This page is no longer updated, and is the old forum. For new topics visit the New HOL forum.
The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)
Visit the current forum | Forum Rules
jamiemartin721  Reading 13 Jul 16 1.17pm |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by Mapletree
It's good to see you have the depth of pockets to take the hit then Jamie. Not really, I just don't equate right with fiscal values. I wouldn't vote for something just because it made me better or worse off.
"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug" |
|
 crystal balls The Garden of Earthly Delights 13 Jul 16 1.19pm |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by Lyons550
The only people that could and DID plan was the BoE...hence the banking system being more than robust enough to cope with the ripples the outcome has and will continue to cause. The Tier 1 capital raised by our banks was in fact raised to deal with far worse scenarios then created by Brexit...but then Brexit isn't an economic crisis...unlike 2008 and as such it'll all settle down once we know the details of the withdrawal under Article 50. The problem is the uncertainty before the details of the withdrawal and the terms of the trade deals which will be struck after the two year period following Article 50. This could well take 5 years or more to conclude, by which time the economy may have grown by 5-10% less than if exit hadn't happened (see lowered growth forecasts from ratings agencies). As such, it will become an economic crisis, and we'll all be financially worse off, only by how much is in dispute
I used to be immortal |
|
| jamiemartin721 Reading 13 Jul 16 1.30pm |
|
|---|---|
|
Who'd have thought that tying the economy to a system based on 'gut feeling insticts' of wealth junkies, could possibly be a problem...
"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug" |
|
| Lyons550 Shirley 13 Jul 16 1.44pm |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by jamiemartin721
Of course settle down, doesn't necessarily mean in a positive way to some people. Although it'll be stable, doesn't mean it will be what people want. Just what it is. I don't expect the UK to economically be as strong as it was out of the EU, that seems a bit absurd, given the size and power of the EU trading block. But surrendering some of our economic power, to obtain greater power to control over our economic future, even if its inferior, seems like a fair exchange. Others would disagree suggesting the Size and Power of the EU trading block has just diminished through our withdrawal....and yet the rest of the world has just come that much closer as a result of us removing the EU shackles....swings and roundabouts...just like life...we just need to all get on with it
The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World |
|
| Lyons550 Shirley 13 Jul 16 1.51pm |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by crystal balls
The problem is the uncertainty before the details of the withdrawal and the terms of the trade deals which will be struck after the two year period following Article 50. This could well take 5 years or more to conclude, by which time the economy may have grown by 5-10% less than if exit hadn't happened (see lowered growth forecasts from ratings agencies). As such, it will become an economic crisis, and we'll all be financially worse off, only by how much is in dispute Hyperbole....just when does a cyclical downturn (as always happens whatever the reason) become a crisis??? Some people are never happier then having their heads in their hands lurching from one 'crisis' to another...always looking back over their shoulders...an economic 'crisis' would be if unemployment rose to the level of the 70's; people couldn't afford to put food on the table and kids weren't able to go to school and get an education due to lack of funding* It seems a lot of peoples definition of 'crisis' revolves around their ability to retain phones, cars and social media. It's simply 'change' that people don't like ....not the effects of change which most if not all of us can mitigate provided you 'accept' change for what it is...an opportunity to re-focus and something to embrace. *clearly there'll be the usual trite comment about this already happening...but you know exactly that I mean on a vast scale as opposed to current levels
The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World |
|
| jamiemartin721 Reading 14 Jul 16 3.28pm |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by Lyons550
Others would disagree suggesting the Size and Power of the EU trading block has just diminished through our withdrawal....and yet the rest of the world has just come that much closer as a result of us removing the EU shackles....swings and roundabouts...just like life...we just need to all get on with it Yeah, but I generally think people put too much stock in the idea that they can have something for nothing, and the idea that there are no true consequences. Its the kind of pie in the sky b*lls*** that's peddled by popularist's - of course there is a chance that could be the case, but realistically, I think its pretty unlikely. The UK's capacity to negotiate trade would I'd imagine be weaker outside of the EU, than as part of it, simply because it has to negotiate from a smaller point of leverage. Obviously, we can still trade and will still trade, and probably on decent enough terms, but we won't be able to leverage the influence of our trade partners to our favour, and we will be in competition with those ex-partners now. Usually when there are more suppliers towards a demand, both suppliers lose out.
"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug" |
|
| jamiemartin721 Reading 14 Jul 16 3.32pm |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by Lyons550
Hyperbole....just when does a cyclical downturn (as always happens whatever the reason) become a crisis??? Some people are never happier then having their heads in their hands lurching from one 'crisis' to another...always looking back over their shoulders...an economic 'crisis' would be if unemployment rose to the level of the 70's; people couldn't afford to put food on the table and kids weren't able to go to school and get an education due to lack of funding* It seems a lot of peoples definition of 'crisis' revolves around their ability to retain phones, cars and social media. It's simply 'change' that people don't like ....not the effects of change which most if not all of us can mitigate provided you 'accept' change for what it is...an opportunity to re-focus and something to embrace.
Crisis come and crisis go, every five or ten years or so the UK lurches into a crisis, and then people pay little attention to recovery, until the next crisis comes along. A crisis is interesting, exciting. Brexit, whether you like it or not, has at least been far more interesting than a remain vote ever would have been. The sky hasn't fallen, the world hasn't ended and for the most part, we'll all live through it, and come out the other side, anticipating the next crisis. Change is always more 'fun' than stability.
