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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)


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big_palace_fan Flag 25 May 16 12.08am

I cant wait until remain win

 

big_palace_fan Flag 25 May 16 12.12am

On a wider point, anyone who's studied economics 101 can tell you on average tarriffs are bad for welfare

Its a shame the default isn;t free trade and we actually have to go out and make trade deals

 

lindzay Flag 25 May 16 1.21am

Boils down to who controls the money and makes the laws......want the Uk out of the EU and more like the USA ,vote out; and Tory in ...

 

becky Flag over the moon 25 May 16 8.01am

Just a couple of notes for historical accuracy:

Originally posted by JohnyBoy

Thank you Diving, i also watched QT and found it quite interesting. Like Kermit, i also find Paul Mason a good read. He is an articulate political economist who challenges and puts forward alternative and often popularly appealing arguments. He did seem vague as to whether he would vote leave or brexit. His background however is far left. I dont know if he is still a trotskyist but he still states that capitalism is dead and talks of working co-operatives, full employment and welfare. These far left policies sound appealing until we remember that they were the basis of uk economic policies in the 50s and 60s when we didnt join the eu.

It wasn't that we didn't join the eu -De Galle vetoed our membership on several occasions.

By the early seventies the eu member economies were all growing much faster and indeed the German economy had surpassed us which to those who remembered the devastated german economy after ww2 was almost unbelievable. It was attributed to the Bundesbank laser like focus on inflation (having learned their lesson from the Weimer republic) and a liberal and open trade policy.


Let us not forget the fact that Germany made no financial reparations for WWII, and had defaulted on it's payment from WWI, whilst Britain was repaying loans from the USA and Canada, and interest (5%) on Gilts issued to raise funds for WWI (including also some incorporated from the Boer and Crimean wars). So, not just the Budesbank and it's laser.....

The uk decided that they too wanted to join but at the same time the oil crisis started and trade unions in the uk started to demand 30+% wage increases. The uk was suddenly left holding a busted flush and barely a year after the last referendum (1975) duly applied to the IMF for a bailout, the biggest loan it had ever given -about 4billion i think. Yes we were the Greece of the 1970s!!! Would you believe that!! Before anyone thinks i am a tory (i'm actually politically non-alligned) uk economic policy then shifted to targeting inflation and expenditure whilst pursuing a liberal trade policy within the EEC, i.e. based on the successful German model. But then Thatcher got elected and pursued monetarism using Milton Friedman as a guiding light. She was supported by another very prominent uk economist called Patrick Minford (who also now wants to vote leave) who was similarly articulate and populist but from a right/far right perspective. He had done some very good work on rational expectations theory and sure enough the economy started to boom in the early 80s. However, despite being helped in no small measure by north sea oil revenues, the economy eventually nosedived. Inflation boomed, we saw unemployment (3.5m) like we had never known, interest rates at 12-14% and record numbers of house reposessions, property market declines etc. Monetarism or Thatcherism was seen to have created monetary illusion or a false economy based on interest rate and money supply manipulation and eventually the bubble burst.
Thankfully now it is rejected by mainstream conservatism and i think all of the tory cabinet (except maybe John Whittingdale) do not ascribe to it. Luckily, since Thatherism we have been fortunate with our economic policies (both labour and tory and a bit of lib dem) but at the core of it lies a liberal and open trading policy with the eu, and isolationism would IMO make the uk economy suffer.

 


A stairway to Heaven and a Highway to Hell give some indication of expected traffic numbers

Willo Flag South coast - west of Brighton. 25 May 16 8.14am

Originally posted by big_palace_fan

I cant wait until remain win

And be part of an unaccountable, unelected and undemocratic institution that is unfit for purpose with a delusion that 28 nation states can be united under a single flag.

 

Kermit8 Flag Hevon 25 May 16 8.19am

Originally posted by Willo

And be part of an unaccountable, unelected and undemocratic institution that is unfit for purpose with a delusion that 28 nation states can be united under a single flag.


