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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)


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Mstrobez Flag 28 Jun 17 1.02am

Originally posted by davenotamonkey

Give me the hard economic data that supports us being better off as a country shackled to the EU. For eternity. No? You can't gaze into the future either? Gosh! So you're just going on conjecture are you? "But muh expurts!!" Ah yes. The IMF. The CBI. The Economist. Bloomberg. Siemens. Toyota. PWC. The EU Commission itself. All (and many, many more) have now U-turned, or indeed simply spoken out, having previously been gagged by Cameron during the election (as per Tony Abbott). As I linked to earlier, the Treasury's sexed-up Brexitgeddon referendum scaremongering unraveled and did not stand up to scrutiny then (see the link I provided to my own post back then), nor now.

Will we be better off in the future, having left the EU? Yes. I think we will. My assessment is not borne out of economic tealeaf-reading, nor can yours be of remaining in the EU. But I don't see our membership of an EU superstate as the future direction for this country. This was (according to the most comprehensive exit poll conducted at the time) the #1 reason for voting to leave (sorry to burst your bubble). I read enough economic projections on both sides to judge that, longer-term, it's better we left. I based that on the methodology and assumptions that went into the models used to derive their findings. This is how I work in my day-job, and I came to the conclusion that the near-term uncertainty was a worthwhile factor in securing the many benefits of leaving the EU. Sorry, but not sorry you don't feel the same way. My decision came from a position of research into the subject. Yours demonstrably appears not to have been.

Oh, and a little factoid for you: we do not have "free trade" with the EU. It costs us to trade with them. A lot. As you seem to desperately re-fight the referendum, perhaps you should actually educate yourself about the issues. You never know, you might change your mind. While you're there, go take a look at Canada's deal with the EU, and ask yourself why we were paying a fortune to "free" (sic) trade in the single market, when Canadian access, is (sector-dependent) 94-100% tariff free. For free.

Now. This really is my last reply to you. I'll do my best to skim past your contributions in future. They don't really advance the discussion.

And you still haven't said why or how, or explained your methodology. I've just read paragraphs or more meaningless rhetoric and sound bites. It sums my point up. It's what you all do, other than when you decide to actually bring facts to the table such as the following -

"Sir, Boris Johnson recently asserted that the “EU is a graveyard of low growth”. This claim merits proper examination to determine, precisely, how the UK, US, Germany and France have done since 1973, the year in which the UK joined the EU. Per capita GDP of the UK economy grew by 103%, exceeding the 97% growth of the US. Within the EU, the UK edged out Germany (99%) and clobbered France (74%).

The UK’s growth has exceeded the US while tracking it, even since the crisis of 2008. This makes it hard to argue that the EU is dragging the UK down. Alternatively, compare this to the UK’s performance during the “glory days” of the Empire from 1872 to 1914. Back then Britain’s per capita growth was only 0.9% per year, in contrast to its robust 2.1% since joining the EU.

An important bonus is that the benefits of growth in Britain have been divided much more fairly than in the US. Statistics compiled by the Institute for New Economic Thinking show that Since 1974, median income in the UK grew by 79%, in contrast to 16% for the US. Thus, Britain has had the best of both worlds while a member of the EU -- not just strong growth, but more equal growth.

As the UK economy has grown, it has become more dependent on trade. Since 1973 the ratio of trade to economic output increased from 48% to 67%. At present 45% of the UK’s exports go to other EU member countries. In response to the concern that the EU might impose high tariffs or punitive measures if the UK leaves, some Brexiteers have said that we can “just trade with Australia and Canada”. These two countries, however, only account for a meagre 2.9% of British exports.

History is clear: things have gone very well for Britain as a member of the EU."

But hey what does Boris "have your cake and eat it" Johnson know about anything?

Edited by Mstrobez (28 Jun 2017 1.07am)

 


We're the Arthur over ere!

Mstrobez Flag 28 Jun 17 1.10am

Originally posted by davenotamonkey

You "educated yourself", yet still think UK trade with the EU comes at no cost. LOL.

You do know the contributions we make don't just get thrown into some pot don't you?

