3.5m per week on top of the 350m per week that Mrs May already committed to? But hang on we haven't left the EU yet. One more point

Badger11

Beckenham 05 Aug 19 10.08am

Originally posted by DANGERCLOSE

[Tweet Link]

Would that be 3.5m per week on top of the 350m per week that Mrs May already committed to? But hang on we haven't left the EU yet.

One more point

topcat Holmesdale / Surbiton 05 Aug 19 10.15am
Originally posted by dollardays Not an unlikely scenario. I've always thought that we may end up with an outcome that pleases no one. Whatever the outcome the majority will be unhappy although I suspect a few will make a (financial) killing in ways that I can't comprehend. It's 106 miles to Chicago, we got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark... and we're wearing sunglasses.

topcat

Holmesdale / Surbiton 05 Aug 19 10.15am

Originally posted by dollardays

Not an unlikely scenario. I've always thought that we may end up with an outcome that pleases no one.

Whatever the outcome the majority will be unhappy although I suspect a few will make a (financial) killing in ways that I can't comprehend.

It's 106 miles to Chicago, we got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it's dark... and we're wearing sunglasses.

Matov 05 Aug 19 1.09pm
Originally posted by Mapletree In the end Parliament won’t allow a no deal Brexit. Maybe Johnson can get a slightly different deal than May and drive it through. Or go to the country to get a mandate for a no deal Brexit but that would be a huge risk for him. Johnson is a historian. His mindset will be focused on notions of legacy and I suspect will take the risk. He has no choice. He won't wait for a vote of confidence. He will force the issue within the first 10 days of September. Parliament will be offered a choice of either revoking A50 or backing him in his 'No Deal' plan. Defining the narrative on those terms. Key to this is seeing how Labour react. Forget the Lib-Dems. All froth and piss. I would put the chances of an October election at 90% now. The only outlier being a potential Labour back-bench rebellion in favour of a no-deal Brexit. Lot of MP's up North looking over their shoulders. "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

Matov

05 Aug 19 1.09pm

Originally posted by Mapletree

Johnson is a historian. His mindset will be focused on notions of legacy and I suspect will take the risk. He has no choice.

He won't wait for a vote of confidence. He will force the issue within the first 10 days of September. Parliament will be offered a choice of either revoking A50 or backing him in his 'No Deal' plan. Defining the narrative on those terms.

Key to this is seeing how Labour react. Forget the Lib-Dems. All froth and piss.

I would put the chances of an October election at 90% now. The only outlier being a potential Labour back-bench rebellion in favour of a no-deal Brexit. Lot of MP's up North looking over their shoulders.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

dannyboy1978 05 Aug 19 2.25pm
And what if someone from the brexit party said the same about foreigners? BBC News - Jon Snow and Nigel Farage cleared by Ofcom over Brexit rally remarks [Link] We all know the answer

dannyboy1978

05 Aug 19 2.25pm

And what if someone from the brexit party said the same about foreigners?
BBC News - Jon Snow and Nigel Farage cleared by Ofcom over Brexit rally remarks
[Link]

We all know the answer

Spiderman Horsham 05 Aug 19 4.11pm
Originally posted by dannyboy1978 And what if someone from the brexit party said the same about foreigners? BBC News - Jon Snow and Nigel Farage cleared by Ofcom over Brexit rally remarks [Link] We all know the answer Yes we do. Jon Snow is one of the most condescending ar**s on TV. Hate the bloke

Spiderman

Horsham 05 Aug 19 4.11pm

Originally posted by dannyboy1978

And what if someone from the brexit party said the same about foreigners?
BBC News - Jon Snow and Nigel Farage cleared by Ofcom over Brexit rally remarks
[Link]

We all know the answer

Yes we do. Jon Snow is one of the most condescending ar**s on TV. Hate the bloke

Badger11 Beckenham 06 Aug 19 7.31am
The EU is standing firm and will not renegotiate the backstop or re-open the deal. [Link] I hope the media start to challenge those MPs who say they respect the referendum result but voted against May's deal because they believe they can do better e.g. Corbyn. The question that needs to be asked is what is your position if the EU continue to refuse to negotiate? It's all well and good to be against a no deal Brexit but if the other side won't negotiate then your position becomes illogical. This is where I hope Boris brings pressure to bear if these MP's are genuine then the logical thing is to reluctantly accept the no deal as a reality. Or are they just full of BS because they really don't want to leave. One more point

Badger11

Beckenham 06 Aug 19 7.31am

The EU is standing firm and will not renegotiate the backstop or re-open the deal.

