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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)


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davenotamonkey Flag 31 May 16 6.26pm

Originally posted by big_palace_fan

One of my housemates ideologically backs Brexit but wants to work in finance when he's older.

Thus he has voted remain.

I reckon vast swaths of unsure people will remain.

I have never heard my mum say anything but pro-Brexit arguments and she says we should remain as well.

Genuinely baffling. We are the economic capital of Europe (yes, Europe, not the EU), if not possibly the world. The next biggest financial leviathan? Zurich. Not in the EU. How does it manage? How does Hong Kong manage? Singapore? New York? None of these are in the EU, yet are financial powerhouses. What does non-UK EU have? Frankfurt and Paris.

I find myself sadly shaking my head at the complete lack of vision and self-belief in our nation. So very sad to see how we've become a people cowed and brow-beaten into subservience by scary bedtime stories.

 

davenotamonkey Flag 31 May 16 6.27pm

Originally posted by Hoof Hearted

Dave.... stop it now.... Kermit must be fed up to the back teeth of you taking down his trousers and pants and giving him a spanking!

Heheh - much more effective than those after-school detentions they dish out these days!

 

davenotamonkey Flag 31 May 16 6.35pm

Originally posted by jamiemartin721

Interesting - The UK cannot just leave the EU, it has to negotiate an exit over a two year period, possibly longer if the Referendum result is close enough to appeal the decision or force a recount etc (so say two years and six weeks).

Which I guess makes sense, given the UK has obligations to the EU it has already given notice to undertake etc.

Still, interesting times and all that.

Article 50 (the section of the treaty we would invoke if we leave) gives provision for up to two years of negotiations.

If the EU were to deliberately sabotage and/or derail negotiations during this time (contrary to its own Treaty, Article 8(1)) then we would find ourselves trading at WTO "Most Preferred Nation" rates. It would be a powerful lesson to those still in the EU: leave and we'll fcuk with you. That's not the kind of club I'd like to be in, frankly. A bit Mafioso. I doubt it would stem the tide of those scrabbling to leave.

Given the degree of regulatory convergence between the EU and an exiting UK, the petty "you're not our friend anymore" approach is literally the ONLY means to derail a trade agreement. As we already adopt the laws and regulations for export to the EU, none of the long FTA harmonisation rounds are needed. My bet: an EU-UK trade deal before or soon after Christmas.

 

davenotamonkey Flag 31 May 16 6.36pm

Originally posted by davenotamonkey

Article 50 (the section of the treaty we would invoke if we leave) gives provision for up to two years of negotiations.

If the EU were to deliberately sabotage and/or derail negotiations during this time (contrary to its own Treaty, Article 8(1)) then we would find ourselves trading at WTO "Most Preferred Nation" rates. It would be a powerful lesson to those still in the EU: leave and we'll fcuk with you. That's not the kind of club I'd like to be in, frankly. A bit Mafioso. I doubt it would stem the tide of those scrabbling to leave.

Given the degree of regulatory convergence between the EU and an exiting UK, the petty "you're not our friend anymore" approach is literally the ONLY means to derail a trade agreement. As we already adopt the laws and regulations for export to the EU, none of the long FTA harmonisation rounds are needed. My bet: an EU-UK trade deal before or soon after Christmas.

I'll add that it would likely be with a new government, as Cameron is toast after the referendum: win or lose. And deservedly so.

 

matt_himself Flag Matataland 31 May 16 8.50pm

Originally posted by Johnny Eagles

You surprise me, Willo. I thought you'd be backing Cameron.

The reason I think it will be 'Remain':

1. The bookmakers are pretty sure, and they're right more often than the pollsters*

2. Even I, a hardened Brexiter who still thinks we should be building dreadnoughts and maintaing a foothold in Rhodesia, thought twice before putting my cross in the box. 'Am I really going to do this?' I asked. I did. But I reckon a LOT will bottle it.

3. I think 'Brexiters' are a loud minority. Like the Jock Nats, they shout the loudest but don't have the numbers.

4. It's all about the undecideds. Especially Labour-voting undecideds. 'Leave' is for people who really care about the issue. I don't think the undecideds do care (or they wouldn't be undecided) and I think they're more likely to be swayed by the Bank of England, the Treasury, the IMF, etc.