 


We're the Arthur over ere!

hedgehog50 Flag Croydon 28 Jun 17 7.57am

Originally posted by Mstrobez

And you still haven't said why or how, or explained your methodology. I've just read paragraphs or more meaningless rhetoric and sound bites. It sums my point up. It's what you all do, other than when you decide to actually bring facts to the table such as the following -

"Sir, Boris Johnson recently asserted that the “EU is a graveyard of low growth”. This claim merits proper examination to determine, precisely, how the UK, US, Germany and France have done since 1973, the year in which the UK joined the EU. Per capita GDP of the UK economy grew by 103%, exceeding the 97% growth of the US. Within the EU, the UK edged out Germany (99%) and clobbered France (74%).

The UK’s growth has exceeded the US while tracking it, even since the crisis of 2008. This makes it hard to argue that the EU is dragging the UK down. Alternatively, compare this to the UK’s performance during the “glory days” of the Empire from 1872 to 1914. Back then Britain’s per capita growth was only 0.9% per year, in contrast to its robust 2.1% since joining the EU.

An important bonus is that the benefits of growth in Britain have been divided much more fairly than in the US. Statistics compiled by the Institute for New Economic Thinking show that Since 1974, median income in the UK grew by 79%, in contrast to 16% for the US. Thus, Britain has had the best of both worlds while a member of the EU -- not just strong growth, but more equal growth.

As the UK economy has grown, it has become more dependent on trade. Since 1973 the ratio of trade to economic output increased from 48% to 67%. At present 45% of the UK’s exports go to other EU member countries. In response to the concern that the EU might impose high tariffs or punitive measures if the UK leaves, some Brexiteers have said that we can “just trade with Australia and Canada”. These two countries, however, only account for a meagre 2.9% of British exports.

History is clear: things have gone very well for Britain as a member of the EU."

But hey what does Boris "have your cake and eat it" Johnson know about anything?

Edited by Mstrobez (28 Jun 2017 1.07am)

When Britain joined in 1973, the states that now make up the EU accounted for 36% of the world economy. Last year, it was 17%. The EU has been outperformed by the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. It’s not hard to see why - Brussels is more concerned with keeping the Euro together as a means to political integration than in the welfare of the poor buggers who have to use it. Why should we allow our geographical position to override ties of language and law, custom and kinship around the world? Why restrict ourselves to the world’s slowest-growing continent?

Edited by hedgehog50 (28 Jun 2017 7.59am)

 


We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men. [Orwell]

Kermit8 Flag Hevon 28 Jun 17 8.14am

^^^^^

Strangely, you missed out a little country called China in your economic assessment.

 


Big chest and massive boobs

[Link]


hedgehog50 Flag Croydon 28 Jun 17 8.19am

Originally posted by Kermit8

^^^^^

Strangely, you missed out a little country called China in your economic assessment.

Predictably, you try to divert away from the points I was making.

 


We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men. [Orwell]

CambridgeEagle Flag Sydenham 28 Jun 17 9.06am

Originally posted by davenotamonkey

Give me the hard economic data that supports us being better off as a country shackled to the EU. For eternity. No? You can't gaze into the future either? Gosh! So you're just going on conjecture are you? "But muh expurts!!" Ah yes. The IMF. The CBI. The Economist. Bloomberg. Siemens. Toyota. PWC. The EU Commission itself. All (and many, many more) have now U-turned, or indeed simply spoken out, having previously been gagged by Cameron during the election (as per Tony Abbott). As I linked to earlier, the Treasury's sexed-up Brexitgeddon referendum scaremongering unraveled and did not stand up to scrutiny then (see the link I provided to my own post back then), nor now.

Will we be better off in the future, having left the EU? Yes. I think we will. My assessment is not borne out of economic tealeaf-reading, nor can yours be of remaining in the EU. But I don't see our membership of an EU superstate as the future direction for this country. This was (according to the most comprehensive exit poll conducted at the time) the #1 reason for voting to leave (sorry to burst your bubble). I read enough economic projections on both sides to judge that, longer-term, it's better we left. I based that on the methodology and assumptions that went into the models used to derive their findings. This is how I work in my day-job, and I came to the conclusion that the near-term uncertainty was a worthwhile factor in securing the many benefits of leaving the EU. Sorry, but not sorry you don't feel the same way. My decision came from a position of research into the subject. Yours demonstrably appears not to have been.

