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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)


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Islington Eagle Flag North of the River 09 Jul 18 2.07pm

Originally posted by dannyboy1978

3.Also IF Brexit closes Car and plane factories , turns Kent into a giant lorry park, grounds all the flights

IF !!!! Dont take it personally but great countries don't go on a BUT WHAT IF policy!! otherwise nothing will ever get done. I could say to you back, what IF it all works out? You don't know, but I can understand why you are scared.

If we have a no deal scenario these are not What if. These things will happen. If we get a deal, depending on the deal these things might not occur or their impact will be smaller. These are facts.

 


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Stirlingsays Flag 09 Jul 18 2.11pm

Originally posted by Islington Eagle

In the 40 years since we joined the EU the world has changed in many many ways. Advances in Technology and communications have enabled a far more connected and interconnected world. The world has got a lot smaller.
International companies have used technology to create comlicated and efficient businesses that rely on frictionless trade, international labour, standardised international rules and regulations. this has meant that we now have amazing items like smart phones in our pockets that we can afford. Bits of them are designed in the UK (ARM chips), with software developed in the United states, with raw materials from all over the world, assembled in (mostly) China, and shipped to you at a price that is affordable to many many people. This is the miracle of the modern world.
Slogans like Buy British etc. are as outdated as saying how did we mange before we joined, because there are so few things in any country that are not the result of an international effort.
I 100% agree that this has not benefitted everyone. Manual workers in the UK have been pitted against manual workers in China and have lost out. However this is how things are going to move in the future. Artificial intelligence is soon going to make many people in office jobs redundant. Blaming the EU or some other bogey man for this disruption is very wrong. What we need to do is look at a new settlement for all working people and to make sure that we redistribute the dividend that technlogy has provided more fairly. The vast wealth that technology has created for the few (such as Amazon's Jeff Bezos) has been at the expense of manual workers and will next be white collar workers. We need to understand how to resolve this issue, while not discouraging innovation but recompensing the people that have suffered as the industrial age moves to a post-industrial age.
In short we are not going to be able to wind back the UK to the age before the EU - that time has gone. Saying how did we cope before is like saying things were great before the Romans came. Well yeah kind of - if you want to paint yourself in Woad and live in the bronze age...
There are issues with immigration but leaving the EU in itself is not going to fix them.

Very little you have written here requires the EU in any meaningful way as a method for improvement.

The EU is a political entity and a undemocratic power grab that I disavow as a legitimate voice for the European peoples.

No one is, for example, saying that the US needs to be within some large block and give up its sovereignty because.....development.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

dannyboy1978 Flag 09 Jul 18 2.15pm

Originally posted by Islington Eagle

In the 40 years since we joined the EU the world has changed in many many ways. Advances in Technology and communications have enabled a far more connected and interconnected world. The world has got a lot smaller. International companies have used technology to create comlicated and efficient businesses that rely on frictionless trade, international labour, standardised international rules and regulations. this has meant that we now have amazing items like smart phones in our pockets that we can afford. Bits of them are designed in the UK (ARM chips), with software developed in the United states, with raw materials from all over the world, assembled in (mostly) China, and shipped to you at a price that is affordable to many many people. This is the miracle of the modern world.
Slogans like Buy British etc. are as outdated as saying how did we mange before we joined, because there are so few things in any country that are not the result of an international effort.
I 100% agree that this has not benefitted everyone. Manual workers in the UK have been pitted against manual workers in China and have lost out. However this is how things are going to move in the future. Artificial intelligence is soon going to make many people in office jobs redundant. Blaming the EU or some other bogey man for this disruption is very wrong. What we need to do is look at a new settlement for all working people and to make sure that we redistribute the dividend that technlogy has provided more fairly. The vast wealth that technology has created for the few (such as Amazon's Jeff Bezos) has been at the expense of manual workers and will next be white collar workers. We need to understand how to resolve this issue, while not discouraging innovation but recompensing the people that have suffered as the industrial age moves to a post-industrial age.
In short we are not going to be able to wind back the UK to the age before the EU - that time has gone. Saying how did we cope before is like saying things were great before the Romans came. Well yeah kind of - if you want to paint yourself in Woad and live in the bronze age...
There are issues with immigration but leaving the EU in itself is not going to fix them.

