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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)


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steeleye20 Flag Croydon 07 Jan 17 12.34pm

Originally posted by matt_himself

I agree with you. I don't think too much will change, economically or socially. I also agree with your point on the 'harbinger of doom' economic predictions. However, I will say that employment growth is slowing and inflation will catch up with this year, possibly in the form of a rate increase, and he inflation will be as a result of Sterling decline following Brexit. However, again, we do have a remarkably resilient economy, comprising resilient companies and resilient consumers. Household debt is reduced from the highs of pre credit crash days. Although the sterling decline will affect inflation, it does make Britain attractive to do in business from abroad.

I believe we are heading for a Brexit which Remainers will label 'hard' and Leavers label 'soft'.

We will leave the EU but probably not the single market and with a fudge on so-called 'freedom of movement'. I believe it will be a hybrid Norway-Canada result, with some concessions made by both sides on some particular matters, such as freedom of movement and guaranteeing expat rights.

I do not believe that the process of leaving is that complicated. It's a question of political will. I also don't believe that the diplomatic service is necessarily the right vehicle to negotiate Brexit. The Ivan Rogers affair backs this up. Do we need to have a team smoothing matters with Cyrus, Malta and Latvia? Or do we form a position after initial political negotiations and form a deal? Neither side will want long, drawn out uncertainty for economic and political reasons.

Household debt is reduced from the highs of pre credit crash days.

Don't think that can be true - if only.

Household debt exceeded 1.5 trillion in November last for the first time ever (before the xmas credit card binge).


 

matt_himself Flag Matataland 07 Jan 17 12.39pm

Originally posted by steeleye20

Household debt is reduced from the highs of pre credit crash days.

Don't think that can be true - if only.

Household debt exceeded 1.5 trillion in November last for the first time ever (before the xmas credit card binge).

To clarify: Percentage of debt per household versus income.

 


"That was fun and to round off the day, I am off to steal a charity collection box and then desecrate a place of worship.” - Smokey, The Selhurst Arms, 26/02/02

steeleye20 Flag Croydon 07 Jan 17 12.48pm

Ok I'll tell that to the bailiff when he comes !!!!!


 

steeleye20 Flag Croydon 08 Jan 17 6.59pm

I think the PM has said that we can't leave the EU and still have 'bits' of the EU like the single market but we are sure to get a good trade deal with the EU with the single market.

That's not a muddle though.

It's clever you think how reasonable PM's are but then afterwards you think 'was that what he/she said?'

 

Stirlingsays Flag 08 Jan 17 7.39pm

Leaving the EU will probably be like analyzing the wisdom of the French revolution.

It's just too early to tell.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Y Ddraig Goch Flag In The Crowd 08 Jan 17 7.54pm

Originally posted by steeleye20

I think the PM has said that we can't leave the EU and still have 'bits' of the EU like the single market but we are sure to get a good trade deal with the EU with the single market.

That's not a muddle though.

It's clever you think how reasonable PM's are but then afterwards you think 'was that what he/she said?'

We have been part of Europe for 40 yrs. there's going to be lots of muddled, messed up, convoluted, whatever you want to call it approaches as we try and extracate ourselves.

Personally I don't want a running commentary. Nothing will get done if that happens. Politicians will spend too much time trying to get one up on each other. I would prefer to let them get on with it for now and present their proposal once completed.

 


the dignified don't even enter in the game

steeleye20 Flag Croydon 08 Jan 17 8.23pm

Originally posted by Y Ddraig Goch

We have been part of Europe for 40 yrs. there's going to be lots of muddled, messed up, convoluted, whatever you want to call it approaches as we try and extracate ourselves.

Personally I don't want a running commentary. Nothing will get done if that happens. Politicians will spend too much time trying to get one up on each other. I would prefer to let them get on with it for now and present their proposal once completed.

Don't trust them an inch scrutinise absolutely everything.

Presenting a proposal don't think its subject to a vote either.

You are naive.

 

legaleagle Flag 08 Jan 17 9.28pm

Originally posted by Y Ddraig Goch

Personally I don't want a running commentary.

......................................................

Ok but a meaningful comment by the commentator once during the whole 6 month match to date wouldn't go amiss,no?


Edited by legaleagle (08 Jan 2017 9.28pm)

 

steeleye20 Flag Croydon 09 Jan 17 10.54am

Free Movement;-

• Since 2004, European Union law has allowed governments to control movements of EU citizens as follows: allow EU citizens to freely circulate only for three months and then require them (should they want to stay longer) to show they are working (employed or self-employed), a registered student or have sufficient resources (pension, savings) to support themselves and comprehensive sickness insurance eg a valid European health insurance card enabling the NHS to claim back the cost of treatment or have private health insurance. The UK is one of the few governments that has not implemented this.

