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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)


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jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 26 May 16 12.00pm

Originally posted by johnfirewall

And a great policy that is.

[Link]

Surely we'd be better of ensuring they get a better price for their produce. Why not subsidise the produce directly if it's such an unprofitable business?

p.s. there was a similar article in the Guardian but the author goes off on a bit of a tangent about corn being the problem.

Because ultimately it may mean raising tax rather than cutting spending, and its the latter than UK governments prefer.

Basically, the problem the UK has had pretty much for 30-35 years, is that government isn't actually interested in the best interests of the UK and its citizens, its more interested in winning elections. I'd argue that since the 70s, that governments have been more interested in popularity and appealing to lobby groups and interests, than the interests of the UK and its citizens.

 


"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug"
[Link]

DivingIsNotGood Flag se25 26 May 16 12.03pm

Originally posted by jamiemartin721

I'd hope so, but its not actually as clear cut as that, because it would require the government in question to pursue an anti-corporate agenda in addition to leaving the EU. The problem we, citizens of the UK, face is that as far as government and corporate interests are concerned, high working migration is a profitable business (the state generates extra revenue on a migrant workers compared to a state worker, over their working life, and corporate interests get to keep wages low).

Just leaving the EU isn't enough, because neither Labour nor the Conservatives have shown any real desire to change this (in fact for the most part both parties are pro-EU).

The downside, if the UK leaves the EU, possibly the only party that has broached this subject (and I don't trust them on it either) is UKIP. With the UK outside of the EU, UKIP loses its core philosophical basis.

Problem as well, is that are its core, UKIP is a 'Conservative Splinter Party', and very pro-Corporate interest. Likely they'd control migration more, but you'd still see high levels of cheap imported labour.

Ending working migration towards the interests of British Citizens and workers, is a major issue for any party as it will have very serious economic knock on effects (higher cost of living as wage increases are passed to the consumer, potential off shoring, a housing crash which would be disastrous for many UKIP supporters who have 'bought to let*'.

* Arguably removing that surplus of population produced by migration from the economy, will gut the rental markets, and consequently the housing market. Good news, if you don't own a house or paid off your mortgage, but otherwise its going to create a lot of negative equity and forclosure.

JamieMartin you are so SPOT ON the money and SO clued up it's unreal! That is the best post on this entire thread. You are clearly a leader of some degree and a forward thinker. Need more like you on here.


Edited by DivingIsNotGood (26 May 2016 12.03pm)

 


VOTING OUT - Brexit will allow Britain to embrace the Commonwealth and be GREAT again

dannyh Flag wherever I lay my hat....... 26 May 16 12.13pm

Originally posted by DivingIsNotGood

JamieMartin you are so SPOT ON the money and SO clued up it's unreal! That is the best post on this entire thread. You are clearly a leader of some degree and a forward thinker. Need more like you on here.


Edited by DivingIsNotGood (26 May 2016 12.03pm)

I see Jamie's mum has joined us on the HOL

 


"It's not the bullet that's got my name on it that concerns me; it's all them other ones flyin' around marked 'To Whom It May Concern.'"

DivingIsNotGood Flag se25 26 May 16 12.58pm

Originally posted by dannyh

I see Jamie's mum has joined us on the HOL

Actually quite funny LOL

 


VOTING OUT - Brexit will allow Britain to embrace the Commonwealth and be GREAT again

Cucking Funt Flag Clapham on the Back 26 May 16 12.59pm

Originally posted by dannyh

I see Jamie's mum has joined us on the HOL

Jamie doesn't have a mother. He was fashioned by satan from clay and virgin's blood.

 


Wife beating may be socially acceptable in Sheffield, but it is a different matter in Cheltenham

jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 26 May 16 1.04pm

Originally posted by Cucking Funt

Jamie doesn't have a mother. He was fashioned by satan from clay and virgin's blood.

That's about right.

 


"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug"
[Link]

dannyh Flag wherever I lay my hat....... 26 May 16 1.21pm

Originally posted by jamiemartin721

That's about right.

I would've said the blood of Peter Sutcliffe, the skin of Myra Hindley and the brain of Doctor Crippin

 


"It's not the bullet that's got my name on it that concerns me; it's all them other ones flyin' around marked 'To Whom It May Concern.'"

JohnyBoy Flag 26 May 16 1.53pm

Originally posted by Hoof Hearted

Actually I lied because I will post one further piece of information about this campaign and it is a FACT, not conjecture!

