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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)
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 Wisbech Eagle  Truro Cornwall 10 Dec 20 11.18am |
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Originally posted by becky
Yes, because we no longer have to pay the EU XXXX billion a year 'membership' for the privilege of having those deals. What's not to like about that? It will cost us much more to carry out all the additional administration and regulation approval as non-members. Those membership fees pay for a great deal more than just a Parliament and a bureaucracy.
For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally. |
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| Matov 10 Dec 20 11.19am |
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Originally posted by chris123
Emmanuel Macron has an election in 2022 and really doesn't want to see leaving the Union as a major success.
Impossible to call anything at the moment. Voices I listen to reckon he is putting on a big show about the fishing but ultimately its not a deal breaker but who genuinely knows at the moment? The UK, and the rest of the EU26, need to be wary of the little b****** though. No playing with a full deck.
"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell. |
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cryrst  The garden of England 10 Dec 20 11.20am |
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Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
It will cost us much more to carry out all the additional administration and regulation approval as non-members. Those membership fees pay for a great deal more than just a Parliament and a bureaucracy. But we only pay that once then it's done.
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| Badger11 Beckenham 10 Dec 20 11.21am |
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Originally posted by chris123
Emmanuel Macron has an election in 2022 and really doesn't want to see leaving the Union as a major success. Yup this is all about politics. He doesn't want to be seen as having caved in. However If major areas of the French economy are suffering maybe the voters will be asking the question why didn't you do a deal with the UK. Right now French fishermen will have zero access to our waters on Jan 1 this will have a huge impact on their fishing fleet. of course they will publicly blame the British but I expect they will be putting pressure on Macron to sort it out. The good news is that Jan 1 is not a cliff edge. I expect talks will continue in some shape of form and if they can reach an agreement after that it will be a matter of weeks before it is implemented. It is also likely that smaller deals will be done perhaps on visa's and the like. Edited by Badger11 (10 Dec 2020 11.23am)
One more point |
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| Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 10 Dec 20 11.24am |
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Originally posted by Badger11
WE may I suggest you start your own little business. Selling T shirts with a UK / EU Remain symbol and a "I told you So" slogan . If your correct you will sell millions.
Bit early for that and anyway I'm really not interested in making cheap political points. Despite all the suggestions on here. We will see.
For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally. |
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| Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 10 Dec 20 11.29am |
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Originally posted by cryrst
It does seem like you wish it to cause the uk harm. I am not the least interested in "I told you so" for its own sake. I want people to accept that if it does go the way I anticipate that we need to change again, and not stand on high hobby horses just because you don't like admitting you were wrong.
For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally. |
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| Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 10 Dec 20 11.34am |
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Originally posted by cryrst
But we only pay that once then it's done. Not in any way. The admin is constant and so will be the need for the reviews of regulations to ensure alignment with other regimes, most notably that of the EU.
For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally. |
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| Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 10 Dec 20 11.38am |
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Originally posted by BlueJay
A lot of it is saving face I'd say. I expect we'll get a late in the day deal that both sides will claim demonstrates they held firm and that it is on their terms. Very unlikely. The EU cannot compromise their position. They don't have the authority to do so, even if they wanted to, which they don't. It on our side that any shift is possible and that is not going to happen, given the language. This is just a blame game now.
For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally. |
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| Badger11 Beckenham 10 Dec 20 11.42am |
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Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
Very unlikely. The EU cannot compromise their position. They don't have the authority to do so, even if they wanted to, which they don't. It on our side that any shift is possible and that is not going to happen, given the language. This is just a blame game now. Why do you say that? They can do what they like it will have to be ratified by the EU Parliament and the national governments but that was always going to happen and maybe it will be rejected. I agree with you that if anyone caves it is likely to be us so I am suspicious if any deal is reached until we see the small print.
One more point |
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| Spiderman Horsham 10 Dec 20 12.30pm |
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Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
I am not the least interested in "I told you so" for its own sake. I want people to accept that if it does go the way I anticipate that we need to change again, and not stand on high hobby horses just because you don't like admitting you were wrong. But if it all goes well, will you admit you were wrong or just continue to find a negative in everything
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| Spiderman Horsham 10 Dec 20 1.04pm |
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Hope these get done before the sky falls in.
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| kevlee born Wandsworth emigrated to Lanc... 10 Dec 20 1.54pm |
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Originally posted by Stirlingsays
If only we could have a 'brexit' for these fifth columnists. Commie Lord Haw Haws. Are you referring to Jim Radcliffe, James Dyson and Jacob Rees-Mogg etc by any chance? Its not right when people say were all in it together and then scurry out the back door with their money to base it in the EU. If we are to make leave work (which we have to) these types of behaviors need to be taken to task.
Following Palace since 25 Feb 1978 |
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ASCPFC  Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 10 Dec 20 3.18pm |
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Originally posted by steeleye20
I wonder what the other member states think of this, it appears that a former member of the EU has more clout than they do. The idea that the UK could access the single market without meeting the standards that members have to adhere too, is amazingly called 'punishing' the UK!! 'Where love has gone, angels fear to tread' Even the EU has to eventually face reality. If they want any money from the UK then they will have to compromise as Germany and basically everyone except France wants. Britain has its deal with Japan, Japan, in turn did a deal across the now largest trading bloc in the world, in Asia. It went somewhat under the radar. Firstly, because no one expected Japan and China to sign a trade deal, secondly, it doesn't suit the remain narrative press.