For six years, Theresa May was in charge of the Home Office responsible for immigration, yet did nothing to adopt these conditions. One wonders why not and why immigration was allowed to dominate the referendum and is still being paraded as a big problem. Yet another failure of our own government and the Home Office under Theresa May is being blamed on the EU. The remedy was always in the UK’s hands.

Found at the Guardian site today

There are a couple of links to the relevant legislation details so if you are interested.


Edited by steeleye20 (09 Jan 2017 12.07pm)

 

snytaxx Flag London 09 Jan 17 11.30am

Originally posted by steeleye20


Free Movement;-

• Since 2004, European Union law has allowed governments to control movements of EU citizens as follows: allow EU citizens to freely circulate only for three months and then require them (should they want to stay longer) to show they are working (employed or self-employed), a registered student or have sufficient resources (pension, savings) to support themselves and comprehensive sickness insurance eg a valid European health insurance card enabling the NHS to claim back the cost of treatment or have private health insurance. The UK is one of the few governments that has not implemented this.

For six years, Theresa May was in charge of the Home Office responsible for immigration, yet did nothing to adopt these conditions. One wonders why not and why immigration was allowed to dominate the referendum and is still being paraded as a big problem. Yet another failure of our own government and the Home Office under Theresa May is being blamed on the EU. The remedy was always in the UK’s hands.

Found at the Guardian site today

Nice post, until you ruined it by mentioning the Guardian.

I think you'll find as well that after the 3 month period is up, an EU national can stay longer should they be able to demonstrate they are highly likely to be able to find a job in the near future (vague as this is). Still, remain once again missing the argument here sadly. It's never been solely about the numbers (at least not for me or any other brexiteer I know). It's always been the fundamental inequality which the EU has has subjected immigration to. Let's be frank here, the above requirements are not exactly a tough set of criteria to abide by. Even if another EU national was to 'fail' to fulfil the above (which are very difficult to actually enforce) , he or she could simply leave the UK and then return again, therefore reseting the the three month time period. When you give one group of people (in thus case EU nationals) almost free access to the UK job market just because they are EU nationals (see you later meritocracy). This can't help but have negative consequences for other groups of migrants wishing to come here who don't have an EU passport.

The EU therefore forces us (the UK) to make a choice, we either discriminate again all non-EU immigrants to keep a barely functional system operational, or we just let go of the reigns completely and just hope for the best. I don't know about you, but that is no way to really run a country.

Regardless, I don't want to overly criticise you, no matter how much I disagree with your above post it's important you are able to continue making such statements. I therefore figured I'd balance out this post and agree with on how much Theresa May royally screwed up relations with non EU countries will desperate trying to get to the 100,000 migration cap, once again, lets just a pick a number and hope for the best kind of policy.

I've met plenty of people here (In China) who tell me of the pain and suffering which they felt when after paying thousands of pounds into the UK in the form of tuition fees and living costs, were told that their post study work visa would be not be granted and that they should 'vacate the county' as soon as they graduated. Awful awful awful! Now when Mrs May wanders around the globe with her hands out like some Victorian beggar saying "Please India, China, pakistan, give us tariff access to your markets" she just gets laughed at, and so she should!

Finally, it's probably only been about 6-7 years which someone can even talk about immigration with out being strung up from a lamppost and their family labelled social outcasts *slight exaggeration alert*. You want to see this topic suppressed again do you?

 

steeleye20 Flag Croydon 09 Jan 17 12.16pm

Originally posted by snytaxx

Nice post, until you ruined it by mentioning the Guardian.

I think you'll find as well that after the 3 month period is up, an EU national can stay longer should they be able to demonstrate they are highly likely to be able to find a job in the near future (vague as this is). Still, remain once again missing the argument here sadly. It's never been solely about the numbers (at least not for me or any other brexiteer I know). It's always been the fundamental inequality which the EU has has subjected immigration to. Let's be frank here, the above requirements are not exactly a tough set of criteria to abide by. Even if another EU national was to 'fail' to fulfil the above (which are very difficult to actually enforce) , he or she could simply leave the UK and then return again, therefore reseting the the three month time period. When you give one group of people (in thus case EU nationals) almost free access to the UK job market just because they are EU nationals (see you later meritocracy). This can't help but have negative consequences for other groups of migrants wishing to come here who don't have an EU passport.

The EU therefore forces us (the UK) to make a choice, we either discriminate again all non-EU immigrants to keep a barely functional system operational, or we just let go of the reigns completely and just hope for the best. I don't know about you, but that is no way to really run a country.

