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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)
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 blackpalacefan  25 Jun 16 4.32pm |
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Originally posted by jamiemartin721
Maybe, maybe not. I don't think its easy to be that sure. Leave could turn out to be a disaster, as well. Thing of the EU is that there is good and bad, and same with leaving it, there can be good and bad. That's irrelivent, though, its about what the people want, not what is the right idea. I agree. Lots of people around here seem to think they have access to a crystal ball. They mistake their level of satisfaction with the result for political and economic insight. It could be that the end result is unsatisfactory to all. Namely a worse economy and immigration figures comparable to now.
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| Rudi Hedman Caterham 25 Jun 16 4.43pm |
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Originally posted by Kermit8
In what significant and tangible way exactly say in ten years will you have been proven to be right do you think? And what will the upsides prove to be? Edited by Kermit8 (25 Jun 2016 4.16pm) Still trading with the EU. We are German the car makers' biggest buyer. 20% of their cars. 2nd wealthiest European nation with cash to spend (ignore the short-term FTSE/pound fall to claim we're behind France cos we aint) Expansion of markets outside of the EU which are restricted. They crossed at 50% in 2008 and non-EU exports are at 45% but because of some very hefty tariffs in some cases we struggle to expand. Result? More jobs in a globalised world. A shift into more manufacturing entrepreneurial spirit. Less reliance on just services and financial services to be precise. Remember how damaged we were after the last financial crises and liquidity stopped? Restricted immigration. When the living wage comes into effect in 2020 and it amounts to another 100% or 200% more than people can earn in their own country, what do you think it's going to do to our own citizens' employment? A chance to get more on top of the housing crisis that's been going on since 2004 when the floodgates were opened. Were plans made to house the freedom of movement? No. Were they honest about the numbers coming? No. New Labour said ten's of thousands. We've seen hundreds of thousands every year. Less net earnings leaving the country and reducing the multiplier effect. There's talk of tax receipts in excess of benefit claims by EU migrants of 2 billion. What about wages leaving the country? Apparently the more rational EU London workers have laughed about the referendum and said "Well we're already here and if we left because everyone else did then so what. We're only here for the money and we don't blame Britain for voting out anyway." Some EU workers before the ref were saying immigration was out of control and needed reducing. More markets, more consumers, more demand, more prosperity, stronger economy, stronger nation, prouder nation. More room, more land unused, more options for the young to buy property, start a family and raise tax payers to balance out the ageing population instead of importing tax payers and ignoring the wages leaving the UK.
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Kermit8  Hevon 25 Jun 16 4.51pm |
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Originally posted by matt_himself
Michael, are you going to answer my previous question about Remain's vision and how it was going to solve the housing 'crisis' and all the stuff you were going on about a few pages ago? I don't remember Remain ever claiming staying in the EU was going to solve the housing crisis and nor do you but I do certainly remember 'Leave' on here and out there claiming a vote to 'exit' would significantly help. I wanted to know from you how that can be when our population is going to be over 70mill by 2030 and with the oncoming economic slowdown to be brought on by Brexit? Well? Any silence on this matter will be taken as a 'fair cop, guv'
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| Kermit8 Hevon 25 Jun 16 4.57pm |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
Still trading with the EU. We are German the car makers' biggest buyer. 20% of their cars. 2nd wealthiest European nation with cash to spend (ignore the short-term FTSE/pound fall to claim we're behind France cos we aint) Expansion of markets outside of the EU which are restricted. They crossed at 50% in 2008 and non-EU exports are at 45% but because of some very hefty tariffs in some cases we struggle to expand. Result? More jobs in a globalised world. A shift into more manufacturing entrepreneurial spirit. Less reliance on just services and financial services to be precise. Remember how damaged we were after the last financial crises and liquidity stopped? Restricted immigration. When the living wage comes into effect in 2020 and it amounts to another 100% or 200% more than people can earn in their own country, what do you think it's going to do to our own citizens' employment? A chance to get more on top of the housing crisis that's been going on since 2004 when the floodgates were opened. Were plans made to house the freedom of movement? No. Were they honest about the numbers coming? No. New Labour said ten's of thousands. We've seen hundreds of thousands every year. Less net earnings leaving the country and reducing the multiplier effect. There's talk of tax receipts in excess of benefit claims by EU migrants of 2 billion. What about wages leaving the country? Apparently the more rational EU London workers have laughed about the referendum and said "Well we're already here and if we left because everyone else did then so what. We're only here for the money and we don't blame Britain for voting out anyway." Some EU workers before the ref were saying immigration was out of control and needed reducing. More markets, more consumers, more demand, more prosperity, stronger economy, stronger nation, prouder nation. More room, more land unused, more options for the young to buy property, start a family and raise tax payers to balance out the ageing population instead of importing tax payers and ignoring the wages leaving the UK. A very interesting answer. Ta. Pity not one of the 25 top economists at the independent Institute of Fiscal Studies sees it like that. Maybe they were short-termists. Let's hope you are right for a few of them. Dark days ahead before that beam of light. Edited by Kermit8 (25 Jun 2016 5.00pm)
Big chest and massive boobs |
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| Rudi Hedman Caterham 25 Jun 16 4.57pm |
