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The Brexit Thread (LOCKED)


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Y Ddraig Goch Flag In The Crowd 07 Jun 16 3.28pm

Originally posted by since1953

I listened to David Cameron's speech yesterday (I think it was at the Oval cricket ground) and he talked about staying in a "reformed" EU. It seems to me that when he tried to change something in our favour he returned home with his trousers around his ankles and a smacked bottom.
Nobody knows what the outcome on trade will be should we decide to leave, but one thing is certain: the German,French,Italian and Spanish car manufactures won't be imposing high tariffs on us because we'll simply go elsewhere for our cars. Likewise for food and drink.

That was the moment I stopped being a certain remain. They showed utter contempt for the UK. Still don't know which way I will vote though (if at all)

 


the dignified don't even enter in the game

johnfirewall Flag 07 Jun 16 3.33pm

Amusing that people pick and choose whose opinions are valid. One meme listed selected businessmen and politicians as the trusted voices of Remain while portraying Leave as a bunch of megalomaniacs exemplified by Boris, Putin and Trump.

It's not like there's anyone else in power looking after their own interests. Conversely to the situation of jobs being freed up with reduction in migration, you'll get a load of MEPs flooding the market.

Of course it's taken for granted that such politicians have good intentions to start with. An assumption made by the left who deem it preferable to have these faceless individuals maintain power over the democratically elected Tory government.

 

nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 07 Jun 16 3.45pm

Originally posted by johnfirewall

Amusing that people pick and choose whose opinions are valid. One meme listed selected businessmen and politicians as the trusted voices of Remain while portraying Leave as a bunch of megalomaniacs exemplified by Boris, Putin and Trump.

It's not like there's anyone else in power looking after their own interests. Conversely to the situation of jobs being freed up with reduction in migration, you'll get a load of MEPs flooding the market.

Of course it's taken for granted that such politicians have good intentions to start with. An assumption made by the left who deem it preferable to have these faceless individuals maintain power over the democratically elected Tory government.

Unless they undemocratically committed election fraud of course.

 

johnfirewall Flag 07 Jun 16 4.13pm

Originally posted by nickgusset

Unless they undemocratically committed election fraud of course.

Plenty of questionable behaviour on both sides of the EU referendum, but personally the deception employed in publishing misleading websites and 'how to vote' forms is a greater crime than failure to declare expenses for a bus (again on both sides) or even the £9m worth of leaflets we paid for, although those area bigger scandal than the immorality of DC's investments if you want to chuck those in too.

 

nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 07 Jun 16 4.16pm

Originally posted by johnfirewall

Plenty of questionable behaviour on both sides of the EU referendum, but personally the deception employed in publishing misleading websites and 'how to vote' forms is a greater crime than failure to declare expenses for a bus (again on both sides) or even the £9m worth of leaflets we paid for, although those area bigger scandal than the immorality of DC's investments if you want to chuck those in too.

I've covered the difference between the battlebus expenses in the relevant thread.
But you are right, the deception on both sides is despicable.

 

silvertop Flag Portishead 07 Jun 16 4.26pm

Originally posted by nickgusset

2 sides of the leave / remain argument both equally valid (That's why I can't make my mind up!):
Remain. [Link]


Leave. [Link]

I have just read both.

The remain arguments seem pretty unarguable to me. However, the leave arguments are overwhelmingly emotional tosh. The EU panders to large corporate; and a post EU Britain dominated by the Tory right would not?

However, the one argument that I had, in the haze of misinformation, overlooked was the trade point. Being able to freely trade with anyone we like on whatever terms we can agree may actually be a liberating event. Also, is it true that we charge African importers an EU set 6.5% tariff? That is scandalous.

I am not wholly convinced by this alone; this may have to be a necessary evil to staying in. The thought of a right of Tory/UKIP dominated political landscape following an out vote fills me with absolute disgust. However, I accept that it does murky the waters.

 

johnfirewall Flag 07 Jun 16 4.49pm

Originally posted by silvertop

The thought of a right of Tory/UKIP dominated political landscape following an out vote fills me with absolute disgust. However, I accept that it does murky the waters.

