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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)


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Part Time James Flag 01 Jul 16 12.28pm

Originally posted by Cucking Funt

Interesting point you raise there as 'poove' can also be used as a singular form.

I'm guessing there's no right answer. It's sure to be something that'll be hotly debated in the years to come.

I'd say a poof is probably just a bloke likes a bit of other male bum (perfectly normal and accepted in society).

A poove is probably one that talks like Alan Carr and says "OMG" when they see scatter cushions. Fair game for hate crime I say.

 




-TUX- Flag Alphabettispaghetti 01 Jul 16 12.29pm

Originally posted by silvertop


Money is moving in the direction of recession future proofing and we should not worry?

I've not said we shouldn't worry, many should.
Hopefully they'll be a tad more aware now than they were.


Edited by -TUX- (01 Jul 2016 12.31pm)

 


Time to move forward together.

DivingIsNotGood Flag se25 01 Jul 16 1.15pm

VOTE TO REMAIN will LOVE this [Link]

 


VOTING OUT - Brexit will allow Britain to embrace the Commonwealth and be GREAT again

blackpalacefan Flag 01 Jul 16 4.41pm

I notice that none of the leadership contenders have yet had the honesty to state that the very moment we leave the EU to default to WTO rules. You can't transition out of it. We default to WTO trading from the moment we enact article 50 'until' we have a new rule in place - which will be years. That will instantly elevate tarrifs and create other barriers. Even if we get a deal together in two year which in trade terms seems unlikely, very significant damage will be done to the country during that period. To make matters worse even our WTO access is based on our EU membership. "The head of the WTO has stated that it is likely the UK will have to renegotiate the terms of its WTO membership, as at least some members will not be happy to simply allow UK membership to continue." so we'll get screwed by the rest of the world too but just the EU.


An interesting phase by phase take on what the next few years might have in hold for us [Link]

Edited by blackpalacefan (01 Jul 2016 4.55pm)

 

Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 01 Jul 16 5.22pm

Originally posted by OknotOK

I think she'll kick the can a long way down the road.

She's already said she will not trigger article 50 this year. So we'll get into next year and negotiations (formal or informal) will continue. And we'll get to the stage where we agree an EEA model allowing free movement of goods, services, capital, and people plus a slightly reduced contribution.

Then finally we'll leave and people will barely notice the difference.

Businesses will be materially unaffected. And the only people "worse off" will be the electorate who will have to deal with all of the rules and regulations and freedoms of the EU, but with none of the say at the negotiating table.

When did she say she will not trigger article 50 this year? Did she say it in her presentation yesterday or last night or today? If this is true then she's going to infuriate a lot of people after being elected PM by the Tory party membership.

Stalling till after a General Election may satisfy some but it's unlikely to help our aims, especially when the Tories will win whatever. Does she want the mandate and less blame rather than no mandate and a better hand and conditions by any chance?

 


COYP

DaiShwmae Flag 01 Jul 16 5.27pm

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

When did she say she will not trigger article 50 this year? Did she say it in her presentation yesterday or last night or today? If this is true then she's going to infuriate a lot of people after being elected PM by the Tory party membership.

Stalling till after a General Election may satisfy some but it's unlikely to help our aims, especially when the Tories will win whatever. Does she want the mandate and less blame rather than no mandate and a better hand and conditions by any chance?

I'm sure I heard Gove say he wouldn't be triggering article 50 this year today too. I may have misheard him though.

 

blackpalacefan Flag 01 Jul 16 5.36pm

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

When did she say she will not trigger article 50 this year? Did she say it in her presentation yesterday or last night or today? If this is true then she's going to infuriate a lot of people after being elected PM by the Tory party membership.

Stalling till after a General Election may satisfy some but it's unlikely to help our aims, especially when the Tories will win whatever. Does she want the mandate and less blame rather than no mandate and a better hand and conditions by any chance?

The moment we leave, we're back to WTO rules which will instantly be very damaging to many of our industries. The WTO tarrifs are also likely to be worse than they are already and require renegotiation because they too are connected to our EU membership. If she has said this, it's very sensible as there is an awful lot to unpick and work out to the point where just starting the countdown ASAP and 'seeing what happens' isn't a responsible or intelligent plan.

Let a new leader of a new government find their feet because it's a momumental task that is likely to be damaging economically at least however it pans out. We don't even have a team together to try to negotiate the deal. The sensible move you could argue is to wait and wait and wait until the EU offers some assurances. Legally that is difficult as we can't form a new agreement while in this one, but one of the few strengths we have is that we haven't left yet. They don't want us to 'leave now' for our own health.