[Link]

Net migration to UK rises to 333,000 according to this BBC report.

This headline does more damage to Dave (Mr Potato Head) Cameron's Remain campaign than any threat regarding the economy, jobs or anything else he can dream up.

Undecided voters will be galvanised into joining Out/Leave on hearing this piece of factual news as opposed to dodgy biased guesstimates.

Welcome back Hoof, your observations are always appreciated. I notice that yet again Nigel Farage disputes the figures, complaining that they should be much higher. But then again he disputes all of the data being published from independent bodies.
But what we now know about immigration, does the circa 5% increase in the net migration figure mean that the £2.5 billion NET contribution from the last set of figures also go up 5%. Honest answer:probably not because the Net migration figure only went up because fewer people left the uk. But if that net contribution of £2.5b was pro-rated into public expenditure, does that mean an extra £500m windfall for uk pensions? And a £400m additional windfall for the NHS?
The figures also show that there were 28.2m BRITISH NATIONALS employed in the uk. Thats a record isnt it? Would this figure drop in the short term by circa 800,000 in the event of brexit? The UK economy is at or near full employment (about 5.3% which is good right?) but we have a skills shortage and the numbers of graduates/doctors/nurses etc are not sufficient to plug the gap. So do we let the quality of our public services suffer (according to the chief exec 9f the NHS) not only by reduced funding but also by not having enough qualified professionals to run them properly?
I know...its not about them (i.e. the professional), its about the rest of the unskilled migrants who simultaneously manage to claim ALL of our benefits and take ALL of 'our' jobs at the same time .... Hmmm... doesnt really sound plausible TBH.....Even though the actual figures suggest that only 7% of european migrants claimed benefits (compared to 15% of British nationals) and that British nationals occupy 19 out 20 jobs in the uk....but as one wise commentator said "if somebody probably from a poorer country, educated in a different language, a different culture and with little or no bargaining power manages to get a job ahead of you, then you must be pretty s#it at your job."

 

gambler Flag Kent 26 May 16 1.56pm

Out

 

dannyh Flag wherever I lay my hat....... 26 May 16 2.09pm

Originally posted by JohnyBoy

Welcome back Hoof, your observations are always appreciated. I notice that yet again Nigel Farage disputes the figures, complaining that they should be much higher. But then again he disputes all of the data being published from independent bodies.
But what we now know about immigration, does the circa 5% increase in the net migration figure mean that the £2.5 billion NET contribution from the last set of figures also go up 5%. Honest answer:probably not because the Net migration figure only went up because fewer people left the uk. But if that net contribution of £2.5b was pro-rated into public expenditure, does that mean an extra £500m windfall for uk pensions? And a £400m additional windfall for the NHS?
The figures also show that there were 28.2m BRITISH NATIONALS employed in the uk. Thats a record isnt it? Would this figure drop in the short term by circa 800,000 in the event of brexit? The UK economy is at or near full employment (about 5.3% which is good right?) but we have a skills shortage and the numbers of graduates/doctors/nurses etc are not sufficient to plug the gap. So do we let the quality of our public services suffer (according to the chief exec 9f the NHS) not only by reduced funding but also by not having enough qualified professionals to run them properly?
I know...its not about them (i.e. the professional), its about the rest of the unskilled migrants who simultaneously manage to claim ALL of our benefits and take ALL of 'our' jobs at the same time .... Hmmm... doesnt really sound plausible TBH.....Even though the actual figures suggest that only 7% of european migrants claimed benefits (compared to 15% of British nationals) and that British nationals occupy 19 out 20 jobs in the uk....but as one wise commentator said "if somebody probably from a poorer country, educated in a different language, a different culture and with little or no bargaining power manages to get a job ahead of you, then you must be pretty s#it at your job."

All very impressive figures no doubt.

However the way it is at the minute, our minimum wage is 10 times what it is in Romania, Poland etc etc, so what we have is an influx of eatern Europes poorer nations flooding the cheap labour Market, whats more they can just waltz over whenever they please.

And yet......a heavily qualified doctor from say India or even the USA has to jump through so many hoops just to get here.

There are more countires out of the EU than in it and they seem to be trading just fine, with no sign of the Four Horseman of the Apocalypse, any where in sight.

I would summarise the EU thus:

You can drive a car with your feet if you want to.
Just because you can, doesn't make it a good f***in idea.

