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Relegation 22/23

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doombear Flag Too far from Selhurst Park 14 Feb 23 1.48pm Send a Private Message to doombear Add doombear as a friend

Originally posted by TheBigToePunt

I'd be very surprised if we went down this year. The 'games-played' figure keeps ticking away without the league position changing much. That's partly down to us, and partly down to others. We are playing poorly but picking up points along the way. One or two of the teams beneath us are getting their act together, but one or two are a mess, and not capable of the points-per-game ratio required to overtake us.

In the end, at some point or another, we will of course go down. We are not gravity-proof, and I don't understand the mindset that we should be 'kicking on' having 'established ourselves' in this league. We have a much bigger budget than most championship clubs but have never been, and never will be, big fish in the premier league pond.

Our income from the stadium is obviously fixed at a relatively low level in comparison to most of the clubs we compete with. Even the new stand will only bring us closer to our immediate financial rivals, rather than overtaking anyone.

In terms of prize money, the higher up the table we finish the more money we get, but that just means that every year at least half (usually two-thirds) of the clubs we compete with get more than us to spend next time-around. Basic maths tells you that it gets harder every year.

The financial figures are published openly. The FFP rules are complex but the gist is clear. I sometimes wonder if anyone even reads that stuff when I see so many comments moaning about 'investment' and the clubs being tight-fisted etc.

We are absolutely at the glass ceiling as a club. The academy and new stand are all about trying to find ways to stay where we are, but nobody can swim upstream forever.

When we do one day bite the bullet and go down, we should be a far, far healthier club than we were before, and far more likely to exist for future generations. Nobody running the club is incompetent, greedy, or lazy. Anyone with any knowledge of the club's history and the financial context knows that this is, unarguably, Palace at its very best. That is never going to be enough to consistently occupy the next level (European football). There are just too many bigger fish.

Relegation is an inevitable part of the life of every football club bar a very select few. A properly run club is one that can accommodate that reality, and it seems to me that ours can.

Edited by TheBigToePunt (14 Feb 2023 12.37pm)


Excellent post TBTP. A sobering dose of realism about who we are and what we can realistically expect to achieve.

Yes a number of clubs have had standout one-off seasons in the PL and have usually suffered for it. One off success usually results in
- second season struggles as the club strains to play in Europe as well as domestically
- increased wages for existing players as well as for new players deemed necessary to provide for the extra burden of having a European campaign
- having to pay extra for new players so as to try and keep the success going

And no - the extra revenues gained by the higher finish and the European adventure won't cover those extra costs.

Think:
- Bolton
- Middlesbrough
- Stoke
- Portsmouth
- Birmingham
- Wigan
- Burnley

If ever we were to qualify for Europe whether through league position or a cup win, I just hope we will simply focus on maintaining our PL status and enjoying the European ride without throwing unnecessary funds at trying to move up to the next level BEFORE WE HAVE THE FOUNDATION on which to do so.

IMO, it will take a long time for a club like ours to move up even to a level where can consistently compete for a minor European competition. (It certainly won't happen in my lifetime as I'm a year older than Willo).

Edited by doombear (14 Feb 2023 1.51pm)

 

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MrRobbo Flag Chaldon 14 Feb 23 2.23pm Send a Private Message to MrRobbo Add MrRobbo as a friend

Originally posted by TheBigToePunt

I'd be very surprised if we went down this year. The 'games-played' figure keeps ticking away without the league position changing much. That's partly down to us, and partly down to others. We are playing poorly but picking up points along the way. One or two of the teams beneath us are getting their act together, but one or two are a mess, and not capable of the points-per-game ratio required to overtake us.

In the end, at some point or another, we will of course go down. We are not gravity-proof, and I don't understand the mindset that we should be 'kicking on' having 'established ourselves' in this league. We have a much bigger budget than most championship clubs but have never been, and never will be, big fish in the premier league pond.

