The Election Thread

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The Election Thread

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Invalid user 2019 17 Nov 19 2.36pm
Originally posted by serial thriller People complain that politicians don't stick to their principles. Corbyn on freedom of movement is doing just that. You can agree or disagree, but he is at least being transparent. The Tories have tried to play the immigration card for years and in reality done little to achieve the targets they espouse. As for this election, there is something very interesting and unreported happening in the polls. Predicted turnout for young people is being seriously underestimated, with most pollsters suggesting it will be lower than 2017. Why? This generation is more politicised than many previous ones, with climate change, tuition fees and brexit. It looks like the mistakes of 2017 are being repeated, I think this election will be lot closer than many think. I agree that the lip service by the conservatives paid to reducing immigration, may not materialise. I long suspected that if EU immigration numbers came down, the floodgates would be opened to non EU. In effect that has already happened, and so one could argue that doesn't bode well no matter what is offered by way of promises or manifesto pledges now. The trouble is that even with this in mind, if someone is shall we say anti immigration, or wants a limit on numbers, they are very limited in terms of where they can lend their vote to. This all factors into the referendum result and indeed the popularity of the ever present Nigel Farage. It was the idea that there was no other way to express a particular view. Non that I'm saying if someone holds the opposite view it's invalid in some way, just that where it's not possible for parts of the population to be heard, eventually their view will find a way to bubble to the surface anyway. If the EU had been more open to reason, say a cap on immigration numbers in any given year, we likely wouldn't be in this position to begin with. Edited by dollardays (17 Nov 2019 2.39pm)

Invalid user 2019

17 Nov 19 2.36pm

Originally posted by serial thriller

People complain that politicians don't stick to their principles. Corbyn on freedom of movement is doing just that. You can agree or disagree, but he is at least being transparent.

The Tories have tried to play the immigration card for years and in reality done little to achieve the targets they espouse.

As for this election, there is something very interesting and unreported happening in the polls. Predicted turnout for young people is being seriously underestimated, with most pollsters suggesting it will be lower than 2017. Why? This generation is more politicised than many previous ones, with climate change, tuition fees and brexit. It looks like the mistakes of 2017 are being repeated, I think this election will be lot closer than many think.

I agree that the lip service by the conservatives paid to reducing immigration, may not materialise. I long suspected that if EU immigration numbers came down, the floodgates would be opened to non EU. In effect that has already happened, and so one could argue that doesn't bode well no matter what is offered by way of promises or manifesto pledges now.

The trouble is that even with this in mind, if someone is shall we say anti immigration, or wants a limit on numbers, they are very limited in terms of where they can lend their vote to. This all factors into the referendum result and indeed the popularity of the ever present Nigel Farage. It was the idea that there was no other way to express a particular view. Non that I'm saying if someone holds the opposite view it's invalid in some way, just that where it's not possible for parts of the population to be heard, eventually their view will find a way to bubble to the surface anyway.

If the EU had been more open to reason, say a cap on immigration numbers in any given year, we likely wouldn't be in this position to begin with.

Edited by dollardays (17 Nov 2019 2.39pm)

serial thriller The Promised Land 17 Nov 19 2.49pm
Originally posted by Willo At the last election Labour put out a message of abolishing student debt then retracted under scrutiny and said it wasn't a promise at all. Whereas under the Tories, people like me (25) signed up to loans which we were told wouldn't change. Since then, the interest rates have gone up, the rate at which you have to pay it back has increased, and serious consideration is being given to privatizing them which will lead to further increases. And as we speak, the cheap private contractor cladding is going up in flames at a university in Bolton. Money well spent! If punk ever happened I'd be preaching the law, instead of listenin to Lydon lecture BBC4

serial thriller

The Promised Land 17 Nov 19 2.49pm

Originally posted by Willo

At the last election Labour put out a message of abolishing student debt then retracted under scrutiny and said it wasn't a promise at all.

Whereas under the Tories, people like me (25) signed up to loans which we were told wouldn't change. Since then, the interest rates have gone up, the rate at which you have to pay it back has increased, and serious consideration is being given to privatizing them which will lead to further increases.

And as we speak, the cheap private contractor cladding is going up in flames at a university in Bolton. Money well spent!

