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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)
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 Rudi Hedman  Caterham 30 Jun 16 8.02pm |
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Originally posted by thechaddyboy
If May gets the vote I can see the 'Leave' result being shelved on the basis it's unworkable. Why?
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Kermit8  Hevon 30 Jun 16 8.02pm |
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Originally posted by thechaddyboy
If May gets the vote I can see the 'Leave' result being shelved on the basis it's unworkable. Which would be the rational thing to do. People have vented their fury. And I don't believe the majority of Leavers actually do think it is worth being genuinely worse off years after the event (if we are going to be). Nearly 10 years to do a deal with EU? If that is true and it it looks like it could be going by Canada then we really need to stop venting and start thinking.
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| susmik PLYMOUTH -But Made in Old Coulsdon... 30 Jun 16 8.06pm |
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Originally posted by thechaddyboy
If May gets the vote I can see the 'Leave' result being shelved on the basis it's unworkable. NO CHANCE it has to be followed through.
Supported Palace for over 69 years since the age of 7 and have seen all the ups and downs and will probably see many more ups and downs before I go up to the big football club in the sky. |
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| blackpalacefan 30 Jun 16 8.11pm |
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Originally posted by Kermit8
"The European Union's top trade official says the UK cannot begin negotiating terms for doing business with the bloc until after it has left.
We are definitely at a disadantage being that we can't negotiate anything until we enact article 50. We also have more to lose with the damage from a crap deal being spread thinly across EU nations but more concentrated on us. The EU has to weigh up giving us an okay deal with not appearing generous to the point where others think leaving is a consequence free move. I suspect though that the US will apply preasure for the EU to be fair as in the big picture it does nobody any favours to badly damage our economy. It would damage everyone. The end result will be an EEA deal where we contribute as much financially in the EU as we do now but with no direct say. It's possible we might be able to get a compromise of 'freedom of movement' but very far from certain. If we do I think most people both remain and leave voters will be satisfied with that. If we don't get to make changes to freedom of movement, it will make leaving pointless and result in the population of Turkey being able to move here if they are eventually allowed to join the EU. This would of course have been impossible if we'd been in the EU as we could've vetoed it.
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| blackpalacefan 30 Jun 16 8.18pm |
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Originally posted by Kermit8
Which would be the rational thing to do. People have vented their fury. And I don't believe the majority of Leavers actually do think it is worth being genuinely worse off years after the event (if we are going to be). Nearly 10 years to do a deal with EU? If that is true and it it looks like it could be going by Canada then we really need to stop venting and start thinking. Most people wouldn't agree that the result should be shelved. It makes the vote pointless. We should respect the outcome now that the people have narrowly decided. Of course depending on the deal leaving could be a bad thing, but until we know what the deal is we won't know if its something that most people feel good or bad about. It's out of our hands now. Admittedly leaving is the gamble short to medium term at least and if it results in a s*** economy for years and with no changes being made to freedom of movement for decades to come it will indeed have been a vote that has dimiished our nation. Right now though anyone that pretends there's any certainty in either camp or adopts a told you so smugness is just guessing. It could work out very well for us if we get what we want. If we don't it could be a disaster.
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| Kermit8 Hevon 30 Jun 16 8.36pm |
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Originally posted by blackpalacefan
Most people wouldn't agree that the result should be shelved. It makes the vote pointless. We should respect the outcome now that the people have narrowly decided. Of course depending on the deal leaving could be a bad thing, but until we know what the deal is we won't know if its something that most people feel good or bad about. It's out of our hands now. Admittedly leaving is the gamble short to medium term at least and if it results in a s*** economy for years and with no changes being made to freedom of movement for decades to come it will indeed have been a vote that has dimiished our nation. Right now though anyone that pretends there's any certainty in either camp or adopts a told you so smugness is just guessing. It could work out very well for us if we get what we want. If we don't it could be a disaster. There is some certainty though. If we don't leave we can carry on trading as normal in real time from now and if we do leave we can't. Plus, 'yes' 52% of the the 34 million have spoken but if some profound negative facts about leaving are advertised by senior politicians who were in the Brexit camp then they - the 52- should be allowed to either re-iterate their vote or change their mind. That then would be really democratic.
