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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)


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JohnyBoy Flag 20 May 16 10.44am

Originally posted by Hoof Hearted

I said the majority of "Eminent Economists", not the IMF, BofE, Treasury and politicians Johnny.

It is relevant because those eminent economists are sticking their nibs in now and predicting the same Armageddon.

Just like betting on the Derby, people need to know the form of the runners and riders.

Well in my experience there were some economists who supported the euro, some against - but all of those in favour i knew said only if the 5 economic conditions were met. I myself said it would be ridiculous to even consider until the conditions were satisfied so would be supportive of the bofe until that changed. I would agree that there were more economists talking the virtues of the euro (although certainly not advocating) than there are talking the virtues of brexit (because economically speaking there arnt any)

 

Hoof Hearted 20 May 16 11.55am

Originally posted by JohnyBoy

Well in my experience there were some economists who supported the euro, some against - but all of those in favour i knew said only if the 5 economic conditions were met. I myself said it would be ridiculous to even consider until the conditions were satisfied so would be supportive of the bofe until that changed. I would agree that there were more economists talking the virtues of the euro (although certainly not advocating) than there are talking the virtues of brexit (because economically speaking there arnt any)

Okay Johnny....

I'm signing off to go watch the cricket mate.

Enjoy the weekend!

COYP

 

JohnyBoy Flag 20 May 16 12.25pm

Originally posted by Hoof Hearted

Okay Johnny....

I'm signing off to go watch the cricket mate.

Enjoy the weekend!

COYP

You are so right again Hoof, there are much more enjoyable pastimes than scribbling on the HOL, think i will switch it on myself...... enjoy the cricket!

 

johnfirewall Flag 20 May 16 2.07pm

Bill Gates is another giving his name to the remain campaign, which is convenient, as the EU have funded a lot of the causes also supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation.

 

nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 20 May 16 2.39pm

Originally posted by Hoof Hearted

I said the majority of "Eminent Economists", not the IMF, BofE, Treasury and politicians Johnny.

It is relevant because those eminent economists are sticking their nibs in now and predicting the same Armageddon.

Just like betting on the Derby, people need to know the form of the runners and riders.


Are these the same eminent economists who failed to see the financial crisis coming?

 

JohnyBoy Flag 20 May 16 4.05pm

Originally posted by nickgusset


Are these the same eminent economists who failed to see the financial crisis coming?

If you look this up Nick, i think you will find that the IMF, OECD and many economists (including The Economist) warned of a uk housing bubble in 2005 all the way up to the financial crisis in 2008. It also warned of an $800bn debt exposure in US subprime mortgages which was IMO the most scary thing of all. Things started to unravel in q42007 but Mervyn King (according to MPC member David Blanchflower) did not acknowledge there was a serious problem until the summer of 2008 i.e. not long before Lehmans collapse. When questioned about this by the select committee King said that he didnt want to talk the economy down or scare people into an economic decline, which means he was a soothsayer or a fireman telling everyone to go back into the building even though the fire was out of control. Personally i think he shouldve got the bullet but in the spirit of fairness he did an ok job alongside the fiscal policies of Gordon Brown to help us avoid a depression....but make no mistake, economists had clearly warned about the financial crisis atleast 2 years before it happened and i think the BofE has learned a very valuable lesson not to be a soothsayer when there is an economic bomb about to go off....hence Carneys announcement last week about the economic consequences of brexit.

 

DivingIsNotGood Flag se25 21 May 16 7.29am

Originally posted by JohnyBoy

If you look this up Nick, i think you will find that the IMF, OECD and many economists (including The Economist) warned of a uk housing bubble in 2005 all the way up to the financial crisis in 2008. It also warned of an 0bn debt exposure in US subprime mortgages which was IMO the most scary thing of all. Things started to unravel in q42007 but Mervyn King (according to MPC member David Blanchflower) did not acknowledge there was a serious problem until the summer of 2008 i.e. not long before Lehmans collapse. When questioned about this by the select committee King said that he didnt want to talk the economy down or scare people into an economic decline, which means he was a soothsayer or a fireman telling everyone to go back into the building even though the fire was out of control. Personally i think he shouldve got the bullet but in the spirit of fairness he did an ok job alongside the fiscal policies of Gordon Brown to help us avoid a depression....but make no mistake, economists had clearly warned about the financial crisis atleast 2 years before it happened and i think the BofE has learned a very valuable lesson not to be a soothsayer when there is an economic bomb about to go off....hence Carneys announcement last week about the economic consequences of brexit.