"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug" |
|
Kermit8  Hevon 15 Jul 16 11.06am |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by Rudi Hedman
Can anyone clarify exactly when Britain can start negotiating trade deals? I know that the EU are unhappy that there's hints we're about to start talking to countries outside the EU. I think we should, and I think we will, ignore them and carry on. But with regard to the EU... Do all negotiations regarding future trading agreements and relationships with the EU and/or individual countries have to start after leaving and not during article 50? This is what I've read on a pro-EU blog. I thought this wasn't so. Aren't we allowed to negotiate as soon as article 50 is invoked but some bigger countries are a bit impatient and want to talk asap? With regards to the legal position? When this position of negotiations beginning immediately after invoking article 50 was put forward by an EU spokeswoman it was ridiculed as not being allowed by EU constitution lawyers until the UK has actually left. Is this true in a legal sense? If it is, will it be ignored by all 27 and the UK? I could be wrong but I believe because we are still EU members for two years after 50 is triggered then we still have to behave as such. Not allowed to do stuff independently with already existing EU trade routes that include us 'til then. Seems fair enough from their point of view. This really is the kind of stuff Brexiteers should have known months ago. No doubt some backdoor action will be going on within those two years though especially from the public-schoolboy educated cabinet ministers. Edited by Kermit8 (15 Jul 2016 11.07am)
Big chest and massive boobs |
|
| Rudi Hedman Caterham 15 Jul 16 11.45am |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by Kermit8
I could be wrong but I believe because we are still EU members for two years after 50 is triggered then we still have to behave as such. Not allowed to do stuff independently with already existing EU trade routes that include us 'til then. Seems fair enough from their point of view. This really is the kind of stuff Brexiteers should have known months ago. No doubt some backdoor action will be going on within those two years though especially from the public-schoolboy educated cabinet ministers. Edited by Kermit8 (15 Jul 2016 11.07am) Hmmm, yeah. For days after the referendum there was talk of when to invoke article 50 and begin negotiating immediately. Will the larger members want to delay talks if there's a drop in UK consumer spending and importing of their goods?
COYP |
|
 Cucking Funt Clapham on the Back 15 Jul 16 1.57pm |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by Kermit8
5 or 6 months til 50 is triggered at least. It's all looking like one almighty mess in the making that has to be tidied up before we can look ahead. We don't have any trade negotiators ffs. Border control is 'non-negotiable' says Davis. Hmmmm...so how are we going to get access to the EU market a la Norway? What's the rush? Just because the referendum delivered a 'leave' verdict doesn't mean we should plunge straight into it without establishing the mechanics first. What's your hurry, baby?
|
|
| becky over the moon 15 Jul 16 2.11pm |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by Kermit8
I could be wrong but I believe because we are still EU members for two years after 50 is triggered then we still have to behave as such. Not allowed to do stuff independently with already existing EU trade routes that include us 'til then. Seems fair enough from their point of view. This really is the kind of stuff Brexiteers should have known months ago. No doubt some backdoor action will be going on within those two years though especially from the public-schoolboy educated cabinet ministers.
A stairway to Heaven and a Highway to Hell give some indication of expected traffic numbers |
|
| susmik PLYMOUTH -But Made in Old Coulsdon... 15 Jul 16 2.53pm |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by becky
With you on that one becky !!
Supported Palace for over 69 years since the age of 7 and have seen all the ups and downs and will probably see many more ups and downs before I go up to the big football club in the sky. |
|
| Lyons550 Shirley 15 Jul 16 3.10pm |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by becky
Exactly...made me laugh when they denied us access to ongoing meetings...they cant have it both ways...starting tentative negotiations now with potential trade partners is simply being pragmatic...could you imagine us not being able to even negotiate trade deals until the EU have shut the door behind us...it may be what they're hoping...but its yet antother bargaining tool for us...the quicker we're allowed to start the quicker we're in a position to envoke Article 50
The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World |
|
| blackpalacefan 17 Jul 16 1.55pm |
|
|---|---|
|
UK offered Brexit free trade deal with Australia [Link] Sounds promising
|
|
| blackpalacefan 22 Jul 16 6.46pm |
|
|---|---|
|
"The Spanish Government will veto the terms of any Brexit negotiation between the UK and the EU that sought to include Gibraltar, Spain’s acting Foreign Minister José Manuel García-Margallo said yesterday. The minister said once the UK activates the withdrawal process under Article 50 of the EU treaty, the European Council must agree the broad terms of the withdrawal negotiation “by unanimity”. Against that context, Spain would “make clear that Gibraltar does not belong to the UK” and would “have the right to veto” if it did not agree with the negotiation framework, Sr García-Margallo said." - [Link]
|
|
| Stuk Top half 22 Jul 16 8.40pm |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by Cucking Funt
As long as the Spaniards hold on to Cueta and others, they can f*ck off with their bitching about Gibraltar. W@nkers. Yeah, Melilla. Farking hypocrites.
Optimistic as ever |
|
Ouzo Dan  Behind you 22 Jul 16 8.53pm |
|
|---|---|
|
Originally posted by blackpalacefan
UK offered Brexit free trade deal with Australia [Link] Sounds promising There will be plenty of free trade deals to be had, its in the interest of the EU to negotiate for the same. Quick of the cuff Question How would people feel about freedom of movement among the stronger commonwealth nations? Personally I would emigrate to Canada in a heart beat.
The mountains are calling & I must go. |
|
All images and text on this site are copyright © 1999-2025 The Holmesdale Online, unless otherwise stated.
Web Design by Guntrisoft Ltd.