5. The status quo has an in-built advantage in any referendum of this sort.

6. If Cameron - who will have access to all kinds of private polling we hear nothing about - thought there was a genuine possibility of losing the referendum, he'd have found a way to wriggle out of it. The slippery little worm.


*Apart from, er, Corbyn. And Leicester. But otherwise, they're pretty reliable.

I completely agree with you about Rhodesia. Just look what happened after we pussied out and let Mugabe, Sithole, and all the other loons get power.

 


"That was fun and to round off the day, I am off to steal a charity collection box and then desecrate a place of worship.” - Smokey, The Selhurst Arms, 26/02/02

DivingIsNotGood Flag se25 31 May 16 9.11pm

Who is eligible to vote? My Portuguese neighbour moved to Selhurst from Beja three years ago, lovely family. Said this evening both he and his wife were sent polling cards this week. I'm certain they are not dual nationality so trying to figure out how they are able to vote. Anyone know?

 


VOTING OUT - Brexit will allow Britain to embrace the Commonwealth and be GREAT again

Boooo Flag 31 May 16 10.01pm

I've not read everything here in this thread so apologise if someone has mentioned this.

In 2010 and then again in 2012 The Telegraph reported that by 2020 the EU wanted all member states to use the Euro. I cannot for the life of me find anything that says this will not happen. Anyone know?

This is really important....to me anyway.

 


I refuse to believe there are that many people out there that can't spell. Too f**king lazy, that's what I think.

corkery Flag Cork City 31 May 16 10.28pm

Originally posted by DivingIsNotGood

Who is eligible to vote? My Portuguese neighbour moved to Selhurst from Beja three years ago, lovely family. Said this evening both he and his wife were sent polling cards this week. I'm certain they are not dual nationality so trying to figure out how they are able to vote. Anyone know?

About 100,000 Irish citizens plus thousand more who've moved to Northern Ireland. It's odd because UK nationals can't vote in Irish referendums.

 


We'll never die

Willo Flag South coast - west of Brighton. 31 May 16 10.38pm

Originally posted by DivingIsNotGood

Who is eligible to vote? My Portuguese neighbour moved to Selhurst from Beja three years ago, lovely family. Said this evening both he and his wife were sent polling cards this week. I'm certain they are not dual nationality so trying to figure out how they are able to vote. Anyone know?

[Link]

 

davenotamonkey Flag 31 May 16 10.53pm

Originally posted by Boooo

I've not read everything here in this thread so apologise if someone has mentioned this.

In 2010 and then again in 2012 The Telegraph reported that by 2020 the EU wanted all member states to use the Euro. I cannot for the life of me find anything that says this will not happen. Anyone know?

This is really important....to me anyway.

We have an "opt-out". Like we had an opt-out from bailing out the Eurozone (we paid). Like we have opt-outs on the EU charter that the ECJ can overrule (77% UK failure rate against the ECJ). Like we lost the opt-out to prevent the Eurozone from corralling and pushing through legislation the favours them and not the UK (as will happen increasingly) - that was in the "negotiation" Dave came back with in his ham-fisted hand.

Here's the reality: to the 5 EU presidents (can you name them? Do you know what they do?) the single market IS the eurozone. It is inevitable that they will integrate further in ALL respects - the "5 presidents report" genuinely lays out how, and on what timescale. Here is the report:

[Link]

This isn't a crackpot study or speculative wishful thinking from nutjob federalist MEP groups (the Spinelli group spring to mind here). No. This report is authored by Jean-Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Mario Draghi and Martin Schulz. The five presidents (no, you didn't vote for them).

Oh yeah, yeah - it's just a report, idiot!! Well. No. These reports are the blueprints and roadmaps for the next EU treaties, just as the previous iterations were. You read it in this, it will be in the next treaty.

"Deepening by doing" (as per the above report) can only mean one of three things for the UK, were it to remain in the EU:

1. We become an awkward observer from the periphery as the Eurozone/singlemarket integrates into the superstate called for by these men. We pay in, and get out-flanked and outvoted more and more as our trajectories diverge. The only difference is how easily we are outvoted once the extra 5 states join and our MEP count, council and commission strength drops. But we keep paying in to the club. A protectionist club inside an outmoded protectionist customs union. Superb.