I agree about artificial intelligence and have said this for many years !! why keep bring over 2-300,000 a year driving wages down to over populate our country when we wont need all these people in the future!
We cold start talking about 3D printing and how thats going to change everything again !!

Our governments have taken the easy route on growth and that's a bigger population with out spending on the infrastructure, The EU wont change so I want out !!

 

Islington Eagle Flag North of the River 09 Jul 18 2.46pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

Very little you have written here requires the EU in any meaningful way as a method for improvement.

The EU is a political entity and a undemocratic power grab that I disavow as a legitimate voice for the European peoples.

No one is, for example, saying that the US needs to be within some large block and give up its sovereignty because.....development.

What I am saying is that the reasons for lots of people - like DannyBoy - voting to leave the EU (falling wages for low skilled people) are not caused by the EU but the result of globalisation. Globalisation's issues are not going to be resolved by leaving the EU - in fact they are going to get WORSE. The EU is a protectionist trading bloc that has lessened the impact of globalisation. If we are a free trading nation globalisation is going to destroy the economy. Farming and manufacturing will be gone.
It will be the 1980's again on Steroids. But this is what the arch-Thatcherites in the Tory party want. It is their ultimate dream. On the other hand Corbyn thinks that chucking off the EU will leave him free to create some socialiest dream land. Both f***ing crazy.

The US is in a large free trading bloc - it is called NAFTA.

The EU is no less undemocratic than the UK - just different. We still Elect the body that votes on EU laws ( I have not got time to go back over this ridiculous accusation it has been done to death - try Googling the House of lords).

However once we leave the EU we will have to align to somebodies trade standards and regulations in order to export to any significant market. Currently we are aligned to the EU. In the future we may want to align with China or the US. Essentially these are the choices as these are the 3 largest regulatory blocs. At the moment we are aligned to the highest standard that means we are good to go for all three. The Tories want to trash that so we can import US agricutural products which currently don't meet EU regs. But that means we say good bye to exporting to Europe.
And by the way - good luck with an advantageous trade deal with the US. Trump is the greatest deal maker in the world and will use his expertise to f*** us over royally. AMERICA FIRST - if you hadn't already heard.

 


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CambridgeEagle Flag Sydenham 09 Jul 18 3.05pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

The one sensible comment you've written that I can concur with is that we indeed are living in parallel universes. Both figuratively in a political sense and perhaps physically for all of us.

Your allusion to a 'plan' is a disingenuous criticism. Anyone with any sense understands that political parties are collections of people with widely different perspectives. Hence when they are forced to make collective decisions all you will end up with is a fudge.

A 'published' strategy would be the height of stupidity. To make this known before time would be purely weakening your negotiating position and it's just another in the long string of disingenuous criticisms of remainers poking around looking to literally subvert democracy.


Edited by Stirlingsays (09 Jul 2018 12.16pm)

I disagree. Should have just said we will leave the EU without "a deal" so therefore leave CU/SM etc and then look to do a Canada style FTA but geared to UK economy once we're out. The way the Tories did it has been a debacle and basically left everyone in the dark for over 2 years. This stops the DUP moaning as we could just have a different set of rules for NI without having to abide by them in the rest of the UK. By not laying any of this out it was open season and everyone is adamant that everyone else voted for a version of Brexit which is different from the next man's.

 

Stirlingsays Flag 09 Jul 18 3.24pm

Originally posted by Islington Eagle

What I am saying is that the reasons for lots of people - like DannyBoy - voting to leave the EU (falling wages for low skilled people) are not caused by the EU but the result of globalisation. Globalisation's issues are not going to be resolved by leaving the EU - in fact they are going to get WORSE. The EU is a protectionist trading bloc that has lessened the impact of globalisation. If we are a free trading nation globalisation is going to destroy the economy. Farming and manufacturing will be gone.
It will be the 1980's again on Steroids. But this is what the arch-Thatcherites in the Tory party want. It is their ultimate dream. On the other hand Corbyn thinks that chucking off the EU will leave him free to create some socialiest dream land. Both f***ing crazy.

The US is in a large free trading bloc - it is called NAFTA.

The EU is no less undemocratic than the UK - just different. We still Elect the body that votes on EU laws ( I have not got time to go back over this ridiculous accusation it has been done to death - try Googling the House of lords).

