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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)


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Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards Hrolf The Ganger Flag 11 Jul 16 12.19pm

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

People like me resented the referendum but saw it as a way of shutting up the right of the party for good and pushing UKIP into the long grass. A combination of events caused the disaster. It is not what the majority really want, of that I am totally convinced. The vote on the day was lost. That is accepted. The battle to save the country has only just begun. Politics doesn't end just because of a referendum vote. Your opponents are entitled to argue and they will. New governments can acquire new mandates. "Project fear" was yet another leave lie. The fear was real. They were warnings which have all been shown subsequently to be true. If those warnings, given by people whose jobs depend on actually understanding these things, have proved true so far then why on earth should their predictions for the longer term be wrong? They are not and those who continue to use hope as their argument are simply in denial.

You really are living in a delusion created by your own arrogance.

Firstly the idea of pushing the opinions of a significant part of the population "into the long grass" really does display your contempt for others who don't share your blinkered view.
You still can't see that the projections of disaster post Brexit put forward by the Remain campaign were just that. There is and always was no certainty to any of them.
I suspect that some people like yourself actually want the country to go down the pan just so You can say I told you so.

Don't hold your breath.

 

leifandersonshair Flag Newport 11 Jul 16 12.53pm

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

You really are living in a delusion created by your own arrogance.

Firstly the idea of pushing the opinions of a significant part of the population "into the long grass" really does display your contempt for others who don't share your blinkered view.
You still can't see that the projections of disaster post Brexit put forward by the Remain campaign were just that. There is and always was no certainty to any of them.
I suspect that some people like yourself actually want the country to go down the pan just so You can say I told you so.

Don't hold your breath.

Proving rather accurate so far though, aren't they? Sterling at the lowest in 30 years, and more unstable than Bitcoin.

I don't think anyone wants the UK to fail- in or out of Europe. But I think you'll understand a certain amount of annoyance that all those experts, who were so blithely dismissed by the Leave camp? So far, they are proving spot on.

 

Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards Hrolf The Ganger Flag 11 Jul 16 12.59pm

Originally posted by leifandersonshair

Proving rather accurate so far though, aren't they? Sterling at the lowest in 30 years, and more unstable than Bitcoin.

I don't think anyone wants the UK to fail- in or out of Europe. But I think you'll understand a certain amount of annoyance that all those experts, who were so blithely dismissed by the Leave camp? So far, they are proving spot on.

We are a couple of weeks past the Referendum and uncertainty and pant wetting always causes instability in the markets.
This is very early days and no one expected anything else. Particularly with so many fear mongers still banging on.

 

OknotOK Flag Cockfosters, London 11 Jul 16 1.04pm

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

We are a couple of weeks past the Referendum and uncertainty and pant wetting always causes instability in the markets.
This is very early days and no one expected anything else. Particularly with so many fear mongers still banging on.

Fair assessment. It is much too early to make any real claims about what the impact will be. Indeed almost every Brexit campaigner admitted there would be at least short term economic pain, so it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone on either side.

In fact most Brexit economists (baring the largely discredited Minford) admitted that there is likely to be at least a small long term hit to the economy, but that the decision was about other things.

 


"It's almost like a moral decision. Except not really cos noone is going to find out," Jez, Peep Show

crystal balls Flag The Garden of Earthly Delights 11 Jul 16 1.07pm

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

You really are living in a delusion created by your own arrogance.

Firstly the idea of pushing the opinions of a significant part of the population "into the long grass" really does display your contempt for others who don't share your blinkered view.
You still can't see that the projections of disaster post Brexit put forward by the Remain campaign were just that. There is and always was no certainty to any of them.
I suspect that some people like yourself actually want the country to go down the pan just so You can say I told you so.

Don't hold your breath.

Really? Moody's have cut growth forecasts for the UK economy from 1.8% to 1.5% this year and from 2.1% to 1.2% for 2017. They also say that trade deal negotiations could take up to 10 years, the EU are unlikely to entertain significant trade concessions without the free movement of people and substantial contributions to the EU budget.