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Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle
I now live in Cornwall and I cannot believe some of the attitudes I hear here. They have voted leave by a big margin and just seem to think that the EU funding they have had doesn't matter. The response I get everywhere is "Don't worry, it will be OK". It won't be OK, unless something is done. I have given up trying to debate with the leavers. Now is not the time to bang my head against the doors of the stupid. Enough of them will come to their senses pretty soon and wish they had voted remain. There will always be a hard core of UKIP types, because, along with the poor, the stupid will always be among us, but they need to be marginalised, rather than engaged. They are beyond reason. Now is the time to galvanise our politicians and ensure they do their duty. This was not a decisive vote. Now people can see that the forecasted impact was all true, and that the leave campaign was built on lies, if we held another referendum I am 100% sure the result would now be very different. If the Scots can get a second referendum as a consequence of this then so can we! It will require our politicians to grow balls and accept the break up of the current parties, but that is also a very desirable outcome. That is where my attention is now focussed. That is where a difference can be made. The right wing nasties need to be cast off and the UK truly reclaimed. For all those middle of the road, normally silent, peace loving people, who are neither left nor right but just ordinary decent people. Maybe the Norwegian option can be invoked? 'Now people can see that the forecasted impact was all true, and that the leave campaign was built on lies, if we held another referendum I am 100% sure the result would now be very different.' What, are after 1 day of financial trading? What lies? Nigel Farage saying it was an error to sa the EU membership money would go on the NHS? He won't be in the govt, cabinet or treasury but what he said at the end was that it was available to spend on a number of things including the NHS.
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| Rudi Hedman Caterham 25 Jun 16 4.59pm |
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Originally posted by Kermit8
I don't remember Remain ever claiming staying in the EU was going to solve the housing crisis and nor do you but I do certainly remember 'Leave' on here and out there claiming a vote to 'exit' would significantly help. I wanted to know from you how that can be when our population is going to be over 70mill by 2030 and with the oncoming economic slowdown to be brought on by Brexit? Well? Any silence on this matter will be taken as a 'fair cop, guv' No because pro-EU types didn't give a sh1t back in 2004 through to now 12 years later.
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| nickgusset Shizzlehurst 25 Jun 16 5.01pm |
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Originally posted by chris123
People really should not believe everything they read, whatever the source, do their own research, ask questions and be a bit sceptical!! A lot of people did research and a lot of people take what they read in the linens as gospel.
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| Rubin 25 Jun 16 5.04pm |
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Originally posted by Kermit8
Standing down UK'S EU Commissioner Lord Hill ""I came to Brussels as someone who had campaigned against Britain joining the euro and who was sceptical about Europe. But, obviously, the 17million know better than this fella. Why does he know more than Daniel Hannan and other anti EU MEP's? I'm pretty sure that being the commissioner AND a lord will mean that he's more likely to take the government line.
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| Rubin 25 Jun 16 5.09pm |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
'Now people can see that the forecasted impact was all true, and that the leave campaign was built on lies, if we held another referendum I am 100% sure the result would now be very different.' What, are after 1 day of financial trading? What lies? Nigel Farage saying it was an error to sa the EU membership money would go on the NHS? He won't be in the govt, cabinet or treasury but what he said at the end was that it was available to spend on a number of things including the NHS. The FTSE's back up to where it was when the Sunderland result came through.
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| blackpalacefan 25 Jun 16 5.09pm |
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Originally posted by Rubin
Why does he know more than Daniel Hannan and other anti EU MEP's? I'm pretty sure that being the commissioner AND a lord will mean that he's more likely to take the government line. Daniel Hannan isnt even for minimal immigration and wants to remain in the single market, meaning that we'll still likely have to allow freedom of movement.
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| Rudi Hedman Caterham 25 Jun 16 5.12pm |
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Originally posted by Kermit8
A very interesting answer. Ta. Pity not one of the 25 top economists at the independent Institute of Fiscal Studies sees it like that. Maybe they were short-termists. Let's hope you are right for a few of them. Dark days ahead before that beam of light. Edited by Kermit8 (25 Jun 2016 5.00pm) This nation will go on for centuries, not a few years or one economic life cycle. A lot of us would like to see and leave it in good shape, not a car park or a place to come and rinse money out of it whilst our own people don't progress. People have said it's shameful we've left and then you get irritants like Will Self who drone on about how the migrants are feeling. Feck me, what country is this man from? What about the people of his own country? I cringe when I read the macho social media posts stating how they wouldn't want to be side by side with cowards and yellow bellies in a war but later start to agree slightly when you hear the Wilf Self type discard his own country's citizens. And we are shameful? FFS. Edited by Rudi Hedman (25 Jun 2016 5.14pm)
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| Rubin 25 Jun 16 5.15pm |
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Originally posted by blackpalacefan
Daniel Hannan isnt even for minimal immigration and wants to remain in the single market, meaning that we'll still likely have to allow freedom of movement. Yet he's still against the EU. Not everyone voted to leave based on immigration. Anyone in their right mind wouldn't object to staying in the single market.