The Big Short - if you haven't seen it, it's a must [Link]

A house market crash is coming, nothing at all to do with EU referendum. The vote will be used as an excuse just like the sub-prime was blamed for the last recession but the truth is we are going to see a monumental housing crisis with many losing their homes!

 


VOTING OUT - Brexit will allow Britain to embrace the Commonwealth and be GREAT again

JohnyBoy Flag 21 May 16 8.00am

Originally posted by DivingIsNotGood

The Big Short - if you haven't seen it, it's a must [Link]

A house market crash is coming, nothing at all to do with EU referendum. The vote will be used as an excuse just like the sub-prime was blamed for the last recession but the truth is we are going to see a monumental housing crisis with many losing their homes!

I would agree with you on your first poin diving - the big short - best film i've seen this year, and the book is good too

 

-TUX- Flag Alphabettispaghetti 21 May 16 8.52am

Originally posted by DivingIsNotGood

The Big Short - if you haven't seen it, it's a must [Link]

A house market crash is coming, nothing at all to do with EU referendum. The vote will be used as an excuse just like the sub-prime was blamed for the last recession but the truth is we are going to see a monumental housing crisis with many losing their homes!

Agreed.
Yet another (convenient!) smokescreen for the ever manipulative 'financial system'.

 


Time to move forward together.

Hoof Hearted 21 May 16 9.20am

Amnesty for Today.......

Lets all get together....

Red and Blue
Young and Old
Boy and Girl
Left and Right
Out and In

COME ON YOU PALACE........

 

JohnyBoy Flag 22 May 16 4.20pm

Originally posted by Hoof Hearted

Amnesty for Today.......

Lets all get together....

Red and Blue
Young and Old
Boy and Girl
Left and Right
Out and In

COME ON YOU PALACE........

So is our great truce over yet? because i need a focus again after the disappointment of yesterday. I tried a couple of beers last night and this morning went to church for some divine intervention...but the hurt is still there. I reckon we need to start beating the cyber bejaysus out of each other again on the eu referendum so please cucking, hoof, danny, davemonkey...can u please shoot me down and spout some misleading bolash again to make us all feel better.
So just this morning the ceo of the NHS says we are better off remaining.....sainsburys ceo says prices in shops would rise in the event of brexit...and Dave tells us we have a veto (article 49) on new countries (e.g Turkey) joining ...sounds to me like the leave arguments have fallen apart

 

DivingIsNotGood Flag se25 24 May 16 11.26am

You should all watch this week's question time, Paul Mason economist launched a furious attack on the “crazed right-wing Conservatives" guess who came out on top?
[Link]

 


VOTING OUT - Brexit will allow Britain to embrace the Commonwealth and be GREAT again

Kermit8 Flag Hevon 24 May 16 1.48pm

Originally posted by DivingIsNotGood

You should all watch this week's question time, Paul Mason economist launched a furious attack on the “crazed right-wing Conservatives" guess who came out on top?
[Link]

Paul Mason is someone whom I have great regard and respect for. He is a leftie of course but if anyone could put even the slightest doubt on my 'in' vote it is him.

 


Big chest and massive boobs

[Link]


DivingIsNotGood Flag se25 24 May 16 2.54pm

It doesn't matter which way you vote it is rigged to stay IN, nothing you can do about it. 99% of voters could vote out yet it will a million percent come back as STAY IN has won.

Within two years of the vote, there will be a mass influx of immigrants.
Within ten years the elite families will move to the southern hemisphere.
Civil wars will outbreak across Europe.
The proxy war already happening will turn into WWIII around 2030.
Billions of humans will be wiped off the planet within 50 years.
This mass population cull will bring the global population down to 1 billion or less.