[Link]

I hope the media start to challenge those MPs who say they respect the referendum result but voted against May's deal because they believe they can do better e.g. Corbyn. The question that needs to be asked is what is your position if the EU continue to refuse to negotiate?

It's all well and good to be against a no deal Brexit but if the other side won't negotiate then your position becomes illogical. This is where I hope Boris brings pressure to bear if these MP's are genuine then the logical thing is to reluctantly accept the no deal as a reality.

Or are they just full of BS because they really don't want to leave.

One more point

Badger11 Beckenham 06 Aug 19 9.30am
Just heard some belligerent German Eurocrat on the radio they are not for budging. The EU would rather have a no deal which will hurt their people than remove the backstop which wont actually impact the lives of their citizens. This is all about preserving the European dream rather then what is best for the economies of the EU. As Neil Kinnock said of Arthur Scargill during the miners strike "you can't negotiate with someone who won't negotiate." Hold your nerve Boris they may not blink but neither should you. One more point

Badger11

Beckenham 06 Aug 19 9.30am

Just heard some belligerent German Eurocrat on the radio they are not for budging.

The EU would rather have a no deal which will hurt their people than remove the backstop which wont actually impact the lives of their citizens.

This is all about preserving the European dream rather then what is best for the economies of the EU.

As Neil Kinnock said of Arthur Scargill during the miners strike "you can't negotiate with someone who won't negotiate."

Hold your nerve Boris they may not blink but neither should you.

One more point

steeleye20 Croydon 06 Aug 19 9.57am
What trade deal could the UK get with the USA or EU with the pound deteriorating to the floor. It was the pounds weakness that put paid to Eden's delusion over Suez. The pound would have to be raised but it has not been deliberately weakened to gain economic advantage, it is where it is because the World thinks so little of the UKs future.

steeleye20

Croydon 06 Aug 19 9.57am

What trade deal could the UK get with the USA or EU with the pound deteriorating to the floor.

It was the pounds weakness that put paid to Eden's delusion over Suez.

The pound would have to be raised but it has not been deliberately weakened to gain economic advantage, it is where it is because the World thinks so little of the UKs future.

Badger11 Beckenham 06 Aug 19 10.14am
Originally posted by steeleye20 What trade deal could the UK get with the USA or EU with the pound deteriorating to the floor. It was the pounds weakness that put paid to Eden's delusion over Suez. The pound would have to be raised but it has not been deliberately weakened to gain economic advantage, it is where it is because the World thinks so little of the UKs future. Or because currency speculators see a quick buck e.g. George Soros driving the pound out of the ERM. The pound is weak because of uncertainty which the markets hate. Let's see what happens after we have left before we start writing our obituary. One more point

Badger11

Beckenham 06 Aug 19 10.14am

Originally posted by steeleye20

What trade deal could the UK get with the USA or EU with the pound deteriorating to the floor.

It was the pounds weakness that put paid to Eden's delusion over Suez.

The pound would have to be raised but it has not been deliberately weakened to gain economic advantage, it is where it is because the World thinks so little of the UKs future.

Or because currency speculators see a quick buck e.g. George Soros driving the pound out of the ERM.

The pound is weak because of uncertainty which the markets hate. Let's see what happens after we have left before we start writing our obituary.

One more point

steeleye20 Croydon 06 Aug 19 10.23am
Originally posted by Badger11 Or because currency speculators see a quick buck e.g. George Soros driving the pound out of the ERM. The pound is weak because of uncertainty which the markets hate. Let's see what happens after we have left before we start writing our obituary. The Johnston world of blind optimism and obfuscation.

steeleye20

Croydon 06 Aug 19 10.23am

Originally posted by Badger11

Or because currency speculators see a quick buck e.g. George Soros driving the pound out of the ERM.

The pound is weak because of uncertainty which the markets hate. Let's see what happens after we have left before we start writing our obituary.

The Johnston world of blind optimism and obfuscation.

Badger11 Beckenham 06 Aug 19 11.00am
Originally posted by steeleye20 The Johnston world of blind optimism and obfuscation. Maybe or just a belief that this country will do just fine. One more point

Badger11

Beckenham 06 Aug 19 11.00am

Originally posted by steeleye20

The Johnston world of blind optimism and obfuscation.

Maybe or just a belief that this country will do just fine.