"Restrictions on trade in financial services is a serious downside risk to the UK, as financial services make up 8% of the economy in gross value terms. A decline in this sector will undoubtedly spill across the economy".

Pensions funds will have been massively hit by falls in long term gilt prices to unprecedented low levels. This will increase pension fund deficits to unmanageable levels, and as these schemes are guaranteed by the government, any schemes unable to fulfill their obligations will need to be bailed out by the taxpayer.

Commercial property funds have been suspended by most major fund managers, meaning they have shut to investors wishing to withdraw their money as a direct result of the referendum. This was last seen just prior to the banking crisis in 2006-07.

Seems fairly certain to me, and many commentators have said this is just the start.

 


I used to be immortal

Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards Hrolf The Ganger Flag 11 Jul 16 1.13pm

Originally posted by crystal balls

Really? Moody's have cut growth forecasts for the UK economy from 1.8% to 1.5% this year and from 2.1% to 1.2% for 2017. They also say that trade deal negotiations could take up to 10 years, the EU are unlikely to entertain significant trade concessions without the free movement of people and substantial contributions to the EU budget.

"Restrictions on trade in financial services is a serious downside risk to the UK, as financial services make up 8% of the economy in gross value terms. A decline in this sector will undoubtedly spill across the economy".

Pensions funds will have been massively hit by falls in long term gilt prices to unprecedented low levels. This will increase pension fund deficits to unmanageable levels, and as these schemes are guaranteed by the government, any schemes unable to fulfill their obligations will need to be bailed out by the taxpayer.

Commercial property funds have been suspended by most major fund managers, meaning they have shut to investors wishing to withdraw their money as a direct result of the referendum. This was last seen just prior to the banking crisis in 2006-07.

Seems fairly certain to me, and many commentators have said this is just the start.

If your entire decision making process was based on pure economics then you probably voted Remain.
Many who voted Leave had other considerations.

 

Mapletree Flag Croydon 11 Jul 16 1.16pm

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

If your entire decision making process was based on pure economics then you probably voted Remain.
Many who voted Leave had other considerations.

Blimey, I can agree with you on something.

The big question then becomes how much of a hit on the economy is worth it for the other considerations.

 

crystal balls Flag The Garden of Earthly Delights 11 Jul 16 1.17pm

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

If your entire decision making process was based on pure economics then you probably voted Remain.
Many who voted Leave had other considerations.

Of course, but quite e few of the exit-ers claimed we would be better off economically going off on our own, which we clearly won't. If they said that realistically we will be worse off financially, but I believe that's a price worth paying, then fair enough. But they didn't.

 


I used to be immortal

Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards Hrolf The Ganger Flag 11 Jul 16 1.21pm

Originally posted by Mapletree

Blimey, I can agree with you on something.

The big question then becomes how much of a hit on the economy is worth it for the other considerations.

Hopefully, when you vote on such a big decision, you do so believing you are doing the right thing in the long term. I still believe that I have.

 

Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards Hrolf The Ganger Flag 11 Jul 16 1.29pm

Originally posted by crystal balls

Of course, but quite e few of the exit-ers claimed we would be better off economically going off on our own, which we clearly won't. If they said that realistically we will be worse off financially, but I believe that's a price worth paying, then fair enough. But they didn't.

We are still in the short term. I believe that long term we will be better off.
With regard to specific financial projections. There has never been a time when one could accurately predict the future since there are many factors that could influence conditions. To claim with certainty that will be worse off long term is little better than a guess.
When we come to terms with Brexit and adapt to the new situation, we will be better equipped to see a little further ahead.

 

Wisbech Eagle Flag Truro Cornwall 11 Jul 16 1.42pm

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

Hopefully, when you vote on such a big decision, you do so believing you are doing the right thing in the long term. I still believe that I have.