Red and Blue Army! |
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| BlueJay UK 10 Dec 20 3.33pm |
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Originally posted by Matov
To a certain extent, maybe. But politically, it is the EU that is in much more of a mire than the UK. Johnson has a huge majority, still enjoys reasonably good polling on a variety of fronts despite the s*** show that 2020 has been. The issue for the EU is less about Brexit now but more about the wider cohesion in the East. And whilst Macron might make noises about fishing, it is Poland and Hungary that causing Brussels far more headaches at the moment. The EU know that the UK is gone and not coming back. No British election is going to include even a hint of us rejoining the EU for probably 25 years at a minimum and even then that presupposes the EU still exists in a recognisable form. Politically if there is no chance of a deal then Johnson stands far more to gain by having walked a while ago. Probably back in October. Logistically it would have made sense and given what happened in the 2019 GE, there are zero electoral downsides to no deal. The people making all the noise are not the people who would ever vote Tory in the first place. Hence why I think this is now all about essentially forcing the EU to pass the agreement without to much time for detailed scrutiny. Johnson has all the political cards on his side with only Scotland the possible fly in the ointment but that is a solvable problem with once again, no real downsides politically for Johnson eve if Scotland do vote to leave eventually. Again, no votes up there that matter. Definitely some good points. I hope Johnson plays to his and our strengths. I'm not sure that he's really excelled in pressure situations since becoming PM, so if he can force a favourable deal, or failing that forge ahead in a meaningful direction regardless, that would put us in good stead. As you say the EU has problems aplenty outside of the Brexit saga and so may be more willing to agree to a deal that's less favourable for them just to move beyond this. Time will tell!
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| Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 10 Dec 20 3.48pm |
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Originally posted by Badger11
Why do you say that? They can do what they like it will have to be ratified by the EU Parliament and the national governments but that was always going to happen and maybe it will be rejected. I agree with you that if anyone caves it is likely to be us so I am suspicious if any deal is reached until we see the small print. If my understanding is correct the EU regard what is being asked for would, if granted, destroy the integrity of the single market, which is one of the key underlying principles. Neither the Commission nor the Parliament can compromise that, and I don't think the heads of state could either without a new convention. This is a clash of unreconcilable basic principles. Johnson has painted himself into a corner from which there is no escape.
For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally. |
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| Wisbech Eagle Truro Cornwall 10 Dec 20 3.56pm |
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Originally posted by Spiderman
But if it all goes well, will you admit you were wrong or just continue to find a negative in everything Of course. Just don't hold your breath. It would be 30 years by some of the Brexiteers own estimates before we recovered to where we were. The disaster will be apparent much sooner than that. I shall retire from this thread for a while now and not return, unless by some miracle we do get a deal agreed, for a few months when we can review just how things are progressing. Until then you can share each other's anti-EU sentiments, and prophecies of it's impending implosion, to your heart's content.
For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally. |
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| Badger11 Beckenham 10 Dec 20 3.56pm |
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Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
If my understanding is correct the EU regard what is being asked for would, if granted, destroy the integrity of the single market, which is one of the key underlying principles. Neither the Commission nor the Parliament can compromise that, and I don't think the heads of state could either without a new convention. This is a clash of unreconcilable basic principles. Johnson has painted himself into a corner from which there is no escape. Thank you for clarifying that. I don't believe it is a barrier the EU always finds away around things if it wants to. The EU constitution was rejected by French voters but later re-emerged as the treaty of Lisbon. Where there's a will..
One more point |
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 Hrolf The Ganger 10 Dec 20 3.57pm |
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Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
Totally predictable replies from the usual suspects so far who have all got their heads so deep in the sand that they cannot even see the end of their nose. With one exception. Respect to Matov. The trade deals we are doing with others are broadly on the same terms as we already have as EU members. So we negotiate something we already had and then claim a success? The idea that somehow the next few years are going to bring us opportunities is preposterous. It's going to bring us nothing but pain. The pandemic ensures that. Brexit is likely to significantly add to that pain. Growing frustration from Scotland, in particular, will add noise and pressure for their independence and the break up of the UK, with us then having an EU member with a land border. Business would flow north. Whilst some of you might be prepared to put up with that pain because we have "got back control" what I asked was what your limit would be? How much before you change your mind? The tone of the replies suggests you would accept total ruin and still be happy. Whether the brass nosed hardliners would cling to their straws as the UK sinks to the bottom is not actually the issue. It is how much would the majority of the people accept? You know those nasty people out there that were tricked into just voting it over the line in the first place, many of whom already have regrets. How much will they take before they demand change and when they do how on earth will the Tories respond? We all know that people often wrongly attribute cause and effect and that politicians are adept at using that to advance their own agendas. It was done by the Brexiteers and it will be done again with the impact of the pandemic, a lot of which will be seen as a consequence of Brexit. So dismiss these thoughts if it makes you feel better. Describe people like me as traitors if that helps. The problems and these possibilities might be beyond thinking about for you but they are real and they won't just be wished away. Nor, believe me, are the many millions like me who disagreed with the whole idea in the first place. Many "remainers" have been taking a pause for breath, to re-energise and reorganise during this period. As the next years pass expect to see them become much more active. The wind will be in their sails, with the tide of history firmly flowing their way. You will be on the back foot trying to scrape the mould off the jam you promised tomorrow. I always said it was a long haul. Nothing has changed. The chickens are all on their way home. Home being within the EU where we now belong. Seek help.
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