You can't really argue against the fact that a vote to remain endorses the authority of a higher power equally susceptible to corruption and lobbying from corporate interests. It's implied that a larger entity can't be bought by the likes Murdock etc. as the Tories can, but even without TTIP in the equation that is clearly not true.

Is it harder to get to FIFA or UEFA than the FA?

 

nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 07 Jun 16 4.50pm

Originally posted by silvertop

I have just read both.

The remain arguments seem pretty unarguable to me. However, the leave arguments are overwhelmingly emotional tosh. The EU panders to large corporate; and a post EU Britain dominated by the Tory right would not?

However, the one argument that I had, in the haze of misinformation, overlooked was the trade point. Being able to freely trade with anyone we like on whatever terms we can agree may actually be a liberating event. Also, is it true that we charge African importers an EU set 6.5% tariff? That is scandalous.

I am not wholly convinced by this alone; this may have to be a necessary evil to staying in. The thought of a right of Tory/UKIP dominated political landscape following an out vote fills me with absolute disgust. However, I accept that it does murky the waters.

Yep, but they can be voted out.

 

npn Flag Crowborough 07 Jun 16 4.59pm

Originally posted by silvertop

I have just read both.

The remain arguments seem pretty unarguable to me. However, the leave arguments are overwhelmingly emotional tosh. The EU panders to large corporate; and a post EU Britain dominated by the Tory right would not?

However, the one argument that I had, in the haze of misinformation, overlooked was the trade point. Being able to freely trade with anyone we like on whatever terms we can agree may actually be a liberating event. Also, is it true that we charge African importers an EU set 6.5% tariff? That is scandalous.

I am not wholly convinced by this alone; this may have to be a necessary evil to staying in. The thought of a right of Tory/UKIP dominated political landscape following an out vote fills me with absolute disgust. However, I accept that it does murky the waters.

I really think it's questionable to base your decision on who is in power domestically at the time. If we say no, it will be at least another 40 years before we get to ask the question again (if ever) by which time, many governments will have been and gone, and the government we get is the government we (the people) have asked for. Don't like them? Just vote them out.

 

Hoof Hearted 07 Jun 16 5.16pm

[Link]


[Link]


Some Polls now have the Leave campaign slightly ahead but the gap has definitely narrowed.

Edited by Hoof Hearted (07 Jun 2016 5.19pm)

 

JohnyBoy Flag 07 Jun 16 5.25pm

Originally posted by npn

I really think it's questionable to base your decision on who is in power domestically at the time. If we say no, it will be at least another 40 years before we get to ask the question again (if ever) by which time, many governments will have been and gone, and the government we get is the government we (the people) have asked for. Don't like them? Just vote them out.

Surely there is an element of guaranteeing workers rights here whatever government is elected e.g if we had 10 years (only 2 fixed term parliaments) of right wing tory rule, they would be prevented from passing laws that went beyond the minimum requirements of the eu e.g. maternity/paternity pay, paid holiday etc.
And as i understand it, the elected government of the uk could at any time pass a motion to leave the eu without the need for a referendum (presumably if they had put it in their manifesto) although it may be unpopular not to get the will of the people on such an important issue. But if say the s#it hit the fan in europe and the economic case shifted against membership, then an election in the uk could be held and the elected government of whatever hue could take us out, so this is not a once in a lifetime event necessarily.
If however we came out and the s#it hit the fan economically in the uk, we would have to renegotiate our re-entry and it seems wholly unclear whether we would be able to join with the carve-outs we have hitherto negotiated e.g. out of Shenghen, out of eurozone, no further political integration etc etc and we would be then ofcourse subject to the veto of the remaining 27 members.

 

Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 07 Jun 16 5.31pm

Start of last week it was 11/4 or 5/2, then it was 9/4, then 2/1. It was shortening by 10% every day or so.

