The Great London House-Price Softening

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The Great London House-Price Softening

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PalazioVecchio south pole 12 Mar 18 10.01am
An interesting article here. When the Bank of England puts up Interest Rates what will the effect be ? Are we looking at a mild softening or are we looking at the beginnings of a 1989-style property crash ? Who are the winners ? who are the losers ? what does it all mean ? [Link] Kayla did Anfield & Old Trafford

PalazioVecchio

south pole 12 Mar 18 10.01am

An interesting article here. When the Bank of England puts up Interest Rates what will the effect be ?

Are we looking at a mild softening or are we looking at the beginnings of a 1989-style property crash ?

Who are the winners ?
who are the losers ?
what does it all mean ?

[Link]

Kayla did Anfield & Old Trafford

Lyons550 Shirley 12 Mar 18 10.58am
The markets been softening for about a year now and will remain flat until after Brexit. We'll likely continue to see a dip/fall for 24months until confidence post brexit starts to gain momentumn again. I'd expect to see a 10-15% slump on current prices. Also many more people are moving out of the city...as such the outlying areas are likely to remain steady and creep up slightly. The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

Lyons550

Shirley 12 Mar 18 10.58am

The markets been softening for about a year now and will remain flat until after Brexit. We'll likely continue to see a dip/fall for 24months until confidence post brexit starts to gain momentumn again.

I'd expect to see a 10-15% slump on current prices.

Also many more people are moving out of the city...as such the outlying areas are likely to remain steady and creep up slightly.

The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

Rudi Hedman Caterham 12 Mar 18 11.17am
Originally posted by Lyons550 The markets been softening for about a year now and will remain flat until after Brexit. We'll likely continue to see a dip/fall for 24months until confidence post brexit starts to gain momentumn again. I'd expect to see a 10-15% slump on current prices. Also many more people are moving out of the city...as such the outlying areas are likely to remain steady and creep up slightly. Many are moving out? Any main reasons or factors? Who's moving in? Just professionals from elsewhere in Britain and the world or nobody and left empty as investments? I do wonder how the trend of moving in will reverse but I suppose London is becoming so gentrified and clean it'll just be different people or at different stages of life. It does make me wonder why some want to live near cafes, bars and restaurants when some have no disposable income to spend. COYP

Rudi Hedman

Caterham 12 Mar 18 11.17am

Originally posted by Lyons550

I'd expect to see a 10-15% slump on current prices.

Also many more people are moving out of the city...as such the outlying areas are likely to remain steady and creep up slightly.

Many are moving out? Any main reasons or factors?

Who's moving in? Just professionals from elsewhere in Britain and the world or nobody and left empty as investments?

I do wonder how the trend of moving in will reverse but I suppose London is becoming so gentrified and clean it'll just be different people or at different stages of life. It does make me wonder why some want to live near cafes, bars and restaurants when some have no disposable income to spend.

COYP

DanH SW2 12 Mar 18 12.04pm
Originally posted by Rudi Hedman Many are moving out? Any main reasons or factors? Who's moving in? Just professionals from elsewhere in Britain and the world or nobody and left empty as investments? I do wonder how the trend of moving in will reverse but I suppose London is becoming so gentrified and clean it'll just be different people or at different stages of life. It does make me wonder why some want to live near cafes, bars and restaurants when some have no disposable income to spend. I've recently moved out of London and quite a few people I know my age have too. I'm early 30s and the main reason was because of house prices. We also moved out to be closer to my fiancée's family but house prices were the main driver.

DanH

SW2 12 Mar 18 12.04pm

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

Many are moving out? Any main reasons or factors?

Who's moving in? Just professionals from elsewhere in Britain and the world or nobody and left empty as investments?

I've recently moved out of London and quite a few people I know my age have too. I'm early 30s and the main reason was because of house prices. We also moved out to be closer to my fiancée's family but house prices were the main driver.

Matov 12 Mar 18 1.08pm
I would label what is happening as more an over-due price correction than crash. All the basics are still pointing to there being more demand than supply and with interest rates so low, investing spare cash in bricks and mortar still makes a lot of sense. And there still remains the strong desire for people to get on the property ladder. Its part of our national DNA, for right or wrong. "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

Matov

12 Mar 18 1.08pm

I would label what is happening as more an over-due price correction than crash. All the basics are still pointing to there being more demand than supply and with interest rates so low, investing spare cash in bricks and mortar still makes a lot of sense.

And there still remains the strong desire for people to get on the property ladder. Its part of our national DNA, for right or wrong.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." - 1984 - George Orwell.

