As an extension my original post, not really a reason that we'll stay up but maybe something positive that could come of this.

In previous seasons we've seen young players flourish when given a chance because Roy has had no other option, such as AWB and Mitchell.

I still believe that Franca, Ahamada and Ozoh, in particular, have something to offer. I realise Roy would rather crawl through fire than play them ordinarily but we're getting to a point where Schlupp can only play so many positions at once.

If he goes against everything we know about him and says "f*** it" and throws them into the starting line up, maybe at least one of them will step up and prove his worth. At the very least, they'll by motivated to prove a point.

I am clutching at straws at this point, admittedly.

We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the drugs began to take hold...

We have 15 games left to play. We've only managed 3 wins and 3 draws in our last 15 and we had Eze and Olise for the last 2 wins. in other words we had one win in that run without the two of them being on the pitch and that one win (Burnley) saw Eze come on for the last 30 minutes to provide the assist for Mitchell's last minute goal.

If we look at the 15 games to come and the results in the reverse fixtures earlier this season, we had

- 2 wins v Wolves (h) and Man U (away)
- 4 draws v Fulham (h), Forest (h), West Ham (away) and Man C (away)
- 9 (yes NINE) defeats.

I'm sorry but, with our best 4 players out for the next month at least and two of them likely not to feature again this season, I'm not at all sure from where you, and those who say we'll survive with Hodgson still in charge, think we're going to get the necessary points.

Edited by doombear (07 Feb 2024 3.31pm)

Eze and olise, oh no they're both injured again

I used to be an odds compiler for a few of the big bookies and, although things might seem absolutely hopeless right now, we really are nowhere nearly as likely to go down as people think, as the odds reflect.

First of all we're only 8/1 at one bookmaker and are as short as 5/1 elsewhere. That means that the bookies rate us between 11% and 16% to go down as a range.

As fans, our tendency is to automatically see the worst case scenario. We've won twice in 12 games, have key injuries etc.

From a neutral perspective, though, you could say that after 11 games we were 9 points clear of relegation and, despite our terrible form, we're still five points clear 12 grim games later.

That doesn't suggest that the clubs below us are tearing up trees so much that a few wins wouldn't put us safe.

Additionally you could argue that those two wins have actually come in our last four games. Obviously getting battered by Arsenal and Brighton either side of them is what sticks out but, based on that four game run, winning alternate games is more than enough to stay up. In fact we've only lost 3 of our last 7 overall.

They'll also acknowledge that, despite our key injuries at the moment, we still have several players in our first team that would walk into sides below us.

Finally, as I mentioned in my opening post, they'll factor in that we have some winnable games approaching before a horrible end to the season. If we don't get points from them, then expect those odds to tumble quickly.

So basically, the odds are probably about right however bad things might seem. It's odds on next manager markets that you want to ignore as they are genuinely absolute guesswork, regardless of how many people think they have inside knowledge. They truly don't.

Edited by Canterbury Palace (08 Feb 2024 1.06pm)

We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the drugs began to take hold...

Since gaining promotion we have been in similar situations and survived although this year has a more sinister feel.

The task on paper seems easy to just win 4 more games(we have actually won 2 out of last 4) but our eyes and brains tell us something different based on player, management and board commitment!

I think we will survive and Parish can push the reset button albeit 1 year too late!

3) Points deductions. The possibility of points deductions to Everton and or Forest could be enough to finish one of them off at a key point to the season.

I hope so