Oh, and a little factoid for you: we do not have "free trade" with the EU. It costs us to trade with them. A lot. As you seem to desperately re-fight the referendum, perhaps you should actually educate yourself about the issues. You never know, you might change your mind. While you're there, go take a look at Canada's deal with the EU, and ask yourself why we were paying a fortune to "free" (sic) trade in the single market, when Canadian access, is (sector-dependent) 94-100% tariff free. For free.

Now. This really is my last reply to you. I'll do my best to skim past your contributions in future. They don't really advance the discussion.

PwC's recent report on the World in 2050 said:

Of course, we should not dismiss political shocks like Trump or Brexit to the extent they point to deeper structural shifts, notably a populist backlash against globalisation, automation and the perceived impact of these trends in increasing income inequality and weakening social cohesion.

These trends pose real policy challenges across the developed world and beyond and, as we discuss in Section 4 of this report, there is no silver bullet to address these concerns. They require determined efforts by governments to boost the quality of education and training, and address perceived unfairness through well-targeted fiscal policies. They also require real political leadership to resist calls for increased protectionism and maintain momentum on longer term issues like climate change and global poverty reduction.

Also from the Report:

Inequality is not just a matter of social justice, but can also act as a drag on economic growth. Recent research by the IMF has found that, on average, a one percentage point increase in the income share of the top 20 percent lowers GDP growth by 0.08 percentage point in the following five years. These findings contradict previous thinking that the benefits of growth will trickle down to those at the bottom. In fact, the findings show that a more equal society could increase economic growth, with a one percentage point increase in the bottom 20%’s income share being associated with a 0.38 percentage point increase in growth over the following five years. This may occur through greater standards of living boosting productivity or equality generating the right incentives for individuals and businesses to invest in education and innovation. Greater economic inequality may also lead to social friction and potentially undesirable political outcomes.

The Tories are actively seeking policies that increase inequality, cut spending on education, remove the positive impact of fiscal policy, threats of leaving the EU on WTO terms (a very bad deal), put a climate change sceptic in charge of the Environment Office (May dodges every question about climate change put to her), and employed very poor political leadership since they won a majority in 2015.

Unfairness only continues to increase under this government and their policies of austerity (unless of course you live in Northern Ireland now)

These guys are going about the challenges of Brexit the wrong way.

Dave - did you factor in the Tory debacle and their poor handling of the economy and Brexit into your thinking? I don't disagree with your sentiments that in the long run it can be a success but these guys are sinking the ship and the damage may be difficult to repair.

 

CambridgeEagle Flag Sydenham 28 Jun 17 9.12am

Originally posted by We are goin up!

I voted Leave but there's absolutely no chance we'll know whether Brexit is a success or not until about 15 years' time. Nothing has actually changed yet, but both sides are jumping on any bit of good/bad news and showing it as PROOF that their side is right. It's bonkers, and also getting quite boring.

I think it will be clear within 12 months. If the Tories are still clinging to power propped up by the DUP it won't be a success. They will create lasting damage to our nation and our economy.

Edited by CambridgeEagle (28 Jun 2017 9.13am)

 

hedgehog50 Flag Croydon 28 Jun 17 9.59am

Originally posted by CambridgeEagle

The Tories are actively seeking policies that increase inequality, cut spending on education, remove the positive impact of fiscal policy, threats of leaving the EU on WTO terms (a very bad deal), put a climate change sceptic in charge of the Environment Office (May dodges every question about climate change put to her), and employed very poor political leadership since they won a majority in 2015.

Unfairness only continues to increase under this government and their policies of austerity (unless of course you live in Northern Ireland now)

These guys are going about the challenges of Brexit the wrong way.

Dave - did you factor in the Tory debacle and their poor handling of the economy and Brexit into your thinking? I don't disagree with your sentiments that in the long run it can be a success but these guys are sinking the ship and the damage may be difficult to repair.