It was your lot that signed us up to the whole shebang and now you want 'Out' even though you knew full well what you were getting into. Thanks again Tories.

 


Big chest and massive boobs

[Link]


Willo Flag South coast - west of Brighton. 25 May 16 8.27am

Originally posted by Kermit8


It was your lot that signed us up to the whole shebang and now you want 'Out' even though you knew full well what you were getting into. Thanks again Tories.

You're not referring back to the 70s with Ted Heath and the EEC which is different from the current EU ?

And the EU started off with 9 members, now it has 28 and of course the Euro.

Yes I want "Out" but official Government policy is "IN" as is the policy of Labour.

 

JohnyBoy Flag 25 May 16 8.56am

Originally posted by becky

Just a couple of notes for historical accuracy:

To be accurate Becky, i think you will find that Britain was invited to join in 1959 but the then Atlee government decided not to, so the original 6 members (w.germany, france, netherlands, italy, belgium and luxembourg) decided to go it alone. At the time, distrust and bitterness towards Germany was cited and an isolationist trade policy was preferred. You are correct that DeGaulle (of all people) then vetoed Britains application to join in the 60s until George Pompidou removed the French veto allowing Britain to join in the early 70s.
Wrt reparations, under the Potsdam agreement Germany was required to pay reparations and did so to Greece, Poland and a few others but as part of the Marshall plan Britain dropped its claim for reparations. By 1976 it was however w.Germany and the US who funded Britains loan as part of the imf bailout.

 

johnfirewall Flag 25 May 16 9.38am

Originally posted by Kermit8


It was your lot that signed us up to the whole shebang and now you want 'Out' even though you knew full well what you were getting into. Thanks again Tories.

They signed up to a trade agreement.

I've literally no idea how it became what it is now.

 

Kermit8 Flag Hevon 25 May 16 10.07am

Originally posted by johnfirewall

They signed up to a trade agreement.

I've literally no idea how it became what it is now.

The Maastricht Treaty (formally, the Treaty on European Union or TEU) undertaken to integrate Europe was signed on 7 February 1992 under a Tory Government.

 


Big chest and massive boobs

[Link]


Kermit8 Flag Hevon 25 May 16 10.11am

Originally posted by Willo

You're not referring back to the 70s with Ted Heath and the EEC which is different from the current EU ?

And the EU started off with 9 members, now it has 28 and of course the Euro.

Yes I want "Out" but official Government policy is "IN" as is the policy of Labour.

I am more referring to The Maastricht Treaty to integrate Europe which was signed on 7 February 1992 by the British Government. Wasn't that the same year there was a General Election? Who did you vote for again ?

 


Big chest and massive boobs

[Link]


Willo Flag South coast - west of Brighton. 25 May 16 10.12am

Originally posted by Kermit8

The Maastricht Treaty (formally, the Treaty on European Union or TEU) undertaken to integrate Europe was signed on 7 February 1992 under a Tory Government.

My beloved 'Margaret Thatcher' was not best pleased, indeed we had all those Tory "Maastricht Rebels" and all the problems encountered by John Major.This is history we have to deal with the present.

 

johnfirewall Flag 25 May 16 10.54am

History doesn't count in Brown's desecration of the treasury so you can drop this one out.

 

Willo Flag South coast - west of Brighton. 25 May 16 11.00am

Originally posted by johnfirewall

History doesn't count in Brown's desecration of the treasury so you can drop this one out.

My point was that we can hark back to the EEC and 'Maastricht' etc but we have to consider the current EU with all it's failings.The debate is about the present not the past.