If punk ever happened I'd be preaching the law, instead of listenin to Lydon lecture BBC4

Invalid user 2019 17 Nov 19 2.58pm
Originally posted by serial thriller Whereas under the Tories, people like me (25) signed up to loans which we were told wouldn't change. Since then, the interest rates have gone up, the rate at which you have to pay it back has increased, and serious consideration is being given to privatizing them which will lead to further increases. And as we speak, the cheap private contractor cladding is going up in flames at a university in Bolton. Money well spent! Young people get shafted each election. It's a demographics issue really with parties calculating who to pander to. It's hard to do much about that, other than getting out and voting in greater numbers. But if people don't feel represented, or that at that age they're less politically engaged, the situation is unlikely to change. A lot of voting comes down to self interest and if you're not in a voting block that has influence, you can become something of a bystander.

Invalid user 2019

17 Nov 19 2.58pm

Originally posted by serial thriller

And as we speak, the cheap private contractor cladding is going up in flames at a university in Bolton. Money well spent!

Young people get shafted each election. It's a demographics issue really with parties calculating who to pander to. It's hard to do much about that, other than getting out and voting in greater numbers. But if people don't feel represented, or that at that age they're less politically engaged, the situation is unlikely to change. A lot of voting comes down to self interest and if you're not in a voting block that has influence, you can become something of a bystander.

Willo South coast - west of Brighton. 17 Nov 19 3.00pm
Originally posted by serial thriller Whereas under the Tories, people like me (25) signed up to loans which we were told wouldn't change. Since then, the interest rates have gone up, the rate at which you have to pay it back has increased, and serious consideration is being given to privatizing them which will lead to further increases. And as we speak, the cheap private contractor cladding is going up in flames at a university in Bolton. Money well spent! Who provided the commitment that the loan rate would not increase - the loan providers ? Furthermore interest rates have been low for many a year. Apropos "Further increases" look no further than the Labour party with their tax increases and astronomical borrowing plans which would bankrupt this country. I understand that to some, "Privitisation" is anathema to them and of course to those who are of this opinion one can expect negativities.

Willo

South coast - west of Brighton. 17 Nov 19 3.00pm

Originally posted by serial thriller

And as we speak, the cheap private contractor cladding is going up in flames at a university in Bolton. Money well spent!

Who provided the commitment that the loan rate would not increase - the loan providers ?
Furthermore interest rates have been low for many a year.
Apropos "Further increases" look no further than the Labour party with their tax increases and astronomical borrowing plans which would bankrupt this country.

I understand that to some, "Privitisation" is anathema to them and of course to those who are of this opinion one can expect negativities.

serial thriller The Promised Land 17 Nov 19 3.05pm
Originally posted by dollardays Young people get shafted each election. It's a demographics issue really with parties calculating who to pander to. It's hard to do much about that, other than getting out and voting in greater numbers. But if people don't feel represented, or that at that age they're less politically engaged, the situation is unlikely to change. A lot of voting comes down to self interest and if you're not in a voting block that has influence, you can become something of a bystander. This is what baffles me about the polling thing I raised. In the last 2 weeks over a million 18-24 year olds have newly registered to vote; this is in the wake of the enormous youth climate protests which saw numbers of youths on the streets like no time in our memory. And voter turnout of that age group has been steadily on the rise for the last two or three elections. So again, it makes me question why they predict it will be so low at this one? It seems they haven't learnt their lessons from the referendum/trump/2017 regarding weighting. If punk ever happened I'd be preaching the law, instead of listenin to Lydon lecture BBC4

serial thriller

The Promised Land 17 Nov 19 3.05pm

Originally posted by dollardays

This is what baffles me about the polling thing I raised. In the last 2 weeks over a million 18-24 year olds have newly registered to vote; this is in the wake of the enormous youth climate protests which saw numbers of youths on the streets like no time in our memory. And voter turnout of that age group has been steadily on the rise for the last two or three elections.

So again, it makes me question why they predict it will be so low at this one? It seems they haven't learnt their lessons from the referendum/trump/2017 regarding weighting.

If punk ever happened I'd be preaching the law, instead of listenin to Lydon lecture BBC4

serial thriller The Promised Land 17 Nov 19 3.08pm
[Tweet Link] This is what I'm on about btw. But Kantar aren't the only ones... If punk ever happened I'd be preaching the law, instead of listenin to Lydon lecture BBC4

serial thriller

The Promised Land 17 Nov 19 3.08pm

[Tweet Link]

This is what I'm on about btw. But Kantar aren't the only ones...