So campaign for Corbyn, or whoever, start another party that supports your views perhaps, after all we are still a democracy. Sooner or later there will be another General Election and the electorate will be able to choose again between a somewhat incompetent Tory government and a communist-lite alternative.

 


We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men. [Orwell]

CambridgeEagle Flag Sydenham 28 Jun 17 10.23am

Originally posted by hedgehog50

So campaign for Corbyn, or whoever, start another party that supports your views perhaps, after all we are still a democracy. Sooner or later there will be another General Election and the electorate will be able to choose again between a somewhat incompetent Tory government and a communist-lite alternative.

As you're aware I've been campaigning for Labour on these boards and Labour are now in constant campaign mode. I'm also campaigning outside of HOL across many forms of media.

I would hope that those of you in favour of Brexit would see these warnings from people like PwC, look at the bungling Tories and their terrible handing of the economy and want someone else to run things, a party with more sensible fiscal policies and a party that wants to get rid of the TTIPs and opaqueness (which only benefits vested interests) that the EU promotes and actually improve protections for workers and the environment. The Tories was to take away what protections people and our environment have been afforded by the EU not better them. They love stuff like TTIP and Tisa. Leaving with them in charge would see our rights and our protections eroded and our economy weakened.

 

hedgehog50 Flag Croydon 28 Jun 17 10.37am

Originally posted by CambridgeEagle

As you're aware I've been campaigning for Labour on these boards and Labour are now in constant campaign mode. I'm also campaigning outside of HOL across many forms of media.

I would hope that those of you in favour of Brexit would see these warnings from people like PwC, look at the bungling Tories and their terrible handing of the economy and want someone else to run things, a party with more sensible fiscal policies and a party that wants to get rid of the TTIPs and opaqueness (which only benefits vested interests) that the EU promotes and actually improve protections for workers and the environment. The Tories was to take away what protections people and our environment have been afforded by the EU not better them. They love stuff like TTIP and Tisa. Leaving with them in charge would see our rights and our protections eroded and our economy weakened.

Well I'm not going to vote for people like Corbyn who, if they came to power, would turn this still relatively green and pleasant land into one of misery and poverty. Currently, we resemble South America where, immediately after an election, the loser declares it null and void and demands a repeat performance. What is the difference between McDonnell's call for a million people to take to the streets and a banana-republic loser's call for mob civil disobedience?

 


We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men. [Orwell]

Hansy Flag 28 Jun 17 10.42am

Originally posted by nickgusset

For the record I want brexit to go well and accept that is the path we are following. I just wish someone with a bit of common (sense and decency) was leading us down it.

With someone like Corbyn that doesn't have a plan B? What happens if we don't get single market access? Oh sorry is it membership Labour wants? No it's a partnership right? Ah I'm confused.

I am confident that the Tories/DUP will fight for single market access or if not a deal that is better than no deal. It's a negotiation process, no side will accept the first proposals. And sometimes you have to play hardball to get what you want.

Edited by Hansy (28 Jun 2017 10.42am)

 

Hansy Flag 28 Jun 17 11.35am

Originally posted by hedgehog50

Well I'm not going to vote for people like Corbyn who, if they came to power, would turn this still relatively green and pleasant land into one of misery and poverty. Currently, we resemble South America where, immediately after an election, the loser declares it null and void and demands a repeat performance. What is the difference between McDonnell's call for a million people to take to the streets and a banana-republic loser's call for mob civil disobedience?

Can McDonnell count to a million? I'm sure I saw him in the SNP headquarters seeing if they still have enough seats to form a coalition.

 

CambridgeEagle Flag Sydenham 28 Jun 17 11.38am

Originally posted by hedgehog50

Well I'm not going to vote for people like Corbyn who, if they came to power, would turn this still relatively green and pleasant land into one of misery and poverty. Currently, we resemble South America where, immediately after an election, the loser declares it null and void and demands a repeat performance. What is the difference between McDonnell's call for a million people to take to the streets and a banana-republic loser's call for mob civil disobedience?

What a fatuous response.

 

steeleye20 Flag Croydon 28 Jun 17 11.52am

Originally posted by CambridgeEagle

What a fatuous response.

Haha you are lucky its usually gay clerics in Northern Ireland (marxists of course) from HHog...

