You are here: Home > Message Board > News & Politics > Topic
October 31 2026 2.19pm

This page is no longer updated, and is the old forum. For new topics visit the New HOL forum.

The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)


Page 191 of 1552 < 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 >
Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards Hrolf The Ganger Flag 30 Jun 16 10.33pm

Originally posted by blackpalacefan

If we had a snap election that in itself would be a bit like another referendum, but the labour party has fallen apart and only 7 people vote libdem so the result is a foregone conclusion anyway lol

You'd think so, but look how the referendum went.

 

Mapletree Flag Croydon 30 Jun 16 10.46pm

Originally posted by blackpalacefan

I actually think it'd be the same result. Most people accept that we've had the vote and so are now set on this path. I've spoken to several leave voters who are as worried as remainers about things now but time will tell, it might work out. There's a plus side to everything, if as a nation we messed up due to being misled over claims by either side, then that's something that we get to live with and think about.

In my experience how people feel about things now depends on how much the economy is at the forefront of their mind, the high numbers of immigrants coming in, or just a general dislike of difference and foreigners. People in the first two categories, most people, are definitely concerned to varying degrees because there are big unknowns on both counts, but if it works out those worries may be misplaced. The 'general dislike' people who are all about getting pissed off when they hear a foreign accent or try to get out of ever associating with foreigners or people that 'look foreign' don't care of course, because to them it's all about keeping things 'familiar'. There aren't that many people like that really though thankfully.

Edited by blackpalacefan (30 Jun 2016 10.17pm)

I would bet good money the turnout would go up. Not actually sure what the outcome would be but my point is referenda are populist and therefore relatively fickle.

 

Stirlingsays Flag 01 Jul 16 7.01am

Originally posted by blackpalacefan

If the deal is EEA with some freedom of movement changes which is something of a best case scenario, we'll pay almost exactly what we do now anyway so they won't need to pick up on anything.

Edited by blackpalacefan (30 Jun 2016 9.26pm)


Time will tell I suppose. Common sense would be to lessen damage on both sides on trade.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

DivingIsNotGood Flag se25 01 Jul 16 7.11am

I was laughed off this thread when I stated there would be a massive recession, and many people will lose their homes.
Soon people will start to take my quotes seriously and realise, no, he's not a nut job after all!

 


VOTING OUT - Brexit will allow Britain to embrace the Commonwealth and be GREAT again

Kermit8 Flag Hevon 01 Jul 16 7.24am

Originally posted by DivingIsNotGood

I was laughed off this thread when I stated there would be a massive recession, and many people will lose their homes.
Soon people will start to take my quotes seriously and realise, no, he's not a nut job after all!


Will never happen.

The last sentence.

 


Big chest and massive boobs

[Link]


DivingIsNotGood Flag se25 01 Jul 16 7.45am

Originally posted by Kermit8


Will never happen.

The last sentence.


[Link]

 


VOTING OUT - Brexit will allow Britain to embrace the Commonwealth and be GREAT again

DaiShwmae Flag 01 Jul 16 8.41am

Originally posted by Mapletree

I would bet good money the turnout would go up. Not actually sure what the outcome would be but my point is referenda are populist and therefore relatively fickle.

The turnout would probably be increased by all the remainers that didn't turn up for the original Referendum(I know a few), the ones that took it as a given that Remain would win so didn't bother voting.

 

DaiShwmae Flag 01 Jul 16 8.49am

Originally posted by blackpalacefan

If we had a snap election that in itself would be a bit like another referendum, but the labour party has fallen apart and only 7 people vote libdem so the result is a foregone conclusion anyway lol

Labour would lose a chunk of votes to Ukip but it would largely depend on what plans they had for EU negotiations. The tories may actually lose some seats to Ukip and Remainer Lib-dems.

TBH, it's all up in the air, as it's difficult to gauge the public's reaction to the complete shambles that's followed the referendum.

Edited by DaiShwmae (01 Jul 2016 8.50am)

 

Kermit8 Flag Hevon 01 Jul 16 9.57am

That was me in Alien v The Muppets

 


Big chest and massive boobs

[Link]


OknotOK Flag Cockfosters, London 01 Jul 16 10.49am

Originally posted by thechaddyboy

If May gets the vote I can see the 'Leave' result being shelved on the basis it's unworkable.

I think she'll kick the can a long way down the road.

She's already said she will not trigger article 50 this year. So we'll get into next year and negotiations (formal or informal) will continue. And we'll get to the stage where we agree an EEA model allowing free movement of goods, services, capital, and people plus a slightly reduced contribution.