Edited by blackpalacefan (01 Jul 2016 6.13pm)

 

Mapletree Flag Croydon 01 Jul 16 6.04pm

Originally posted by blackpalacefan

I notice that none of the leadership contenders have yet had the honesty to state that the very moment we leave the EU to default to WTO rules. You can't transition out of it. We default to WTO trading from the moment we enact article 50 'until' we have a new rule in place - which will be years. That will instantly elevate tarrifs and create other barriers. Even if we get a deal together in two year which in trade terms seems unlikely, very significant damage will be done to the country during that period. To make matters worse even our WTO access is based on our EU membership. "The head of the WTO has stated that it is likely the UK will have to renegotiate the terms of its WTO membership, as at least some members will not be happy to simply allow UK membership to continue." so we'll get screwed by the rest of the world too but just the EU.


An interesting phase by phase take on what the next few years might have in hold for us [Link]

Edited by blackpalacefan (01 Jul 2016 4.55pm)

Thanks for the link which is incredibly useful.

 

Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 01 Jul 16 6.40pm

Originally posted by blackpalacefan

The moment we leave, we're back to WTO rules which will instantly be very damaging to many of our industries. The WTO tarrifs are also likely to be worse than they are already and require renegotiation because they too are connected to our EU membership. If she has said this, it's very sensible as there is an awful lot to unpick and work out to the point where just starting the countdown ASAP and 'seeing what happens' isn't a responsible or intelligent plan.

Let a new leader of a new government find their feet because it's a momumental task that is likely to be damaging economically at least however it pans out. We don't even have a team together to try to negotiate the deal. The sensible move you could argue is to wait and wait and wait until the EU offers some assurances. Legally that is difficult as we can't form a new agreement while in this one, but one of the few strengths we have is that we haven't left yet. They don't want us to 'leave now' for our own health.


Edited by blackpalacefan (01 Jul 2016 6.13pm)

I agree on the team issue. I was saying the same last Friday when people wanted article 50 triggered that very day.

The problem with not triggering article 50 and wanting assurances from the EU is discussions will have to start secretly with France and Germany. Otherwise nothing happens for a long time.

At some point something has to happen or what are you waiting for? The fall out may not be bad for the EU now, but it will be for some, if not all EU countries, especially France and Germany. The evidence of that was last week when the Dax and CAC fell faster and further than Ulrika's p&nts.

 


COYP

blackpalacefan Flag 01 Jul 16 7.06pm

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

I agree on the team issue. I was saying the same last Friday when people wanted article 50 triggered that very day.

The problem with not triggering article 50 and wanting assurances from the EU is discussions will have to start secretly with France and Germany. Otherwise nothing happens for a long time.

At some point something has to happen or what are you waiting for? The fall out may not be bad for the EU now, but it will be for some, if not all EU countries, especially France and Germany. The evidence of that was last week when the Dax and CAC fell faster and further than Ulrika's p&nts.

When we leave the EU we will be leaving the banking passporting system. We'd then be unable to trade with the whole of the EU from London, a huge and damaging change from currently being a world hub and the gateway into Europe. Things like this and the implications of the WTO situation will need to be figured out before we leave.

When negotiating a new deal I suspect that we'll either not get the freedom of movement changes we're looking for, or we will get them but in exchange for giving up our access to the passporting system, the EU will see that as an opportunity to move the banking hub to Frankfurt or somewhere else in the EU resulting in tens of billions lost and hundreds of thousands of jobs. Once we're out of the EU the deal we get is out of our control to a large extent. It's whatever us and 27 EU countries 'all' agree on. Until something is agreed we are at the greatest disadvantage by far. Even if we get our way on everything, much damage would be done in the years previous as by default we're WTO and lose the passporting system. The city depends on it and will be forced to move to areas with single market access hugely setting back our economy. All kinds of businesses other than that wil be impacted too by the WTO scenario and general fallout. If that is a fair exchange for people who want freedom of movement stopped then that's fine, but since nobody has even talked about the worrying WTO and passporting it really just seems that 99% of people both don't know exactly what they have voted for and the implications of it.

There is little chance of getting out of this without financially being seriously reduced as a nation and in turn our clout too. Our primary strength right now is that we haven't left. We should be wanting to stall on that for as long as possible because until we leave damage is spread more uniformly. That creates space for forcing the EUs hand into giving us certain reassurances being we do leave. It's one of our useful bargaining chips. If we leave now it will be a complete disaster. I wouldn't care if immigration was zero per year but it's how workable something is, the consequences of it and the best way of going about it. If we're worried about employment, wages and so on then this action is not about to make any of those situations better. We are in for a grim decade unless we can manage to salvage something out of a situation that people have been too busy cheering about to entertain the realities of.