However once we leave the EU we will have to align to somebodies trade standards and regulations in order to export to any significant market. Currently we are aligned to the EU. In the future we may want to align with China or the US. Essentially these are the choices as these are the 3 largest regulatory blocs. At the moment we are aligned to the highest standard that means we are good to go for all three. The Tories want to trash that so we can import US agricutural products which currently don't meet EU regs. But that means we say good bye to exporting to Europe.
And by the way - good luck with an advantageous trade deal with the US. Trump is the greatest deal maker in the world and will use his expertise to f*** us over royally. AMERICA FIRST - if you hadn't already heard.

All of this is pure scare mongering. There are several European countries outside of the EU that have their own arrangements. We will do the same or we will crash out.

As for NAFTA, you mean the trading block Trump is threatening to leave.

Trump is right to put the US first and personally I hope that we increase trade between us considerably. May refusing free trade between us recently is yet another surrender to the EU and I hope she will soon be gone politically.

Immigration is the central cause for the leave vote and staying in the EU means excepting the EU's immigration policy with no control over it.

We have the power to control non EU numbers and pressure can be applied to tighten this still further by the British voter.

This can't be done with the EU. Hence voting to leave it is the only option available. Considering the madness of its recent reaction to immigration I think we are leaving just in the nick of time.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

steeleye20 Flag Croydon 09 Jul 18 3.26pm

Don't see how hard brexit people like Johnson still are going on.

What is left of the brexit they wanted to inflict on us?

Hopefully nothing.

 

Stirlingsays Flag 09 Jul 18 3.28pm

Originally posted by steeleye20

Don't see how hard brexit people like Johnson still are going on.

What is left of the brexit they wanted to inflict on us?

Hopefully nothing.

You aren't a democrat Steely.

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

steeleye20 Flag Croydon 09 Jul 18 3.28pm

Originally posted by steeleye20

Don't see how hard brexit people like Johnson still are going on.

What is left of the brexit they wanted to inflict on us?

Hopefully nothing.

Well he has just answered that he has departed too.

 

Islington Eagle Flag North of the River 09 Jul 18 3.45pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

All of this is pure scare mongering. There are several European countries outside of the EU that have their own arrangements. We will do the same or we will crash out.

Why is this scare mongering? Explain that to me? What part of it is scaremongering exactly?

What other european countries arrangements are you referring to? Can you give me an example?

Are you happy to crash out? Do you fully understand the implications of crashing out? this would be project fear becoming project reality - I don't think anyone disputes that - in at least the short term.

 


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Brentmiester_General Flag Front line in the battle against t... 09 Jul 18 3.50pm

Anyone who still thinks Brexit is a good idea is doing so out of sheer pig headed stubbornness. It’s rapidly becoming the train wreck anyone with a brain and a bit of foresight said it would be.

 


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Direwolf Flag Lincoln 09 Jul 18 3.57pm

Originally posted by Brentmiester_General

Anyone who still thinks Brexit is a good idea is doing so out of sheer pig headed stubbornness. It’s rapidly becoming the train wreck anyone with a brain and a bit of foresight said it would be.

And with all the people who were prominent in its instigation buggering off and leaving some other poor sods to deal with it.

 

Sportyteacher Flag London 09 Jul 18 4.15pm

Originally posted by steeleye20

Well he has just answered that he has departed too.

Interesting development with Johnson's resignation was that he promised No:10 that he'd go tonight but shafted her by announcing half hour before May's speech in House of Commons re: Chequers EU talks

 

Stirlingsays Flag 09 Jul 18 4.20pm

Originally posted by Islington Eagle

Why is this scare mongering? Explain that to me? What part of it is scaremongering exactly?

Your statement that globalisation in inevitable is just one of them. Globalisation is a code word for accepting mass immigration and out sourcing jobs. The Eastern EU countries don't agree with you....countries like Japan and the US and others don't agree with you.

Your statement that Trump would screw Britain is another.

Originally posted by Islington Eagle

What other european countries arrangements are you referring to? Can you give me an example?


Norway and Switzerland are two examples of countries in Europe with their own arrangements with the EU.

Both different arrangements with the EU just as ours will be.