2. We do the above, but (as will no doubt be the case) stronger clamours to fully join this superstate gain traction. Worms like Ken Clarke get their way and "the Westminister Parliament is just a council chamber in Europe" (his words, not mine). We essentially cease to exist as a sovereign nation as we cede more and more powers as laid out in the above report.

3. The EU/Eurozone implodes while we are in it. We will be more exposed in than out (caveat: Brexit most certainly does not insulate us from this), and no "opt-outs" are going to save us from the huge bill at the end to clean up the mess. While that mess is being cleaned out, expect a biblical exodus out of eurozone countries into... well. Where in the EU doesn't have the Euro? We already see this right now, and it isn't surprising when the EU success story includes 50% youth unemployment in Spain and Greece.

No doubt the EU fanboys on here will pooh-pooh point 2 above, but respected economists beg to differ: "After 2020, all EU members will have to adopt the euro"

[Link]

 

davenotamonkey Flag 31 May 16 10.58pm

Polish guy got his voting card for the referendum today. He registered on the electoral roll, accidentally marked "British", and the limit of their checks were "did he tick British?". How many else have done that? An utter farce, coupled with the postal vote "graphical aide to vote" scandal. Good job we have a proactive, effective Electoral Commission, eh?

Oh...

[Link]

remain-553561.jpg Attachment: remain-553561.jpg (28.65Kb)

 

Cucking Funt Flag Clapham on the Back 31 May 16 11.21pm

Originally posted by davenotamonkey

Polish guy got his voting card for the referendum today. He registered on the electoral roll, accidentally marked "British", and the limit of their checks were "did he tick British?". How many else have done that? An utter farce, coupled with the postal vote "graphical aide to vote" scandal. Good job we have a proactive, effective Electoral Commission, eh?

Oh...

[Link]

I can see the outcome of this referendum bring contested in court should the Remain camp win.

 


Wife beating may be socially acceptable in Sheffield, but it is a different matter in Cheltenham

davenotamonkey Flag 31 May 16 11.37pm

Originally posted by Cucking Funt

I can see the outcome of this referendum bring contested in court should the Remain camp win.

They will win. Goldmann Sachs, George Soros and Co hate to lose. They have a lot of money invested in us remaining - literally as bankrollers of the Remain campaign, and with their vested interests.

 

Willo Flag South coast - west of Brighton. 31 May 16 11.48pm

Originally posted by davenotamonkey

They will win. Goldmann Sachs, George Soros and Co hate to lose. They have a lot of money invested in us remaining - literally as bankrollers of the Remain campaign, and with their vested interests.

By no means certainties.

At the end of the day a vote to 'Remain' is a vote to maintain permanently the EU Treaty principle of "Free movement of people" and a vote to ensure that we have to admit economic migrants from the EU whether they have an offer of a job or not.

Furthermore a vote to "Remain" is to leave the "European Court Of Justice" to strike down decisions of the UK about asylum and immigration policy.

And a vote to "Remain" is a vote to continue membership of the EU whose ultimate goal is to have a "United States of Europe".

Finally we are a major nation.Europe needs us.We need to govern our own country and NOT be dictated to by the dastardly EU.

Edited by Willo (01 Jun 2016 12.03am)

 

Canterbury Palace Flag Whitstable 01 Jun 16 12.03am

I'm voting out but would be massively suprised if we didn't stay. I think the best that can be hoped for is a very narrow remain vote causing Cameron to stand down and an eventual second referendum on the basis of how utterly biased this one has been.

 


We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the drugs began to take hold...

Hoof Hearted 01 Jun 16 10.52am

Originally posted by big_palace_fan

Hoof you're what, 50+ and still making jokes about people's mothers, this isn't the house of commons you know

My response was tame compared to what I was thinking... I'm 62 by the way.