One more point

Maine Eagle USA 06 Aug 19 12.54pm
Originally posted by Badger11 Just heard some belligerent German Eurocrat on the radio they are not for budging. The EU would rather have a no deal which will hurt their people than remove the backstop which wont actually impact the lives of their citizens. This is all about preserving the European dream rather then what is best for the economies of the EU. As Neil Kinnock said of Arthur Scargill during the miners strike "you can't negotiate with someone who won't negotiate." Hold your nerve Boris they may not blink but neither should you. We would all do well to walk in other’s shoes from time to time. How the f*** would you feel about this nonsense and constant changing strategies from Britain if you were the EU? The backstop won’t impact the lives of their citizens? Did you actually just write that? Moronic drivel. Last time I checked Leo Varadkar spoke for a large swathe of EU citizens. You meant to say the backstop won’t impact your life, because you are ignorant of the matter in terms of how it is perceived in Ireland. Trump lost. Badly. Hahahahahahaha.

Maine Eagle

USA 06 Aug 19 12.54pm

Originally posted by Badger11

Just heard some belligerent German Eurocrat on the radio they are not for budging.

The EU would rather have a no deal which will hurt their people than remove the backstop which wont actually impact the lives of their citizens.

This is all about preserving the European dream rather then what is best for the economies of the EU.

As Neil Kinnock said of Arthur Scargill during the miners strike "you can't negotiate with someone who won't negotiate."

Hold your nerve Boris they may not blink but neither should you.

We would all do well to walk in other’s shoes from time to time.

How the f*** would you feel about this nonsense and constant changing strategies from Britain if you were the EU?

The backstop won’t impact the lives of their citizens? Did you actually just write that? Moronic drivel.

Last time I checked Leo Varadkar spoke for a large swathe of EU citizens.

You meant to say the backstop won’t impact your life, because you are ignorant of the matter in terms of how it is perceived in Ireland.

Trump lost. Badly. Hahahahahahaha.

Midlands Eagle 06 Aug 19 1.14pm
Originally posted by Maine Eagle The backstop won’t impact the lives of their citizens? Did you actually just write that? Moronic drivel. Last time I checked Leo Varadkar spoke for a large swathe of EU citizens. You meant to say the backstop won’t impact your life, because you are ignorant of the matter in terms of how it is perceived in Ireland. If we leave without a deal (that looks more and more likely) how will Ireland and the EU cope as we don't have to do anything as it will have become their problem. Neither Ireland nor the EU will accept a hard border so it will solve the problems of the Welsh farmers if all they have to do is to drive their sheep over the open border from Northern Ireland to the Republic and tariff free exports will have been maintained

Midlands Eagle

06 Aug 19 1.14pm

Originally posted by Maine Eagle

The backstop won’t impact the lives of their citizens? Did you actually just write that? Moronic drivel.

Last time I checked Leo Varadkar spoke for a large swathe of EU citizens.

You meant to say the backstop won’t impact your life, because you are ignorant of the matter in terms of how it is perceived in Ireland.

If we leave without a deal (that looks more and more likely) how will Ireland and the EU cope as we don't have to do anything as it will have become their problem.

Neither Ireland nor the EU will accept a hard border so it will solve the problems of the Welsh farmers if all they have to do is to drive their sheep over the open border from Northern Ireland to the Republic and tariff free exports will have been maintained

Lyons550 Shirley 06 Aug 19 1.42pm
Originally posted by SW19 CPFC For sure. I was almost convinced last week that it is now almost certain to be no deal but reading around a lot of chat is that for all his positive bluster it is, essentially, the emperors new clothes I did enjoy the news about the massive countdown clock though. “At some point his government is going to have to stop promising stuff and actually start doing stuff. How many times can he talk about ‘free ports’ before someone asks what exactly he means and what he’s actually planning to do about it? He’s managed to promise a brand new immigration system to the surprise of the Home Office, who are currently two years into delivering a different brand new immigration system and still waiting for him to get round to appointing an immigration minister.” Classic. As long as one of the is Hull i'll be happy The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

Lyons550

Shirley 06 Aug 19 1.42pm

Originally posted by SW19 CPFC

For sure.

I was almost convinced last week that it is now almost certain to be no deal but reading around a lot of chat is that for all his positive bluster it is, essentially, the emperors new clothes

I did enjoy the news about the massive countdown clock though.

“At some point his government is going to have to stop promising stuff and actually start doing stuff. How many times can he talk about ‘free ports’ before someone asks what exactly he means and what he’s actually planning to do about it? He’s managed to promise a brand new immigration system to the surprise of the Home Office, who are currently two years into delivering a different brand new immigration system and still waiting for him to get round to appointing an immigration minister.”