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| matt_himself Matataland 25 Jun 16 5.17pm |
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Originally posted by Kermit8
I don't remember Remain ever claiming staying in the EU was going to solve the housing crisis and nor do you but I do certainly remember 'Leave' on here and out there claiming a vote to 'exit' would significantly help. I wanted to know from you how that can be when our population is going to be over 70mill by 2030 and with the oncoming economic slowdown to be brought on by Brexit? Well? Any silence on this matter will be taken as a 'fair cop, guv' Michael, poor answer. What about my question about Remain's vision for Britain following a remain vote? Where is the answer to that? Where has that 70 million figure come from? Is it factoring in emigration from the EU or is it, like most things you post, a figure plucked out of some half arsed propaganda you have half read and use as fact? And where did Leave claim it would help with the housing crisis? Please help me to answer your deflection question. Any silence will be interpreted as 'I haven't got a f***ing clue on I am wittering on about. Again'. Edited by matt_himself (25 Jun 2016 5.18pm)
"That was fun and to round off the day, I am off to steal a charity collection box and then desecrate a place of worship.” - Smokey, The Selhurst Arms, 26/02/02 |
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| blackpalacefan 25 Jun 16 5.33pm |
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"Sky News has learnt that the billionaire tycoon Wilbur Ross, who is among seven bidders shortlisted for Tata Steel's UK business, has signalled that exiting the EU would diminish the prospects of him pursuing a takeover. A number of other prospective buyers are understood to have similar concerns about the potential impact of Brexit on global demand for steel, the robustness of new trade deals negotiated by the Government, and the ability to sell steel produced in the UK in the European single market. "Wilbur has been reasonably open that this deal is far less attractive if Brexit happens," said a person who has discussed the Tata Steel situation with Mr Ross. Sources said this weekend that Tata Steel, which employs roughly 11,000 people in the UK, had raised the possibility of putting its British business into some form of liquidation, although they added that no decisions had been taken." [Link]
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 Cucking Funt Clapham on the Back 25 Jun 16 5.42pm |
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Originally posted by Kermit8
A very interesting answer. Ta. Pity not one of the 25 top economists at the independent Institute of Fiscal Studies sees it like that. Maybe they were short-termists. Let's hope you are right for a few of them. Dark days ahead before that beam of light. Edited by Kermit8 (25 Jun 2016 5.00pm) Wasn't that the survey where 17 of them didn't even bother replying?
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| blackpalacefan 25 Jun 16 5.50pm |
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Tory Brexiter Daniel Hannan: Leave campaign never promised "radical decline" in immigration [Link]
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tome  Inner Tantalus Time. 25 Jun 16 5.52pm |
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Originally posted by Ouzo Dan
I am quite optimistic about the future, once we have negotiated our exit & we continue to have freedom of movement across Europe, businesses agree new trade deals etc & with no EU interference we can look into freedom of movement among the main players of the Commonwealth (something Boris has supported for years) It could give us the best of both worlds. minimum wages NZ - .25 Edited by Ouzo Dan (25 Jun 2016 10.39am) Not sure I follow this - as others have pointed out, the Leave side have backtracked a bit from some of the figures they've used and on immigration numbers being reduced as a consequence of leaving. Also, not sure what your point about minimum wage is - these are all roughly the same when you take into account exchange rates.
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| tome Inner Tantalus Time. 25 Jun 16 5.55pm |
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Originally posted by blackpalacefan
These are my concerns. The German economy would have much more to lose by the EU falling apart at the seams than it would be sending a message to other nations that life outside of the EU is fine and dandy. Power in numbers. They will perhaps all be wiling to take a medium sized hit in exchange for a dramtic effect on us. If we lose access to the single market or have tarrifs coming out of our ears germany will become Europes trading centre, so it's win - win for them to give us a hard time. Obama has reaffirmed his view that we are at the back of the queue. It's a view that makes sense surely since we stop being the convenient european single market access point we once were. It's in their interest to have a strong EU and so we can expect a transfer of empahsis to those nations. Will it be the end of the world for us? No life goes on either way but i fear our economy will take a huge long term big hit and I also dont think its realistic to imagine that immigration will drops to tens of thousands either, so the entire reason for voting out for many could prove to be pointless. Nothing would make be happier than to me wrong and for us long term to have control of numbers coming in and a strong economy so of course i just that i'm wrong and it works out for future generations. Like everyone really i dont know what will happen, these are just my concerns. Edited by blackpalacefan (25 Jun 2016 1.58pm) These are all good points, as well as cheesing off a large chunk of our current trading partners inside the EU, we'll have to figure out where the money is going to come from to sort out all these trade deals. I thought we were already in austerity, but I guess we haven't seen anything yet.
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