 


"It's not the bullet that's got my name on it that concerns me; it's all them other ones flyin' around marked 'To Whom It May Concern.'"

crystal balls Flag The Garden of Earthly Delights 26 May 16 2.38pm

Remain moved from 1/4 to 1/6.

[Link]

 


I used to be immortal

JohnyBoy Flag 26 May 16 2.52pm

Originally posted by dannyh

All very impressive figures no doubt.

However the way it is at the minute, our minimum wage is 10 times what it is in Romania, Poland etc etc, so what we have is an influx of eatern Europes poorer nations flooding the cheap labour Market, whats more they can just waltz over whenever they please.

And yet......a heavily qualified doctor from say India or even the USA has to jump through so many hoops just to get here.

There are more countires out of the EU than in it and they seem to be trading just fine, with no sign of the Four Horseman of the Apocalypse, any where in sight.

I would summarise the EU thus:

You can drive a car with your feet if you want to.
Just because you can, doesn't make it a good f***in idea.

Danny, i dont think there will be an apocolypse in the event of brexit, nor a war nor any other major catastrophe but i do think its fair to assume that we would be worse off, cant say exactly by how much, but definitely worse off. I also think our trading tariffs i.e. free at the moment, wont be as good. Again nobody can say for certain by how much, but it wont be as good as what they are....and similar for the Nhs, employment, security, etc etc...we would be worse off but nobody knows by exactly how much.
Wrt poland and romania. Its also 10 times cheaper to rent a house (probably 20x), have a meal, get a taxi etc....but if they want to take a risk and learn a different language, culture and enter a job market that is stacked in favour of BRITISH nationals, so will likely be limited to menial jobs, then they are welcome and the figures show they are NET CONTRIBUTORS.
As for professionals from India, US etc...we are already plugging the skills gap from these countries. I know many professionals (even in areas like finance) that have come over from India S.africa etc who have settled in the uk and similarly contribute....one young indian doctor even saved my dads life...but the reality is that many on the out campaign are against immigration per se i.e. not just the eu and would similarly balk at the idea that we took in immigrants from India, pakistan etc. Instead of those from the eu.
And the world is demographically been divided into trading blocks whether we like it or not. The US, Japan, China, India, the EU, are the power brokers followed by Brazil&Russia and Africa. Isolationism in the global economy is just foolish, and is backed up by all independent forecasts.

 

Y Ddraig Goch Flag In The Crowd 26 May 16 3.00pm

In the grand scheme of things it will in all likelihood make diddly squat difference whether we stay or go.

Although a few political careers may be consigned to the dustbin.

 


the dignified don't even enter in the game

Hoof Hearted 26 May 16 3.42pm

One observation.... since our cup final defeat, the debate on here is more friendly, sensible and gentlemanly.

Bravo every one and may the best team win!

 

johnfirewall Flag 26 May 16 4.10pm

Originally posted by JohnyBoy


i do think its fair to assume that we would be worse off, cant say exactly by how much

And the world is demographically been divided into trading blocks whether we like it or not. The US, Japan, China, India, the EU, are the power brokers followed by Brazil&Russia and Africa. Isolationism in the global economy is just foolish, and is backed up by all independent forecasts.

Why are you quoting the governments guesswork then?

Who exactly are we isolating ourselves from? Of course we have to negotiate new deals but what happen in the meantime, do we not import / export anything overseas?

 

slubglurge Flag welling 26 May 16 4.20pm

No one has to convince me; its out all the way. 10 years ago my wifes company offered all the staff a redundacy payment to leave. My wife and two friends stayed, they then refilled the posts with Lithuanians who had just joined the EU. They haven't had a payrise since

 

JohnyBoy Flag 26 May 16 4.35pm

Originally posted by johnfirewall

Why are you quoting the governments guesswork then?

Who exactly are we isolating ourselves from? Of course we have to negotiate new deals but what happen in the meantime, do we not import / export anything overseas?

The 'governments guesswork' i have used is based on independent forecasts from the IMF, OECD, the treasury, IFS, the world bank and over 90% of economists who currently predict that the economy would be hit by between 1.5% - 9.5%. My own judgement would be somewhere in the middle, so like everyone else (atleast with any credibility) i would say that i dont know exactly by how much we would be worse off but almosy certainly still worse off.
You may prefer to use your own economic models, that is your right, but to dismiss all of the forecasts we have been given is perhaps naive.
Isolationism would imply that trading tariffs (exact % TBD) would be introduced and it is likely from many studies on trade tarrifs and protectionism that we would not get as good a deal as could be negotiated by the eu, as they would insert MFN (most favoured nation) clauses into their agreements which means that if say the US did a trade deal on bananas or whatever with the eu, they would be prevented to do a better deal with another trading block or country. The tariffs we would incur would need to be reciprocated to defend our domestic market but the sum of the parts suggest both parties would be worse off.