Age is not a barrier to exploiting schoolboy error gifted opportunities like you presented... bringing your mum into the debate... LOL

 

Hoof Hearted 01 Jun 16 10.56am

Originally posted by davenotamonkey

Polish guy got his voting card for the referendum today. He registered on the electoral roll, accidentally marked "British", and the limit of their checks were "did he tick British?". How many else have done that? An utter farce, coupled with the postal vote "graphical aide to vote" scandal. Good job we have a proactive, effective Electoral Commission, eh?

Oh...

[Link]

Voters in this referendum should be limited to those that can turn up with a valid British passport as well as polling card to prove they are eligible.

 

jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 01 Jun 16 1.00pm

Originally posted by Willo

By no means certainties.

At the end of the day a vote to 'Remain' is a vote to maintain permanently the EU Treaty principle of "Free movement of people" and a vote to ensure that we have to admit economic migrants from the EU whether they have an offer of a job or not.

Voting to leave the EU isn't going to necessarily change that either, but I agree it gives the possibility to change that. There are also a considerable number of UK citizens working around Europe that would also be affected if we did exit the EU Freedom of movement. Leaving the EU doesn't mean an end to free movement. It only gives a potential capacity to do so. Countries like Norway, who aren't part of the EU have signed up to the 'Freedom of Movement'.

Originally posted by Willo

Furthermore a vote to "Remain" is to leave the "European Court Of Justice" to strike down decisions of the UK about asylum and immigration policy.

Well no, it doesn't, because that's not how the ECHR functions, in the slightest. The UK would still require a highest court of appeal, and this has been the European court since the 1950s. UK asylum and immigration policy must still remain within UK Law, and the ECHR only becomes involved where conflicts exist within two or more different legal status in law.

The Human Rights act would need to be revoked from British Law, as it was introduced by the UK Government, through all legal and due process, in 1998. This is where most of the conflict occurs, typically when the UK Government tries to do something that is actually against its own laws.

Originally posted by Willo

And a vote to "Remain" is a vote to continue membership of the EU whose ultimate goal is to have a "United States of Europe".

Hyperbole, this wouldn't really ever be viable, and the EU doesn't really have the capacity or authority to implement this. More sinister, is that the EU represents more of a Corporate State of Europe, than a United states of Europe.

Originally posted by Willo

Finally we are a major nation.Europe needs us.We need to govern our own country and NOT be dictated to by the dastardly EU.

Edited by Willo (01 Jun 2016 12.03am)

God save the queen, for king and country, Lloyd George and all that bollocks - We don't govern our own country, we have an elite that does that and damn it, we have our own rich elite w*ankers who dictate our lives etc. But its all hyperbole.

I'm all for leaving the EU, but in no way is it dictatorial or dastardly. Its simply necessary to redefine the nature of the EU and shared European identity, in a manner that represents the people of each nation, not commercial powers (which is the real power behind the EU).

I suspect that the UK breaking with the EU, will likely inspire further breaks from the EU, resulting ultimately in a different kind of Union further down the line.

Problem is, the illusion that the referendum will actually change anything. Even if its an exit, we will still be a nation ruled by corporate interests and their representatives.

 


"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug"
[Link]

jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 01 Jun 16 1.13pm

Originally posted by Hoof Hearted

Voters in this referendum should be limited to those that can turn up with a valid British passport as well as polling card to prove they are eligible.

I think this raises an interesting flaw in the idea of 'who's British' that actually no one really has a way of determining who is and who isn't British.

Its curious, maybe, that there isn't a central registry that lists all British nationals against which verification could be conducted.

Which suggest to me, that the idea of British Nationality isn't really that much of an important thing to governments in terms of ascertaining (and probably now an absolute nightmare to implement).

Do those ID cards seem like a good idea now?

 


"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug"
[Link]

jamiemartin721 Flag Reading 01 Jun 16 1.15pm

Originally posted by corkery

About 100,000 Irish citizens plus thousand more who've moved to Northern Ireland. It's odd because UK nationals can't vote in Irish referendums.

Probably because Ireland is a separate country from the UK, but plenty of Irish citizens wanted to retain a British Identity etc.

Bloke I worked with in my previous role, spent 20 years in the British Army, and was Irish. We only found out when he failed Security Clearance (not a UK National) that he wasn't British, he was sure he was.

 


"One Nation Under God, has turned into One Nation Under the Influence of One Drug"
[Link]

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