 

Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 25 May 16 11.09am

Originally posted by DivingIsNotGood

You should all watch this week's question time, Paul Mason economist launched a furious attack on the “crazed right-wing Conservatives" guess who came out on top?
[Link]

You haven't mentioned Paul Mason wants out of the EU, it has serious issues and catastrophe is around the corner. What he said was he DID WANT A UK EU EXIT but didn't want a UK exit led by the likes of further right of centre Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. They turn his skin, but not in those words, and he MIGHT vote IN just because of this. I can't rememeber what he said about BJ and MG but employees' rights was probably one. I'll watch it again later but he deinitely wanted out but MIGHT vote in because of the tories. Dimbleby was amazed by this.

I think he may have said he'd wait for another referendum under different govt (long wait there then) or the break up of the EU, which he did say was inevitable.

So a respected economist does want out. He did say however that it had nothing to do with immigration and he was happy with it continuing as it is. You might do if you experience the positives only or you're stubborn enough.

Edited by Rudi Hedman (25 May 2016 11.16am)

 


COYP

Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 25 May 16 11.14am

Maybe you should watch Martin Lewis on The Agenda a few weeks back on ITV. He played down all the hysteria and said on a personal level you should look how much averse you are to risk. Very averse = in. Used to risk = out. A lot of the scaremongering is nonsense and the economy will adapt with some shocks along the way.

I'm tired of waking up to more BS from completely negative assumptions applied to formulae designed to display the worst possible scenario such as the housing market due to fall by 18% when it's calculated to fall anyway and losses of jobs that don't just depend on the EU and won't be affected for 2 years and if immigration is limited, then that's less labour for the less jobs.

 


COYP

Sportyteacher Flag London 25 May 16 11.16am

Originally posted by johnfirewall

History doesn't count in Brown's desecration of the treasury so you can drop this one out.

I wonder where it all went and who took receipt of it all?

[Link]

 

npn Flag Crowborough 25 May 16 11.17am

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

You haven't mentioned Paul Mason wants out of the EU, it has serious issues and catastrophe is around the corner. What he said was he DID WANT A UK EU EXIT but didn't want a UK exit led by the likes of further right of centre Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. They turn his skin, but not in those words, and he MIGHT vote IN just because of this. I can't rememeber what he said about BJ and MG but employees' rights was probably one. I'll watch it again later but he deinitely wanted out but MIGHT vote in because of the tories. Dimbleby was amazed by this.

I think he may have said he'd wait for another referendum under different govt (long wait there then) or the break up of the EU, which he did say was inevitable.

So a respected economist does want out. He did say however that it had nothing to do with immigration and he was happy with it continuing as it is.

Edited by Rudi Hedman (25 May 2016 11.15am)

Yes, I listened to that with some incredulity. A 'respected' economist was basically saying he wants out but won't vote for it because some of the people who also want out, he doesn't like.

Odd in the extreme, and seemed not a little childish

 

Cucking Funt Flag Clapham on the Back 25 May 16 12.04pm

Originally posted by JohnyBoy

To be accurate Becky, i think you will find that Britain was invited to join in 1959 but the then Atlee government decided not to, so the original 6 members (w.germany, france, netherlands, italy, belgium and luxembourg) decided to go it alone. At the time, distrust and bitterness towards Germany was cited and an isolationist trade policy was preferred. You are correct that DeGaulle (of all people) then vetoed Britains application to join in the 60s until George Pompidou removed the French veto allowing Britain to join in the early 70s.
Wrt reparations, under the Potsdam agreement Germany was required to pay reparations and did so to Greece, Poland and a few others but as part of the Marshall plan Britain dropped its claim for reparations. By 1976 it was however w.Germany and the US who funded Britains loan as part of the imf bailout.

Atlee wasn't PM in 1959, it was MacMillan.

 


Wife beating may be socially acceptable in Sheffield, but it is a different matter in Cheltenham

JohnyBoy Flag 25 May 16 12.22pm

Originally posted by Cucking Funt

Atlee wasn't PM in 1959, it was MacMillan.

Indeed you are correct Cucking, Atlee was the PM when it all started with the european coal commission and he was against joining. It was 1959/1960 that macmillan changed tack and started looking at joining, officially applying in about 1962/63.

 

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