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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)


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Part Time James Flag 03 Oct 16 12.25pm

Originally posted by Hoof Hearted

This is so true.

Looking back I've posted some stuff better suited to the playground, but I'm sure I'm not alone or the worst!

Maybe it should be renamed the bickering thread?

I wasn't singling out a specific person or trying to take any moral high ground. Just seems like a lot of hyperbole and conjecture about a pretty uncertain subject.

I mean, the one thing I think we do know for sure is that we don't know for sure what the future holds.

But it hasn't stopped some decent people, usually allied by their love of the same football team, falling out with each other on a primarily football based forum.

 
matt_himself Flag Matataland 04 Oct 16 4.56pm

IMF states that Britain will be the fastest growing major economy this year:

[Link]

 

"That was fun and to round off the day, I am off to steal a charity collection box and then desecrate a place of worship.” - Smokey, The Selhurst Arms, 26/02/02
Kermit8 Flag Hevon 04 Oct 16 5.08pm

Originally posted by matt_himself

IMF states that Britain will be the fastest growing major economy this year:

[Link]

Terrific news...if this were post-Brexit and the year 2021 or 2022.

But it isn't:

" The Washington-based IMF said Britain would comfortably avoid recession with growth of 1.8% in 2016, but it stuck to its view that the economy would eventually suffer from the shock EU referendum result and said expansion next year would be just 1.1% – lower than it expected in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote."

" The WEO has also cautioned that economic data since the referendum had been limited and said the fall in sterling would prompt inflation to rise from 0.7% this year to 2.5% in 2017.

“In the United Kingdom, slower growth is expected since the referendum as uncertainty in the aftermath of the Brexit vote weighs on firms’ investment and hiring decisions and consumers’ purchases of durable goods and housing. Growth is forecast at 1.8% in 2016 and 1.1% in 2017, based on the assumptions of smooth post-Brexit negotiations and a limited increase in economic barriers.”

The IMF also cut its medium-term growth forecast for the UK from 2.1% to 1.9% as a result of what it assumes will be barriers to trade, migration and capital flows."

Larry Elliott - Economics Editor Guardian

 

Big chest and massive boobs

[Link]
jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 04 Oct 16 5.28pm

Originally posted by matt_himself

IMF states that Britain will be the fastest growing major economy this year:

[Link]

Excellent provided that's not on the basis of the others being more f**ked...

 

"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug"
[Link]
carlonoil Flag Naples 04 Oct 16 5.39pm

Of course the left will blame any negativities and blips in the economy on Brexit. They will also continue to predict dire consequences in the face of any evidence to the opposite. It is merely a continuation of them blaming all of the world's problems on the USA, Israel, the UK and most western democracies, and of course capitalism. Their fixed world view is a similar mindset to the likes of the Jehovahs Witnesses.

 
Kermit8 Flag Hevon 04 Oct 16 5.45pm

Originally posted by carlonoil

Of course the left will blame any negativities and blips in the economy on Brexit. They will also continue to predict dire consequences in the face of any evidence to the opposite. It is merely a continuation of them blaming all of the world's problems on the USA, Israel, the UK and most western democracies, and of course capitalism. Their fixed world view is a similar mindset to the likes of the Jehovahs Witnesses.

Not all economists are lefties Del..Carlo...and not all economists voted Brexit. Those who voted Remain and are not left will still have to come up with reasons for any 'blips'.

 

Big chest and massive boobs

[Link]
Cucking Funt Flag Clapham on the Back 04 Oct 16 6.25pm

Originally posted by carlonoil

Of course the left will blame any negativities and blips in the economy on Brexit. They will also continue to predict dire consequences in the face of any evidence to the opposite. It is merely a continuation of them blaming all of the world's problems on the USA, Israel, the UK and most western democracies, and of course capitalism. Their fixed world view is a similar mindset to the likes of the Jehovahs Witnesses.

You don't give up, do you?