 

-TUX- Flag Alphabettispaghetti 26 May 16 5.23pm

Originally posted by Y Ddraig Goch

In the grand scheme of things it will in all likelihood make diddly squat difference whether we stay or go.

Although a few political careers may be consigned to the dustbin.

Is the correct answer.

 


Time to move forward together.

Sportyteacher Flag London 27 May 16 8.53am

Originally posted by Kermit8

Latest Mori poll: 1,000 randomly asked

Remain a member of the European Union: 48%

Leave the European Union: 35%

Undecided: 14%

Would not vote:3%

I make that 65% idiots/potential idiots according to monkeychops and 35% the enlightened, sensible brave new world few also according to monkeychops.


[Link]

Edited by Kermit8 (18 May 2016 10.05pm)[/quote

I, for one, can't wait for this EU referendum to get out of the way. Despite the importance and ramifications of the vote, this is ONE subject for debate that has clearly limited Government resources from getting on with its main day-to-day work, and with a LONG summer recess just around the corner.

No wonder very little gets achieved within this country e.g. maintenance /modernisation of infrastructure.

 

Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 27 May 16 10.28am

Originally posted by JohnyBoy

I have to say this one made me laugh or cry maybe, but perhaps we should pay attention to our mums rather than angry white disestablishment male types who see no value in education who, if they manage to get their misinformation believed would make us all as miserable as them....but anti-intellectualism really isnt that cool is it when you consider what the leave vote really is about
Higher enemployment
Higher inflation
Higher interest rates
Falling property prices
Reduced funding for public services (including NHS, pensions, education, defence, welfare and transport)
We would lose the right to live, work and retire abroad (except if you are rich enough)
Increased risk of terrorism (according to MI6)
Reduced investment/jobs from foreign companies (e.g what Bloomberg and Fujitsu have said this morning.)
Reduced workers rights e.g. paternity leave
£4300 worse off per household (assuming average 2 adult family earning £23.5k pa)
Customs duties re-introduced
Co-ordinated defence/peace policy which has helped Europe achieve the longest period of peace since roman times.
Higher debt servicing costs (currently 6% of public spending likely rising to 9-10%)
Co-ordinated environmental policy (pollution has no boundaries)
A say in the rules and regulations we would still have to comply with if we want to continue to trade with europe.
Trade tarrifs re-introduced (probably at WTO levels 15-20%)
Against the advice of all major independent institutions (imf, oecd, world bank, treasury, atleast 90% of economists, all living PM's and former PM's, all major political parties except UKIP, DUP & respect party)

Are remain voters all really little mummys boys?? Really?? Or is it just fanciful thinking by those leave voters on there downers that an immigrant free Britain would bring some kind of depressed utopia....and they think if they throw in a little bit of name-calling that we will come round to their irrational way of thinking...Really?


Either you're George Osborne's think tank or echo.

A lot of what you've posted has been shown to be fantasy, calculations made on worst case scenarios with absolutely no positives whatsoever included or come from the cosy establishment that have vested interests and allies within their protected web of expertise. Where were they before 2008 and other obviously awful economic recessions?

Even a leftie who you respect has said he wants out, yet on here that wasn't posted. Yes, the mature Paul Mason who said he wanted out but had a problem voting out because those nasty tories, BJ and MG, would be leading Britain. How mature. Consider voting in because he doesn't like them? Why not vote out and in the next General Election and try and elect a centre left party which is what a few pro-immigration but anti-EU lefties I've heard say. That's democracy.

Martin Lewis had it right. If you can embrace risk and see a bright future then it can sway you to vote out. If you cannot take risk then vote in. You'll probably have a little less money for a while and there may be economic shocks on the way, but the upside could be worth it. 'The Agenda' programme has been removed from the ITV website. All other episodes in the series have been left there to view. Funny that.

I'm tired of this country pandering to the EU and big business, which is what this Union is all for. SME's are where the future can be for this country and a fairer distribution of wealth with less fat cats and less emphasis on short-term goals for end of year only and focus on share prices. Just look at the German economy for proof.

Edited by Rudi Hedman (27 May 2016 11.17am)

 


COYP

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