If punk ever happened I'd be preaching the law, instead of listenin to Lydon lecture BBC4

steeleye20 Croydon 17 Nov 19 3.11pm
The tories have had their 10 years and frankly, they have been a disaster. If they stumble through this election it still looks a collection of out-dated redundant ideas. As for austerity, they really should have read their Keynes, an economy must always have stimulus. Perhaps they think a public library is communism.

steeleye20

Croydon 17 Nov 19 3.11pm

The tories have had their 10 years and frankly, they have been a disaster.

If they stumble through this election it still looks a collection of out-dated redundant ideas.

As for austerity, they really should have read their Keynes, an economy must always have stimulus.

Perhaps they think a public library is communism.

Invalid user 2019 17 Nov 19 3.14pm
Originally posted by serial thriller This is what baffles me about the polling thing I raised. In the last 2 weeks over a million 18-24 year olds have newly registered to vote; this is in the wake of the enormous youth climate protests which saw numbers of youths on the streets like no time in our memory. And voter turnout of that age group has been steadily on the rise for the last two or three elections. So again, it makes me question why they predict it will be so low at this one? It seems they haven't learnt their lessons from the referendum/trump/2017 regarding weighting. As a voting block it does tend to be the least engaged, and for all kind of reasons that I don't think need to be a criticism of young people, I can appreciate that. So you're never going to get those barely out of their teens voting to the same level as pensioners. Polls and predictions can always be off the mark though, and if as you say 'in the last 2 weeks over a million 18-24 year olds have newly registered to vote' I would certainly assume that they intend to vote, so it could move the needle a little. There are bound to be some surprises and interesting stats to dig through after the election.

Invalid user 2019

17 Nov 19 3.14pm

Originally posted by serial thriller

So again, it makes me question why they predict it will be so low at this one? It seems they haven't learnt their lessons from the referendum/trump/2017 regarding weighting.

As a voting block it does tend to be the least engaged, and for all kind of reasons that I don't think need to be a criticism of young people, I can appreciate that. So you're never going to get those barely out of their teens voting to the same level as pensioners.

Polls and predictions can always be off the mark though, and if as you say 'in the last 2 weeks over a million 18-24 year olds have newly registered to vote' I would certainly assume that they intend to vote, so it could move the needle a little. There are bound to be some surprises and interesting stats to dig through after the election.

chris123 hove actually 17 Nov 19 3.20pm
Originally posted by Willo Who provided the commitment that the loan rate would not increase - the loan providers ? Furthermore interest rates have been low for many a year. Apropos "Further increases" look no further than the Labour party with their tax increases and astronomical borrowing plans which would bankrupt this country. I understand that to some, "Privitisation" is anathema to them and of course to those who are of this opinion one can expect negativities. The Student Loan Company administer the loan book, but some of the older loans were sold off years ago.

chris123

hove actually 17 Nov 19 3.20pm

Originally posted by Willo

I understand that to some, "Privitisation" is anathema to them and of course to those who are of this opinion one can expect negativities.

The Student Loan Company administer the loan book, but some of the older loans were sold off years ago.

cryrst The garden of England 17 Nov 19 3.25pm
Originally posted by steeleye20 You will not get NHS treatment free anywhere. It was about £250 to start with, not sure now, the proposal is to remove the first tier only to encourage better dental health which is very necessary. I don't think that will cost very much. Remember most of us pay for the NHS through taxation. The cost, if true from W, of 450 millions, would only buy you a few feet of HS2 railway track. Basic dental visit is about 60 You pay incrementally on that so on the first visit as a checkup and fillings you pay 22 Then if you go back for a clean you pay the rest. 6 monthly seems too soon so annually it's a quid a week. Not really a bundle when that's how you look at it.

cryrst

The garden of England 17 Nov 19 3.25pm

Originally posted by steeleye20

You will not get NHS treatment free anywhere.

It was about £250 to start with, not sure now, the proposal is to remove the first tier only to encourage better dental health which is very necessary.

I don't think that will cost very much.

Remember most of us pay for the NHS through taxation.

The cost, if true from W, of 450 millions, would only buy you a few feet of HS2 railway track.

Basic dental visit is about 60
You pay incrementally on that so on the first visit as a checkup and fillings you pay 22
Then if you go back for a clean you pay the rest.
6 monthly seems too soon so annually it's a quid a week.
Not really a bundle when that's how you look at it.