Then finally we'll leave and people will barely notice the difference.

Businesses will be materially unaffected. And the only people "worse off" will be the electorate who will have to deal with all of the rules and regulations and freedoms of the EU, but with none of the say at the negotiating table.

 


"It's almost like a moral decision. Except not really cos noone is going to find out," Jez, Peep Show

Cucking Funt Flag Clapham on the Back 01 Jul 16 11.28am

Originally posted by OknotOK

I think she'll kick the can a long way down the road.

She's already said she will not trigger article 50 this year. So we'll get into next year and negotiations (formal or informal) will continue. And we'll get to the stage where we agree an EEA model allowing free movement of goods, services, capital, and people plus a slightly reduced contribution.

Then finally we'll leave and people will barely notice the difference.

Businesses will be materially unaffected. And the only people "worse off" will be the electorate who will have to deal with all of the rules and regulations and freedoms of the EU, but with none of the say at the negotiating table.

Democracy is for poofs, it would seem.

 


Wife beating may be socially acceptable in Sheffield, but it is a different matter in Cheltenham

JohnyBoy Flag 01 Jul 16 11.37am

Originally posted by OknotOK

I think she'll kick the can a long way down the road.

She's already said she will not trigger article 50 this year. So we'll get into next year and negotiations (formal or informal) will continue. And we'll get to the stage where we agree an EEA model allowing free movement of goods, services, capital, and people plus a slightly reduced contribution.

Then finally we'll leave and people will barely notice the difference.

Businesses will be materially unaffected. And the only people "worse off" will be the electorate who will have to deal with all of the rules and regulations and freedoms of the EU, but with none of the say at the negotiating table.

Here's where we are.
I voted remain and was as gutted as anyone but we are where we are and an out vote is out...end of..we would hope.....but now that becomes the problem. Because the markets are now pricing in a 30% chance of brexit never happening and even if it does we get a brexit 'light' i.e. still paying a large contribution (without a rebate) and 80% of freedom of eu movement (i.e. no significant reduction in immigration), but free trade and no veto (if e.g. Turkey tried to join.)
What does this mean: the uk economy gdp growth for next 12 months will shrink from 2.3% to 0.8% (so techically not a recession) problem is it will feel like one because what is keeping it positive is external trade ( boosted by the much weaker pound) but domestic demand will be much harder hit. If you work in construction, estate agency, advertising or any other sector that relies on domestic demand then prepare yourself for job losses, wage reductions etc. If you work in a sector exposed to us$ sales e.g pharma, oil then you will likely notice very little.
My investment advice would be to get out of property, out of domestically focussed uk equities and strategically short sterling where possible.
Meanwhile look very closely at the bond markets (the canary in the coal mine). 10y yields are now below 1% down 40+bps in one week. Annuities are 8% lower than before the referendum and remember most financial assets had been priced with some brexit risk. There will have to be some reallignment in public spending i.e reduce spending on nhs, pensions or benefits unless we throw out our fiscal discipline and raise debt (which then becomes more expensive exacerbated by credit rating downgrades 'with negative outlook'....some call it hobsons choice....but we have made it...like it or not.
The thing however that could make this all worse (apart from a political vacuum and the absence of a plan) is uncertainty over whether brexit will happen. This will likely only get worse as people begin to feel the pain in job losses, inflation etc and places like cornwall realises it will lose funding. However, as much as i was a strong remainer and am gutted to leave we have to GET OVER IT, WE VOTED LEAVE so press the article 50 button asap...and live with it.

 

Mapletree Flag Croydon 01 Jul 16 11.39am

Originally posted by OknotOK

I think she'll kick the can a long way down the road.

She's already said she will not trigger article 50 this year. So we'll get into next year and negotiations (formal or informal) will continue. And we'll get to the stage where we agree an EEA model allowing free movement of goods, services, capital, and people plus a slightly reduced contribution.

Then finally we'll leave and people will barely notice the difference.

Businesses will be materially unaffected. And the only people "worse off" will be the electorate who will have to deal with all of the rules and regulations and freedoms of the EU, but with none of the say at the negotiating table.

You really think the economy can live with that level of uncertainty for so long?

Mind you, the alternative is just as bad I suppose. Article 50 and then 2 years minimum of trying to work out how to adjust.

Batten down the hatches, it's going to be a bumpy ride. Especially for those entering the labour market - or becoming pensioners - in the next couple of years. And that is where I came in to this discussion.