Midlands Eagle 12 Mar 18 1.45pm
Originally posted by Rudi Hedman It does make me wonder why some want to live near cafes, bars and restaurants when some have no disposable income to spend. In 1984 I relocated from Haywards Heath to Newcastle Upon Tyne and recall being told that the uptake of new technology for playing music (the CD player) was far higher in the North East as they had so much more disposable income than impoverished Southerners with their hefty mortgage repayments and season ticket prices. The Bentley dealer in Durham also sold more Bentleys than any other dealership in the UK for similar reasons. Things have obviously changed a great deal since then with the invention of the internet as loads of people now earn their living from the internet and have no reason to be physically tied to one place for work reasons

Midlands Eagle

12 Mar 18 1.45pm

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

It does make me wonder why some want to live near cafes, bars and restaurants when some have no disposable income to spend.

In 1984 I relocated from Haywards Heath to Newcastle Upon Tyne and recall being told that the uptake of new technology for playing music (the CD player) was far higher in the North East as they had so much more disposable income than impoverished Southerners with their hefty mortgage repayments and season ticket prices.

The Bentley dealer in Durham also sold more Bentleys than any other dealership in the UK for similar reasons.

Things have obviously changed a great deal since then with the invention of the internet as loads of people now earn their living from the internet and have no reason to be physically tied to one place for work reasons

dreamwaverider London 12 Mar 18 1.57pm
I sold the last of my bricks and mortar last month as I am expecting a serious slump. This country is looking bleak.

dreamwaverider

London 12 Mar 18 1.57pm

I sold the last of my bricks and mortar last month as I am expecting a serious slump.
This country is looking bleak.

kenners46 sydenham village 12 Mar 18 1.58pm
Give it another 5 or so years and ill be looking at moving out of London, i dont think the prices will drop too much here in Sydenham with the introduction of the Overground a couple of years back.

kenners46

sydenham village 12 Mar 18 1.58pm

Give it another 5 or so years and ill be looking at moving out of London, i dont think the prices will drop too much here in Sydenham with the introduction of the Overground a couple of years back.

Rudi Hedman Caterham 12 Mar 18 1.59pm
Originally posted by Midlands Eagle In 1984 I relocated from Haywards Heath to Newcastle Upon Tyne and recall being told that the uptake of new technology for playing music (the CD player) was far higher in the North East as they had so much more disposable income than impoverished Southerners with their hefty mortgage repayments and season ticket prices. The Bentley dealer in Durham also sold more Bentleys than any other dealership in the UK for similar reasons. Things have obviously changed a great deal since then with the invention of the internet as loads of people now earn their living from the internet and have no reason to be physically tied to one place for work reasons A property portfolio can multiply up north quicker and in most other businesses there was probably less competition to knock anyone successful with capital to play with off their perch, especially in the '80s. Old money isn't the holiday it once was. COYP

Rudi Hedman

Caterham 12 Mar 18 1.59pm

Originally posted by Midlands Eagle

The Bentley dealer in Durham also sold more Bentleys than any other dealership in the UK for similar reasons.

A property portfolio can multiply up north quicker and in most other businesses there was probably less competition to knock anyone successful with capital to play with off their perch, especially in the '80s.

Old money isn't the holiday it once was.

COYP

Rudi Hedman Caterham 12 Mar 18 2.00pm
Where's the favoured distance or general area people are thinking of moving from south London to? COYP

Rudi Hedman

Caterham 12 Mar 18 2.00pm

Where's the favoured distance or general area people are thinking of moving from south London to?

COYP

kenners46 sydenham village 12 Mar 18 2.11pm
Originally posted by Rudi Hedman Where's the favoured distance or general area people are thinking of moving from south London to? I have two locations, one Norfolk and the other Scotland but i think the novelty of Scotland will wear off after a few months

kenners46

sydenham village 12 Mar 18 2.11pm

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

Where's the favoured distance or general area people are thinking of moving from south London to?

I have two locations, one Norfolk and the other Scotland but i think the novelty of Scotland will wear off after a few months

croydon proud Any european country i fancy! 12 Mar 18 6.18pm
Originally posted by dreamwaverider I sold the last of my bricks and mortar last month as I am expecting a serious slump. This country is looking bleak. Bleak indeed!

croydon proud

Any european country i fancy! 12 Mar 18 6.18pm

Originally posted by dreamwaverider

I sold the last of my bricks and mortar last month as I am expecting a serious slump.
This country is looking bleak.

Bleak indeed!

.TUX. 12 Mar 18 6.51pm
Originally posted by Lyons550 The markets been softening for about a year now and will remain flat until after Brexit. We'll likely continue to see a dip/fall for 24months until confidence post brexit starts to gain momentumn again. I'd expect to see a 10-15% slump on current prices. Also many more people are moving out of the city...as such the outlying areas are likely to remain steady and creep up slightly. This slowdown would be happening regardless. Brexit is an irrelevance, despite what the media pump. People are skint........and (unfortunately) will be for a very long while. Buy Litecoin.