Originally posted by Islington Eagle

Are you happy to crash out? Do you fully understand the implications of crashing out? this would be project fear becoming project reality - I don't think anyone disputes that - in at least the short term.

I'm happy to crash out if the EU seriously want that. This would have a nasty effect on the economy for five to ten years of around a five percent contraction.

Long terms it's going to be beneficial in my view compared to staying in. Especially if the EU collapses.....as is probable.

Edited by Stirlingsays (09 Jul 2018 4.24pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

Islington Eagle Flag North of the River 09 Jul 18 4.41pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I'm happy to crash out if the EU seriously want that. This would have a nasty effect on the economy for five to ten years of around a five percent contraction.

Long terms it's going to be beneficial in my view compared to staying in. Especially if the EU collapses.....as is probable.

Edited by Stirlingsays (09 Jul 2018 4.24pm)

I have not said Globalisation is inevitable. I was describing the effects of Globalisation. It has been UK government choice to partake in globalisation. It is not scaremongering - this is what happened. We can easily have a more protectionist economy in the future - and we could have moved the EU in a more protectionist direction. It was the UK government choice not to do that over the last 20 years. This is a statement of fact not scaremongering. Equally we could have controlled non EU migration over the last 50 years, but we chose not to as successive governments thought that it benefitted the economy. This is just fact not scaremongering. Eastern european countries can do what they want - they are not the 6th biggest economy in the world. If they want to chuck off the shackles of communism after Capitalism won the cold war and return to tin pot dictatorships good luck to them - but they can f*** off out of the EU if they do.
the US has felt Globalisation as much as the UK has and will continue to do so. Trump is talking the talk on rolling some of it back but lets see how much he achieves.

Why do you think Trump would negotiate anything other than a deal that would benefit the US? I really don't understand your logic. How would this not be the case?
If he didn't he would be letting down the people of the USA? America first? This is not scaremongering - just logic.

You know Norway and Switzerland have customs controls, accept the jurisdiction of the ECJ, pay into the EU budget and have free movement - don't you? All of which are ruled out by the current government as not delivering the will of the people? This is all just basic stuff. We have been at this for two years and people still don't get this.

Crashing out - 5%. And some....


 


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Lyons550 Flag Shirley 09 Jul 18 4.57pm

Originally posted by CambridgeEagle

The EU's strategy of just rejecting any sort of fudged position has worked very well to date so I see no need for them to deviate from it quite yet. May's position will keep softening until we're at Norway or no Brexit and they will say thank you very much. No deal a non-started given legislation in UK parliament RE Irish border and given parliamentary arithmetic.

What a buggers muddle.

I think the whole thing should be stopped, but I have pointed out on here that we should be doing full Brexit or no Brexit not a weak pastiche of soft Brexit. Waste of bloody time, money and effort. This is all Cameron's fault for doing zero prep and not making it abundantly clear on the voting slip what the actual choices were and saying Brexit will mean x,y and z and laying out a roadmap for how it would happen. Thanks to him all we've had is Tory party squabbling and May finally pushing us towards a pointless BINO following a disastrous election campaign and rejection of her strategy for Brexit and the country.


Agree with the majority of this...what a farce

 


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Brentmiester_General Flag Front line in the battle against t... 09 Jul 18 5.21pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I'm happy to crash out if the EU seriously want that. This would have a nasty effect on the economy for five to ten years of around a five percent contraction.

Long terms it's going to be beneficial in my view compared to staying in. Especially if the EU collapses.....as is probable.

All ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’. You have absolutely no idea how things will pan out. That’s why it’s better the devil you know. As a business owner it will be people like me (and my family) that suffers, just to appease the gullible and the intolerant in society.
I started my business to service a booming industry that will be one of the first to suffer when the hard times hit. And for what exactly?


Edited by Stirlingsays (09 Jul 2018 4.24pm)

 


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Stirlingsays Flag 09 Jul 18 6.04pm

Originally posted by Islington Eagle

I have not said Globalisation is inevitable. I was describing the effects of Globalisation. It has been UK government choice to partake in globalisation. It is not scaremongering - this is what happened. We can easily have a more protectionist economy in the future


I wouldn't call Japan and Eastern Europe 'protectionist' as such. It's simply looking to trade but not screw replace their own populations with a Benetton advert.