 

Wife beating may be socially acceptable in Sheffield, but it is a different matter in Cheltenham
steeleye20 Flag Croydon 04 Oct 16 6.34pm

He's been at the olive oil again you,re not supposed to drink it.

 
matt_himself Flag Matataland 04 Oct 16 7.22pm

Originally posted by Kermit8

Terrific news...if this were post-Brexit and the year 2021 or 2022.

But it isn't:

" The Washington-based IMF said Britain would comfortably avoid recession with growth of 1.8% in 2016, but it stuck to its view that the economy would eventually suffer from the shock EU referendum result and said expansion next year would be just 1.1% – lower than it expected in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote."

" The WEO has also cautioned that economic data since the referendum had been limited and said the fall in sterling would prompt inflation to rise from 0.7% this year to 2.5% in 2017.

“In the United Kingdom, slower growth is expected since the referendum as uncertainty in the aftermath of the Brexit vote weighs on firms’ investment and hiring decisions and consumers’ purchases of durable goods and housing. Growth is forecast at 1.8% in 2016 and 1.1% in 2017, based on the assumptions of smooth post-Brexit negotiations and a limited increase in economic barriers.”

The IMF also cut its medium-term growth forecast for the UK from 2.1% to 1.9% as a result of what it assumes will be barriers to trade, migration and capital flows."

Larry Elliott - Economics Editor Guardian

We were told by Remain that immediately after a 'Leave' vote, Britain would suffer capital flight, the exodus of business and be plunged into a crippling recession.

Nothing much has changed.

We are being told by remainers that as soon as Brexit is completed, we will suffer capital flight, the exodus of business and be plunged into a crippling recession.

What's the bets nothing much changes with our economy then?

 

"That was fun and to round off the day, I am off to steal a charity collection box and then desecrate a place of worship.” - Smokey, The Selhurst Arms, 26/02/02
steeleye20 Flag Croydon 05 Oct 16 5.02pm

'assumptions of smooth post-Brexit negotiations' what a thing to base a forecast on!

Still it is the IMF.

 
nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 11 Oct 16 6.47pm

[Link]


Which EU law are you looking forward to losing?

Straight bananas!

 
Kermit8 Flag Hevon 12 Oct 16 7.14am

Oh look....

"A leading light in the Brexit campaign said they now expected the UK could still end up paying as much as £5bn a year into EU funds, in return for access to the single market.
This is roughly half of what the UK would have expected to contribute to the EU - estimated by the Office for Budget Responsibility to average around £9.6bn a year from 2015.
A senior official has described the prospect of continuing UK contributions to the EU as the "dog that hasn't barked" after Prime Minister Theresa May made no reference to the issue when she set out her red lines for her forthcoming EU negotiations last week."

BBC

Sorry NHS

 

Big chest and massive boobs

[Link]
chris123 Flag hove actually 12 Oct 16 7.28am

Originally posted by Kermit8

Oh look....

"A leading light in the Brexit campaign said they now expected the UK could still end up paying as much as £5bn a year into EU funds, in return for access to the single market.
This is roughly half of what the UK would have expected to contribute to the EU - estimated by the Office for Budget Responsibility to average around £9.6bn a year from 2015.
A senior official has described the prospect of continuing UK contributions to the EU as the "dog that hasn't barked" after Prime Minister Theresa May made no reference to the issue when she set out her red lines for her forthcoming EU negotiations last week."

BBC

Sorry NHS

I can't see any reason for this to happen - we'll continue to trade freely with Europe, without the unrestricted free movement.

 
Hoof Hearted 12 Oct 16 9.47am

Originally posted by Kermit8

Oh look....

"A leading light in the Brexit campaign said they now expected the UK could still end up paying as much as £5bn a year into EU funds, in return for access to the single market.
This is roughly half of what the UK would have expected to contribute to the EU - estimated by the Office for Budget Responsibility to average around £9.6bn a year from 2015.
A senior official has described the prospect of continuing UK contributions to the EU as the "dog that hasn't barked" after Prime Minister Theresa May made no reference to the issue when she set out her red lines for her forthcoming EU negotiations last week."

BBC

Sorry NHS

I agree with Chris123's comment.

Where did you get this "quote" from Kermit?