Our income from the stadium is obviously fixed at a relatively low level in comparison to most of the clubs we compete with. Even the new stand will only bring us closer to our immediate financial rivals, rather than overtaking anyone.

In terms of prize money, the higher up the table we finish the more money we get, but that just means that every year at least half (usually two-thirds) of the clubs we compete with get more than us to spend next time-around. Basic maths tells you that it gets harder every year.

The financial figures are published openly. The FFP rules are complex but the gist is clear. I sometimes wonder if anyone even reads that stuff when I see so many comments moaning about 'investment' and the clubs being tight-fisted etc.

We are absolutely at the glass ceiling as a club. The academy and new stand are all about trying to find ways to stay where we are, but nobody can swim upstream forever.

When we do one day bite the bullet and go down, we should be a far, far healthier club than we were before, and far more likely to exist for future generations. Nobody running the club is incompetent, greedy, or lazy. Anyone with any knowledge of the club's history and the financial context knows that this is, unarguably, Palace at its very best. That is never going to be enough to consistently occupy the next level (European football). There are just too many bigger fish.

Relegation is an inevitable part of the life of every football club bar a very select few. A properly run club is one that can accommodate that reality, and it seems to me that ours can.

Edited by TheBigToePunt (14 Feb 2023 12.37pm)

Fantastic post.

Not always easy but worth trying to remember that Paris will always be looking at the short and long term future of the club. AS a fan its always easy to sit at home and spend somebody else's money


 

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ex hibitionist Flag Hastings 14 Feb 23 3.10pm Send a Private Message to ex hibitionist Add ex hibitionist as a friend

A three word response to a very sensible opening post: Brighton., Fulham, Brentford.

nuff said.

We need to move to being eternally 8th rather than 12th, with the odd year when top clubs have a blip and we have a good season where we gate crash Europe - that must be our aim - realistic but with a faint but real hope of getting into Europe - and by all means play the reserves in Europe if our squad is too thin. The new stand with the academy should bring us up to the Wolves, Leicester, Southampton, and dare I say it, Brighton level. Nobody has higher aspirations than that, even though Pulis pointed to the chance to grow the club - we can get 30k+ crowds regularly in the prem with the right stadium.

 

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Davepalace707 Flag Northumberland 14 Feb 23 3.16pm Send a Private Message to Davepalace707 Add Davepalace707 as a friend

Originally posted by ex hibitionist

A three word response to a very sensible opening post: Brighton., Fulham, Brentford.

nuff said.

We need to move to being eternally 8th rather than 12th, with the odd year when top clubs have a blip and we have a good season where we gate crash Europe - that must be our aim - realistic but with a faint but real hope of getting into Europe - and by all means play the reserves in Europe if our squad is too thin. The new stand with the academy should bring us up to the Wolves, Leicester, Southampton, and dare I say it, Brighton level. Nobody has higher aspirations than that, even though Pulis pointed to the chance to grow the club - we can get 30k+ crowds regularly in the prem with the right stadium.

Agree about the Weed, not sure about Fulham & Brentford sustaining top 8 for more than one season. Sheff Utd & Burnley did that and went down straight after.

 

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Willo Flag South coast - west of Brighton. 14 Feb 23 3.24pm Send a Private Message to Willo Add Willo as a friend

Originally posted by Davepalace707

Agree about the Weed, not sure about Fulham & Brentford sustaining top 8 for more than one season. Sheff Utd & Burnley did that and went down straight after.

Not that long ago, Burnley finished 7th in the PL.
In subsequent seasons they finished 15th, 10th,17th and the season after they were relegated.

 

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ASCPFC Flag Pro-Cathedral/caravan park 14 Feb 23 3.35pm Send a Private Message to ASCPFC Add ASCPFC as a friend

Originally posted by Willo

Not that long ago, Burnley finished 7th in the PL.
In subsequent seasons they finished 15th, 10th,17th and the season after they were relegated.

An interesting one for us as they didn't strengthen the squad adequately and had a few relatively old players.