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| blackpalacefan 30 Jun 16 9.21pm |
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Originally posted by Stirlingsays
If the EU want to hurt us then all they are going to do is hurt themselves. If they say we can't cherry pick then fine, then Germany can lose a lot of jobs as well. Personally as Germany are the ones who are going to have to pick up on most of our 15 percent contributions I think a poor deal is unlikely. But if so, good.....it will bring its inevitable demise closer. If the deal is EEA with some freedom of movement changes which is something of a best case scenario, we'll pay almost exactly what we do now anyway so they won't need to pick up on anything. Edited by blackpalacefan (30 Jun 2016 9.26pm)
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| Rudi Hedman Caterham 30 Jun 16 9.32pm |
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Originally posted by blackpalacefan
We are definitely at a disadantage being that we can't negotiate anything until we enact article 50. We also have more to lose with the damage from a crap deal being spread thinly across EU nations but more concentrated on us. The EU has to weigh up giving us an okay deal with not appearing generous to the point where others think leaving is a consequence free move. I suspect though that the US will apply preasure for the EU to be fair as in the big picture it does nobody any favours to badly damage our economy. It would damage everyone. The end result will be an EEA deal where we contribute as much financially in the EU as we do now but with no direct say. It's possible we might be able to get a compromise of 'freedom of movement' but very far from certain. If we do I think most people both remain and leave voters will be satisfied with that. If we don't get to make changes to freedom of movement, it will make leaving pointless and result in the population of Turkey being able to move here if they are eventually allowed to join the EU. This would of course have been impossible if we'd been in the EU as we could've vetoed it. You say thinly but Germany and France export double to us what we export to them. I admit the smaller EU countries export little to us and that's where the impact is small, but the UK/French/German situation give us a position to bargain from. The French finance minister was interviewed by Evan Davis last night on Newsnight. He said "things are on the table for discussion, including freedom of movement. There could be room for negotiation." The Swedish leader said under no circumstances would the UK get single market access without freedom of movement. France are cracking. Merkel will be under pressure from German manufacturers. Hollande and Merkel are campaigning elections next year. This is far from over. We need to get at them and them in turn get at the other 25. Hard, but not impossible. 'If history has taught us anything, it's taught us anything is possible', Michael Corleone to Al Neeri and Rocco before the Hyman Roth assassination. Edited by Rudi Hedman (30 Jun 2016 9.35pm)
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| blackpalacefan 30 Jun 16 9.38pm |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
You say thinly but Germany and France export double to us what we export to them. I admit the smaller EU countries export little to us and that's where the impact is small, but the UK/French/German situation give us a position to bargain from. The French finance minister was interviewed by Evan Davis last night on Newsnight. He said things are on the table for discussion, including freedom of movement. There could be room for negotiation. The Swedish leader said under no circumstances would the UK get single market access without freedom of movement. France are cracking. Merkel will be under pressure from German manufacturers. Hollande and Merkel are campaigning elections next year. This is far from over. We need to get at them and them in turn get at the other 25. Hard, but not impossible. 'If history has taught us anything, it's taught us anything is possible', Michael Corleone to Al Neeri and Rocco before the Hyman Roth assassination. I do hope so. That's the best case scenario. The worry is that we need every single EU nation to agree to the deal. So with that in mind and our disadvantage in not even being able to discuss a deal until we start the two year process, so need a lot to go our way. If the wider economy starts to tank before we have a new leader that might help us in a perverse way. If it starts to become clear though that it's hitting us much harder than anyone and companies start going abroad boosting their economies we find ourselves in a weak position. It's out of our hands so we just get to do the rubbernecking now!