Classic.

As long as one of the is Hull i'll be happy

The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

Lyons550 Shirley 06 Aug 19 1.52pm
Originally posted by steeleye20 What trade deal could the UK get with the USA or EU with the pound deteriorating to the floor. It was the pounds weakness that put paid to Eden's delusion over Suez. The pound would have to be raised but it has not been deliberately weakened to gain economic advantage, it is where it is because the World thinks so little of the UKs future. Surely there's a vacumn being created with the trade war between China and the US which may allow us to export to both with things the other produces? The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

Lyons550

Shirley 06 Aug 19 1.52pm

Originally posted by steeleye20

What trade deal could the UK get with the USA or EU with the pound deteriorating to the floor.

It was the pounds weakness that put paid to Eden's delusion over Suez.

The pound would have to be raised but it has not been deliberately weakened to gain economic advantage, it is where it is because the World thinks so little of the UKs future.

Surely there's a vacumn being created with the trade war between China and the US which may allow us to export to both with things the other produces?

The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

Lyons550 Shirley 06 Aug 19 1.54pm
Originally posted by Maine Eagle We would all do well to walk in other’s shoes from time to time. How the f* would you feel about this nonsense and constant changing strategies from Britain if you were the EU? The backstop won’t impact the lives of their citizens? Did you actually just write that? Moronic drivel. Last time I checked Leo Varadkar spoke for a large swathe of EU citizens. You meant to say the backstop won’t impact your life,** because you are ignorant of the matter in terms of how it is perceived in Ireland. Lovin the irony of you posting this...well played sir The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

Lyons550

Shirley 06 Aug 19 1.54pm

Originally posted by Maine Eagle

We would all do well to walk in other’s shoes from time to time.

How the f*** would you feel about this nonsense and constant changing strategies from Britain if you were the EU?

The backstop won’t impact the lives of their citizens? Did you actually just write that? Moronic drivel.

Last time I checked Leo Varadkar spoke for a large swathe of EU citizens.

You meant to say the backstop won’t impact your life, because you are ignorant of the matter in terms of how it is perceived in Ireland.

Lovin the irony of you posting this...well played sir

The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

Badger11 Beckenham 06 Aug 19 2.06pm
Originally posted by Maine Eagle We would all do well to walk in other’s shoes from time to time. How the f* would you feel about this nonsense and constant changing strategies from Britain if you were the EU? The backstop won’t impact the lives of their citizens? Did you actually just write that? Moronic drivel.** Last time I checked Leo Varadkar spoke for a large swathe of EU citizens. You meant to say the backstop won’t impact your life, because you are ignorant of the matter in terms of how it is perceived in Ireland. I think you meant to say you disagree with my opinion. If we leave without a deal what is the difference to a deal without a backstop. The EU has already said that they will put in place checks away from the border so why wont that work within a deal. Already the leader of the Irish farmers has asked the Irish PM to stop Britain signing new trade deals because he is worried that Irish farm exports will collapse. The Irish PM however is more concerned about keeping the EU happy than his own farmers. I would prefer a deal rather than no deal however the ball is in the court of the EU. The back stop was always a political tactic that has run it's course I don't think it's worth the EU risking exports to the UK when they already have a solution. One more point

Badger11

Beckenham 06 Aug 19 2.06pm

Originally posted by Maine Eagle

We would all do well to walk in other’s shoes from time to time.

How the f*** would you feel about this nonsense and constant changing strategies from Britain if you were the EU?

The backstop won’t impact the lives of their citizens? Did you actually just write that? Moronic drivel.

Last time I checked Leo Varadkar spoke for a large swathe of EU citizens.

You meant to say the backstop won’t impact your life, because you are ignorant of the matter in terms of how it is perceived in Ireland.

I think you meant to say you disagree with my opinion.

If we leave without a deal what is the difference to a deal without a backstop. The EU has already said that they will put in place checks away from the border so why wont that work within a deal.

Already the leader of the Irish farmers has asked the Irish PM to stop Britain signing new trade deals because he is worried that Irish farm exports will collapse. The Irish PM however is more concerned about keeping the EU happy than his own farmers.

I would prefer a deal rather than no deal however the ball is in the court of the EU. The back stop was always a political tactic that has run it's course I don't think it's worth the EU risking exports to the UK when they already have a solution.

One more point

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