You haven't provided a link?

 
nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 12 Oct 16 9.55am

Originally posted by Hoof Hearted

I agree with Chris123's comment.

Where did you get this "quote" from Kermit?

You haven't provided a link?

[Link]

 
Hoof Hearted 12 Oct 16 10.11am

Originally posted by nickgusset

[Link]

I asked Kermit.... I don't trust or open your links as you know full well.

 
nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 12 Oct 16 10.55am

Originally posted by Hoof Hearted

I asked Kermit.... I don't trust or open your links as you know full well.

Copy the text kermit posted into Google. It will bring up the article.
Not hard..

 
JohnyBoy Flag 12 Oct 16 11.16am

Originally posted by Hoof Hearted

I agree with Chris123's comment.

Where did you get this "quote" from Kermit?

You haven't provided a link?


Good day Hoof. This is front page on bbc and Bloomberg is also all over the story that theresa may has backed down on giving the commons a vote on brexit plans....thankfully
But as you have pointed out previously it is too early to say for certain how it will all unfold, and as yet any conclusions are based on anecdotes. But there are things slowly unravelling. As you will know being a finance professional there are lots of fnancial opportunities in disruption.
We know that invoking article 50 was intended to be the next day after the vote but has been delayed til march 17. This has helped any immediate slowdown, but the pound has plummeted to a 35 year low versus $. Equity markets are strong, buoyed by emergency intervention by the bofe (ir cuts and quant easing), rising oil and commodity prices and especially those stocks with large $earnings. But the ftse remains negative in $terms. If you held US equities in your pension you made 20% overnight almost entirely on the back of a plunging £. I suspect some smart brexiteers are really cleaning up and if they shorted sterling then they really are smiling.....even moreso if they were warded HOL poster of the year (i also cheered loudly at this one)
The bond markets are a different story. If your a pensioner; savings rates, yields etc are astoundingly low. 10 year uk gvt yield 1% so annuities and pension fund deficits are really struggling....really pensioners are the hardest hit.
My 2 week holiday in France cost me an extra £600 quid, plus my parents fly to ireland tomorrow and will likely get about 1.07 euros to the pound when they could have got closer to 1.35 the last time they went. Oil (traded in $) is pushing up pump prices -i pay about £1.16 and it seems set to rise.
Politically i would say i have never known such a mess. My missus voted tory and says she would never have voted for theresa as pm. I am not poliically alligned but am really struggling with the current government and opposition. The tories may have kept their pledge to hold a referendum but the also pledged to eliminate the deficit by 2020, to keep us in the single market and to maintain fiscal discipline - all of which have seemingly been abandoned.
Meanwhile anecodtally we hear that race hate crime has shot up, immigration is RISING, and firms will be asked to make lists of foreign workers.
The bbc story was leaked by a leave mp - this suggests to me that 5billion is an underestimation and could easily double, after all why should they give us a better deal than Norway when they allow freedom of movement. And therd will be no rebate so not only the Nhs but also deprived regions e.g. Cornwall can kiss their £600m goodbye.
Every single large bank i know has a unit looking at plans including relocation where required to deal with brexit. The big americans banks seem to be the most vocal about the loss of 'passporting' and we seem set to adopt WTO tariffs by 2019 while Liam Fox brags about new trade deals with the aussies although the eu will put a mfr clause in their negotiations with australia.
There is no sign of turkey being allowed in but i reckon its up to the other 27 nations now as we are giving up our veto. So a lot depends on how generous they are feeling towards us and it doesnt sound like they are going to be, but either way it sure doesnt sound like taking back control to me

 
steeleye20 Flag Croydon 14 Oct 16 4.11pm

Just to cheer us all up - anyone know if brexit goes thru what happens to the Europpean Arrest Warrant?

 
Cucking Funt Flag Clapham on the Back 14 Oct 16 6.43pm

Originally posted by steeleye20

Just to cheer us all up - anyone know if brexit goes thru what happens to the Europpean Arrest Warrant?

At a guess, I'd say the arrangements will remain unchanged.

 

Wife beating may be socially acceptable in Sheffield, but it is a different matter in Cheltenham
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