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| Rudi Hedman Caterham 30 Jun 16 9.52pm |
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This is worth reading. [Link] The Daily Mail link has comments from the interview and May's intentions. The start of the page quotes Holande saying Britain can keep border agents in Calais (a remain lie!) Mrs May will pledge there can be no turning back on Brexit and the wishes of the British public must be implemented in full, including curbs on migrants. She will appoint a Eurosceptic MP as a cabinet minister for Brexit. Mrs May and Mr Johnson, who will run on the slogan Back Boris 2016, are preparing for a nine-week fight to the bitter end. Yesterday, the Home Secretary refused to cut any deal with her fierce rival. The breakthrough on migrant curbs came in a BBC2 Newsnight interview with Mr Sapin. But, asked if freedom of movement would be a non-negotiable red line, Mr Sapin replied: ‘Everything will be on the table because Britain will make proposals, and we will negotiate all these aspects with a desire to come to an agreement. ‘Britain won’t be in the same position as it was beforehand. Things will change. Things have already changed. We return to zero. As we say in French: a clean slate. ‘When we negotiate with a country, a third party, Norway, Switzerland to take countries that are very close, we discuss all subjects: under what conditions there is freedom of movement of people; freedom of movement of goods; of capital. ‘That is something that is very important for the UK with all the questions about financial services. So we discuss everything.’ Finland’s deputy PM Timo Soini last night said the EU should have no red lines during the Brexit negotiations – including on the principle of free movement. Mr Soini, who also serves as foreign minister, told Sky News: ‘I am a great friend of the UK, and all of Europe should be. I am sure when the shockwaves go over we will get a sensible approach. I would recommend to everyone else that there should be no grudges, ill will, revenge or red lines. We are friends and Europeans – let’s get together and work it out.’ Asked about the prospects of a deal on free movement, he said: ‘That is one of the biggest issues in the negotiations. But when we are negotiating, I think red lines are not the best possible idea.’ The comments by France and Finland could also boost the chances of 34 other referendums in other European countries, a study has found. ‘Insurgent’ political parties across the continent are seeking to challenge traditional elites through popular votes on subjects ranging from membership of the EU and keeping the euro to stopping the influx of refugees.
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| blackpalacefan 30 Jun 16 9.55pm |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
This is worth reading. [Link] The Daily Mail link has comments from the interview and May's intentions. The start of the page quotes Holande saying Britain can keep border agents in Calais (a remain lie!) Mrs May will pledge there can be no turning back on Brexit and the wishes of the British public must be implemented in full, including curbs on migrants. She will appoint a Eurosceptic MP as a cabinet minister for Brexit. Mrs May and Mr Johnson, who will run on the slogan Back Boris 2016, are preparing for a nine-week fight to the bitter end. Yesterday, the Home Secretary refused to cut any deal with her fierce rival. The breakthrough on migrant curbs came in a BBC2 Newsnight interview with Mr Sapin. But, asked if freedom of movement would be a non-negotiable red line, Mr Sapin replied: ‘Everything will be on the table because Britain will make proposals, and we will negotiate all these aspects with a desire to come to an agreement. ‘Britain won’t be in the same position as it was beforehand. Things will change. Things have already changed. We return to zero. As we say in French: a clean slate. ‘When we negotiate with a country, a third party, Norway, Switzerland to take countries that are very close, we discuss all subjects: under what conditions there is freedom of movement of people; freedom of movement of goods; of capital. ‘That is something that is very important for the UK with all the questions about financial services. So we discuss everything.’ Finland’s deputy PM Timo Soini last night said the EU should have no red lines during the Brexit negotiations – including on the principle of free movement. Mr Soini, who also serves as foreign minister, told Sky News: ‘I am a great friend of the UK, and all of Europe should be. I am sure when the shockwaves go over we will get a sensible approach. I would recommend to everyone else that there should be no grudges, ill will, revenge or red lines. We are friends and Europeans – let’s get together and work it out.’ Asked about the prospects of a deal on free movement, he said: ‘That is one of the biggest issues in the negotiations. But when we are negotiating, I think red lines are not the best possible idea.’ The comments by France and Finland could also boost the chances of 34 other referendums in other European countries, a study has found. ‘Insurgent’ political parties across the continent are seeking to challenge traditional elites through popular votes on subjects ranging from membership of the EU and keeping the euro to stopping the influx of refugees. Let us hope that there is movement on this front. It would be a good outcome for worried remain and leave voters alike.