 


Red and Blue Army!

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Den1923 Flag 14 Feb 23 4.24pm Send a Private Message to Den1923 Add Den1923 as a friend

I have been a CP supporter for longer than I can remember but suffice to say my first matches were in Third division (south) so I
have had my fair share the frustrations over the years. However I do get concerned that some fans on here think that sinking back to the championship is okay and unavoidable. There is absolutely no reason why this football club can not be mid table in the EPL with proper investors and good sound and effective management. It hurts to see club like BHA and Brentford that outperform us by having a good Chairperson, progressive and innovative investors and a sound and effective recruitment policy.

Sure SP saved the club and credit to him for that, but it is now the future that matters not the past and that sadly means that his time is up if this club isto progress. He needs to move on and allow a more skillful CEO to takeover with investors who want the club to flourish rather than the lame duck, American investors we currently have, two of whom want out and the other seems to be focussing his interest and energy in to French football.

Those who would be happy with championship football should look at the likes of Charlton/Derby/Bolton/Blackburn etc. Going down has a profound negative effective on income and means we would lose probably most of our best players in an instance as they will probably have ''get out clauses"" built in to their contracts should the unthinkable happen.

The competition to get out the championship is much harder than staying in EPL and often results in greater falls to the even lower divisions for some.

whilst I will always support CP, whatever division we are in for me the best times for this club in my lifetime are right now seeing the best teams coming to Selhurst park and I for one do not want to lose our EPL status, it is the future that matters for this club and there is no reason why that cannot be shaped in a good way with the right infrastructure in place.

 

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Yellow Card - User has been warned of conduct on the messageboards berlinpalace Flag berlin 14 Feb 23 4.37pm Send a Private Message to berlinpalace Add berlinpalace as a friend

A sudden outbreak of reasonable posts, had to check I was on the right board…

 

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Badger11 Flag Beckenham 14 Feb 23 4.51pm Send a Private Message to Badger11 Add Badger11 as a friend

Originally posted by Willo

Not that long ago, Burnley finished 7th in the PL.
In subsequent seasons they finished 15th, 10th,17th and the season after they were relegated.

I believe they call that circling the drain. I think we will stay up this year but without significant investment in the summer this could well be us next season.

 


One more point

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TheBigToePunt Flag 14 Feb 23 4.55pm Send a Private Message to TheBigToePunt Add TheBigToePunt as a friend

Originally posted by doombear


Excellent post TBTP. A sobering dose of realism about who we are and what we can realistically expect to achieve.

Yes a number of clubs have had standout one-off seasons in the PL and have usually suffered for it. One off success usually results in
- second season struggles as the club strains to play in Europe as well as domestically
- increased wages for existing players as well as for new players deemed necessary to provide for the extra burden of having a European campaign
- having to pay extra for new players so as to try and keep the success going

And no - the extra revenues gained by the higher finish and the European adventure won't cover those extra costs.

Think:
- Bolton
- Middlesbrough
- Stoke
- Portsmouth
- Birmingham
- Wigan
- Burnley

If ever we were to qualify for Europe whether through league position or a cup win, I just hope we will simply focus on maintaining our PL status and enjoying the European ride without throwing unnecessary funds at trying to move up to the next level BEFORE WE HAVE THE FOUNDATION on which to do so.

IMO, it will take a long time for a club like ours to move up even to a level where can consistently compete for a minor European competition. (It certainly won't happen in my lifetime as I'm a year older than Willo).

Edited by doombear (14 Feb 2023 1.51pm)

That's a critical point.

Lower league football (especially non-league) is full of cases where the team has a great year on the pitch, but the club 'can't afford to get promoted'. The costs involved turn what is supposed to be a reward into a punishment. Finishing 5th - 7th in the premier league might be the top-flight equivalent.

Positioning ourselves so we can aim for lower-european football every now and again is the obvious medium-to-long-term goal for us (and for at least ten or fifteen other clubs by the way), but as your list shows, achieving that ambition seems to make life harder rather than better.