In a hundred years time people will go to Japan and see the Japanese culture. We have already screwed that up here over decades with too high an immigration policy. We have told our own youth that they have to complete with foreigners for British jobs.....as if their birthright means nothing....Well, I'll never accept that personally.

Originally posted by Islington Eagle

- and we could have moved the EU in a more protectionist direction. It was the UK government choice not to do that over the last 20 years. This is a statement of fact not scaremongering.


I don't agree that we could have changed the EU's policy on this. That is what we tried to do for about twenty years and....and I'm struggling to think of one policy that we changed.

The EU is run by Germany....with France as its little brother. We were always the black sheep of the family who they still had to contend with.

Originally posted by Islington Eagle

Equally we could have controlled non EU migration over the last 50 years, but we chose not to as successive governments thought that it benefitted the economy. This is just fact not scaremongering.


I'd agree somewhat with you here. However, the British people had no one to vote for who offered a truthful policy on immigration.....we just were fed lies after lies.

Brexit was the only change the UK had to push back.....Yet we still have anti democratic left wing elements and the pro EU job Tories looking to overturn it.


Originally posted by Islington Eagle

Eastern european countries can do what they want - they are not the 6th biggest economy in the world. If they want to chuck off the shackles of communism after Capitalism won the cold war and return to tin pot dictatorships good luck to them - but they can f*** off out of the EU if they do.

The Eastern EU countries will still have their own populations in their own countries in two generations time.

These are countries that have experienced invasion from communists and they know what's it's like to be ruled over by others.

They don't have growing populations within their borders playing racism cards and crying victimhood. They don't have to pick up the limbs of children off the pavement every year.....because...you know, it's part and parcel of living in a big city.

They have a right to reject this future.....We unfortunately were sold lies about multiculturalism by the left and right.


Originally posted by Islington Eagle

the US has felt Globalisation as much as the UK has and will continue to do so. Trump is talking the talk on rolling some of it back but lets see how much he achieves.

I wouldn't disagree....we live in interesting times.


Originally posted by Islington Eagle

Why do you think Trump would negotiate anything other than a deal that would benefit the US? I really don't understand your logic. How would this not be the case?
If he didn't he would be letting down the people of the USA? America first? This is not scaremongering - just logic.


This line of logic makes no sense. Please tell me the foreign entity that negotiates any deals that aren't in it's self interest. This happens within the EU itself.

An expansion of trade with the US is of benefit to both countries if handled evenly. That's up to the negotiators.

Originally posted by Islington Eagle

You know Norway and Switzerland have customs controls, accept the jurisdiction of the ECJ, pay into the EU budget and have free movement - don't you? All of which are ruled out by the current government as not delivering the will of the people? This is all just basic stuff. We have been at this for two years and people still don't get this.


That's the models they have. You asked me, I delivered.

We will have our own model.....We have far far more trading links than both Norway and the Swiss and the same model isn't necessary.

Originally posted by Islington Eagle

Crashing out - 5%. And some....

I doubt it......Whatever, for me still having a chance at still having a country that self identifies as England in fifty years is more important. And given a binary choice between staying in the EU and getting out......I vote out.


Edited by Stirlingsays (09 Jul 2018 6.57pm)

 


'Who are you and how did you get in here? I'm a locksmith. And, I'm a locksmith.' (Leslie Nielsen)

.TUX. Flag 09 Jul 18 6.52pm

Originally posted by Brentmiester_General

Anyone who still thinks Brexit is a good idea is doing so out of sheer pig headed stubbornness. It’s rapidly becoming the train wreck anyone with a brain and a bit of foresight said it would be.

Really? That's one hell of a brooooooooaaaad statement to make.
Would you like to expand?

 


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.TUX. Flag 09 Jul 18 7.01pm

Originally posted by Stirlingsays

I'm happy to crash out if the EU seriously want that. This would have a nasty effect on the economy for five to ten years of around a five percent contraction.

Long terms it's going to be beneficial in my view compared to staying in. Especially if the EU collapses.....as is probable.

Edited by Stirlingsays (09 Jul 2018 4.24pm)

Ditto.
But re- any ''contraction'', this is already a global problem (imo) BUT i have no doubts that the uneducated will blame Brexit when the s*** hits the fan...........rather than their complete lack of knowledge.

Oh well.

 


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