Edited by blackpalacefan (01 Jul 2016 7.43pm)

 

Mapletree Flag Croydon 01 Jul 16 7.52pm

Originally posted by blackpalacefan

When we leave the EU we will be leaving the banking passporting system. We'd then be unable to trade with the whole of the EU from London, a huge and damaging change from currently being a world hub and the gateway into Europe. Things like this and the implications of the WTO situation will need to be figured out before we leave.

When negotiating a new deal I suspect that we'll either not get the freedom of movement changes we're looking for, or we will get them but in exchange for giving up our access to the passporting system, the EU will see that as an opportunity to move the banking hub to Frankfurt or somewhere else in the EU resulting in tens of billions lost and hundreds of thousands of jobs. Once we're out of the EU the deal we get is out of our control to a large extent. It's whatever us and 27 EU countries 'all' agree on. Until something is agreed we are at the greatest disadvantage by far. Even if we get our way on everything, much damage would be done in the years previous as by default we're WTO and lose the passporting system. The city depends on it and will be forced to move to areas with single market access hugely setting back our economy. All kinds of businesses other than that wil be impacted too by the WTO scenario and general fallout. If that is a fair exchange for people who want freedom of movement stopped then that's fine, but since nobody has even talked about the worrying WTO and passporting it really just seems that 99% of people both don't know exactly what they have voted for and the implications of it.

There is little chance of getting out of this without financially being seriously reduced as a nation and in turn our clout too. Our primary strength right now is that we haven't left. We should be wanting to stall on that for as long as possible because until we leave damage is spread more uniformly. That creates space for forcing the EUs hand into giving us certain reassurances being we do leave. It's one of our useful bargaining chips. If we leave now it will be a complete disaster. I wouldn't care if immigration was zero per year but it's how workable something is, the consequences of it and the best way of going about it. If we're worried about employment, wages and so on then this action is not about to make any of those situations better. We are in for a grim decade unless we can manage to salvage something out of a situation that people have been too busy cheering about to entertain the realities of.

Edited by blackpalacefan (01 Jul 2016 7.43pm)

Erudite, depressing and no doubt due to be classed as bed wetting. As most of this is self-evident I still hope the politicians in the end will say f*ck this, we are going to stand up for what is right for the country not what is politically expedient. Even if that means going against a majority decision. There is still a chance.

 

blackpalacefan Flag 01 Jul 16 8.20pm

Originally posted by Mapletree

Erudite, depressing and no doubt due to be classed as bed wetting. As most of this is self-evident I still hope the politicians in the end will say f*ck this, we are going to stand up for what is right for the country not what is politically expedient. Even if that means going against a majority decision. There is still a chance.

I would just assume that it will happen and prepare for the worst. If the outcome is better than it could be then in the longterm the country will get back on an even keel. If it's worse then it's a lesson in dealing with whatever life presents.

 

JohnyBoy Flag 01 Jul 16 8.21pm

Originally posted by blackpalacefan

When we leave the EU we will be leaving the banking passporting system. We'd then be unable to trade with the whole of the EU from London, a huge and damaging change from currently being a world hub and the gateway into Europe. Things like this and the implications of the WTO situation will need to be figured out before we leave.

When negotiating a new deal I suspect that we'll either not get the freedom of movement changes we're looking for, or we will get them but in exchange for giving up our access to the passporting system, the EU will see that as an opportunity to move the banking hub to Frankfurt or somewhere else in the EU resulting in tens of billions lost and hundreds of thousands of jobs. Once we're out of the EU the deal we get is out of our control to a large extent. It's whatever us and 27 EU countries 'all' agree on. Until something is agreed we are at the greatest disadvantage by far. Even if we get our way on everything, much damage would be done in the years previous as by default we're WTO and lose the passporting system. The city depends on it and will be forced to move to areas with single market access hugely setting back our economy. All kinds of businesses other than that wil be impacted too by the WTO scenario and general fallout. If that is a fair exchange for people who want freedom of movement stopped then that's fine, but since nobody has even talked about the worrying WTO and passporting it really just seems that 99% of people both don't know exactly what they have voted for and the implications of it.

There is little chance of getting out of this without financially being seriously reduced as a nation and in turn our clout too. Our primary strength right now is that we haven't left. We should be wanting to stall on that for as long as possible because until we leave damage is spread more uniformly. That creates space for forcing the EUs hand into giving us certain reassurances being we do leave. It's one of our useful bargaining chips. If we leave now it will be a complete disaster. I wouldn't care if immigration was zero per year but it's how workable something is, the consequences of it and the best way of going about it. If we're worried about employment, wages and so on then this action is not about to make any of those situations better. We are in for a grim decade unless we can manage to salvage something out of a situation that people have been too busy cheering about to entertain the realities of.