.TUX.

12 Mar 18 6.51pm

Originally posted by Lyons550

I'd expect to see a 10-15% slump on current prices.

Also many more people are moving out of the city...as such the outlying areas are likely to remain steady and creep up slightly.

This slowdown would be happening regardless. Brexit is an irrelevance, despite what the media pump.
People are skint........and (unfortunately) will be for a very long while.

Buy Litecoin.

Penge Eagle Beckenham 12 Mar 18 7.32pm
We are just entering the mid-cycle wobble of the 18-year property cycle. Perfectly normal. Edited by Penge Eagle (12 Mar 2018 7.58pm)

Penge Eagle

Beckenham 12 Mar 18 7.32pm

We are just entering the mid-cycle wobble of the 18-year property cycle. Perfectly normal.

Edited by Penge Eagle (12 Mar 2018 7.58pm)

johnfirewall 12 Mar 18 7.55pm
Brexiteers, because it will be our fault.

johnfirewall

12 Mar 18 7.55pm

Brexiteers, because it will be our fault.

Lyons550 Shirley 13 Mar 18 2.12pm
Originally posted by Rudi Hedman Where's the favoured distance or general area people are thinking of moving from south London to? See my thread of moving up North that I posted a few weeks back.... i'm seriously looking into it myself [Link] The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

Lyons550

Shirley 13 Mar 18 2.12pm

Originally posted by Rudi Hedman

Where's the favoured distance or general area people are thinking of moving from south London to?

See my thread of moving up North that I posted a few weeks back.... i'm seriously looking into it myself

[Link]

The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

Lyons550 Shirley 13 Mar 18 2.15pm
Originally posted by .TUX. This slowdown would be happening regardless. Brexit is an irrelevance, despite what the media pump. People are skint........and (unfortunately) will be for a very long while. You're right in that we're at the pint in the Property cycle where we'd anticpate a plateau, before a brief surge towards the bubble burst (historical evidence suggests this) but with the added curveball of Brexit it's brought that plateau forward by a couple of years. The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

Lyons550

Shirley 13 Mar 18 2.15pm

Originally posted by .TUX.

This slowdown would be happening regardless. Brexit is an irrelevance, despite what the media pump.
People are skint........and (unfortunately) will be for a very long while.

You're right in that we're at the pint in the Property cycle where we'd anticpate a plateau, before a brief surge towards the bubble burst (historical evidence suggests this) but with the added curveball of Brexit it's brought that plateau forward by a couple of years.

The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

Lyons550 Shirley 13 Mar 18 2.15pm
Originally posted by Penge Eagle We are just entering the mid-cycle wobble of the 18-year property cycle. Perfectly normal. Edited by Penge Eagle (12 Mar 2018 7.58pm) Apologies Penge, didnt see this prior to my post above...yes I make you right The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

Lyons550

Shirley 13 Mar 18 2.15pm

Originally posted by Penge Eagle

We are just entering the mid-cycle wobble of the 18-year property cycle. Perfectly normal.

Edited by Penge Eagle (12 Mar 2018 7.58pm)

Apologies Penge, didnt see this prior to my post above...yes I make you right

The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

JRW2 Dulwich 14 Mar 18 3.32pm
I would love the value of my house to drop back to what I paid for it in 1981, so that my children, who lived in it throughout childhood and adolescence, could inherit it without having to sell it in order to pay a fortune in Inheritance Tax. I suspect many will have no sympathy for me - or my children.

JRW2

Dulwich 14 Mar 18 3.32pm

I would love the value of my house to drop back to what I paid for it in 1981, so that my children, who lived in it throughout childhood and adolescence, could inherit it without having to sell it in order to pay a fortune in Inheritance Tax. I suspect many will have no sympathy for me - or my children.

Lyons550 Shirley 18 Mar 18 2.43pm
Originally posted by JRW2 I would love the value of my house to drop back to what I paid for it in 1981, so that my children, who lived in it throughout childhood and adolescence, could inherit it without having to sell it in order to pay a fortune in Inheritance Tax. I suspect many will have no sympathy for me - or my children. You could always sign it over to them in order that inheritance isn't an issue...having said that its only an issue if you leave more than £400k... The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

Lyons550

Shirley 18 Mar 18 2.43pm

Originally posted by JRW2

You could always sign it over to them in order that inheritance isn't an issue...having said that its only an issue if you leave more than £400k...

The Voice of Reason In An Otherwise Mediocre World

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