 

Username Flag Horsham 28 Jun 17 12.10pm

Originally posted by Hansy

With someone like Corbyn that doesn't have a plan B? What happens if we don't get single market access? Oh sorry is it membership Labour wants? No it's a partnership right? Ah I'm confused.

I am confident that the Tories/DUP will fight for single market access or if not a deal that is better than no deal. It's a negotiation process, no side will accept the first proposals. And sometimes you have to play hardball to get what you want.

Edited by Hansy (28 Jun 2017 10.42am)


I'm not. Theresa May said in January that she didn't want to remain in the single market, that's after in June saying she wanted to stay in the EU and now she's saying something different. They have no plan.

Sometimes you have to play hardball, but you don't start off that way, acting like billy big bollocks before you've even started. Some of the absolute nonsense coming from people like Boris Johnson, the conflicting messages from other senior Tories. It's a terrible way to start negotiating.

 


Employee of the month is a good example of how someone can be both a winner and a loser at the same time.

Hansy Flag 28 Jun 17 12.34pm

Originally posted by Username


I'm not. Theresa May said in January that she didn't want to remain in the single market, that's after in June saying she wanted to stay in the EU and now she's saying something different. They have no plan.

Sometimes you have to play hardball, but you don't start off that way, acting like billy big bollocks before you've even started. Some of the absolute nonsense coming from people like Boris Johnson, the conflicting messages from other senior Tories. It's a terrible way to start negotiating.

Of course you start off that way, how else do you negotiate anything? I have to negotiate on a daily basis, all my clients tell me what they expect and then the negotiations begin.

I am more confident in the Tories getting the correct deal than any other party. And more so with the DUP in coalition. It's easy for the left to think Corbyn would have been better as he has been promising the world. But yet again he can't deliver on anything he says.

Edited by Hansy (28 Jun 2017 12.35pm)

 

hedgehog50 Flag Croydon 28 Jun 17 12.41pm

Originally posted by steeleye20

Haha you are lucky its usually gay clerics in Northern Ireland (marxists of course) from HHog...

Would you care to explain this?

 


We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men. [Orwell]

Username Flag Horsham 28 Jun 17 12.45pm

Originally posted by Hansy

Of course you start off that way, how else do you negotiate anything? I have to negotiate on a daily basis, all my clients tell me what they expect and then the negotiations begin.

I am more confident in the Tories getting the correct deal than any other party. And more so with the DUP in coalition. It's easy for the left to think Corbyn would have been better as he has been promising the world. But yet again he can't deliver on anything he says.

Edited by Hansy (28 Jun 2017 12.35pm)

Nonsense. Negotiation is about working together, not being 'bloody difficult'.

If I walked into your office and started by saying 'we want this, this and this and we will only play this', and then refusing to hear any counter argument, how does that normally work?

Otherwise you're just the loud shouty tossers in the room who no one wants to work with or for.

 


Employee of the month is a good example of how someone can be both a winner and a loser at the same time.

hedgehog50 Flag Croydon 28 Jun 17 12.58pm

NatCen survey shows that Britain is more Eurosceptic than ever: In the aftermath of the Referendum the public has become more sceptical about the EU than ever before. Three in four (75%) feel that Britain should either leave the EU or that if it stays the EU’s powers should be reduced - up from 65% in 2015. Only one in five favoured the status quo or EU expansion.

[Link]

Edited by hedgehog50 (28 Jun 2017 12.58pm)

 


We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men. [Orwell]

Hansy Flag 28 Jun 17 1.01pm

Originally posted by Username

Nonsense. Negotiation is about working together, not being 'bloody difficult'.

If I walked into your office and started by saying 'we want this, this and this and we will only play this', and then refusing to hear any counter argument, how does that normally work?

Otherwise you're just the loud shouty tossers in the room who no one wants to work with or for.

It's about coming to an agreement. A reasonable deal for both sides. Sometimes you have to be difficult to get a good deal. A side might think X is a good deal, but the other side might think this benefits the otherside more.

The Tories haven't acted like that in negotiations. The only thing we have seen is TM's proposal, we haven't seen anything Davis has been proposing etc. So how do you know they are demanding?

 

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