Maybe you are but it is quite clearly a triumph of hope over experience. Relying on nostalgia and hope, and without any clear plan, is no way to run a country. Now all the senior officers have abandoned the ship, so that they don't get covered in the s*** of disappointment when it hits the fan, and the realisation that what was promised were unachievable lies becomes obvious to everyone, even the most stubborn.

UKIP will become a party of ridicule, and that has already started with a strong distancing being made by the Tories. They deserve being kicked into the long grass because they carry a big responsibility for all of this.

I forecast that it will not be long before we see posters in cars which say "Don't blame me, I voted in!"

This has nothing at all with anyone not wanting to "make it work" and defeatism. It has everything to do with recognising mistakes and being prepared to deal with them.

 


For the avoidance of doubt any comments in response to a previous post are directed to its ideas and not at any, or all, posters personally.

crystal balls Flag The Garden of Earthly Delights 11 Jul 16 1.54pm

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

We are still in the short term. I believe that long term we will be better off.
With regard to specific financial projections. There has never been a time when one could accurately predict the future since there are many factors that could influence conditions. To claim with certainty that will be worse off long term is little better than a guess.
When we come to terms with Brexit and adapt to the new situation, we will be better equipped to see a little further ahead.

By your own definition, your belief in the long term benefit is nothing other than a "guess" as well!

My "guess" is that when the exit is shown to have been only to the detriment of the UK it will be passed of a being due to some other factor, such as the slowdown in China or somesuch.

BTW, long term is likely to mean 10 years plus; we are unlikely to have all the downside of exit for at least 5 years or more.

 


I used to be immortal

JohnyBoy Flag 11 Jul 16 2.00pm

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

Maybe you are but it is quite clearly a triumph of hope over experience. Relying on nostalgia and hope, and without any clear plan, is no way to run a country. Now all the senior officers have abandoned the ship, so that they don't get covered in the s*** of disappointment when it hits the fan, and the realisation that what was promised were unachievable lies becomes obvious to everyone, even the most stubborn.

UKIP will become a party of ridicule, and that has already started with a strong distancing being made by the Tories. They deserve being kicked into the long grass because they carry a big responsibility for all of this.

I forecast that it will not be long before we see posters in cars which say "Don't blame me, I voted in!"

This has nothing at all with anyone not wanting to "make it work" and defeatism. It has everything to do with recognising mistakes and being prepared to deal with them.

A very wise post Maple, there is no point in the 'i told you so' debate, we must just get on and do our best. But for those who say we should say nothing and clap along to the fiddles playing when Rome is burning...'this is how democracy works', leave won the referendum so expect some angry and vociferous opposition because every negative impact on jobs, distressed households, police numbers, nhs etc etc that is genuinely due to the Brexit vote should be accountable to those who made the decision....and if they dont like being blamed, well thats really just tough sh!t, but hopefully we will all learn a painful but valuable lesson

 

Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards Hrolf The Ganger Flag 11 Jul 16 2.04pm

Originally posted by Wisbech Eagle

Maybe you are but it is quite clearly a triumph of hope over experience. Relying on nostalgia and hope, and without any clear plan, is no way to run a country. Now all the senior officers have abandoned the ship, so that they don't get covered in the s*** of disappointment when it hits the fan, and the realisation that what was promised were unachievable lies becomes obvious to everyone, even the most stubborn.

UKIP will become a party of ridicule, and that has already started with a strong distancing being made by the Tories. They deserve being kicked into the long grass because they carry a big responsibility for all of this.

I forecast that it will not be long before we see posters in cars which say "Don't blame me, I voted in!"

This has nothing at all with anyone not wanting to "make it work" and defeatism. It has everything to do with recognising mistakes and being prepared to deal with them.

What experience? It has never happened before.

You simply want to dismiss the concerns of the majority of the population because of your own arrogance. That is exactly the attitude that caused Brexit in the first place. You my dear boy, have learned nothing from that.