Badger11 Beckenham 17 Nov 19 3.30pm
Originally posted by serial thriller Whereas under the Tories, people like me (25) signed up to loans which we were told wouldn't change. Since then, the interest rates have gone up, the rate at which you have to pay it back has increased, and serious consideration is being given to privatizing them which will lead to further increases. And as we speak, the cheap private contractor cladding is going up in flames at a university in Bolton. Money well spent! Isn't that a Labour council? It's local issue so surely down to them? One more point

Badger11

Beckenham 17 Nov 19 3.30pm

Originally posted by serial thriller

And as we speak, the cheap private contractor cladding is going up in flames at a university in Bolton. Money well spent!

Isn't that a Labour council? It's local issue so surely down to them?

One more point

Deleted11 17 Nov 19 3.30pm
Originally posted by Willo Who provided the commitment that the loan rate would not increase - the loan providers ? Furthermore interest rates have been low for many a year. Apropos "Further increases" look no further than the Labour party with their tax increases and astronomical borrowing plans which would bankrupt this country. I understand that to some, "Privitisation" is anathema to them and of course to those who are of this opinion one can expect negativities. Well said. For a pleb like me, i have only seen the govnt debt rise. Do the Conservatives have a target on what the debt should be reduced to?

Deleted11 17 Nov 19 3.30pm

Originally posted by Willo

I understand that to some, "Privitisation" is anathema to them and of course to those who are of this opinion one can expect negativities.

Well said.

For a pleb like me, i have only seen the govnt debt rise. Do the Conservatives have a target on what the debt should be reduced to?

Badger11 Beckenham 17 Nov 19 3.35pm
Originally posted by Stirlingsays People don't work like that....can you tell me a successful example of the nanny state?. Waste of time. Incentives work, the nanny state doesn't. Edited by Stirlingsays (17 Nov 2019 2.06pm) I believe you are a fan of Japan as I previously said they direct large amounts of money into preventative health care. One more point

Badger11

Beckenham 17 Nov 19 3.35pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

People don't work like that....can you tell me a successful example of the nanny state?.

Waste of time.

Incentives work, the nanny state doesn't.

Edited by Stirlingsays (17 Nov 2019 2.06pm)

I believe you are a fan of Japan as I previously said they direct large amounts of money into preventative health care.

One more point

chris123 hove actually 17 Nov 19 3.39pm
Originally posted by steeleye20 The tories have had their 10 years and frankly, they have been a disaster. If they stumble through this election it still looks a collection of out-dated redundant ideas. As for austerity, they really should have read their Keynes, an economy must always have stimulus. Perhaps they think a public library is communism. Then how come they can borrow so cheaply?

chris123

hove actually 17 Nov 19 3.39pm

Originally posted by steeleye20

The tories have had their 10 years and frankly, they have been a disaster.

If they stumble through this election it still looks a collection of out-dated redundant ideas.

As for austerity, they really should have read their Keynes, an economy must always have stimulus.

Perhaps they think a public library is communism.

Then how come they can borrow so cheaply?

cryrst The garden of England 17 Nov 19 3.45pm
The reason that borrowing is so cheap is because the tories didnt. Now labour and the lib dems and the greens have benefited with their promises. Clearly austerity has worked! A bit like building your credit score by paying off debt at a sensible rate and not borrowing stupidly.

cryrst

The garden of England 17 Nov 19 3.45pm

The reason that borrowing is so cheap is because the tories didnt.
Now labour and the lib dems and the greens have benefited with their promises.
Clearly austerity has worked!
A bit like building your credit score by paying off debt at a sensible rate and not borrowing stupidly.

Badger11 Beckenham 17 Nov 19 3.47pm
Originally posted by dollardays As a voting block it does tend to be the least engaged, and for all kind of reasons that I don't think need to be a criticism of young people, I can appreciate that. So you're never going to get those barely out of their teens voting to the same level as pensioners. Polls and predictions can always be off the mark though, and if as you say 'in the last 2 weeks over a million 18-24 year olds have newly registered to vote' I would certainly assume that they intend to vote, so it could move the needle a little. There are bound to be some surprises and interesting stats to dig through after the election. The way we register for voting has changed in he last few years. It used to be that a form was sent to the home and one person would complete it on behalf of the family. So one form may have Mum Dad and 2 teenagers on it not that the teenagers even noticed. Today each person is expected to register individually, however what is not clear just yet is do more or less people register. 1mm people in several weeks sounds a lot but it maybe that it is par for the course before an election it just wasn't noticed as they were previously group returns. After the 2017 the media reported that the young turned our in droves to vote for Corbyn. Later I saw some research that suggested the youth turnout was not that much different from previous elections! If they are registering in larger numbers and intend to vote that has to be a good thing and no doubt the pollsters will have to adjust their predications if they get it wrong yet again. One final point you have to register each year so are they new voters are voters simply re-registering from last year? Edited by Badger11 (17 Nov 2019 3.49pm) One more point

Badger11

Beckenham 17 Nov 19 3.47pm

Originally posted by dollardays

The way we register for voting has changed in he last few years. It used to be that a form was sent to the home and one person would complete it on behalf of the family. So one form may have Mum Dad and 2 teenagers on it not that the teenagers even noticed.