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| Mapletree Croydon 30 Jun 16 10.00pm |
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Originally posted by blackpalacefan
Most people wouldn't agree that the result should be shelved. It makes the vote pointless. We should respect the outcome now that the people have narrowly decided. Of course depending on the deal leaving could be a bad thing, but until we know what the deal is we won't know if its something that most people feel good or bad about. It's out of our hands now. Admittedly leaving is the gamble short to medium term at least and if it results in a s*** economy for years and with no changes being made to freedom of movement for decades to come it will indeed have been a vote that has dimiished our nation. Right now though anyone that pretends there's any certainty in either camp or adopts a told you so smugness is just guessing. It could work out very well for us if we get what we want. If we don't it could be a disaster. If we were to re-run the referendum today, what do people think the outcome would be? Would it have changed? If so, then what really is the will of the people?
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| Rudi Hedman Caterham 30 Jun 16 10.03pm |
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Originally posted by Mapletree
If we were to re-run the referendum today, what do people think the outcome would be? Would it have changed? If so, then what really is the will of the people? Can we discard the Scottish vote then? They claim they want to leave the UK now we've voted leave so it's democratically fair they're not included.
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| blackpalacefan 30 Jun 16 10.16pm |
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Originally posted by Mapletree
If we were to re-run the referendum today, what do people think the outcome would be? Would it have changed? If so, then what really is the will of the people? I actually think it'd be the same result. Most people accept that we've had the vote and so are now set on this path. I've spoken to several leave voters who are as worried as remainers about things now but time will tell, it might work out. There's a plus side to everything, if as a nation we messed up due to being misled over claims by either side, then that's something that we get to live with and think about. In my experience how people feel about things now depends on how much the economy is at the forefront of their mind, the high numbers of immigrants coming in, or just a general dislike of difference and foreigners. People in the first two categories, most people, are definitely concerned to varying degrees because there are big unknowns on both counts, but if it works out those worries may be misplaced. The 'general dislike' people who are all about getting pissed off when they hear a foreign accent or try to get out of ever associating with foreigners or people that 'look foreign' don't care of course, because to them it's all about keeping things 'familiar'. There aren't that many people like that really though thankfully. Edited by blackpalacefan (30 Jun 2016 10.17pm)
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 Hrolf The Ganger 30 Jun 16 10.17pm |
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Originally posted by Mapletree
If we were to re-run the referendum today, what do people think the outcome would be? Would it have changed? If so, then what really is the will of the people? Yeah, let's just have ten referendum and get an average.
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| Rudi Hedman Caterham 30 Jun 16 10.21pm |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
Yeah, let's just have ten referendum and get an average. Make it like the World Snooker Final. Best of 33. Get Barry Hearn to promote it and reduce the national debt.
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| Hrolf The Ganger 30 Jun 16 10.25pm |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
Make it like the World Snooker Final. Best of 33. Get Barry Hearn to promote it and reduce the national debt. I don't know. Let's have a referendum about it.
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| blackpalacefan 30 Jun 16 10.27pm |
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Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger
I don't know. Let's have a referendum about it. If we had a snap election that in itself would be a bit like another referendum, but the labour party has fallen apart and only 7 people vote libdem so the result is a foregone conclusion anyway lol
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| Stuk Top half 30 Jun 16 10.32pm |
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Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
Make it like the World Snooker Final. Best of 33. Get Barry Hearn to promote it and reduce the national debt. There's not enough profit in that since the EU banned tobacco advertising.
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