[Link]

 


VOTING OUT - Brexit will allow Britain to embrace the Commonwealth and be GREAT again

DivingIsNotGood Flag se25 24 May 16 3.09pm

Should also watch [Link] interesting part is at 54 mins

 


VOTING OUT - Brexit will allow Britain to embrace the Commonwealth and be GREAT again

JohnyBoy Flag 24 May 16 6.12pm

Originally posted by DivingIsNotGood

You should all watch this week's question time, Paul Mason economist launched a furious attack on the “crazed right-wing Conservatives" guess who came out on top?
[Link]

Thank you Diving, i also watched QT and found it quite interesting. Like Kermit, i also find Paul Mason a good read. He is an articulate political economist who challenges and puts forward alternative and often popularly appealing arguments. He did seem vague as to whether he would vote leave or brexit. His background however is far left. I dont know if he is still a trotskyist but he still states that capitalism is dead and talks of working co-operatives, full employment and welfare. These far left policies sound appealing until we remember that they were the basis of uk economic policies in the 50s and 60s when we didnt join the eu. By the early seventies the eu member economies were all growing much faster and indeed the German economy had surpassed us which to those who remembered the devastated german economy after ww2 was almost unbelievable. It was attributed to the Bundesbank laser like focus on inflation (having learned their lesson from the Weimer republic) and a liberal and open trade policy. The uk decided that they too wanted to join but at the same time the oil crisis started and trade unions in the uk started to demand 30+% wage increases. The uk was suddenly left holding a busted flush and barely a year after the last referendum (1975) duly applied to the IMF for a bailout, the biggest loan it had ever given -about 4billion i think. Yes we were the Greece of the 1970s!!! Would you believe that!! Before anyone thinks i am a tory (i'm actually politically non-alligned) uk economic policy then shifted to targeting inflation and expenditure whilst pursuing a liberal trade policy within the EEC, i.e. based on the successful German model. But then Thatcher got elected and pursued monetarism using Milton Friedman as a guiding light. She was supported by another very prominent uk economist called Patrick Minford (who also now wants to vote leave) who was similarly articulate and populist but from a right/far right perspective. He had done some very good work on rational expectations theory and sure enough the economy started to boom in the early 80s. However, despite being helped in no small measure by north sea oil revenues, the economy eventually nosedived. Inflation boomed, we saw unemployment (3.5m) like we had never known, interest rates at 12-14% and record numbers of house reposessions, property market declines etc. Monetarism or Thatcherism was seen to have created monetary illusion or a false economy based on interest rate and money supply manipulation and eventually the bubble burst.
Thankfully now it is rejected by mainstream conservatism and i think all of the tory cabinet (except maybe John Whittingdale) do not ascribe to it. Luckily, since Thatherism we have been fortunate with our economic policies (both labour and tory and a bit of lib dem) but at the core of it lies a liberal and open trading policy with the eu, and isolationism would IMO make the uk economy suffer.

 

DivingIsNotGood Flag se25 24 May 16 6.18pm

Paul Mason could have a thread of his own [Link]

 


VOTING OUT - Brexit will allow Britain to embrace the Commonwealth and be GREAT again