Today each person is expected to register individually, however what is not clear just yet is do more or less people register. 1mm people in several weeks sounds a lot but it maybe that it is par for the course before an election it just wasn't noticed as they were previously group returns.

After the 2017 the media reported that the young turned our in droves to vote for Corbyn. Later I saw some research that suggested the youth turnout was not that much different from previous elections!

If they are registering in larger numbers and intend to vote that has to be a good thing and no doubt the pollsters will have to adjust their predications if they get it wrong yet again.

One final point you have to register each year so are they new voters are voters simply re-registering from last year?

Edited by Badger11 (17 Nov 2019 3.49pm)

One more point

Deleted11 17 Nov 19 4.07pm
Originally posted by cryrst The reason that borrowing is so cheap is because the tories didnt. Now labour and the lib dems and the greens have benefited with their promises. Clearly austerity has worked! A bit like building your credit score by paying off debt at a sensible rate and not borrowing stupidly. Wow. I'm not an elite economist, but that statement is completely false. The whole paragraph doesnt even make sense from an economic pov. Im more than willing for you to change my mind, but i doubt you will. The reason int rates are low has nothing to do with any party policy or action. Its supposed to be a stimulus to the private sector, which is keeping the bomb ticking along. Nothing more nothing less. If the economy was great, we would have around 4 to 5% rates

Deleted11 17 Nov 19 4.07pm

Originally posted by cryrst

The reason that borrowing is so cheap is because the tories didnt.
Now labour and the lib dems and the greens have benefited with their promises.
Clearly austerity has worked!
A bit like building your credit score by paying off debt at a sensible rate and not borrowing stupidly.

Wow. I'm not an elite economist, but that statement is completely false. The whole paragraph doesnt even make sense from an economic pov. Im more than willing for you to change my mind, but i doubt you will.

The reason int rates are low has nothing to do with any party policy or action. Its supposed to be a stimulus to the private sector, which is keeping the bomb ticking along. Nothing more nothing less. If the economy was great, we would have around 4 to 5% rates

Stirlingsays 17 Nov 19 4.13pm
Originally posted by Badger11 I believe you are a fan of Japan as I previously said they direct large amounts of money into preventative health care. Massive fan. Japan's healthcare costs quite a lot more than ours....Increasing life expectancy over a vast population....It doesn't save as much as you'd think as you increase costs in other areas. Edited by Stirlingsays (17 Nov 2019 4.13pm) 'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Stirlingsays

17 Nov 19 4.13pm

Originally posted by Badger11

I believe you are a fan of Japan as I previously said they direct large amounts of money into preventative health care.

Massive fan.

Japan's healthcare costs quite a lot more than ours....Increasing life expectancy over a vast population....It doesn't save as much as you'd think as you increase costs in other areas.

Edited by Stirlingsays (17 Nov 2019 4.13pm)

'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

steeleye20 Croydon 17 Nov 19 4.50pm
Originally posted by cryrst The reason that borrowing is so cheap is because the tories didnt. Now labour and the lib dems and the greens have benefited with their promises. Clearly austerity has worked! A bit like building your credit score by paying off debt at a sensible rate and not borrowing stupidly. So basically Chez Cryst, if the roof is leaking you would not borrow to fix it as you can always sleep rough.

steeleye20

Croydon 17 Nov 19 4.50pm

Originally posted by cryrst

So basically Chez Cryst, if the roof is leaking you would not borrow to fix it as you can always sleep rough.

steeleye20 Croydon 17 Nov 19 5.07pm
I can't find anything, not one thing anywhere positive about Johnson. However I have a sneaking respect for a guy who can dump a woman.

steeleye20

Croydon 17 Nov 19 5.07pm

I can't find anything, not one thing anywhere positive about Johnson.

However I have a sneaking respect for a guy who can dump a woman.

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