It would be great if qualification for the Europa League (or whatever the UEFA cup is called this year) generated enough revenue to give participants a fighting chance of using it as a staging post from which to launch an eventual attempt at Champions League qualification.

Instead, the revenue doesn't even cover what is needed to compete in the competition itself, not if you're serious about it anyway, and certainly doesn't allow you to improve your team enough to push on to higher league positions. That's a big part of the 'glass-celing' problem clubs like ours face in this league.

The only way we could beat the system is if we got into the Europa League and went and won it, thereby getting into the Champions League. How realistic is that though?

Finally, whilst I'm being all gloomy, you could add Leicester City to your list of clubs to have tasted European football and found it didn't change the economic landscape. They won the bloody league, and the FA cup, played in all three European competitions in the last six years and still ended up needing to sell players and have £200m of debt excused by the owner. God knows how that debt-wiping is OK by FFP, but it certainly shows that as a club even with a nice new stadium and such breakthrough success, their place in the pecking order hasn't really changed.

Edited by TheBigToePunt (14 Feb 2023 4.55pm)

 

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dreamwaverider Flag London 14 Feb 23 5.31pm Send a Private Message to dreamwaverider Add dreamwaverider as a friend

Originally posted by TheBigToePunt

I'd be very surprised if we went down this year. The 'games-played' figure keeps ticking away without the league position changing much. That's partly down to us, and partly down to others. We are playing poorly but picking up points along the way. One or two of the teams beneath us are getting their act together, but one or two are a mess, and not capable of the points-per-game ratio required to overtake us.

In the end, at some point or another, we will of course go down. We are not gravity-proof, and I don't understand the mindset that we should be 'kicking on' having 'established ourselves' in this league. We have a much bigger budget than most championship clubs but have never been, and never will be, big fish in the premier league pond.

Our income from the stadium is obviously fixed at a relatively low level in comparison to most of the clubs we compete with. Even the new stand will only bring us closer to our immediate financial rivals, rather than overtaking anyone.

In terms of prize money, the higher up the table we finish the more money we get, but that just means that every year at least half (usually two-thirds) of the clubs we compete with get more than us to spend next time-around. Basic maths tells you that it gets harder every year.

The financial figures are published openly. The FFP rules are complex but the gist is clear. I sometimes wonder if anyone even reads that stuff when I see so many comments moaning about 'investment' and the clubs being tight-fisted etc.

We are absolutely at the glass ceiling as a club. The academy and new stand are all about trying to find ways to stay where we are, but nobody can swim upstream forever.

When we do one day bite the bullet and go down, we should be a far, far healthier club than we were before, and far more likely to exist for future generations. Nobody running the club is incompetent, greedy, or lazy. Anyone with any knowledge of the club's history and the financial context knows that this is, unarguably, Palace at its very best. That is never going to be enough to consistently occupy the next level (European football). There are just too many bigger fish.

Relegation is an inevitable part of the life of every football club bar a very select few. A properly run club is one that can accommodate that reality, and it seems to me that ours can.

Edited by TheBigToePunt (14 Feb 2023 12.37pm)


Ultimately it is all about ambition BTP.
Like most Palace fans I am lifelong and like you I believe we are at our best stage ever.

Where I differ is I believe with the correct planning, managing, investment and infrastructure we could join the heady heights of top ten English clubs and hold our position there.

I believe to achieve the uplift to do this, we would need firstly an ambitious investment vehicle with very deep pockets and desire to grow the club. Geographically we are very well located to build on our current position as south London’s top club. We have a huge catchment area which would soon deliver home gates of 40,000+ given the right location and success.
To do this we would definitely need a more prominent ‘central’ historic location than Selhurst. We would also need a brand new all singing and dancing 40,000 seater stadium. Our current home ground is one of only three grounds in the premier that is old school. We cannot expect to attract top global investors without a bigger plan.