Edited by blackpalacefan (01 Jul 2016 7.43pm)

Very well put bpf, the devil is in the detail for a number of sectors and i agree with you ....but the longer we put it off (i.e triggering article 50) the longer the uncertainty remains, and the markets dont like uncertainty....just today 1 year bond yields went negative for the first time in the uk's history, suggesting to me that the downturn maybe much more pronounced than they predicted in project fear

 

Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 01 Jul 16 9.14pm

Originally posted by Mapletree

Erudite, depressing and no doubt due to be classed as bed wetting. As most of this is self-evident I still hope the politicians in the end will say f*ck this, we are going to stand up for what is right for the country not what is politically expedient. Even if that means going against a majority decision. There is still a chance.

‘All my political career I’ve been driven by conviction not ambition, by a belief in doing what’s right not what’s expedient, by wanting to pull levers that make things better not steer to the sound of applause.’ (Michael Gove, Midday today)

 


COYP

Mapletree Flag Croydon 01 Jul 16 10.28pm

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

‘All my political career I’ve been driven by conviction not ambition, by a belief in doing what’s right not what’s expedient, by wanting to pull levers that make things better not steer to the sound of applause.’ (Michael Gove, Midday today)

I believe that. His convictions have been so wrong so often, that's the only problem.

 

Jimenez Flag SELHURSTPARKCHESTER,DA BRONX 01 Jul 16 10.31pm

Good work Gove....

 


Pro USA & Israel

blackpalacefan Flag 01 Jul 16 10.49pm

Theresa May has so much more support than anyone so it's a shoo-in.

I'm less concerned about who leads and more about the growing number of businesses big and small that are already saying they're going to up sticks because they can't operate under WTO rules hampering trade with EU. That period will last for years and other than refusing to leave until we have reassurances I don't see how we navigate the problem.

The same applies to the bank 'passporting system' that would see UK financial institutions crippled overnight since we'd have opted out. We're a services and financial sector economy, it's 80% of our GDP. This is likely why we haven't enacted article 50 yet. I at least 'hope' they are seeking clarity on these issues, but the way things go nothing would surprise me. Time proves everything.

Edited by blackpalacefan (01 Jul 2016 11.27pm)

 

SloveniaDave Flag Tirana, Albania 01 Jul 16 11.26pm

It's starting to look a little more hopeful that no party or party leader would be stupid enough to initiate the Article 50 process.

It is also looking a little more likely that Parliament will assert, quite rightly, its sovereignty and block Brexit.

There are many lessons to learn from the referendum and politicians should take note about the dissatisfaction it expressed, but any sensible representative democracy should not simply count heads.

I hope common sense will ultimately prevail and we will remain within the EU, but with a much stronger negotiating position which we need to push through more fundamental reforms.

We should then start to address the issues which the referendum raised at a domestic level, rather than blame others for them.

 


Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand!

My opinions may have changed, but not the fact that I am right.

(Member of the School of Optimism 1969-2016 inclusive)

chris123 Flag hove actually 01 Jul 16 11.32pm

Originally posted by SloveniaDave

It's starting to look a little more hopeful that no party or party leader would be stupid enough to initiate the Article 50 process.

It is also looking a little more likely that Parliament will assert, quite rightly, its sovereignty and block Brexit.

There are many lessons to learn from the referendum and politicians should take note about the dissatisfaction it expressed, but any sensible representative democracy should not simply count heads.

I hope common sense will ultimately prevail and we will remain within the EU, but with a much stronger negotiating position which we need to push through more fundamental reforms.

We should then start to address the issues which the referendum raised at a domestic level, rather than blame others for them.

No chance - in my humble.

 

blackpalacefan Flag 01 Jul 16 11.35pm

Originally posted by SloveniaDave

It's starting to look a little more hopeful that no party or party leader would be stupid enough to initiate the Article 50 process.

It is also looking a little more likely that Parliament will assert, quite rightly, its sovereignty and block Brexit.

There are many lessons to learn from the referendum and politicians should take note about the dissatisfaction it expressed, but any sensible representative democracy should not simply count heads.

I hope common sense will ultimately prevail and we will remain within the EU, but with a much stronger negotiating position which we need to push through more fundamental reforms.

We should then start to address the issues which the referendum raised at a domestic level, rather than blame others for them.

Financially it would've been more sensible for a government to ignore freedom of movement and pay whatever fines came our way. They would be a lot less devastating than what ay well come to us through brexit. Of course that didn't happen though as our governments love imigration and just blame the EU for something they were perfectly happy with anyway. You can see that in non EU immigration too, which has gone up year on year despite us having complete control over it.

 

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