Regardless, I don't want to overly criticise you, no matter how much I disagree with your above post it's important you are able to continue making such statements. I therefore figured I'd balance out this post and agree with on how much Theresa May royally screwed up relations with non EU countries will desperate trying to get to the 100,000 migration cap, once again, lets just a pick a number and hope for the best kind of policy.

I've met plenty of people here (In China) who tell me of the pain and suffering which they felt when after paying thousands of pounds into the UK in the form of tuition fees and living costs, were told that their post study work visa would be not be granted and that they should 'vacate the county' as soon as they graduated. Awful awful awful! Now when Mrs May wanders around the globe with her hands out like some Victorian beggar saying "Please India, China, pakistan, give us tariff access to your markets" she just gets laughed at, and so she should!

Finally, it's probably only been about 6-7 years which someone can even talk about immigration with out being strung up from a lamppost and their family labelled social outcasts *slight exaggeration alert*. You want to see this topic suppressed again do you?

If anybody wants to see for themselves the article is at the Guardian with links to the Europpean legal stuff so you can see what you think.

It looks like there has been scope to tighten controls on free movement from 2004 but was not taken up by UK.

See what you think.


 

nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 09 Jan 17 12.20pm

Originally posted by steeleye20

If anybody wants to see for themselves the article is at the Guardian with links to the Europpean legal stuff so you can see what you think.

It looks like there has been scope to tighten controls on free movement from 2004 but was not taken up by UK.

See what you think.


But but but...even though it might be true it's not because it's in the Guardian and hasn't appeared in any pro brexit papers...

 

snytaxx Flag London 09 Jan 17 12.30pm

Originally posted by steeleye20

If anybody wants to see for themselves the article is at the Guardian with links to the Europpean legal stuff so you can see what you think.

It looks like there has been scope to tighten controls on free movement from 2004 but was not taken up by UK.

See what you think.


I will do, thanks.

Still, as valid as your argument maybe, it would have had more impetus had this come out before the vote.

It is now at best a 'I told you so' kind of remark.

 

snytaxx Flag London 09 Jan 17 12.34pm

Originally posted by nickgusset

But but but...even though it might be true it's not because it's in the Guardian and hasn't appeared in any pro brexit papers...

haha touche!

Do you mean to tell me hold all newspapers and medium in high regard?

 

matt_himself Flag Matataland 10 Jan 17 5.19am

'UK in front seat for US trade deal':

[Link]

 


"That was fun and to round off the day, I am off to steal a charity collection box and then desecrate a place of worship.” - Smokey, The Selhurst Arms, 26/02/02

matt_himself Flag Matataland 10 Jan 17 7.37am

Jezza says that Britain can be better off out of the EU with managed migration. It's taken the old boy 70 odd years to get to this position but glad to see he is recognising that UKIP are right:

[Link]

 


"That was fun and to round off the day, I am off to steal a charity collection box and then desecrate a place of worship.” - Smokey, The Selhurst Arms, 26/02/02

susmik Flag PLYMOUTH -But Made in Old Coulsdon... 10 Jan 17 9.54am

Originally posted by matt_himself

Jezza says that Britain can be better off out of the EU with managed migration. It's taken the old boy 70 odd years to get to this position but glad to see he is recognising that UKIP are right:

[Link]

AT LAST the old timer has come into the same century as us. Perhaps he is panicking after seeing how far Labour has fallen in the voting stakes. It could be the best thing he has ever done since becoming leader.....not that he will ever get into No 10 well not in my lifetime anyway!

 


Supported Palace for over 69 years since the age of 7 and have seen all the ups and downs and will probably see many more ups and downs before I go up to the big football club in the sky.

steeleye20 Flag Croydon 10 Jan 17 10.05am

Why not put manage your migration to the 'Jeremy Corbyn' thread ?

 

nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 10 Jan 17 4.19pm

[Link]


Britain Does Not Have Too Many Migrants. Britain Has Too Many Bigots

 

nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 10 Jan 17 8.10pm

To avoid confusion and see beyond the bulls*** media spin, here is Corbyn's press release regarding free movement.


"Labour is not wedded to freedom of movement for EU citizens as a point of principle.

“But nor can we afford to lose full access to the European markets on which so many British businesses and jobs depend. Changes to the way migration rules operate from the EU will be part of the negotiations.

“Labour supports fair rules and reasonably managed migration as part of the post-Brexit relationship with the EU.

“Unlike the Tories, Labour will not offer false promises on immigration targets or sow division by scapegoating migrants.

“But Labour will take action against undercutting of pay and conditions by closing down cheap labour loopholes, banning exclusive advertising of jobs abroad and strengthening workplace protections.

“That would have the effect of reducing numbers of EU migrant workers in the most deregulated sectors, regardless of the final Brexit deal.”

 

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