It has now drifted back to 5/2 or 12/5 with high st online bookies. [Link]

 


COYP

Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 07 Jun 16 5.41pm

Originally posted by JohnyBoy

Surely there is an element of guaranteeing workers rights here whatever government is elected e.g if we had 10 years (only 2 fixed term parliaments) of right wing tory rule, they would be prevented from passing laws that went beyond the minimum requirements of the eu e.g. maternity/paternity pay, paid holiday etc.
And as i understand it, the elected government of the uk could at any time pass a motion to leave the eu without the need for a referendum (presumably if they had put it in their manifesto) although it may be unpopular not to get the will of the people on such an important issue. But if say the s#it hit the fan in europe and the economic case shifted against membership, then an election in the uk could be held and the elected government of whatever hue could take us out, so this is not a once in a lifetime event necessarily.
If however we came out and the s#it hit the fan economically in the uk, we would have to renegotiate our re-entry and it seems wholly unclear whether we would be able to join with the carve-outs we have hitherto negotiated e.g. out of Shenghen, out of eurozone, no further political integration etc etc and we would be then ofcourse subject to the veto of the remaining 27 members.

Pro-EU and anti-EU is spread across the political spectrum so it isn't really democratically possible, which is why we are where we are, having a say, which we've been refused for ages, particularly under blair.

Blair didn't want us to have a say because we wouldn't make the sensible choice (his choice). Big business shares his view.

I wouldn't worry. It'll either be a stitch up or plenty will bottle it and moan for years after about this or that. If I hear anyone moan I will ask if and what they voted for. I doubt either way will affect me much. I'm voting leave for future generations, not for several years of one.

 


COYP

Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 07 Jun 16 5.52pm

When are the EU going to pull West Ham up for their unfair advantage in sport following the Olympic Stadium contract which is written in EU law?

 


COYP

JohnyBoy Flag 07 Jun 16 6.44pm

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

Pro-EU and anti-EU is spread across the political spectrum so it isn't really democratically possible, which is why we are where we are, having a say, which we've been refused for ages, particularly under blair.

Blair didn't want us to have a say because we wouldn't make the sensible choice (his choice). Big business shares his view.

I wouldn't worry. It'll either be a stitch up or plenty will bottle it and moan for years after about this or that. If I hear anyone moan I will ask if and what they voted for. I doubt either way will affect me much. I'm voting leave for future generations, not for several years of one.

The truth is Rudi, there has never been a parliamentary majority that would have pushed through a leave vote in the house of commons. Even now, there are approx 440 remain mp's versus 130 leave mp's. Under Blair there were even more in favour of eu membership. Remember we joined the eu in 71 without a referendum, although it was ratified by referendum in 75, (not surprisingly really because the uk was nearly broke and had to apply for a £4bn imf loan in 76).
But as i say, if we vote leave and the uk economy takes a marked shift down, the uk population would soon realise it was economically better to rejoin, we could re-enter the eu but with signifcantly less opt-outs or the special status we currently have.
To your last point about asking those complainers if we vote leave, the good news for them is that they could still blame the eu....or immigration...because there would still be 150k+ immigrants from outside the eu(already on points system), 30k from ireland(who would be exempt apparently) and an unknown amount from the eu who satisfy the points criteria, but immigration would still likely be over 250k pa.
Not a problem for me as it has been shown from Hmrc that immigrants were 2.5b net contributors to our economy, but trade, businesses and employment will in most independent arguments be negatively affected. If you agree with nigel farage that this is acceptable but there are some things more important then fair enough.....but with a leave vote the most likely scenario is that we would have to pay something to the eu (Norway pays almost as much as the uk based on gdp per head) but we would be prevented from having an input on the costs, spending etc because we would not be members....so they could still blame our economic malaise on the eu, which ofcourse would have nothing to do with our decision to vote leave.

 

Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 07 Jun 16 7.38pm

Originally posted by JohnyBoy

The truth is Rudi, there has never been a parliamentary majority that would have pushed through a leave vote in the house of commons. Even now, there are approx 440 remain mp's versus 130 leave mp's. Under Blair there were even more in favour of eu membership. Remember we joined the eu in 71 without a referendum, although it was ratified by referendum in 75, (not surprisingly really because the uk was nearly broke and had to apply for a £4bn imf loan in 76).
But as i say, if we vote leave and the uk economy takes a marked shift down, the uk population would soon realise it was economically better to rejoin, we could re-enter the eu but with signifcantly less opt-outs or the special status we currently have.
To your last point about asking those complainers if we vote leave, the good news for them is that they could still blame the eu....or immigration...because there would still be 150k+ immigrants from outside the eu(already on points system), 30k from ireland(who would be exempt apparently) and an unknown amount from the eu who satisfy the points criteria, but immigration would still likely be over 250k pa.
Not a problem for me as it has been shown from Hmrc that immigrants were 2.5b net contributors to our economy, but trade, businesses and employment will in most independent arguments be negatively affected. If you agree with nigel farage that this is acceptable but there are some things more important then fair enough.....but with a leave vote the most likely scenario is that we would have to pay something to the eu (Norway pays almost as much as the uk based on gdp per head) but we would be prevented from having an input on the costs, spending etc because we would not be members....so they could still blame our economic malaise on the eu, which ofcourse would have nothing to do with our decision to vote leave.

I was talking about the euro sceptic electorate.

Candidates are selected before becoming MP's. They have to toe the party line.

People take more notice of Farage because he has life experience. Many politicians do not.

330,000 net migration every year. That could increase. Although you could argue that demand for labour decides the supply, but that could be at a cost to the native low wage labour market more in the future.

Quality of life isn't just about GDP and economic growth where the benefits in this large corporate system go to the shareholders in at the right time.

It doesn't affect me negatively and I'll say that I'm likely to experience the positives of immigration (any I've met I've liked), but who knows, before I die any crazy policies and cures could result from this unplanned flow of people.

 


COYP

JohnyBoy Flag 07 Jun 16 8.27pm

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

I was talking about the euro sceptic electorate.

Candidates are selected before becoming MP's. They have to toe the party line.

People take more notice of Farage because he has life experience. Many politicians do not.

330,000 net migration every year. That could increase. Although you could argue that demand for labour decides the supply, but that could be at a cost to the native low wage labour market more in the future.

Quality of life isn't just about GDP and economic growth where the benefits in this large corporate system go to the shareholders in at the right time.

It doesn't affect me negatively and I'll say that I'm likely to experience the positives of immigration (any I've met I've liked), but who knows, before I die any crazy policies and cures could result from this unplanned flow of people.

Ok rudi but lets just say that the IMF's worst independent forecast of -9.5% reduction in gdp comes to fruition (and sky news have just broken the news that £65bn has already left the uk economy on brexit fears) this is of the magnitude of the Lehman collapse, who we gonna blame? I too am unaffected by the result (and am politically non-alligned) but that doesnt mean i want to see people losing their jobs and having their homes repossessed.....so do we continue to blame the eu for imposing an extra 5.5billion in tariffs or thd high immigration which is unlikely to fall that much given a leave vote or do we blame the bankers like we always do? or maybe Lord Sugar is right and the uk electorate would be to blame and considered by the rest of the globe to be the worlds "biggest mugs."

 

nickgusset Flag Shizzlehurst 07 Jun 16 9.30pm

Fishface Farage looked rattled on the itv debate. Lots of avoiding the actual questions. Bet Cameron does the same.

 

davenotamonkey Flag 07 Jun 16 10.08pm

Originally posted by nickgusset

Fishface Farage looked rattled on the itv debate. Lots of avoiding the actual questions. Bet Cameron does the same.

Helps if he gets the chance to answer them. Perhaps I was watching on a bad stream, but he was interrupted, in some cases without any right of reply. Terrible moderating - Sky was only marginally better, on both sides.

Why can't Cameron debate head-to-head?

 

Rudi Hedman Flag Caterham 07 Jun 16 10.09pm

Originally posted by nickgusset

Fishface Farage looked rattled on the itv debate. Lots of avoiding the actual questions. Bet Cameron does the same.

I like the way Cameron said he wants to keep reforming the EU after knowing he'd get virtually nothing so went to negotiate nothing. He now stands in front of people and believes if we vote to remain the EU will give him or us more reforms when in actual fact they'll ignore him or finish the meeting after that last agenda item. Someone should've pulled him up on this.

He is full of cr&p. Wants to reduce immigration to under 100,000 and he's euro sceptic for many a year and then later on it's no issue.

 


COYP

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