 

Part Time James Flag 01 Jul 16 11.41am

Originally posted by Cucking Funt

Democracy is for poofs, it would seem.

Is it "poofs" or "pooves" the plural?

 




Cucking Funt Flag Clapham on the Back 01 Jul 16 11.47am

Originally posted by Part Time James

Is it "poofs" or "pooves" the plural?

Interesting point you raise there as 'poove' can also be used as a singular form.

I'm guessing there's no right answer. It's sure to be something that'll be hotly debated in the years to come.

 


Wife beating may be socially acceptable in Sheffield, but it is a different matter in Cheltenham

-TUX- Flag Alphabettispaghetti 01 Jul 16 11.57am

Originally posted by JohnyBoy

Here's where we are.
I voted remain and was as gutted as anyone but we are where we are and an out vote is out...end of..we would hope.....but now that becomes the problem. Because the markets are now pricing in a 30% chance of brexit never happening and even if it does we get a brexit 'light' i.e. still paying a large contribution (without a rebate) and 80% of freedom of eu movement (i.e. no significant reduction in immigration), but free trade and no veto (if e.g. Turkey tried to join.)
What does this mean: the uk economy gdp growth for next 12 months will shrink from 2.3% to 0.8% (so techically not a recession) problem is it will feel like one because what is keeping it positive is external trade ( boosted by the much weaker pound) but domestic demand will be much harder hit. If you work in construction, estate agency, advertising or any other sector that relies on domestic demand then prepare yourself for job losses, wage reductions etc. If you work in a sector exposed to us$ sales e.g pharma, oil then you will likely notice very little.
My investment advice would be to get out of property, out of domestically focussed uk equities and strategically short sterling where possible.
Meanwhile look very closely at the bond markets (the canary in the coal mine). 10y yields are now below 1% down 40+bps in one week. Annuities are 8% lower than before the referendum and remember most financial assets had been priced with some brexit risk. There will have to be some reallignment in public spending i.e reduce spending on nhs, pensions or benefits unless we throw out our fiscal discipline and raise debt (which then becomes more expensive exacerbated by credit rating downgrades 'with negative outlook'....some call it hobsons choice....but we have made it...like it or not.
The thing however that could make this all worse (apart from a political vacuum and the absence of a plan) is uncertainty over whether brexit will happen. This will likely only get worse as people begin to feel the pain in job losses, inflation etc and places like cornwall realises it will lose funding. However, as much as i was a strong remainer and am gutted to leave we have to GET OVER IT, WE VOTED LEAVE so press the article 50 button asap...and live with it.

Re- the markets, other than the usual 'panic', the result of the referendum hasn't changed a thing. A huge downturn is due regardless, but 'Brexit' will no doubt be blamed by many.

Since the turn of the year, Gold +40% Silver +50%. These rises will continue for a long while yet, imo.

 


Time to move forward together.

nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 01 Jul 16 12.08pm

Originally posted by Part Time James

Is it "poofs" or "pooves" the plural?

The prooves are in the puddings

 

silvertop Flag Portishead 01 Jul 16 12.11pm

Originally posted by -TUX-

Re- the markets, other than the usual 'panic', the result of the referendum hasn't changed a thing. A huge downturn is due regardless, but 'Brexit' will no doubt be blamed by many.

Since the turn of the year, Gold +40% Silver +50%. These rises will continue for a long while yet, imo.


Money is moving in the direction of recession future proofing and we should not worry?

 

OknotOK Flag Cockfosters, London 01 Jul 16 12.21pm

Originally posted by Cucking Funt

Democracy is for poofs, it would seem.

Well that would still represent democracy. No one officially voted on the model for Brexit. And the majority of our democratically elected representatives support Remain and/or an EEA model.

So they wouldn't strictly be thwarting our democracy, they'd just be subverting it in a way they knew wasn't what was intended by the voting public....

.... the lying deceitful scumbags.

Edited by OknotOK (01 Jul 2016 12.21pm)

 


"It's almost like a moral decision. Except not really cos noone is going to find out," Jez, Peep Show

Part Time James Flag 01 Jul 16 12.26pm

Originally posted by nickgusset

The prooves are in the puddings

I don't want to sound like one of them homophobes or nuffink but I aint having any more pudding if it's made by pooves or prooves. Get back to Russia.

 




Page 191 of 1552 < 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 >

You are here: Home > Message Board > News & Politics > Topic