If we could secure a heavy weight investor, we could possibly win an argument at Crystal Palace NSC.
Although the size of gate does not play a huge financial significance, to compete at top level you need to show 40,000 + to attract the credibility.
This route would ensure a long term plan to go big time.

The alternative is much as you have described. Stay as we are, accept the probability of at some stage going down, maybe back up but basically maintain our position as a good mid level club. If this is where we are heading then I would recommend we do not overstretch ourselves with the new stand. c. £150m cost as a loan would be a very big unnecessary burden for a club our size to carry. Down scale the size and the cost to something more manageable.
Who knows where football investment is heading. I see even Elon Musk is making noises. Whatever route we take it is important we protect the on going stability of the club.

 

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TheBigToePunt Flag 14 Feb 23 6.00pm Send a Private Message to TheBigToePunt Add TheBigToePunt as a friend

Originally posted by dreamwaverider


Ultimately it is all about ambition BTP.
Like most Palace fans I am lifelong and like you I believe we are at our best stage ever.

Where I differ is I believe with the correct planning, managing, investment and infrastructure we could join the heady heights of top ten English clubs and hold our position there.

I believe to achieve the uplift to do this, we would need firstly an ambitious investment vehicle with very deep pockets and desire to grow the club. Geographically we are very well located to build on our current position as south London’s top club. We have a huge catchment area which would soon deliver home gates of 40,000+ given the right location and success.
To do this we would definitely need a more prominent ‘central’ historic location than Selhurst. We would also need a brand new all singing and dancing 40,000 seater stadium. Our current home ground is one of only three grounds in the premier that is old school. We cannot expect to attract top global investors without a bigger plan.

If we could secure a heavy weight investor, we could possibly win an argument at Crystal Palace NSC.
Although the size of gate does not play a huge financial significance, to compete at top level you need to show 40,000 + to attract the credibility.
This route would ensure a long term plan to go big time.

The alternative is much as you have described. Stay as we are, accept the probability of at some stage going down, maybe back up but basically maintain our position as a good mid level club. If this is where we are heading then I would recommend we do not overstretch ourselves with the new stand. c. £150m cost as a loan would be a very big unnecessary burden for a club our size to carry. Down scale the size and the cost to something more manageable.
Who knows where football investment is heading. I see even Elon Musk is making noises. Whatever route we take it is important we protect the on going stability of the club.

A big, modern stadium would generate income (gate receipts) of course, but I'm not sure that using it to attract investment is quite the golden ticket it used to be.

Chelsea rebuilt Stamford Bridge in the Ken Bates / Matthew Harding era, and I'm sure the stadium helped to attract Abramovich. Similarly, I should think Man City's new stadium helped attract their current owners. Both clubs were then catapulted into the big time by lavish spending from those new owners, but Chelsea and City got in the big time before FFP.

Man City hate FFP because it stops them from sinking their owners money into the team, even when they have the money and want to spend it. That's why they are always trying to fiddle the numbers and might finally get punished for it.

Nowadays, FFP means a very rich investor could buy Palace and do the opposite of what happened at Chelsea and City - i.e they could spend their own money building a brand-new stadium, but not invest their own money in the team (at least not much, and not for long anyway).

Even Newcastle and Chelsea's new owners have spent big on players, but are having to spread their spending out over a long period to justify it, and cannot keep up that level of spending. They just aren't allowed.

The question then becomes: Would a 40,000 seater, modern stadium generate enough income to pay for a team that could win honours? I can't see how it would.

Gate receipts (even with corporate hospitality) are quite small against TV money generally, and especially so compared to Champions League TV money. We could have an 80,000-seater stadium and still not make the money that regular top-four sides make.

That's why Spurs haven't made the breakthrough to being a title-winning side even with their new ground. FFP has created a bit of a closed shop in that sense. It doesn't stop a mega-rich person from buying Palace, but it does stop them from buying us a dream-team.

Edited by TheBigToePunt (14 Feb 2023 6.04pm)

 

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