Sportyteacher Flag London 24 May 16 6.49pm

Originally posted by JohnyBoy

Thank you Diving, i also watched QT and found it quite interesting. Like Kermit, i also find Paul Mason a good read. He is an articulate political economist who challenges and puts forward alternative and often popularly appealing arguments. He did seem vague as to whether he would vote leave or brexit. His background however is far left. I dont know if he is still a trotskyist but he still states that capitalism is dead and talks of working co-operatives, full employment and welfare. These far left policies sound appealing until we remember that they were the basis of uk economic policies in the 50s and 60s when we didnt join the eu. By the early seventies the eu member economies were all growing much faster and indeed the German economy had surpassed us which to those who remembered the devastated german economy after ww2 was almost unbelievable. It was attributed to the Bundesbank laser like focus on inflation (having learned their lesson from the Weimer republic) and a liberal and open trade policy. The uk decided that they too wanted to join but at the same time the oil crisis started and trade unions in the uk started to demand 30+% wage increases. The uk was suddenly left holding a busted flush and barely a year after the last referendum (1975) duly applied to the IMF for a bailout, the biggest loan it had ever given -about 4billion i think. Yes we were the Greece of the 1970s!!! Would you believe that!! Before anyone thinks i am a tory (i'm actually politically non-alligned) uk economic policy then shifted to targeting inflation and expenditure whilst pursuing a liberal trade policy within the EEC, i.e. based on the successful German model. But then Thatcher got elected and pursued monetarism using Milton Friedman as a guiding light. She was supported by another very prominent uk economist called Patrick Minford (who also now wants to vote leave) who was similarly articulate and populist but from a right/far right perspective. He had done some very good work on rational expectations theory and sure enough the economy started to boom in the early 80s. However, despite being helped in no small measure by north sea oil revenues, the economy eventually nosedived. Inflation boomed, we saw unemployment (3.5m) like we had never known, interest rates at 12-14% and record numbers of house reposessions, property market declines etc. Monetarism or Thatcherism was seen to have created monetary illusion or a false economy based on interest rate and money supply manipulation and eventually the bubble burst.
Thankfully now it is rejected by mainstream conservatism and i think all of the tory cabinet (except maybe John Whittingdale) do not ascribe to it. Luckily, since Thatcherism we have been fortunate with our economic policies (both labour and tory and a bit of lib dem) but at the core of it lies a liberal and open trading policy with the eu, and isolationism would IMO make the uk economy suffer.


Johnny Boy: This is really good analysis. For once, it is refreshing and insightful to read a comment laced with fact and experience. I agree with you that an isolationist approach by The UK would prove to be damaging however EU reform is desperately required and that is best worked upon from functioning through membership.

I also believe that both campaigning sides have fought the most appalling campaign preying upon the naivety and /or indifference of The Uk Electorate. Has UK Politics ever been plumbed to such depths before by way of blatant lying or pure exaggeration re: such an important issue? I also believe that if The Opposition weren't so riddled with inadequacies then our Government would find itself fatally wounded and be forced to call for a General Election - how on earth can The Conservative BREXIT MPs be trusted to work for Cameron's side again or vice versa?

 

JohnyBoy Flag 24 May 16 7.04pm

Originally posted by Sportyteacher


Johnny Boy: This is really good analysis. For once, it is refreshing and insightful to read a comment laced with fact and experience. I agree with you that an isolationist approach by The UK would prove to be damaging however EU reform is desperately required and that is best worked upon from functioning through membership.

I also believe that both campaigning sides have fought the most appalling campaign preying upon the naivety and /or indifference of The Uk Electorate. Has UK Politics ever been plumbed to such depths before by way of blatant lying or pure exaggeration re: such an important issue? I also believe that if The Opposition weren't so riddled with inadequacies then our Government would find itself fatally wounded and be forced to call for a General Election - how on earth can The Conservative BREXIT MPs be trusted to work for Cameron's side again or vice versa?

Thank you Sporty and i couldnt agree more with your comments. I also think most contributors (incl leading brexiters like Hoof & cucking) have said as much on this thread and would agree that its a shame that the debate has been reduced to scaremongering, exaggeration and manipulation on both sides....but as i say to my kids "they mustnt lie or when they grow up they will become politicians!" And to your point: we dont want a general election now i aldo agree: because the tories are divided either way, most labour mps dont want their leader and the lib dems are on the canvas from the last election. It is refreshing to hear the greens and SNP pursuing a more positive approach but i suppose the realities of modern day sensationalist media means the politicians have to scaremonger to a certain extent or they will lose....its up to us voters to sift through the bull$hit i think.

 

DivingIsNotGood Flag se25 24 May 16 10.14pm

You do realise politicians DO NOT LIE, you need to understand something, they are not human, politicians have nothing but stuffing inside of them, they are just controlled by the hidden oligarchs, their masters. The Illuminati / elite families that rule this crazy world.

Until you grasp and fully understand this concept, it's pointless continuing worrying about the fine detail(s).

Is unfolding right in front of each and every one of you but most are sleeping: New World Order.

-One World Government
-One World Religion
-One World Military
-One World Currency
-DNA Database of all people
-Cashless Society
-Totalitarianism

 


VOTING OUT - Brexit will allow Britain to embrace the Commonwealth and be GREAT again

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