Now I'm already bored with Remainers and their self righteous protestations. The sooner you get with the new program and stop whining, the better off we will all be.

 

Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards Hrolf The Ganger Flag 11 Jul 16 2.12pm

Originally posted by crystal balls


By your own definition, your belief in the long term benefit is nothing other than a "guess" as well!

My "guess" is that when the exit is shown to have been only to the detriment of the UK it will be passed of a being due to some other factor, such as the slowdown in China or somesuch.

BTW, long term is likely to mean 10 years plus; we are unlikely to have all the downside of exit for at least 5 years or more.

If economics is the only consideration.

What I do know is that some people will want to appear to be "right" what ever happens and will spin the facts to make it appear that way.
Right now all the self righteousness seems to be coming, prematurely, from the Remain camp.

Time to move on.

 

crystal balls Flag The Garden of Earthly Delights 11 Jul 16 2.29pm

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

If economics is the only consideration.

What I do know is that some people will want to appear to be "right" what ever happens and will spin the facts to make it appear that way.
Right now all the self righteousness seems to be coming, prematurely, from the Remain camp.

Time to move on.

Hardly self-righteousness though, is it? No-one seems to be claiming any superiority, simply pointing out that some of the predicted outcomes are coming to pass, and that leaving is not the panacea that some exit-ers seemed to believe.

 


I used to be immortal

Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards Hrolf The Ganger Flag 11 Jul 16 3.14pm

Originally posted by crystal balls

Hardly self-righteousness though, is it? No-one seems to be claiming any superiority, simply pointing out that some of the predicted outcomes are coming to pass, and that leaving is not the panacea that some exit-ers seemed to believe.

I don't know anyone on the Brexit side who though that leaving would produce an instant Garden of Eden.

What I do see is a load of know alls seizing a chance to say I told you so before the ink on the ballot papers has barely dried.
Then of course we will see various political interests spinning everything to suit their agendas.

 

nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 11 Jul 16 3.56pm

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

What experience? It has never happened before.

You simply want to dismiss the concerns of the majority of the population because of your own arrogance. That is exactly the attitude that caused Brexit in the first place. You my dear boy, have learned nothing from that.

Now I'm already bored with Remainers and their self righteous protestations. The sooner you get with the new program and stop whining, the better off we will all be.

I'm not sure what the new program you mention is, does anyone? How can we get with the program if no-one has told us what it is - or have they not worked it out yet?

I voted remain but even so have been waiting with baited breath for the exit to start. Personally I'm looking forward to better laws for workers, the tearing up of competition legislation that will allow the state to control services rather than them being forced to sell them off to the best (more likely foreign) bidder and duty free.

 

crystal balls Flag The Garden of Earthly Delights 11 Jul 16 5.06pm

Originally posted by Hrolf The Ganger

I don't know anyone on the Brexit side who though that leaving would produce an instant Garden of Eden.

What I do see is a load of know alls seizing a chance to say I told you so before the ink on the ballot papers has barely dried.
Then of course we will see various political interests spinning everything to suit their agendas.

Well I seem to recall quite a number of exit-ers claiming that the UK would "get their country back" and now it seems that free movement will be essential to any trade deal.

Unfortunately, the problems caused by exit are just beginning, I fear; I'm not a know all by any means, but it does seem that the experts that Farage claimed we had had enough of, may have had a point after all!

 


I used to be immortal

Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards Hrolf The Ganger Flag 11 Jul 16 5.10pm

Originally posted by crystal balls

Well I seem to recall quite a number of exit-ers claiming that the UK would "get their country back" and now it seems that free movement will be essential to any trade deal.

Unfortunately, the problems caused by exit are just beginning, I fear; I'm not a know all by any means, but it does seem that the experts that Farage claimed we had had enough of, may have had a point after all!

f*** me, we haven't even started negotiations yet.

Give it a rest.

 

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